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The below is an excerpt from a recent year-ahead report written by the Bitcoin Magazine PRO analysts. Download the entire report here.

Bitcoin Magazine PRO sees incredibly strong fundamentals in the Bitcoin network and we are laser-focused on its market dynamic in the context of macroeconomic trends. Bitcoin aims to become the world reserve currency, an investment opportunity that cannot be understated.

In our year-ahead report, we analyzed seven notable factors that we recommend investors pay attention to in the coming months.Convicted Bitcoin Investors

We can put investor conviction into perspective by looking at the number of unique Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.01, 0.1 and 1 bitcoin. This data shows that bitcoin adoption continues to grow with a growing number of unique addresses holding at least these amounts of bitcoin. While it is entirely possible for individual users to hold their bitcoin in multiple addresses, the growth of unique Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.01, 0.1 and 1 bitcoin indicate that more users than ever before are buying bitcoin and holding it in self-custody.

Unique bitcoin addresses continues to grow across the board.

Another promising metric is the amount held by long-term holders, which has increased to almost 14 million bitcoin. Long-term holder supply is calculated using a threshold of a 155-day holding period, after which dormant coins become increasingly unlikely to be spent. As of now, 72.49% of the bitcoin in circulation is not likely to be sold at these prices.

Long-term holder supply reached 72.52% of the circulating bitcoin supply.

There is a large subset of bitcoin investors who are accumulating the digital asset no matter the price. In a December 2022 interview on “Going Digital,” Head of Market Research Dylan LeClair said, “You have people all over the world that are acquiring this asset and you have a huge and growing cohort of people that are price-agnostic accumulators.”

With a growing number of unique addresses holding bitcoin and such a significant amount of bitcoin being held by long-term investors, we are optimistic for bitcoin’s advancement and rate of adoption. There are many variables that demonstrate the potential for asymmetric returns as demand for bitcoin increases and adoption increases worldwide.Total Addressable Market

During monetization, a currency goes through three phases in order: store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account. Bitcoin is currently in its store-of-value phase as demonstrated by the long-term holder metrics above. Other assets that are frequently used as stores of value are real estate, gold and equities. Bitcoin is a better store of value for many reasons: it is more liquid, easier to access, transport and secure, easier to audit and more finitely scarce than any other asset with its hard-cap limit of 21 million coins. For bitcoin to acquire a larger share of other global stores of value, these properties need to remain intact and prove themselves in the eyes of investors.

Estimations of global stores of wealth.

As readers can see, bitcoin is a tiny fraction of global wealth. Should bitcoin take even a 1% share from these other stores of value, the market cap would be $5.9 trillion, putting bitcoin at over $300,000 per coin. These are conservative numbers from our viewpoint because we estimate that bitcoin adoption will happen gradually, and then suddenly.Transfer Volume

When looking at the amount of value that was cleared on the Bitcoin network throughout its history, there is a clear upward trend in USD terms with a heightened demand for transferring bitcoin this year. In 2022, there was a change-adjusted transfer volume of over 556 million bitcoin settled on the Bitcoin network, up 102% from 2021. In USD terms, the Bitcoin network settled just shy of $15 trillion in value in 2022. 

Bitcoin transfer volume was higher than ever in USD terms.

Bitcoin’s censorship resistance is an extremely valuable feature as the world enters into a period of deglobalization. With a market capitalization of only $324 billion, we believe bitcoin is severely undervalued. Despite the drop in price, the Bitcoin network transferred more value in USD terms than ever before.Rare Opportunity In Bitcoin’s Price

By looking at certain metrics, we can analyze the unique opportunity investors have to purchase bitcoin at these prices. The bitcoin realized market cap is down 18.8% from all-time highs, which is the second-largest drawdown in its history. While the macroeconomic factors are something to keep in mind, we believe that this is a rare buying opportunity.

The realized cap drawdown in 2022 was the second largest in bitcoin's history.

Relative to its history, bitcoin is at the phase of the cycle where it’s about as cheap as it gets. Its current market exchange rate is approximately 20% lower than its average cost basis on-chain, which has only happened at or near the local bottom of bitcoin market cycles.

