Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely to “go on for some time” and now is the moment to ramp up military aid, the US secretary of state has said.
Antony Blinken said “ferocious” fighting continues along Ukraine’s eastern front – but Western partners are determined to “make sure the Ukrainians have what they need to regain what they have lost and to deal with the Russian aggression”.
Appearing at a news conference in Washington DC alongside James Cleverly, the UK foreign secretary, Mr Blinken also warned Russia will continue “using energy to try and punish countries supporting Ukraine”.
“I anticipate that this will unfortunately go on for some time,” Mr Blinken said.
“But we’re determined together… to make sure the Ukrainians have what they need to regain what they have lost and to deal with the Russian aggression. That hasn’t changed.”
Mr Cleverly has travelled to Washington for talks on the war, and spoke alongside Mr Blinken in an attempt to encourage Western leaders to step up support.
Pointing to the UK’s shipment of 14 tanks to Ukraine, Mr Cleverly said it is important to provide the “right equipment at the right time” so Kyiv can engage in the necessary type of fighting.
Mr Blinken welcomed the UK’s decision to supply Ukraine with the British Army Challenger 2 main battle tanks.
Image: James Cleverly with Antony Blinken during a news conference in Washington on Tuesday. Pic: AP
The US secretary of state indicated that the US would be making announcements in the coming days, with defence secretary Lloyd Austin due to host talks with key allies in Ramstein in Germany later this week.
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“We have continuously provided what Ukraine needs and we are doing it in a way that makes sure we are responsive to what is actually happening on the battlefield as well as projecting where it might go,” he said.
“We are determined to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to succeed on the battlefield.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for some 300 modern Western battle tanks to enable his forces to take the offensive against the Russia aggressor.
In practice this is likely to mean US Abrams tanks and German Leopard 2s – or a combination of the two – which are potentially available in far greater numbers than the Challenger 2.
The facts on the ground will drive negotiations over the supply of weapons to Ukraine – and those facts have the potential shift
The key phrase from the news conference between Britain’s foreign secretary and America’s secretary of state?
“Watch this space” – Secretary Blinken’s words when pressed on whether or when America will follow the British initiative to send tanks to Ukraine.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly did not come to Washington to lecture an ally over what weapons should be supplied to Ukraine. After all, America has led the way in arming Ukraine to defend itself over the past 11 months.
But the foreign secretary is hoping that the UK decision to provide its Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine will gently incentivise others to follow.
The “space” to watch is the meeting in Germany of the so-called Ukraine contact group of Western nations this week.
Defence ministers and their military chiefs will be discussing what next for Ukraine.
America’s top general Mark Milley will be there. He’s spent the past day meeting his Ukrainian counterpart on the Polish-Ukraine border.
We’re told General Milley wanted a first-hand battlefield assessment from Ukraine’s General Valery Zaluzhny. You can bet Zaluzhny told Milley “we need your tanks”.
Back here in Washington, beyond our questions and the carefully non-committal answers, the subtext from Cleverly and Blinken was a recognition that this war has some time to run, that winter turning to spring will bring a new Russian offensive and that Putin has time on his side.
That, say the British, is why now is the moment to up not just the quantity but the type of weapons to Ukraine.
In war, facts on the ground drive the negotiations which usually follow.
And those facts have the potential to shift significantly one way or the other as warmer war-fighting weather arrives.
Mr Cleverly, who is in Washington to urge the Americans to go “further and faster” in their support for Ukraine, praised US efforts to date pointing out that it was the biggest single supplier of assistance – both military and economic – to Ukraine.
He said the US and UK have worked “hand in glove” – along with other allies – since the start of the conflict to ensure Ukraine had the support it needed.
“Never in living memory has Russia been more isolated and the Atlantic alliance more united,” he said.
“If Putin believed that the world would succumb to Ukraine fatigue and lose the will to resist his ambitions then that was once again another colossal misjudgment on his part.”
Mr Blinken also reaffirmed the US administration’s call for a negotiated settlement to the dispute between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Following the talks with Mr Cleverly, Mr Blinken said he had underlined President Joe Biden’s unequivocal support for the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
“The United States believes there must be a negotiated settlement to the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol that is acceptable to all sides,” he said. “We are heartened that in recent days the United Kingdom and the European Union have made substantive progress toward a negotiated solution.”
Meanwhile, China said it welcomes a visit by Mr Blinken to the country amid reports he will travel there in early February.
Image: Boris Yeltsin (2L) and Bill Clinton (C) sign the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
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4:14
What security guarantees could work?
The Trump administration’s contradictory statements on possible security guarantees are causing concern here.
MP Lesia Vasylenko told Sky News it is not at all clear what the allies have in mind.
“Who is going to be there backing Ukraine in case Russia decides to revisit their imperialistic plans and strategies and in case they want to restart this war of aggression?”
For many Ukrainians, there is a troubling sense of deja vu.
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0:46
Ukrainian drone strikes Russian fuel train
In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up not land but its nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in return for security assurances from Russia and other powers.
They know how that ended up to their enormous cost. Putin reneged on Russia’s side of the bargain, with his invasion of Crimea in 2014 and once again with his full-scale attack three and a half years ago.
We met veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko, who helped lead those negotiations in the 90s.
Image: Veteran Ukrainian diplomat Yuri Kostenko helped lead the Budapest Memorandum negotiations
He said there is a danger the world makes the same mistake and trusts Vladimir Putin when he says he wants to stop the killing, something Mr Trump said he now believes.
