Scottish voters would reject independence if a referendum was held tomorrow, a new poll has suggested.
The snapshot survey showed 46% of people would vote to leave the UK, while 54% would vote to stay.
It is the first poll on independence of the year and comes after a number of polls towards the end of 2022 suggested a spike in support for Scotland leaving the UK in the wake of the Supreme Court judgement on ‘Indyref2’.
The latest poll was carried out by Survation for advisory company True North, with 1,002 Scots being surveyed between 10 January and 12 January.
It also asked respondents how they would vote if the next Westminster election was a “de facto referendum on Scottish independence”.
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, has suggested using the next general election in this way.
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Under this scenario, the SNP were on 45% of the vote when undecideds and those who would refuse to vote are removed – far below the 50% mark Ms Sturgeon would hope to reach.
Image: Nicola Sturgeon’s hopes of holding a second independence referendum were dashed in November last year
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said: “There is no evidence in the poll that fighting the next election as a de facto referendum would reduce the level of SNP support.
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“Rather, slightly more voters (45%) say that they would vote for the SNP in that circumstance.”
However, Mr Curtice said Friday’s poll “suggests that the spike in support for independence registered after the Supreme Court judgement on indyref2 has proven to be temporary”.
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Government veto on Scotland bill ‘a dangerous moment for devolution’
“In truth, if the SNP are going to win over 50% of the vote in either kind of election, the party will need first to persuade more people of the case for independence.”
Ms Sturgeon’s hopes of holding a second vote on independence were put on hold in November last year when the Supreme Court ruled Holyrood does not have the power to hold a referendum without the UK Government’s permission.
In a keynote address at the Business for Scotland annual dinner on Thursday evening, Ms Sturgeon said a recent move by Westminster to block gender reforms are a “full-frontal assault” on devolution and strengthens the case for Scottish independence.
Grief was not lonely today in Hong Kong. Three days after the worst fire in the history of modern Hong Kong, it feels as though it has barely sunk in.
The weekend at least lent them time to pay tribute, and gave them some space to reflect.
People came in droves to lay flowers, so many a queuing system was needed.
Image: People queue with flowers near the site to mourn the victims of the deadly fire. Pic: AP
Official books of condolences were also set up in multiple parts of the city.
It was the first day large teams of investigators were able to enter the site. Dozens of them in hazmat suits were bused in, their work the grimmest of tasks.
Every so often you could see a flashlight peep through the window of an upper blackened window, a reminder that the fire services are still undertaking dangerous work.
But the reach of the authorities is ramping up here.
Image: Firefighters walk through the burned buildings after the deadly fire. Pic: AP
Yesterday a grass roots aid distribution centre was the vibrant heart of the response.
They received notice at 4am that they needed to pack up and move on. By 10.30am, the mountains of donations were gone, residents watched on, bewildered.
The task apparently will be handed over to professional NGOs.
“I think the government’s biggest concern is due to some past incidents,” one organiser tells us. “They may liken this to previous events. The essence looks similar.”
Image: Pic: AP
She’s careful with her words, but she’s clearly hinting at major pro-democracy protests that were crushed by authorities in 2019.
Any sort of mass gathering is now seen as a risk, the system is still very nervous.
And they might well be because people here are angry.
What, they ask, did the government know? What did it choose to ignore?
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How Hong Kong’s government failed to act on fire fears
Indeed, Sky News has learnt that residents raised their fears over fire safety connected to extensive renovations on Wang Fuk Court as early as September 2024.
They flagged the suspected flammability of green nets being used to cover the building.
An email response from the Labour Department was sent a few months later to Jason Poon, a civil engineer-turned-activist, who was working with residents. It insists that “the mesh’s flame retardant properties meet safety standards”.
But many clearly didn’t believe it. Posts spanning many months on a residents’ Facebook group continued to voice their fears.
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Hong Kong fire survivors supported by community
When a much smaller fire broke out in the city last month, one resident posted: “All the materials outside are flammable, I feel really worried.”
“I feel that same way” another replied. “The government has no sense of concern.”
For Poon, who dedicates much of his time to fighting lax safety standards in Hong Kong’s construction industry, the whole experience has been devastating.
“They knew all the maintenance was using corner-cutting materials, but they didn’t do anything,” he says.
“This is a man-made disaster.”
We put these allegations to Hong Kong’s Labour Department but they have not yet responded to our request for comment.