Current prices of bitcoin are in rare territory for investors looking to get in at a low exchange rate. Historically, purchasing bitcoin during these times has brought tremendous returns in the long term. With that said, readers should consider the reality that 2023 likely brings about bitcoin’s first experience with a prolonged economic recession.Macroeconomic Environment

As we move into 2023, it’s necessary to recognize the state of the geopolitical landscape because macro is the driving force behind economic growth. People around the world are experiencing a monetary policy lag effect from last year’s central bank decisions. The U.S. and EU are in recessionary territory, China is proceeding to de-dollarize and the Bank of Japan raised its target rate for yield curve control. All of these have a large influence on capital markets.

Nothing in financial markets occurs in a vacuum. Bitcoin’s ascent through 2020 and 2021 — while similar to previous crypto-native market cycles — was very much tied to the explosion of liquidity sloshing around the financial system after COVID. While 2020 and 2021 was characterized by the insertion of additional liquidity, 2022 has been characterized by the removal of liquidity.

Interestingly enough, when denominating bitcoin against U.S. Treasury bonds (which we believe to be bitcoin’s largest theoretical competitor for monetary value over the long term), comparing the drawdown during 2022 was rather benign compared to drawdowns in bitcoin’s history. 

As we wrote in “The Everything Bubble: Markets At A Crossroads,” “Despite the recent bounce in stocks and bonds, we aren’t convinced that we have seen the worst of the deflationary pressures from the global liquidity cycle.”

In “The Bank of Japan Blinks And Markets Tremble,” we noted, “As we continue to refer to the sovereign debt bubble, readers should understand what this dramatic upward repricing in global yields means for asset prices. As bond yields remain at elevated levels far above recent years, asset valuations based on discounted cash flows fall.” Bitcoin does not rely on cash flows, but it will certainly be impacted by this repricing of global yields. We believe we are currently at the third bullet point of the following playing out:

Source: Dylan LeClairBitcoin Mining And Infrastructure

While the multitude of negative industry and worrying macroeconomic factors have had a major dampening on bitcoin’s price, looking at the metrics of the Bitcoin network itself tell another story. The hash rate and mining difficulty gives a glimpse into how many ASICs are dedicating hashing power to the network and how competitive it is to mine bitcoin. These numbers move in tandem and both have almost exclusively gone up in 2022, despite the significant drop in price.

Bitcoin mining difficulty continues to rise.

Bitcoin hash rate continues to rise.

By deploying more machines and investing in expanded infrastructure, bitcoin miners demonstrate that they are more bullish than ever. The last time the bitcoin price was in a similar range in 2017, the network hash rate was one-fifth of current levels. This means that there has been a fivefold increase in bitcoin mining machines being plugged in and efficiency upgrades to the machines themselves, not to mention the major investments in facilities and data centers to house the equipment.

Because the hash rate increased while the bitcoin price decreased, miner revenue took a beating this year after a euphoric rise in 2021. Public miner stock valuations followed the same path with valuations falling even more than the bitcoin price, all while the Bitcoin network’s hash rate continued to rise. In the “State Of The Mining Industry: Survival Of The Fittest,” we looked at the total market capitalization of public miners which fell by over 90% since January 2021.

The market cap of all public mining equities has dropped by 9

We expect more of these companies to face challenging conditions because of the skyrocketing global energy prices and interest rates mentioned above.Increasing Scarcity

One way to analyze bitcoin’s scarcity is by looking at the illiquid supply of coins. Liquidity is quantified as the extent to which an entity spends their bitcoin. Someone that never sells has a liquidity value of 0 whereas someone who buys and sells bitcoin all the time has a value of 1. With this quantification, circulating supply can be broken down into three categories: highly liquid, liquid and illiquid supply.

Illiquid supply is defined as entities that hold over 75% of the bitcoin they deposit to an address. Highly liquid supply is defined as entities that hold less than 25%. Liquid supply is between the two. This illiquid supply quantification and analysis was developed by Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder and CTO of Glassnode.

Bitcoin's illiquid supply continues to grow.

2022 was the year of getting bitcoin off exchanges. Every recent major panic became a catalyst for more individuals and institutions to move coins into their own custody, find custody solutions outside of exchanges or sell off their bitcoin entirely. When centralized institutions and counterparty risks are flashing red, people rush for the exit. We can see some of this behavior through bitcoin outflows from exchanges.

In 2022, 572,118 bitcoin worth $9.6 billion left exchanges, marking it the largest annual outflow of bitcoin in BTC terms in history. In USD terms, it was second only to 2020, which was driven by the March 2020 COVID crash. 11.68% of bitcoin supply is now estimated to be on exchanges, down from 16.88% back in 2019. 

