Who has more to lose as strikes pile up – the PM, or the workers? | Beth Rigby
The third Monday in January is coined “Blue Monday” because it is supposedly the most depressing day of the year, due to the combination of bad weather, stretched finances and broken new year resolutions.
And this particular Blue Monday has brought on an extra dose of misery, bringing with it more strikes in our NHS and now our schools.
The Royal College of Nursing announced there would be two further days of industrial action on 6 and 7 February in England and Wales, to add to their strike days on 18 and 19 January.
Meanwhile, the GMB union also met to discuss further ambulance strikes with its members.
A decision will be made public on Wednesday, but the mood music from meetings today wasn’t good and I expect another round of ambulance strikes to be announced, with a possible six extra days of industrial action.
“There’s a huge amount of anger from our members working in the ambulance service and from the representatives that (health secretary) Steve Barclay is not taking this seriously,” the GMB told me on Monday.
“Our members will not back down in this fight and they need Steve Barclay to actually take them seriously.”
On top of that, teachers have also voted overwhelmingly in support of strike action in their dispute over pay, which is likely to result in the closure or partial closure of a vast majority of schools in England and Wales on 1 February when there is a mass walkout of staff, with further national strike days planned for 15 and 16 March.
It is the worst industrial action since the 1980s and the strike days keep rolling in.
Treasury insiders insist that the chancellor is not going to reopen pay negotiations.
“We have committed to halving inflation this year. High inflation is the root cause of industrial unrest,” one Whitehall figure told me. “We can’t risk doing anything that might disrupt that goal.”
Meanwhile, a senior Number 10 source told me the government has “mentally prepared everyone [in the country] that this might be long term” and the contingency plans in place mean the impact of the strikes hasn’t been as bad as perhaps officials feared.
So far, so blue. But is the government sticking to its guns really sustainable?
Justine Greening, a former Conservative MP and cabinet minister, pointed out to me on Monday night that the issues around pay are also a labour market problem which the government, she thinks, will eventually have to enter.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘I didn’t get one call from education sec’
Read more:
Strikes – who is taking action and when
Thousands of teachers to strike over ‘toxic mix of low pay and excessive workload’
Take teachers: there are huge shortages in areas such as STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and mathematics), with demand for graduates in those areas far outstripping supply in a tight labour market.
“In the end, the government are going to have to get round the table and reach an agreement,” Ms Greening said. “They are recruiting in a wider market and that is going to have to be taken into account.”
Meanwhile, there are some glimmers of hope that this “winter of discontent” could perhaps give way to some sort of compromise in the coming weeks, if all sides shift a little.
When it comes to rail strikes, talks are continuing this week between the rail industry and the RMT union amid renewed optimism that a deal can be reached without further industrial action after a four-week period of strikes either side of Christmas. Talks are set to continue in London on Tuesday.
And when it comes to nurses, there is a sense in government that the mood music is shifting after ministers’ positions moved from absolutely no compromise to talking about options and the Royal College of Nursing unofficially dropped its 19% pay demand to 10%.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Teachers explain why they’re striking
While the government will not, as the unions want, reopen the pay deal for the year to April 2023, there is talk about how “productivity gains” in the NHS could help top up pay, while creative solutions to a pay deal are being floated.
One is to offer nurses a one-off pay award – perhaps up to £1,000 – to help ameliorate the inflation hit without bedding an extra pay rise into salaries.
Another idea is to ensure the pay rise for 2023/24, normally decided in April, kicks in then rather than in August as it normally does, ensuring nurses get the benefit immediately.
A final suggestion is to backdate the April 2023 pay rise to January, effectively giving nurses a three-month pay rise in order to offset the inflationary hit while allowing the government to say it hasn’t re-opened the 2022/23 pay deal.
All of these options have been floated in talks between the unions and the health secretary.
But the decision isn’t Steve Barclay’s, it belongs to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, with the latter no doubt insisting that any additional pay rises should be found from the additional £6.6bn over two years that he awarded the NHS in last November’s autumn statement.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
NHS ‘not averse to change’
In the meantime, as the talks go on, the government is pushing new minimum service level laws through the House of Commons to ensure, in the words of Business Secretary Grant Shapps, that the government can “protect the ability of workers to take industrial action, but it will also protect the public from disproportionate disruption to their daily lives”.
He added: “To put it simply, one person’s right to strike doesn’t infringe on someone else’s right to life and limb.”
But on nurses’ strikes at the very least, the public are very much on the side of the health professionals over the politicians, while unions are warning that strike legislation is unworkable and will only serve to lengthen disputes by further straining already tense relations between the unions and government.
And if the bill does become law, the Trades Union Congress thinks it will have grounds to challenge the new legislation through the courts.
All the while, the continued strikes leave the country with the sense that the wheels are coming off the basic services that citizens expect, which is uncomfortable for a new administration that promised to do less politics and more governing.
