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Scottish voters would reject independence if a referendum was held tomorrow, a new poll has suggested.

The snapshot survey showed 46% of people would vote to leave the UK, while 54% would vote to stay.

It is the first poll on independence of the year and comes after a number of polls towards the end of 2022 suggested a spike in support for Scotland leaving the UK in the wake of the Supreme Court judgement on ‘Indyref2’.

However, the new poll took place before the UK Government used its Section 35 powers to block Holyrood’s gender recognition reform legislation, triggering another constitutional dispute.

The latest poll was carried out by Survation for advisory company True North, with 1,002 Scots being surveyed between 10 January and 12 January.

It also asked respondents how they would vote if the next Westminster election was a “de facto referendum on Scottish independence”.

Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, has suggested using the next general election in this way.

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Under this scenario, the SNP were on 45% of the vote when undecideds and those who would refuse to vote are removed – far below the 50% mark Ms Sturgeon would hope to reach.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon during First Minster's Questions, at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. Picture date: Thursday January 19, 2023.
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Nicola Sturgeon’s hopes of holding a second independence referendum were dashed in November last year

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said: “There is no evidence in the poll that fighting the next election as a de facto referendum would reduce the level of SNP support.

“Rather, slightly more voters (45%) say that they would vote for the SNP in that circumstance.”

However, Mr Curtice said Friday’s poll “suggests that the spike in support for independence registered after the Supreme Court judgement on indyref2 has proven to be temporary”.

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Government veto on Scotland bill ‘a dangerous moment for devolution’

“In truth, if the SNP are going to win over 50% of the vote in either kind of election, the party will need first to persuade more people of the case for independence.”

Ms Sturgeon’s hopes of holding a second vote on independence were put on hold in November last year when the Supreme Court ruled Holyrood does not have the power to hold a referendum without the UK Government’s permission.

The SNP leader said in the wake of the ruling that she intended to use the next general election as a de facto referendum on independence.

In a keynote address at the Business for Scotland annual dinner on Thursday evening, Ms Sturgeon said a recent move by Westminster to block gender reforms are a “full-frontal assault” on devolution and strengthens the case for Scottish independence.

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Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE – as Israeli PM says he was murdered in ‘antisemitic terror incident’

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Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE - as Israeli PM says he was murdered in 'antisemitic terror incident'

The body of an Israeli-Moldovan rabbi who went missing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been found, Israel has said.

Zvi Kogan, the Chabad representative in the UAE, went missing on Thursday.

A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office on Sunday said the 28-year-old rabbi was murdered, calling it a “heinous antisemitic terror incident”.

“The state of Israel will act with all means to seek justice with the criminals responsible for his death,” it said.

On Saturday, Israeli intelligence agency Mossad said it was investigating the disappearance as suspicions arose that he had been kidnapped.

The Emirati government gave no immediate acknowledgment that Mr Kogan had been found dead. Its interior ministry has described the rabbi as being “missing and out of contact”.

“Specialised authorities immediately began search and investigation operations upon receiving the report,” the interior ministry said.

Mr Kogan lived in the UAE with his wife Rivky, who is a US citizen. He ran a Kosher grocery store in Dubai, which has been the target of online protests by pro-Palestinian supporters.

The Chabad Lubavitch movement, a prominent and highly observant branch of Orthodox Judaism, said Mr Kogan was last seen in Dubai.

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Israeli authorities reissued their recommendation against all non-essential travel to the UAE and said visitors currently there should minimise movement and remain in secure areas.

The rabbi’s disappearance comes as Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel after the two countries traded fire in October.

While the Israeli statement on Mr Kogan did not mention Iran, Iranian intelligence services have previously carried out kidnappings in the UAE.

The UAE diplomatically recognised Israel in 2020. Since then, synagogues and businesses catering to kosher diners have been set up for the burgeoning Jewish community but the unrest in the Middle East has sparked deep anger in the country.

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COP29 strikes last ditch deal on funding for climate measures in vulnerable countries

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COP29 strikes last ditch deal on funding for climate measures in vulnerable countries

The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.

The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.

Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.

It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.

But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.

Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.

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“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”

The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.

The talks were rocked from the start by the incoming presidency of climate denier Mr Trump, the moment Argentina’s team were recalled back to Buenos Aires by their right-wing president and a controversial letter that sent shockwaves through the United Nations.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.

A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.

Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.

They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.

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Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks

The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.

A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.

A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.

Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.

Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.

‘Not everything we wanted’

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The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.

“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.

“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.

“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate finance at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Friday, Nov. 22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)
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Protesters at the summit in Baku. Pic: AP

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The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.

“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”

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At least 20 killed in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities say

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At least 20 killed in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities say

At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.

Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.

The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.

The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut, where four people were killed in an Israeli airstrike
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The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut

Map of Lebanon and Israel

The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.

At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.

A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.

The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.

Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.

The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.

Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.

According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.

It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.

Read more:
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‘Dozens’ of Palestinians killed in Israeli airstrike

Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.

Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.

The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.

The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.

US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.

Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.

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