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“It’s not true, it’s not true, Russia never, never, it’s my practices in more than 30 years, Russia never stop their aggression plans to occupy all Ukraine and I think that Mr Trump, if he really believes Mr Putin, it will be a very big mistake, Mr Trump, a very big mistake.”
Before the Alaska summit, allies agreed the best path to peace was forcing Mr Putin to stop his invasion, hitting him where it hurts with severe sanctions on his oil trade.
But Mr Trump has given up calls for a ceasefire and withdrawn threats to impose those tougher sanctions.
Instead, he has led allies down a different and more uncertain path.
Ukrainians we met on the streets of Kyiv said they would love to believe in progress more than anything, but are not encouraged by what they are hearing.
While the diplomacy moves on in an unclear direction, events on the ground and in the skies above Ukraine are depressingly predictable.
Russia is continuing hundreds of drone attacks every night, and its forces are advancing on the front.
If Vladimir Putin really wants this war to end, he’s showing no sign of it, while Ukrainians fear Donald Trump is taking allies down a blind alley of fruitless diplomacy.
Image: Vladimir Putin shaking hands with Donald Trump when they met last week. Pic: Reuters
It was a stunning illustration of Mr Trump’s about-face in his approach to peace. For the past six months, a ceasefire has been his priority, but after meeting Mr Putin in Alaska, suddenly it’s not.
Confirmation that he now views the war through Moscow’s eyes.
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2:10
Trump applauds Putin and shares ride in ‘The Beast’ last week
The second was the format itself, with Mr Trump reverting to his favoured ask-what-you-like open-ended Q&A.
In Alaska, Mr Putin wasn’t made to take any questions – most likely, because he didn’t want to. But here, Mr Zelenskyy didn’t have a choice. He was subjected to a barrage of them to see if he’d learnt his lesson from last time.
It was a further demonstration of the special status Mr Trump seems to afford to Mr Putin.
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The third was their phone call. Initially, President Trump said he’d speak to the Kremlin leader after his meeting with European leaders. But it turned out to be during it.
A face-to-face meeting with seven leaders was interrupted for a phone call with one – as if Mr Trump had to check first with Mr Putin, before continuing his discussions.
We still don’t know the full details of the peace proposal that’s being drawn up, but all this strongly suggests that it’s one sketched out by Russia. The White House is providing the paper, but the Kremlin is holding the pen.
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1:25
Trump, Zelenskyy and the suit: What happened?
For Moscow, the aim now is to keep Mr Trump on their path to peace, which is settlement first, ceasefire later.
It believes that’s the best way of securing its goals, because it has more leverage so long as the fighting continues.
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But Mr Putin will be wary that Mr Trump is pliable and can easily change his mind, depending on the last person he spoke to.
So to ensure that his sympathies aren’t swayed, and its red lines remain intact, Russia will be straining to keep its voice heard.
On Monday, for example, the Russian foreign ministry was quick to condemn recent comments from the UK government that it would be ready to send troops to help enforce any ceasefire.
It described the idea as “provocative” and “predatory”.
Moscow is trying to drown out European concerns by portraying itself as the party that wants peace the most, and Kyiv (and Europe) as the obstacle.
But while Mr Zelenskyy has agreed to a trilateral meeting, the Kremlin has not. After the phone call between Mr Putin and Mr Trump, it said the leaders discussed “raising the level of representatives” in the talks between Russia and Ukraine. No confirmation to what level.
Talks between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders have taken place at the White House, aimed at finding an end to the war in Ukraine.
On the agenda were US security guarantees, whether a ceasefire is required, and a potential summit between the Ukrainian president and Vladimir Putin.
Here’s what three of our correspondents made of it all.
For Trump
For Mr Trump, the challenge to remain seen as the deal-broker is to maintain “forward momentum, through devilish detail,” Sky News’ US correspondent James Matthews says.
The US president called the Washington summit a “very good early step”, but that’s all it was, Matthews says.
Despite cordiality with Mr Zelenskyy and promising talk of a US role in security guarantees for Ukraine and discussions for meetings to come. Matthews says the obstacles remain.
“Trump has taken peace discussions to a distance not travelled since the start of the war, but it is a road navigated by a president playing both sides who have changed his mind on key priorities.”
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1:25
Zelenskyy, Trump and the suit
For Putin
As for Russia, Sky News’ Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennettsays the aim is to keep Trump on its preferred path towards peace – a deal first, a ceasefire later.
“Moscow believes that’s the best way of securing all of its goals,” Bennett says.
But Ukraine and Europe want things the other way round, and Moscow “will be wary that Trump can be easily persuaded by the last person he spoke to”.
And so, Russia will be “trying to keep themselves heard” and “cast Kyiv as the problem, as they won’t agree to a peace deal on the Kremlin’s terms”.
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0:36
What’s Putin’s next move? Sky’s Ivor Bennett explains
For the UK and Europe
Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates says, for Sir Keir Starmer and Europe, the biggest success of the Washington summit was the US promise of security guarantees for Ukraine.
He adds that the “hard work starts now to actually try to figure out what these guarantees amount to”.
Sir Keir said if Vladimir Putin breaches a future peace deal, there would have to be consequences, but Coates said potentially “insoluble” issues stand in the way.
“At what point do those breaches invoke a military response, whether US guarantees would be enough to encourage European involvement in Ukraine, and whether or not you could see the UK and Europe going to war with Russia to protect Ukraine?”
Coates says “there may never be an answer that satisfies everyone involved”.