Number 10 insiders insist that what would look worse for the new prime minister would be to risk the country’s finances by paying public sector workers more and potentially further stoking inflation.
But in this stand-off, it seems like the prime minister, already 20 points behind in the polls, has more to lose as the strikes, and the public discontentment, pile up.
World
Asianmarkets bounce back after Trump pauses higher tariffs for most countries – despite increasing those on China to 125%
Asian markets have reacted positively after Donald Trump paused his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on most of America’s trading partners for 90 days, despite the US president increasing those on China to 125%.
There have been fears of a global recession and stock markets around the world had plummeted after Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on Wednesday 2 April.
However, Japan’s Nikkei share average was up 8.2% by 3.50am BST, while the broader Topix had risen 7.5%.
Similarly, the S&P 500 stock index had jumped 9.5% and global markets bounced back following Mr Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that the increased tariffs on nearly all trading partners would now be paused.
Tariffs latest: Trump gives reasons for pausing some tariffs
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said the “90-day pause” was for the “more than 75 countries” who had not retaliated against his tariffs “in any way”.
He added that during this period they would still have to pay a “substantially lowered” 10% tariff, which is “effective immediately”.
It is lower than the 20% tariff that Mr Trump had set for goods from the European Union, 24% on imports from Japan and 25% on products from South Korea.
The UK was already going to face a blanket 10% tariff under the new system.
Mr Trump said the increased 125% tariff on imported goods from China was “effective immediately”.
He added: “At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realise that the days of ripping off the USA, and other countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”
Hours after Mr Trump announced the pause on tariffs for most countries, a White House official clarified that this did not apply to the 25% duties imposed on some US imports from Mexico and Canada.
The tariffs were first announced in February and Mexico and Canada were not included in the “Liberation Day” announcements.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Donald Trump says China ‘wants to make a deal’
Hours before the 125% tariff on China was revealed, Beijing said it was increasing tariffs on US goods by 50%.
It meant tariffs of 84% would be enforced on US goods – up from the 34% China had previously planned.
Mr Trump spoke to reporters in the Oval Office. Pic: Reuters
China ‘want to make a deal’
Asked why he posted “BE COOL” on Truth Social hours before announcing his tariff pause, Mr Trump told reporters at the White House: “I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line.”
“They were getting yippy, you know, were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid,” he added.
Mr Trump continued: “China wants to make a deal, they just don’t know how to go about it.
“[They’re] quite the proud people, and President Xi is a proud man. I know him very well, and they don’t know quite how to go about it, but they’ll figure it out.
“They’re in the process of figuring out, but they want to make a deal.”
Read more:
Why Trump finally blinked
Is there method to madness amid market chaos?
Who’s most likely to see pensions hurt
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the walk back was part of a grand negotiating strategy by Mr Trump.
“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” she said, adding that the news media “clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here”.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also insisted Mr Trump had strengthened his hand through his tariffs.
“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” he said.
👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈
Mr Bessent said Mr Trump decided to raise tariffs on China because Beijing hadn’t reached out to the US and instead increased its own levies on US goods.
Downing Street said that the UK will “coolly and calmly” continue its negotiations with the US.
A Number 10 spokeswoman said: “A trade war is in nobody’s interests. We don’t want any tariffs at all, so for jobs and livelihoods across the UK, we will coolly and calmly continue to negotiate in Britain’s interests.”
Along the thin strip of beach and woodland known as the Vistula Spit which marks the northernmost demarcation between Poland and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, there is not much in the way of a border.
Just some torn wire fencing and a few rotten posts which seem to stagger drunkenly into the shallows of the Baltic Sea.
Beneath a sign barring entry, we find a couple of empty bottles of Russian cognac and vodka.
It doesn’t feel like the edge of NATO territory.
This doesn’t feel like the edge of NATO territory
“I don’t see much protection. It’s not good,” says Krzysztof from Katowice, who has come to inspect the border himself.
“We have to have some kind of scare tactic, something to show that we are trying to strengthen our army,” says Grzegorz, who lives nearby.
“At the same time I think I would not base the defence of our country solely on our army. I am convinced that Europe or America, if anything were to happen, will help us 100%.”
Poland is investing massively in its defence, with military spending set to hit 4.7% of GDP in 2025, more than any other NATO country.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said he will introduce voluntary military training for men of any age, and women too should they wish, so the army has a competent reserve force in the event of war.
Border between EU and the Russian Federation
He is investing $2.5bn in stronger border fortifications between Russia and Belarus, a project called East Shield which will include anti-tank obstacles, bunkers and potentially minefields too.
Along with its Baltic neighbours, Poland is withdrawing from the Ottawa convention against the use of land mines. It hasn’t committed to using them, but it wants to have that option.
We’ve been granted access to one of the cornerstones of Polish, and European defence, which is a couple of hours drive from the Vistula spit at the Redowicze military base.
Aegis Ashore Poland
Aegis Ashore Poland, together with its sister site in Romania, are the land-based arms of NATO’s missile defence shield over Europe, which is run by the US navy.
