‘Digital mimics’ among 16 projects launched to help NHS with winter pressure

Published

2 years ago

January 22, 2023

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Researchers are using artificial intelligence (AI) to “digitally mimic” households struggling with the impact of the cost of living crisis to simulate the most effective ways to help.

It’s one of more than a dozen projects spanning data analysis to machine learning that have been launched to help counter the winter pressures facing the NHS.

It comes as the health service buckles under the strain of large numbers of flu and COVID cases, a huge backlog exacerbated by the pandemic, and mounting wait times for ambulances and emergency and routine care.

The 16 projects, launched by Health Data Research UK (HDR), hope to deliver findings by the end of March.

Health Secretary Steve Barclay said the goal was to channel “the spirit of innovation” that led to the rapid rollout of coronavirus vaccines, with the government providing £800,000 in funding.

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While many of the projects seek to find ways of using technology to relieve pressure on hospital staff, others seek to address some of the root causes of the troubles facing the NHS.

One such initiative uses existing data and AI to “digitally mimic” household environments and simulate interventions that might improve the standard of people’s health at home – especially children.

Dr Martin Chapman, from King’s College London, explained: “Living in cold, damp, and mouldy homes leads to chest conditions in children and mental health problems in adolescents, and rising energy costs mean more people than ever are living with heat poverty.

“We’re investigating the effectiveness of interventions like support for energy bills on the health of young people by using AI to digitally mimic their household environments and evaluate the impact of simulated interventions.

“This will help guide future policy changes to improve health conditions, reduce inequalities, and in turn reduce pressures on NHS services.”

What are some of the projects?

Using the same infrastructure that powered Siren, which collated and published regular public data on COVID at the peak of the pandemic, the winter pressures sub-study will see it expand to include flu and a common children’s illness called Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV).

Another project aims to use AI to help clinicians more easily identify high-risk patients.

By analysing patient data, an AI model could suggest the most suitable ward for a patient to be on, those at most immediate risk of deterioration, and when someone should be discharged or not.

Also focused on hospital discharge times is a project called DS4SmartDischarge.

This uses machine learning (the process of teaching a computer to do something by itself) to help computers categorise patients based on the risk of different discharge outcomes.

Another team made up of health care workers, hospital leaders and the Society of Acute Medicine is also using machine learning to help build a model that identifies patients in need of same day emergency care.

Patients would be graded based on data like blood pressure, medications and bedside tests, helping staff make a decision within four hours of them coming to hospital.

Project lead Professor Elizabeth Sapey said the work would help with “reducing inequalities in care and relieving pressure on emergency services”.

‘Rapid response to evolving pressures’

While the projects come too late for the current crisis enveloping the health service, it is hoped they will produce results that help it better cope in the long term.

Professor Cathie Sudlow, chief scientist at HDR, said they would hone in on “key pain points” in the NHS.

“By using existing data, research teams, and infrastructure, these projects are able to respond rapidly to evolving pressures on the NHS,” she added.

Each of the projects has been partnered with analysts in the Department of Health, which sponsored the plans; the Office for National Statistics; and the UK Health Security Agency.

Once findings are delivered in March, it is hoped they will be published later in the year.

UK

Queen Camilla withdraws from engagements after becoming unwell with chest infection

Published

6 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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Queen Camilla withdraws from engagements after becoming unwell with chest infection

The Queen is unwell with a chest infection and has withdrawn from her engagements this week, Buckingham Palace has announced.

A palace spokesperson said Camilla’s doctors “have advised a short period of rest” and added that “with great regret, Her Majesty has therefore had to withdraw from her engagements for this week”.

They added the Queen “very much hopes to be recovered in time to attend this weekend’s Remembrance events as normal”.

“She apologises to all those who may be inconvenienced or disappointed as a result,” they said.

It is understood the Queen is currently resting at home and is under doctor’s supervision.

Birgitte, the Duchess of Gloucester, has stepped in on Camilla’s behalf to attend the annual opening of the Field of Remembrance at Westminster Abbey on Thursday.

The Queen has also withdrawn from a Buckingham Palace reception for Olympic and Paralympic athletes hosted by the King on the same evening.

Camilla recently returned from an overseas tour of Australia and Samoa. No further details regarding her illness or treatment have been released.

UK

Labour confirms U-turn on proposed ban on smoking and vaping in pub gardens

Published

6 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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Labour confirms U-turn on proposed ban on smoking and vaping in pub gardens

A proposed ban on vaping and smoking in pub gardens will not go ahead, the health secretary has confirmed.