Grief may still be the prominent force here, but anger is not that far behind.
More than 300 people have died and dozens are missing following floods and landslides in Indonesia, which has also been hit by an earthquake.
Monsoon rains over the past week caused rivers to burst their banks in North Sumatra province.
The deluge tore through mountainside villages, swept away people and submerged thousands of houses and buildings, the National Disaster Management Agency said.
As rescue workers continued their efforts on Saturday, the head of the country’s disaster mitigation agency said the number of dead had risen to at least 303 people. Authorities fear the figure will increase.
Image: Flooded buildings in Medan, North Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Binsar Bakkara
Other Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have also been affected by torrential rain in the last week, with authorities working to rescue stranded citizens, restore power and communications and coordinate recovery efforts.
On Friday, the Thai government said 145 people had been killed by flooding across eight southern provinces, while two deaths have also been confirmed in Malaysia. Sri Lanka, in South Asia, has also seen 46 deaths following a cyclone, authorities said.
Image: Medan, North Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Binsar Bakkara
The extreme weather was driven by tropical cyclone Senyar, which formed in the Strait of Malacca, Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency said.
Rescuers in Indonesia have been struggling to reach some areas cut off by damaged roads, and where communications lines have come down.
Relief aircraft have been delivering aid and supplies to the hard-hit district of Central Tapanuli in North Sumatra and other provinces in the region.
Image: Tanah Datar, West Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Ali Nayaka
The agency said West Sumatra’s Agam district had also been affected.
Pictures of the rescue efforts show workers trudging through waist-deep mud and areas filled with tree trunks and debris, searching for any victims potentially trapped.
In Aceh province, flooded roads meant authorities struggled to get tractors and other heavy equipment to hilly hamlets which were hit by mud and rocks in the deluge.
Image: Malalak, West Sumatra. Pic: AP/ Nazar Chaniago
Hundreds of police officers, soldiers and residents dug through the debris with their bare hands and spades as heavy rain hindered their efforts.
Meanwhile, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake hit Sumatra island near Aceh province on Thursday, the country’s geophysics agency said.
Heavy seasonal rain from about October to March often causes flooding and landslides in Indonesia– an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands including Sumatra – where millions of people live in mountainous areas or near fertile floodplains.
Last week, almost 1,000 people from three villages on Java were forced to flee to shelters after the eruption of Mount Semeru, the island’s highest volcano.
The Pope has visited Istanbul’s Blue Mosque during a day spent meeting both Muslim and Christian leaders.
Pope Leo joined the imam at the 17th-century Ottoman-era mosque, officially called the Sultan Ahmed Mosque.
The trip marked part of the third day of his first overseas visit as head of the Catholic Church. He will travel to Lebanonon Sunday.
After the mosque visit, Leo held a private meeting with Turkey‘s Christian leaders at the Syriac Orthodox Church of Mor Ephrem.
Image: Pics: AP
While the Vatican had said Leo would observe a “brief minute of silent prayer” at the Blue Mosque, the imam said the pope declined.
Speaking to reporters after the visit, Asgin Tunca said he had told the Pope: “It’s not my house, not your house, (it’s the) house of Allah.”
The imam added that he told the Pope: “‘If you want, you can worship here,’ I said. But he said, ‘that’s OK.’
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“He wanted to see the mosque, wanted to feel (the) atmosphere of the mosque, I think. And was very pleased.”
Later, Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni said: “The Pope experienced his visit to the mosque in silence, in a spirit of contemplation and listening, with deep respect for the place and the faith of those who gather there in prayer.”
Image: Pic: AP
Image: File pic: CTK / AP
He is the latest pontiff to visit the holy site, with his recent predecessors Pope Francis and Pope Benedict also making visits in a gesture of respect to Turkey’s Muslim population.
Observing etiquette, Leo removed his shoes and walked through the carpeted mosque in his white socks.
Image: Pic: AP
However, he did not visit the Hagia Sophia, one of the most important historic cathedrals in Christianity and located just across from the Blue Mosque.
Image: A woman outside the Syriac Orthodox church of Mor Ephrem during Pope Leo XIV’s meeting. Pic: AP
The Pope is set to end Saturday with a Catholic Mass in Istanbul’s Volkswagen Arena for the country’s Catholic community.
A religious minority, there are around 33,000 Catholics in Turkey, which has a population of more than 85 million people, most of whom are Sunni Muslim.