They are symbols of the US commitment to NATO and to the protection of Europe.
The control room at Aegis Ashore Poland
And despite changes at the top of the Pentagon it is “business as usual”, says Captain Michael Dwan who oversees air and missile defence within the US Sixth Fleet.
“Our mission to work with NATO forces has been unchanged. And so our commitment from the United States perspective and what capability we bring to ballistic missile defence and the defence of NATO is championed here in Poland.”
The control room at Aegis Ashore Poland
As far as Russia is concerned, NATO’s two missile defence bases in Romania and Poland represent a NATO threat on their doorstep and are therefore a “priority target for potential neutralisation”, per Russia’s foreign ministry.
NATO says the installations are purely defensive and their SM-3 interceptor missiles are not armed and are not intended to carry warheads. Russia counters they could easily be adapted to threaten Russia.
Not the case, Captain Dwan says.
Aegis Ashore Poland
Aegis Ashore Poland
Read more from Sky News:
King and Queen meet Pope at the Vatican
British passports are about to get more expensive
“It’s not a matter of moving offensive weapons here into the facility, the hardware and the infrastructure is simply not installed.
“It would take months or years to change the mission of this site and a significant amount of money and capability and design.”
With so much marked “secret” on the site, it seems amazing to be granted the access.
But for NATO, transparency is part of deterrence. They want potential adversaries to know how sophisticated their radar and interception systems are.
They know that if they carried warheads on site, that would make them a target so they don’t.
Deterrence also depends on whether potential adversaries believe in the US’s commitment to NATO and to Europe’s defence.
On an operational level, as far as the troops are concerned, that commitment may still be iron-clad.
But as far as its commander-in-chief goes, there is still – as with so much around Donald Trump’s presidency – a great deal of uncertainty.
In the Oval Office on Wednesday afternoon President Trump suggested he might bundle a potential US troop drawdown in Europe together with the issue of EU trade and tariffs.
“Nice to wrap it up in one package,” he said, “it’s nice and clean”.
Probably not the way Europe sees it, not with a resurgent Russia on their doorstep, economic tailwinds breeding animosity and the notion of Pax Americana crumbling at their feet.
The defence secretary will urge “coalition of the willing” nations to increase pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine as plans to support peace ramp up.
John Healey and French defence minister Sebastien Lecornu will lead about 30 defence ministers in Brussels on Thursday as they discuss operational plans for a multinational peacekeeping force in Ukraine as part of the “coalition of the willing”.
They will look at each nation’s capabilities and how they could be best used to support Ukraine’s long-term defence and security as part of what the Ministry of Defence called a “reassurance force”.
UK and French military chiefs discussed planning with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his military chiefs in Kyiv last weekend.
Peace negotiations are ongoing between the US and Russia, however, US officials appear to be growing increasingly impatient with the lack of progress after Donald Trump publicly suggested a month ago Vladimir Putin wants to end the war.
Read more: Who’s in and who’s out of the coalition of the willing?
Leaders of nations part of the coalition of the willing at a summit in Paris on 27 March. Pic: AP
Last Tuesday, the Kremlin described the latest US peace proposal as unacceptable in its current form because it does not solve the “root causes” of the conflict.
Mr Putin wants to dismantle Ukraine as an independent, functioning state and has demanded Kyiv recognise Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and other partly occupied areas and pull its forces out, as well as a pledge for Ukraine to never join NATO and to demilitarise.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday Mr Trump is not “going to fall into the trap of endless negotiations” with Moscow.
Read more:
Two Chinese citizens ‘fighting for Russia’ captured in Ukraine
Zelenskyy makes dig at US over response to Russian attack
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Children killed in Russian missile strike
Despite the apparent impasse in talks, the coalition of the willing – which does not include the US – is continuing with its plans for when peace is agreed.
Mr Healey is expected to tell his fellow defence ministers: “We cannot jeopardise the peace by forgetting about the war, so we must put even more pressure on Putin and step up our support for Ukraine – both in today’s fight and the push for peace.
“Our commitment is to put Ukraine in the strongest position to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and deter future Russian aggression.”
On Friday, the defence secretary and his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, will chair the 27th meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels.
The group is an alliance of about 50 countries – all 32 NATO member states, including the US, and about 20 other countries – that has been supporting Ukraine by sending military equipment since Russia invaded in April 2022.
A Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting – including the US defence secretary – in March. Pic: AP
Mr Healey and Mr Pistorius will “drive forward additional military support” as Russia continues to attack Ukraine.
The latest development in the war has seen Mr Zelenskyy say Ukraine has intelligence there are at least 155 Chinese citizens fighting for the Russian military.
On Tuesday, Mr Zelenskyy released a video of a Chinese soldier taken by Ukrainian forces, with another captured by Ukrainian forces, he said.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian denied claims there were “many more” Chinese citizens fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway