Aramco chief warns of possible oil supply shortages, as Chinese demand set to surge
The chief of the world’s largest oil company is worried about global crude supplies.
Current market dynamics — such as China’s slowdown and an aviation sector that is still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic — have kept demand relatively subdued, but that is set to change soon. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser fears the world won’t have enough spare capacity to deal with that shift.
“For crude oil, we are in a situation where there is a spare capacity that is helping to mitigate interruptions,” Nasser told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble. “However, I am not so sure about the mid-to-long term, because as the spare capacity erodes, we will not be having the capability to mitigate any short or long term interruptions like what happened with Russia-Ukraine crisis.”
Aramco pumps about 10% of the world’s crude oil supply. It has a maximum capacity to pump 12 million barrels of crude per day, Nasser said, and is working on increasing that by a further million barrels per day. Still, he says, “We should be worried about the mid to long term. I think there will be an issue in meeting the growing demand.”
The latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency out Wednesday forecast global oil demand will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2023 to reach a record 101.7 million barrels per day — with nearly half of that coming from China. The agency meanwhile expects oil supply growth to slow to 1 million barrels per day in that same period.
While Aramco is working on building additional production capacity, “I don’t think it is enough investment to bring additional capacity that will be needed to supply the market,” Nasser said. “It will not mitigate a situation where the demand is growing and offsetting the decline. You need additional investment elsewhere, globally, to meet global demand.”
Investment in hydrocarbons has decreased amid a focus on decarbonization, and government regulations in many countries discourage fossil fuel exploration and drilling. Saudi Arabia and many of its partners in the OPEC producers’ alliance have repeatedly called for simultaneous investment in hydrocarbons and in the energy transition to avoid a future supply squeeze.
The looming supply-demand dynamic could bolster prices. Maarten Wetselaar, chief executive of Spanish oil company Cepsa, on Wednesday predicted that the crude oil price would return to triple-digits in the second half of 2023. Front-month Ice Brent crude futures were trading near $87.36 per barrel at midday in London.
“Think about it this way,” Nasser said. “Today we have around 2 million barrels of spare capacity. The aviation industry is 1 million barrels below pre-Covid level. As [the] aviation industry picks up in 2023-24, that’s an additional 1 million barrels. [Consider] China opening up and that will really add a lot to the demand side.”
He stressed, “So all of these indicators now, without looming recessions — if economies start picking up and improving, that will also require additional supply. So you need additional investment to prepare for what’s coming.”
On today’s sunny side up episode of Quick Charge, we take a look at the latest from the world of solar power, and discuss Congressional Republicans’ plans to limit your energy independence by eliminating a critical tax credit for homeowners nearly ten years early. (!)
We’ve also got a quick review of a massive solar farm powering 200,000 homes in Indiana and the biggest solar project East of the Mississippi – both part of a record 98% of all new power generation and grid capacity introduced in 2025 coming from wind and solar. Those are jobs, those are lower utility rates, those are energy independence … so why are Congressional Republicans working to make that more expensive?
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If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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A Waymo autonomous vehicle drives along Masonic Avenue on April 11, 2022 in San Francisco, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Alphabet’s Waymo unit has received approval to expand its autonomous ride-hailing service to more parts of the San Francisco Bay Area, including San Jose.
In March, the company submitted a request to the California Public Utilities Commission to gain approval for its latest passenger safety plan, a key step in gaining permission to operate driverless vehicles across a broader area. On Monday, the proposed expansion was approved, allowing for Waymo’s driverless coverage to extend from San Francisco down through the Peninsula.
“We’re very excited to share that the CPUC has approved our application to operate our fully autonomous commercial ride-hailing service in the South Bay and nearly all of San Jose!” the company wrote in a post on X on Monday. “While this won’t change our operations in the near-term, we’re looking forward to bringing the benefits of Waymo One to more of the Bay Area in the future.”
The $5 billion Empire Wind is back in business. The Trump administration’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has lifted its stop-work order for Empire Wind, a major offshore wind project off the coast of New York led by Empire Offshore Wind LLC, a subsidiary of Equinor. Construction is now allowed to resume.
Equinor CEO Anders Opedal welcomed the news, saying the restart reinforces Equinor’s commitment to delivering clean energy while supporting local economies and saving thousands of jobs. He also credited a wide coalition of officials for helping get the project back on track, including Trump, New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and congressional leaders like Senator Chuck Schumer and Representative Dan Goldman. Opedal also thanked the Norwegian prime minister and the minister of finance for raising the issue with the US administration.
Governor Hochul said in a statement that “countless conversations with Equinor and White House officials” had taken place.
Neither the BOEM nor the Department of the Interior has issued a comment.
The Trump administration halted construction of the 54-turbine Empire Wind on April 16, but discussions between Equinor, regulators, and leaders at the federal, state, and city levels led to a reversal. That means Empire Wind can now push ahead with its goal of powering 500,000 New York homes with offshore wind energy.
“This project delivers on the energy ambitions shared by the US and New York by providing a vital new source of power to the region,” said Molly Morris, president of Equinor Wind US. She added that Empire Wind is boosting supply chain investments across the country, with activity in New York, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Texas, and South Carolina.
Equinor plans to reassess the project’s financials in the second quarter. The goal is still to install turbines offshore in 2025 and hit full commercial operation by 2027. The company says it will work with suppliers and regulators to minimize any delays from the month-long pause.
Empire Wind was first awarded its offshore lease in 2017 after a competitive federal process. It received its final construction green light in early 2024 following an extensive environmental review. Construction kicked off shortly after, and the project is now over 30% complete.
The US is a major market for Equinor. The Norwegian energy giant says it has invested around $60 billion in US energy projects since the early 2000s, more recently in low-carbon solutions, critical minerals, and renewables. Empire Wind is one of its flagship projects in the US.
Read more: Trump admin halts $5 billion NY offshore wind project mid-build
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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