BEIJING Chinas economic growth in 2022 slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly half a century as the fourth quarter was hit hard by stringent Covid-19 curbs and a property market slump, raising pressure on policymakers to unveil more stimulus this year.
The quarterly growth and some of the December indicators such as retail sales beat market expectations, but analysts noted that the overall economic impulse across China remained weak and highlighted the challenges facing Beijing after it abruptly dropped its zero-Covid policy last month.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.9 per cent in the October-to-December period from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday, slower than the third quarters 3.9 per cent pace. The rate still exceeded the second quarters 0.4 per cent expansion and market expectations of a 1.8 per cent gain.
Beijings sudden relaxation of stringent anti-virus measures has boosted expectations of an economic revival this year, but it has also led to a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases that economists say might hamper near-term growth. A property slump and weak global demand also mean a rebound in growth will be heavily reliant on shell-shocked consumers.
Chinas 2023 will be bumpy; not only will it have to navigate the threat of new Covid-19 waves, but the countrys worsening residential property market and weak global demand for its exports will also be significant brakes, Mr Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moodys Analytics, said in a note.
For 2022, GDP expanded 3 per cent, badly missing the official target of around 5.5 per cent and braking sharply from the 8.4 per cent growth in 2021. Excluding the 2.2 per cent expansion after the initial Covid-19 wave hit in 2020, it is the worst showing since 1976 the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy.
Asian shares dropped after the Chinese data, while the renminbi skidded to a one-week low.
Activity data in December surprised broadly to the upside but remains weak, particularly across demand-side segments such as retail spending, Ms Louise Loo, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note.
(The) data so far supports our long-held view that Chinas reopening boost will be somewhat anaemic at the beginning, with consumer spending being a key laggard in the initial stages.
A Reuters poll forecast growth to rebound to 4.9 per cent in 2023 as Chinese leaders move to tackle some key drags on growth the zero-Covid policy and a severe property sector downturn. Most economists expect growth to pick up in the second quarter.
On a quarterly basis, GDP stalled, coming in at zero growth in the fourth quarter, compared with growth of 3.9 per cent in July to September, highlighting underlying weakness across many sectors.
Beijings lifting of Covid-19 curbs has seen businesses struggling with surging infections, suggesting a bumpy recovery in the near term.
The ongoing exit wave on the back of Chinas faster-than-expected reopening has taken a heavy toll on economic activity in recent months due to surging infections, a temporary labour shortage and supply chain disruptions, economists at Goldman Sachs said, noting the annual contractions in output of both steel products and cement in December.
Factory output grew 1.3 per cent in December from a year earlier, slowing from the 2.2 per cent rise in November, while retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, shrank 1.8 per cent last month, extending Novembers 5.9 per cent drop. More On This Topic Chinas population shrinks for first time in over 60 years Chinas boost for flagging world economy looms as reopening starts Chinas top leaders have pledged to prioritise consumption expansion to support domestic demand and the broad economy this year, at a time when local exporters struggle in the wake of global recession risks. The central bank is also expected to steadily ease policy this year.
China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5 per cent in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said.
Chinas property industry was among the biggest drags on growth. Investment in the sector fell 10 per cent year on year in 2022, the first decline since records began in 1999, and property sales slumped the most since 1992, NBS data showed, suggesting that government support measures were having minimal impact so far.
The authorities have rolled out a flurry of support policies targeting home buyers and property developers in recent weeks to relieve a long-running liquidity squeeze that has hit developers and delayed the completion of many housing projects.
Adding to the challenges facing the economy and the government, Chinas population in 2022 fell for the first time since 1961, the NBS data showed, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers and see India become the worlds most populous nation in 2023.
The population will likely trend down from here in the coming years. This is very important, with implications for potential growth and domestic demand, said Pinpoint Asset Management chief economist Zhang Zhiwei.
Going forward, demographics will be a headwind. Economic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth, which is driven by government policies. REUTERS More On This Topic China exports and imports tumble sharply in December, cloud 2023 growth outlook Xis plan to reset Chinas economy and win back friends
Marks & Spencer (M&S) has ordered hundreds of agency workers at its main distribution centre to stay at home as it grapples with the unfolding impact of a cyberattack on Britain’s best-known retailer.