Exchanges saw a massive decrease in the bitcoin balances on their platforms.

Bitcoin balance on exchanges decreased in 2022.

These metrics of an increasingly illiquid supply paired with historic amounts of bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges — ostensibly being removed from the market — paint a different picture than what we’re seeing with the factors outside of the Bitcoin network’s purview. While there are unanswered questions from a macroeconomic perspective, bitcoin miners continue to invest in equipment and on-chain data shows that bitcoin holders aren’t planning to relinquish their bitcoin anytime soon.Conclusion

The varying factors detailed above give a picture for why we are long-term bullish on the bitcoin price going into 2023. The Bitcoin network continues to add another block approximately every 10 minutes, more miners keep investing in infrastructure by plugging in machines and long-term holders are unwavering in their conviction, as shown by on-chain data.

With bitcoin’s ever-increasing scarcity, the supply side of this equation is fixed, while demand is likely to increase. Bitcoin investors can get ahead of the demand curve by averaging in while the price is low. It’s important for investors to take the time to learn how Bitcoin works to fully understand what it is they are investing in. Bitcoin is the first digitally native and finitely scarce bearer asset. We recommend readers learn about self-custody and withdraw their bitcoin from exchanges. Despite the negative news cycle and drop in bitcoin price, our bullish conviction for bitcoin’s long-term value proposition remains unfazed.

For the full report, follow this link to subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine PRO.

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Entertainment

BBC and Channel 4 should ‘merge’ to survive, Sir Phil Redmond says

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BBC and Channel 4 should 'merge' to survive, Sir Phil Redmond says

One of Britain’s most legendary TV dramatists, Sir Phil Redmond, is no stranger to tackling difficult issues on screen.

Courting controversy famously with his hard-hitting storylines on his children’s show Grange Hill for the BBC in 1978, before he switched over to Channel 4 to give it its two most prominent soaps, Brookside (1982) and later Hollyoaks (1995).

He’s been a pivotal figure at Channel 4 from its inception, widely considered to be a father to the channel.

Sir Phil Redmond says the BBC and Channel 4 should team up to survive
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Sir Phil Redmond says the BBC and Channel 4 should team up to survive

While he’s been responsible for putting some of TV’s most impactful storylines to air for them – from the first lesbian kiss, to bodies buried under patios – off-screen nowadays, he’s equally radical about what should happen.

“Channel 4’s job in 1980 was to provide a platform for the voices, ideas, and people that weren’t able to break through into television. They did a fantastic job. I was part of that, and now it’s done.”

It’s not that he wants to kill off Channel 4 but – as broadcasting bosses gather for Edinburgh’s annual TV Festival – he believes they urgently should be talking about mergers.

A suggestion which goes down about as well as you might imagine, he says, when he brings it up with those at the top.

He laughs: “The people with the brains think it’s a good idea, the people who’ve got the expense accounts think it’s horrendous.”

Some of the original Grange Hill cast collecting a BAFTA special award in 2001. Pic: Shutterstock
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Some of the original Grange Hill cast collecting a BAFTA special award in 2001. Pic: Shutterstock

A ‘struggling’ BBC trying to ‘survive’

With charter renewal talks under way to determine the BBC’s future funding, Sir Phil says “there’s only one question, and that is what’s going to happen to the BBC?”

“We’ve got two public sector broadcasters – the BBC and Channel 4 – both owned by the government, by us as the taxpayers, and what they’re trying to do now is survive, right?

“No bureaucracy ever deconstructs itself… the BBC is struggling… Channel 4 has got about a billion quid coming in a year. If you mix that, all the transmissions, all the back office stuff, all the technical stuff, all that cash… you can keep that kind of coterie of expertise on youth programming and then say ‘don’t worry about the money, just go out and do what you used to do, upset people!’.”

Brookside's lesbian kiss between Margaret and Beth (L-R Nicola Stapleton and Anna Friel) was groundbreaking TV. Pic: Shutterstock
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Brookside’s lesbian kiss between Margaret and Beth (L-R Nicola Stapleton and Anna Friel) was groundbreaking TV. Pic: Shutterstock

How feasible would that be?

