Inflation: The worst is not yet over for consumers – falling inflation is not the same as falling prices
That inflation of 10.5% should be essentially good news speaks volumes for the economic turmoil of the last year.
A second consecutive monthly fall from October’s high of 11.1% suggests price rises may have peaked and the descent towards less corrosive rates, perhaps below 6% by the middle of the year, has begun.
Some of this will be down to economic gravity, as increases that were gathering pace at the turn of last year, and accelerated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, are lapped by this year’s figures.
If inflation has peaked, however, it does not mean the worst is over for consumers; falling inflation is not the same as falling prices. It is only the rate of increase that is slowing.
A fall in diesel and petrol prices, albeit from historic highs, brought the greatest downward pressure on consumer price index (CPI) inflation, with year-on-year inflation to December falling to 6.9% from a June peak of 15.2%.
That is good for drivers at the pump and for the economy more widely, reducing the cost of supplying goods as almost nothing in the UK moves without seeing the back of a lorry.
Falling fuel costs have not been enough to curb food prices, up 16.8% in the run-up to Christmas, a faster rate than in November and the highest since 1977 by Office of National Statistics calculation.
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Inflation down from ‘a high peak’
All the primary factors in global inflation – war, energy and post-Covid supply chains – coalesce in food production, pushing up the cost of feed, fuel and fertiliser.
That makes pricier grocery bills inevitable and has a disproportionate impact on the least well-off, for whom food is a greater proportion of spending.
The best argument for higher wages
Many of them will work in the public sector, where high inflation will remain employees’ best argument for higher wage settlements, and the government’s primary justification for denying them.
Immigration minister Robert Jenrick told Sky News on Wednesday that increasing wage offers would “be the very worst thing we could do”, a comment unlikely to ease industrial relations or win approval from economists.
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While ministers argue increasing public sector wages will cause a “wage-price spiral”, in which higher pay increases costs that businesses pass on to consumers, thus embedding inflation just as it starts to fall, plenty of economists disagree.
Many argue public sector pay is not inflationary because there is no onward cost to the consumer of a teacher or nurse’s time, but to the taxpayer, with the government able to adjust its spending accordingly. Increasing state employee pay may even deliver economic benefits, with more spending and a greater tax take.
With real-term pay falling 3.8% in November, and even private sector pay settlements of 7.2% on average well short of inflation, there is no sign yet of an upward spiral.
There is one cautionary figure in the latest data, however.
Core services inflation is still rising, up to 6.8%, a sign perhaps that higher private sector wages in a largely domestic market are beginning to stick.
Peaked or not, the Bank of England will not need an excuse to increase interest rates when it meets next month.
Sir Keir Starmer has joined other European leaders in Kyiv to press Russia to agree an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
The prime minister is attending the summit alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It is the first time the leaders of the four countries have travelled to Ukraine at the same time – arriving in the capital by train – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kyiv. Pic: Reuters
Leaders arrive in Kyiv by train. Pic: PA
It comes after Donald Trump called for “ideally” a 30-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, and warned that if any pause in the fighting is not respected “the US and its partners will impose further sanctions”.
Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Samantha Washington the European leaders are “rowing in behind” the US president, who referred to his “European allies” for the first time in this context in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“So this meeting is all about heaping pressure on the Russians to go along with the American proposal,” he said.
“It’s the closest the Europeans and the US have been for about three months on this issue.”
Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron among world leaders in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Trump calls for ceasefire. Pic: Truth Social
Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine and its allies are ready for a “full, unconditional ceasefire” for at least 30 days starting on Monday.
Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement.
European leaders show solidarity – but await Trump’s backing
The hope is Russia’s unilateral ceasefire, such as it’s worth, can be extended for a month to give peace a chance.
But ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian sources told Sky News they are still waiting for President Donald Trump to put his full weight behind the idea.
The US leader has said a 30-day ceasefire would be ideal, but has shown no willingness yet for putting pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin to agree.
The Russians say a ceasefire can only come after a peace deal can be reached.
European allies are still putting their hopes in a negotiated end to the war despite Moscow’s intransigence and President Trump’s apparent one-sided approach favouring Russia.
Ukrainians would prefer to be given enough economic and military support to secure victory.
But in over three years, despite its massive economic superiority to Russia and its access to more advanced military technology, Europe has not found the political will to give Kyiv the means to win.
Until they do, Vladimir Putin may decide it is still worth pursuing this war despite its massive cost in men and materiel on both sides.
“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.
“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
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Putin’s Victory Day parade explained
The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.
But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.
“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.
“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”
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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.
They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for a coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
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This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
A special constable has been jailed after taking pictures on his phone from bodycam footage showing a dying man.
Former police volunteer William Heggs, 23, was sentenced to 12 months’ imprisonment at Leicester Crown Court on Friday after showing the photos of victim William Harty, 28, to a female colleague and storing them on his Snapchat account.
Mr Harty was found seriously injured in a residential street in Leicester on 25 October 2021 and Heggs had attended the scene, helping with CPR before paramedics arrived.
Mr Harty died in hospital a day later and the man responsible for his injuries, his brother-in-law Martin Casey, was subsequently convicted of his manslaughter.
Heggs showed the pictures he had taken of bodycam footage of Mr Harty’s body to a Leicestershire Police constable, who reported Heggs and said she did not like seeing blood.
His phone was seized and officers discovered other photographs and video clips of bodyworn footage of incidents Heggs had attended on duty, including of a knife seizure, use of baton and pepper spray, and a man with an injured hand receiving first aid.
He also took pictures of a police computer screen, showing details of crimes and suspects, without consent.
Heggs stored the materials in a Snapchat folder and disclosed graphic details – most of which were not in the public domain – about the injuries to a woman who was killed in a road traffic collision he had attended, to a friend on the social media platform.
Heggs was suspended from the force in November 2021 and resigned in October 2024 before pleading guilty to 11 computer misuse and data protection offences this March.
William Harty’s widow Mandy Casey. Pic: PA
‘He has traumatised me’
Mr Harty’s widow, Mandy Casey, said in a victim impact statement read to the court that Heggs “took (her) husband’s dignity when he was most vulnerable”.
“You don’t take someone’s dignity and pride from them on their deathbed.”
She continued: “When I found out special constable Heggs had done this, I just wanted to ask why. He has traumatised me. I feel I will never know if he showed them to others.”
Ms Casey said she was still scared that photos of her husband’s body might appear on social media.
She added that she had lost trust in the police.
Public trust in police ‘significantly undermined’
Judge Timothy Spencer told Heggs, who has autism and ADHD, that he was “probably too immature to be working as a police officer” as he handed down the sentence.
He said Heggs had received “extensive training”, including on the importance of data protection, and knew he should only share materials for “a genuine policing purpose”.
Heggs’s actions had “significantly undermined” public trust and confidence in police, according to the judge.
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Malcolm McHaffie, from the Crown Prosecution Service, added: “William Heggs abused the public’s trust in the office he held as a special police constable.
“He violated the dignity of the deceased victims for no apparent reason other than what could be considered personal fascination and to gain credibility among his peers.”
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