China ‘more likely’ to invade Taiwan – and attack could come in 2027, island’s foreign minister Joseph Wu warns
Taiwan’s foreign minister has said he believes China is now “more likely” to invade Taiwan to distract from leader Xi Jinping’s domestic problems.
Speaking exclusively to Sky News in his first sit-down interview of the year, Joseph Wu set 2027 as the key date such action will most likely happen.
His words come at a time when tensions across the Taiwan strait are the highest they’ve been for many years, with China now flying fighter jets towards Taiwanese airspace on a daily basis.
Mr Wu also said that the current “status quo” arrangement, in which Taiwan is self-governing but does not officially declare independence, “might not last forever”, in a rare acknowledgement that the island might one day either be assimilated by China or become an independent country.
Taiwan is a democratic, self-governing island that China sees as its own.
Despite it having never been controlled by the governing Communist Party, bringing Taiwan under Chinese control has been described by President Xi Jinping as at the “core of China’s core interests”.
Mr Wu acknowledged that “the situation in the last year compared to the two previous years is much worse”, but said: “To me, 2027 is the year that we need to watch out for.”
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“In 2027, Xi Jinping is likely to go into his fourth term, and, if in his previous three terms he cannot claim any achievement during his office, he might need to think about something else for him to claim as his achievement or his legacy.
“If you look at the Chinese situation right now, the economy is going down. People are not happy, the real estate business seems to be melting down.
“If Xi Jinping cannot change the situation domestically in China, you might want to resort to a use of force or creating a crisis externally to divert domestic attention or to show to the Chinese that he has accomplished something.
“We are concerned that Taiwan might become his scapegoat.”
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China conducted military drills near Taiwan last year
‘A tiny little accident might spark major war’
Chinese fighter jets are now flying towards Taiwanese airspace and crossing the so-called ‘median line’ – the unofficial maritime border – on a daily basis.
The number increased five-fold between 2020 and 2022 with the highest ever daily count recorded just three weeks ago.
Mr Wu said that the “worst case scenario” happening is now “more likely” than in previous years, and described how precarious the situation can be.
“Look at the proximity of the Chinese aircraft to our aircraft,” he said.
“If they cross the 24 nautical miles zone, some of our weapons systems might have to target those Chinese aircraft, and that might spark an accident, even though it might not be intentional for the Chinese pilots to cross the 24 nautical miles.
“Very often, you see the sum of a tiny little accident might spark into a major war.
“We worry that might happen.”
The only thing to prevent that sudden escalation now, he added, is “self-restraint”.
“Our pilots are very well-trained; they know they cannot fire the first shot,” Mr Wu said.
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China shows off military might during November air show
Is Taiwan prepared for a war against China?
There have been suggestions from military experts that Taiwan is not well enough prepared if war did come to the island.
Taiwan only spends 2.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, which is lower than countries like the United States and around half the amount spent by Israel.
According to analysis, it also does not have enough munitions, struggles to meet recruitment quotas within the armed forces and has not focused enough on the kind of asymmetric capabilities it would need to fight a war with China.
The foreign minister rejected the idea Taiwan is complacent, but acknowledged it has previously been slow to prepare.
“We understand that in previous years, we might not have acquired sufficient ammunition,” he said.
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“In previous years, we might not have sufficient training for our military personnel. And in previous years, we understand that the number of our soldiers in defending Taiwan might not be enough, but look at the reform measures the president has announced.”
Taiwan has recently extended compulsory military service from four months to a year, increased the defence budget and is attempting to kickstart domestic production of drones and missiles.
“We are trying everything we can to make Taiwan prepared, to make Taiwan capable of defending itself,” Mr Wu said.
While he insisted Taiwan would be willing to negotiate with China, he was clear that it doesn’t “welcome political preconditions”.
“Accepting those Chinese preconditions means that we are submitting to China, and that is something that the people here in Taiwan would never accept, but our door is open,” he said.
The fast-moving developments on Trump’s Ukraine peace deal are dominating the G20 summit in South Africa, as European leaders scramble to put together a counter-proposal to the US-Russia 28-point plan and reinsert Ukraine into these discussions.
European countries are now working up proposals to put to President Trump ahead of his deadline of Thursday to agree a deal.
Ukraine is in a tight spot. It cannot reject Washington outright – it relies on US military support to continue this war – but neither can it accept the terms of a deal that is acutely favourable to Russia, requiring Ukraine to give up territory not even occupied by Moscow and reducing its army.
Overnight, the UK government has reiterated its position that any deal must deliver a “just and lasting peace”.
Ukraine war latest: Kyiv to discuss ending war in talks in Switzerland
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Keir Starmer calls for growth plan at G20
The prime minister, who spoke with E3 allies President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on the phone on Friday, is having more conversations today with key partners as they work out how to handle Trump and improve this deal for Ukraine.
One diplomatic source told me allies are being very careful not to criticise Trump or his approach for fear of exacerbating an already delicate situation.
Instead, the prime minister is directing his attacks at Russia.
Read more:
Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan in full
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Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a plenary session on the first day of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. Pic: Reuters
“There is only one country around the G20 table that is not calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and one country that is deploying a barrage of drones and missiles to destroy livelihoods and murder innocent civilians,” he said on Friday evening.
“Time and again, Russia pretends to be serious about peace, but its actions never live up to its words.”
Pic: AP
On the Trump plan, the prime minister said allies are meetin on Saturday “to discuss the current proposal on the table, and in support of Trump’s push for peace, look at how we can strengthen this plan for the next phase of negotiations”.
Strengthening the plan really means that they want to rebalance it towards Ukraine’s position and make it tougher on Russia.
“Ukraine has been ready to negotiate for months, while Russia has stalled and continued its murderous rampage. That is why we must all work together with both the US and Ukraine, to secure a just and lasting peace once and for all,” said the prime minister.
“We will continue to coordinate closely with Washington and Kyiv to achieve that. However, we cannot simply wait for peace.
“We must strain every sinew to secure it. We must cut off Putin’s finance flows by ending our reliance on Russian gas. It won’t be easy, but it’s the right thing to do.”
Pic: AP
Europeans hadn’t even seen this deal earlier in the week, in a sign that the US is cutting other allies out of negotiations – for now at least.
Starmer and other European leaders want to get to a position where Ukraine and Europe are at least at the table.
There is some discussion about whether European leaders such as Macron and Meloni might travel to Washington to speak to Trump early next week in order to persuade him of the European and Ukrainian perspective, as leaders did last August following the US-Russian summit in Alaska.
But Sky News understands there are no discussions about the PM travelling to Washington next week ahead of the budget.
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