Redmond claims, practically, you could pull it off in a week – “we could do it now, it’s very simple, it’s all about keyboards and switches”.

But the screenwriter admits that winning people over mentally to his way of thinking would take a few years of persuading.

As for his thoughts on what could replace the BBC licence fee, he says charging people to download BBC apps on their phones seems like an obvious source of income.

“There are 25 million licences and roughly 90 million mobile phones. If you put a small levy on each mobile phone, you could reduce the actual cost of the licence fee right down, and then it could just be tagged on to VAT.

“Those parts are just moving the tax system around a bit. [then] you wouldn’t have to worry about all the criminality and single mothers being thrown in jail, all this kind of nonsense.”

Original Brookside stars at BAFTA - L:R: Michael Starke, Dean Sullivan, Claire Sweeney and Sue Jenkins. Pic: PA
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Original Brookside stars at BAFTA – L:R: Michael Starke, Dean Sullivan, Claire Sweeney and Sue Jenkins. Pic: PA

‘Subsidising through streaming is not the answer’

Earlier this year, Peter Kosminsky, the director of historical drama Wolf Hall, suggested a levy on UK streaming revenues could fund more high-end British TV on the BBC.

Sir Phil describes that as “a sign of desperation”.

“If you can’t actually survive within your own economic basis, you shouldn’t be doing it.

“I don’t think top slicing or subsidising one aspect of the business is the answer, you have to just look at the whole thing as a totality.”

Mark Rylance (L) and Damian Lewis in Wolf Hall: The Mirror And The Light. Pic: BBC
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Mark Rylance (L) and Damian Lewis in Wolf Hall: The Mirror And The Light. Pic: BBC

Since selling his production company, Mersey Television, two decades ago, much of his current work has focused on acting as an ambassador for the culture and creative industries.

Although he’s taken a step away from television, he admits he’s disappointed by how risk-averse programme makers appear to have become.

“Dare I say it? There needs to be an intellectual foundation to it all.”

The Hollyoaks cast in 1995. Pic: Shutterstock
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The Hollyoaks cast in 1995. Pic: Shutterstock

TV’s ‘missing a trick’

He believes TV bosses are too scared of being fined by Ofcom, and that’s meant soaps are not going as far as they should.

“The benefits [system], you know, immigration, all these things are really relevant subjects for drama to bring out all the arguments, the conflicts.

“The majority of the people know the benefits system is broken, that it needs to be fixed because they see themselves living on their estate with a 10 or 12-year-old car and then there’s someone else down the road who knows how to fill a form in, and he’s driving around in a £65k BMW, right? Those debates would be really great to bring out on TV, they’re missing a trick.”

While some of TV’s biggest executives are slated to speak at the Edinburgh Television Festival, Redmond is not convinced they will be open to listening.

“They will go where the perceived wisdom is as to where the industry is going. The fact that the industry is taking a wrong turn, we really need somebody else to come along and go ‘Oi!'”

When I ask if that could be him, he laughs. Cue dramatic music and closing credits. As plot twists go, the idea of one of TV’s most radical voices making a boardroom comeback to stir the pot, realistic or not, is at the very least food for thought for the industry.

Edinburgh TV Festival runs from 19 – 22 August.

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Noel Gallagher praises ‘amazing’ Liam for Oasis reunion tour

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Noel Gallagher praises 'amazing' Liam for Oasis reunion tour

Noel Gallagher has said he is “proud” of his brother Liam after the pair reunited for this summer’s Oasis Live ’25 tour.

The highly anticipated reunion was announced in August last year, after the brothers seemingly put the feud which led to their split in 2009 behind them.

At the time, Noel said he “simply could not go on working with Liam”, but having just completed the UK-leg of their comeback tour, he has nothing but praise for his younger sibling.

“Liam’s smashing it. I’m proud of him,” Noel told talkSport in his first interview since the tour began.

“I couldn’t do the stadium thing like he does it, it’s not in my nature. But I’ve got to say, I kind of look and I think ‘good for you, mate’. He’s been amazing.

“It’s great just to be back with Bonehead [Paul Arthurs] and Liam and just be doing it again.”

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‘We need each other’: Oasis back on stage

When asked if he has felt emotional during the tour, Noel added: “I guess when it’s all said and done we will sit and reflect on it, but it’s great being back in the band with Liam, I forgot how funny he was.”