Wes Streeting said the Labour government would not press ahead with the idea after it was floated over the summer and caused an outcry within the hospitality industry.

Back in August, Sir Keir Starmer said his government was considering a ban on outdoor smoking in a bid to bring down the 80,000 preventable deaths caused by smoking in the UK each year.

The ban would have covered smoking in outdoor restaurants and outside sports venues, hospitals, nightclubs, and in some small parks.

But speaking to Sky News this morning, Mr Streeting confirmed the U-turn and said: “We’re not going ahead or not proposing to go ahead with a [smoking] ban on outdoor hospitality.”

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He said the policy idea was a “leak of government discussion” over the summer and promoted a “really good debate about whether or not it would be proportionate” when taking into account the public health benefits, but also the potential downsides.

“I think people know the UK hospitality sector has taken a battering in recent years,” he added.

“And we don’t want to add to their pressure – so we’re not proposing to go ahead with an outdoor hospitality ban at this time.”

However, Mr Streeting did say that the smoking ban would be extended to some outdoor spaces, including schools, hospitals and children’s playgrounds.

It comes as the government today introduces a “groundbreaking” bill that aims to create the “first-ever smoke-free generation”.

The Tobacco and Vapes bill, which was first introduced by Rishi Sunak but was dropped due to the general election, will prevent anyone who was born on or after 1 January 2009 from buying tobacco.

The ban will effectively raise the legal age for buying cigarettes in England by one year every year, until it applies to the whole population.

The policy to create a “smoke-free generation” was seen as a defining one of Mr Sunak‘s premiership and caused controversy within Tory ranks, particularly the more libertarian wing of the party.

The bill will also create limits on the sale and marketing of vapes to children, while separate environmental legislation will be introduced to ban the sale and supply of single-use vapes by next summer.

The health secretary said “clamping down on the scourge of youth vaping” with licensing, tougher enforcement and a ban on the marketing of vapes to children and young people was “happily, an area of broad cross-party consensus”.

“I first proposed the generational ban for children, when I was the shadow health secretary,” he said.

“To my delight and surprise, Rishi Sunak took it up as prime minister and Conservative leader.

“I hope that cross-party support will sustain a new leader of the Conservative Party, but we’ll find out in the coming weeks.”

UK

Powys crash: Safety system ‘blocked’ before fatal train collision

Published

6 hours ago

November 5, 2024

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Powys crash: Safety system 'blocked' before fatal train collision

A safety system was “blocked” during a fatal train crash in Powys, an initial investigation has found.

The Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) has published its initial findings into last month’s collision, in which one person died.

David Tudor Evans, 66, was described as a “lovely guy, full of life and enjoyment”.

A further 15 people were taken to hospital for treatment after the crash near Talerddig, police said.

The collision – at around 7.26pm on 21 October – involved the 6.31pm Transport for Wales service from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth and the 7.09pm Transport for Wales service from Machynlleth to Shrewsbury.

The RAIB said the units were fitted with wheel slide protection systems – described as being similar to anti-lock braking systems in cars – and an automatic sanding system.

Sand is discharged automatically via hoses when a wheel slide is detected during braking – creating more friction at the wheel-rail interface.

The on-train data recorder shows the wheel slide started during braking and was also present after the driver made an emergency brake demand.

An inspection of the sanding system fitted to Aberystwyth-bound train 1J25 showed the leading vehicle’s sanding hoses were blocked.

The RAIB says they were apparently unable to discharge sand.

The ongoing investigation is also looking at the speed at which the trains were travelling when they collided.

Initial enquiries suggest the westbound train was travelling at a speed of between 15mph and 24mph, while the eastbound train was travelling at a speed of 6mph.

The RAIB says its investigation will look at the sequence of events which led to the crash.

As part of the probe, the agency will look at factors including the actions of those involved, the level of wheel-rail adhesion, and the behaviour of both trains during and after the crash.

In a joint statement, Transport for Wales and Network Rail said they have “fully cooperated” with the British Transport Police, the Office of Rail and Road and the Rail Accident Investigation Branch.

“As investigations are currently still ongoing, we’ll continue to work together with investigators to understand what happened and await the full conclusion and recommendations of the investigation,” a spokesperson said.

The spokesperson said safety was the “main priority” for both companies and they had “carried out enhanced checks to the trains and the railway line”.

“At this early stage of the investigation, it’s fundamental that we await the findings of the full report and show sensitivity towards our customers, colleagues, the local community and the families of those affected by the incident,” they added.