Who has more to lose as strikes pile up – the PM, or the workers? | Beth Rigby
The third Monday in January is coined “Blue Monday” because it is supposedly the most depressing day of the year, due to the combination of bad weather, stretched finances and broken new year resolutions.
And this particular Blue Monday has brought on an extra dose of misery, bringing with it more strikes in our NHS and now our schools.
The Royal College of Nursing announced there would be two further days of industrial action on 6 and 7 February in England and Wales, to add to their strike days on 18 and 19 January.
Meanwhile, the GMB union also met to discuss further ambulance strikes with its members.
A decision will be made public on Wednesday, but the mood music from meetings today wasn’t good and I expect another round of ambulance strikes to be announced, with a possible six extra days of industrial action.
“There’s a huge amount of anger from our members working in the ambulance service and from the representatives that (health secretary) Steve Barclay is not taking this seriously,” the GMB told me on Monday.
“Our members will not back down in this fight and they need Steve Barclay to actually take them seriously.”
On top of that, teachers have also voted overwhelmingly in support of strike action in their dispute over pay, which is likely to result in the closure or partial closure of a vast majority of schools in England and Wales on 1 February when there is a mass walkout of staff, with further national strike days planned for 15 and 16 March.
It is the worst industrial action since the 1980s and the strike days keep rolling in.
Treasury insiders insist that the chancellor is not going to reopen pay negotiations.
“We have committed to halving inflation this year. High inflation is the root cause of industrial unrest,” one Whitehall figure told me. “We can’t risk doing anything that might disrupt that goal.”
Meanwhile, a senior Number 10 source told me the government has “mentally prepared everyone [in the country] that this might be long term” and the contingency plans in place mean the impact of the strikes hasn’t been as bad as perhaps officials feared.
So far, so blue. But is the government sticking to its guns really sustainable?
Justine Greening, a former Conservative MP and cabinet minister, pointed out to me on Monday night that the issues around pay are also a labour market problem which the government, she thinks, will eventually have to enter.
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‘I didn’t get one call from education sec’
Read more:
Strikes – who is taking action and when
Thousands of teachers to strike over ‘toxic mix of low pay and excessive workload’
Take teachers: there are huge shortages in areas such as STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and mathematics), with demand for graduates in those areas far outstripping supply in a tight labour market.
“In the end, the government are going to have to get round the table and reach an agreement,” Ms Greening said. “They are recruiting in a wider market and that is going to have to be taken into account.”
Meanwhile, there are some glimmers of hope that this “winter of discontent” could perhaps give way to some sort of compromise in the coming weeks, if all sides shift a little.
When it comes to rail strikes, talks are continuing this week between the rail industry and the RMT union amid renewed optimism that a deal can be reached without further industrial action after a four-week period of strikes either side of Christmas. Talks are set to continue in London on Tuesday.
And when it comes to nurses, there is a sense in government that the mood music is shifting after ministers’ positions moved from absolutely no compromise to talking about options and the Royal College of Nursing unofficially dropped its 19% pay demand to 10%.
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Teachers explain why they’re striking
While the government will not, as the unions want, reopen the pay deal for the year to April 2023, there is talk about how “productivity gains” in the NHS could help top up pay, while creative solutions to a pay deal are being floated.
One is to offer nurses a one-off pay award – perhaps up to £1,000 – to help ameliorate the inflation hit without bedding an extra pay rise into salaries.
Another idea is to ensure the pay rise for 2023/24, normally decided in April, kicks in then rather than in August as it normally does, ensuring nurses get the benefit immediately.
A final suggestion is to backdate the April 2023 pay rise to January, effectively giving nurses a three-month pay rise in order to offset the inflationary hit while allowing the government to say it hasn’t re-opened the 2022/23 pay deal.
All of these options have been floated in talks between the unions and the health secretary.
But the decision isn’t Steve Barclay’s, it belongs to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, with the latter no doubt insisting that any additional pay rises should be found from the additional £6.6bn over two years that he awarded the NHS in last November’s autumn statement.
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NHS ‘not averse to change’
In the meantime, as the talks go on, the government is pushing new minimum service level laws through the House of Commons to ensure, in the words of Business Secretary Grant Shapps, that the government can “protect the ability of workers to take industrial action, but it will also protect the public from disproportionate disruption to their daily lives”.
He added: “To put it simply, one person’s right to strike doesn’t infringe on someone else’s right to life and limb.”
But on nurses’ strikes at the very least, the public are very much on the side of the health professionals over the politicians, while unions are warning that strike legislation is unworkable and will only serve to lengthen disputes by further straining already tense relations between the unions and government.
And if the bill does become law, the Trades Union Congress thinks it will have grounds to challenge the new legislation through the courts.
All the while, the continued strikes leave the country with the sense that the wheels are coming off the basic services that citizens expect, which is uncomfortable for a new administration that promised to do less politics and more governing.
Number 10 insiders insist that what would look worse for the new prime minister would be to risk the country’s finances by paying public sector workers more and potentially further stoking inflation.
But in this stand-off, it seems like the prime minister, already 20 points behind in the polls, has more to lose as the strikes, and the public discontentment, pile up.
World
Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE – as Israeli PM says he was murdered in ‘antisemitic terror incident’
The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.
The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.
Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.
It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.
But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.
Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.
“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”
The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.
The talks were rocked from the start by the incoming presidency of climate denier Mr Trump, the moment Argentina’s team were recalled back to Buenos Aires by their right-wing president and a controversial letter that sent shockwaves through the United Nations.
Pic: AP
The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.
A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.
Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.
They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.
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Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks
The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.
A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.
A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.
Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.
Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.
‘Not everything we wanted’
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The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.
“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.
“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.
“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”
Protesters at the summit in Baku. Pic: AP
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Azerbaijan president hails oil and gas as ‘gift from God’
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The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.
“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”
At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.
Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.
The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.
The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut
The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.
At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.
A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.
The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.
Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.
The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.
Pic: AP
Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.
Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.
According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.
It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.
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Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.
Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.
The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.
US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.
Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.
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