He went on to say he was “completely blown away” after the band’s opening night in Cardiff, and “grossly underestimated” what he was getting himself into when first signing up for the shows.

Fans in Manchester don Oasis merch. Pic: Reuters
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Fans in Manchester don Oasis merch. Pic: Reuters

The brothers at Wembley, London. Pic: Lewis Evans
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The brothers at Wembley, London. Pic: Lewis Evans

He said: “It was kind of after about five minutes, I was like, ‘all right, can I just go back to the dressing room and start this again?’

“I’ve done stadiums before and all that, but I don’t mind telling you, my legs had turned to jelly after about halfway through the second song.”

Pic: Big Brother Recordings
Image:
Pic: Big Brother Recordings

“Every night is the crowd’s first night, you know what I mean?” he continued. “So every night’s got that kind of same energy to it, but it’s been truly amazing. I’m not usually short for words, but I can’t really articulate it.”

Having played to packed crowds in Cardiff, London, Manchester, Dublin and Edinburgh, Oasis have scheduled dates around the world including in major cities across the US, Canada, Mexico, Australia, and Japan.

Read more:
Oasis photographers remember the early days
Wembley investigating smuggling claims at Oasis gig

It’s rumoured the band will continue their run of shows next year, when it marks 30 years since they played two sell-out nights at Knebworth Park to an estimated 250,000 people.

When quizzed on the rumours on talkSport, Noel quickly changed the subject, saying: “Right, let’s talk about football.”

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Labour smell dirty tricks over asylum hotel court ruling – but the risks are clear

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Labour smell dirty tricks over asylum hotel court ruling - but the risks are clear

“It’s an interesting moment,” was how one government source described the High Court ruling that will force an Essex hotel to be emptied of asylum seekers within weeks.

That may prove to be the understatement of the summer.

For clues as to why, just take a glance at what the Home Office’s own lawyer told the court on Tuesday.

Granting the injunction “runs the risk of acting as an impetus for further violent protests”, the barrister said – pointing out that similar legal claims by other councils would “aggravate pressures on the asylum estate”.

Right on cue and just hours after the ruling came in, Broxbourne Council – over the border in Hertfordshire – posted online that it was urgently seeking legal advice with a view to taking similar court action.

The risks here are clear.

Police officers ahead of a demonstration outside The Bell Hotel. Pic: PA
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Police officers ahead of a demonstration outside The Bell Hotel. Pic: PA

Recent figures show just over 30,000 asylum seekers being housed in hotels across the country.

If they start to empty out following a string of court claims, the Home Office will struggle to find alternative options.

After all, they are only in hotels because of a lack of other types of accommodation.

There are several caveats though.

This is just an interim injunction that will be heard in full in the autumn.

So the court could swing back in favour of the hotel chain – and by extension the Home Office.

Read more:
Who says what on asylum hotels?

Protesters in Epping on 8 August. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Protesters in Epping on 8 August. Pic: Reuters

We have been here before

Remember, this isn’t the first legal claim of this kind.

Other councils have tried to leverage the power of the courts to shut down asylum hotels, with varying degrees of success.

In 2022, Ipswich Borough Council failed to get an extension to an interim injunction to prevent migrants being sent to a Novotel in the town.

As in Epping, lawyers argued there had been a change in use under planning rules.

The hotel has been the scene of regular protests. Pic: PA
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The hotel has been the scene of regular protests. Pic: PA

But the judge eventually decided that the legal duty the Home Office has to provide accommodation for asylum seekers was more important.

So there may not be a direct read across from this case to other councils.

Home Office officials are emphasising this injunction was won on the grounds of planning laws rather than national issues such as public order, and as such, each case will be different.

Failing Labour approach or Tory tricks?

But government sources also smell dirty tricks from Epping Council and are suggesting that the Tory-led local authority made the legal claim for political reasons.

Pointing to the presence of several prominent Tory MPs in the Essex area – as well as the threat posed by Reform in the county – the question being posed is why this legal challenge was not brought when asylum seekers first started being sent to the hotel in 2020 during the Conservatives‘ time in government.

Epping Council would no doubt reject that and say recent disorder prompted them to act.

But that won’t stop the Tories and Reform of seizing on this as evidence of a failing approach from Labour.

So there are political risks for the government, yes, but it’s the practicalities that could flow from this ruling that pose the bigger danger.

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