Sky News has learnt that roughly 200 people who had been due to undertake shift work at M&S’s vast Castle Donington clothing and homewares logistics centre in the East Midlands have been told not to come in amid the escalating crisis.
Agency staff make up about 20% of Castle Donington’s workforce, according to a source close to M&S.
The retailer’s own employees who work at the site have been told to come in as usual, the source added.
“There is work for them to do,” they said.
M&S disclosed last week that it was suspending online orders as a result of the cyberattack, but has provided few other details about the nature and extent of the incident.
In its latest update to investors, the company said on Friday that its product range was “available to browse online, and our stores remain open and ready to welcome and serve customers”.
“We continue to manage the incident proactively and the M&S team – supported by leading experts – is working extremely hard to restore online operations and continue to serve customers well,” it added.
It was unclear on Monday how long the disruption to M&S’s e-commerce operations would last, although retail executives said the cyberattack was “extensive” and that it could take the company some time to fully resolve its impact.
Shares in M&S slid a further 2.4% on Monday morning, following a sharp fall last week, as investors reacted to the absence of positive news about the incident.
The conclave to elect Pope Francis’s successor will begin on 7 May, the Vatican has announced.
Some 135 cardinal electors – those under the age of 80 – will take part and vote for the new pontiff.
The rituals of the event, held in the Sistine Chapel, are elaborate and date back centuries. So how does the process work?
When Pope Francis died, the Catholic Church entered a period known as “sede vacante”, meaning “empty seat”.
His ring and seal – used to dispatch papal documents – were broken to prevent anyone else from using them.
Cardinal Kevin Farrell – the Camerlengo, or chamberlain, who announced Francis’s death – became the interim chief of the Catholic Church.
Image: Pic: Reuters
The conclave
Cardinals travel to Rome from all over the world and stay until a new pope is chosen.
Of the 252 current ones, there are 135 cardinal electors: 53 from Europe; 23 from Asia; 20 from North America; 18 from Africa; 17 from South America; and four from Oceania.
Italy has the most cardinals who can vote, with 17, while the US has 10 and Brazil has seven. The UK has three.
Image: A papal crest dedicated to Pope Pius XII. Pic: Reuters
Once the conclave begins, the cardinals will not emerge from the Vatican until a new pope has been chosen. The word “conclave” comes from Latin, meaning “with key” – a reference to the isolation in which the cardinals are kept.
While holding voting sessions in the Sistine Chapel, they sleep in the Casa Santa Marta – a guesthouse inside the Vatican’s grounds.
The longest conclave lasted almost three years, between 1268 and 1271. Several have lasted only one day. The one which elected Pope John Paul in 1978 lasted less than three days. Cardinals chose Pope Francis in around two days.
While the conclave is ongoing, cardinals are unable to communicate with the outside world. No telephones, internet use or newspapers are allowed.
Except for the first day, when only one ballot is held, the cardinals hold two daily votes until one candidate has a majority of two-thirds plus one. They are sworn to secrecy about the voting.
White smoke?
So how do we know if a decision has been reached? Yes, this is the black smoke, white smoke part.
If the cardinals have not reached a majority, the cards and the tally sheets are placed in a stove and burned with an additive to produce black smoke, showing the outside world that a pope has not yet been chosen.
Image: No pope yet… black smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel. Pic: Reuters
Watching for the tell-tale smoke arising from the top of the Sistine Chapel is a tradition, with Catholics crowding into St Peter’s Square for the spectacle.
If no result has been reached after three days, the sessions are suspended for a day to allow for prayer and discussion. More ballots are held until a two-thirds majority is reached.
When enough cardinals have agreed on a candidate, he is asked if he accepts the papacy and by which name he wishes to be known.
The ballots are burned as before, but with an additive to produce white smoke.
Image: A Papal white skull cap. Pic: Reuters
New pope proclaimed
The new pope then dons his new papal vestments – tailors keep large, medium and small sizes ready – and sits on a throne in the Sistine Chapel to receive the other cardinals who file up to pay homage and swear obedience to the church’s new leader.
The senior cardinal deacon then steps out on to the central balcony of St Peter’s Basilica overlooking the square and announces in Latin: “Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum. Habemus Papam” (I announce to you a great joy. We have a pope) and reveals the cardinal’s name and the name he has chosen.
A 14-year-old girl who attempted to murder two teachers and a pupil at a school in Wales has been sentenced to 15 years in detention.
The girl, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was previouslyfound guilty of attempting to murder teachers Fiona Elias and Liz Hopkin and a pupil at Ysgol Dyffryn Aman in Ammanford.
Emergency services were called to the school on 24 April last year, in what the trial heard was a “serious episode of violence” during the mid-morning break after the girl took her father’s fishing “multi-tool” to school.
She had admitted to three counts of wounding with intent and possession of a bladed article on a school premises, but a jury found her guilty of attempted murder in February after a week-long trial.
Following her arrest, the teenager told officers she was “pretty sure” the incident would be on the news, and added “that’s one way to be a celebrity”.
Both Mrs Elias and Mrs Hopkin “received significant and serious injuries”, Swansea Crown Court heard.
Mrs Hopkin was airlifted to the University Hospital of Wales in Cardiff after she sustained “four stab wounds”, while Mrs Elias and the pupil also attended hospital for treatment.
Image: Ammanford in Carmarthenshire
‘Changed my life forever’
Reading her victim personal statement from the witness box on Monday, Fiona Elias said the incident had shown her that life was “fragile” and had been “a steep learning curve”.
“Walking out on duty that day would change my life forever,” she said – a moment which “replays itself over and over no matter how much time passes”.
“It’s not easy, and I know I’ll continue to face challenges, but every day I’m taking step towards healing,” Mrs Elias said.
Addressing the defendant, Mrs Elias said “your motive was clear, you intended to murder me” but that she was stopped “thanks to Liz’s selfless actions”.
She said she was not “ruling out the possibility of a meeting with [the pupil] in the future,” but that she first needed to know she would “engage with the interventions that will be put in place”.
Outlining her plans to campaign for safer working conditions at schools, Mrs Elias said: “I never expected to give my blood, but I will always give my heart to Ysgol Dyffryn Aman and to the world of education.”
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The teenager, who can’t be named, is due to be sentenced in April.
‘Right place at the right time’
Liz Hopkin said it had been “the worst experience of [her] life” but that she was “glad” she was “in the right place at the right time” to protect Mrs Elias.
“I’m still here, I’m still alive, though at the time I was sure that I was going to die,” she told the court.
“Physically, my wounds have healed but the scars remain.”
Mrs Hopkin added that the thought of returning to a career in teaching now filled her with “anxiety and dread”.
“You were prepared to kill someone you did not know,” she said, addressing the defendant, who sat in the court for proceedings, until she moved to the dock for sentence.
“The decision to end my life was never yours to make.”
But Mrs Hopkin said she worried about the defendant’s future, adding: “I don’t want you to be punished forever but I do want you to take every opportunity to make your life better.”
Concluding her victim personal statement, Mrs Hopkin said: “It has changed me in ways I never wanted and that is something I will have to live with for the rest of my life.”
Image: Pic: PA
‘Very complex young girl’
Prosecuting, William Hughes KC said aggravating factors in the case included use of a knife, the fact two of the victims were “carrying out a public service” and that the offending took place in public.
In mitigation, Caroline Rees KC said the defendant was “a very complex young girl”.
She said she had shown remorse, had a “difficult background” and also the fact there were two trials.
Handing down his sentence, Judge Paul Thomas said the defendant would serve half of the 15-year sentence before she can be considered for release.
Addressing the defendant, he said: “What you did in school almost a year ago the day has caused a large number of people a great deal of harm and upset. It has hugely affected many lives, including, of course, your own.”
“The simple fact is you tried to kill three people, two teachers and another pupil,” he added.
“I think that it is very important here that what you did you did in full of so many other pupils…In my view you wanted as many of your fellow pupils as possible to see what you intended to do.”
The Judge added that “for one reason or other, [the defendant wasn’t] really listening” to the victim impact statements of Mrs Elias and Mrs Hopkin.
He said he did not think the teenager was “genuinely sorry” for what she did, adding: “You showed no emption or even interest in how they felt that day or ever since.”