‘Digital mimics’ among 16 projects launched to help NHS with winter pressure
Researchers are using artificial intelligence (AI) to “digitally mimic” households struggling with the impact of the cost of living crisis to simulate the most effective ways to help.
It’s one of more than a dozen projects spanning data analysis to machine learning that have been launched to help counter the winter pressures facing the NHS.
It comes as the health service buckles under the strain of large numbers of flu and COVID cases, a huge backlog exacerbated by the pandemic, and mounting wait times for ambulances and emergency and routine care.
The 16 projects, launched by Health Data Research UK (HDR), hope to deliver findings by the end of March.
Health Secretary Steve Barclay said the goal was to channel “the spirit of innovation” that led to the rapid rollout of coronavirus vaccines, with the government providing £800,000 in funding.
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While many of the projects seek to find ways of using technology to relieve pressure on hospital staff, others seek to address some of the root causes of the troubles facing the NHS.
One such initiative uses existing data and AI to “digitally mimic” household environments and simulate interventions that might improve the standard of people’s health at home – especially children.
Dr Martin Chapman, from King’s College London, explained: “Living in cold, damp, and mouldy homes leads to chest conditions in children and mental health problems in adolescents, and rising energy costs mean more people than ever are living with heat poverty.
“We’re investigating the effectiveness of interventions like support for energy bills on the health of young people by using AI to digitally mimic their household environments and evaluate the impact of simulated interventions.
“This will help guide future policy changes to improve health conditions, reduce inequalities, and in turn reduce pressures on NHS services.”
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‘I couldn’t believe what I was seeing’
What are some of the projects?
Using the same infrastructure that powered Siren, which collated and published regular public data on COVID at the peak of the pandemic, the winter pressures sub-study will see it expand to include flu and a common children’s illness called Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV).
Another project aims to use AI to help clinicians more easily identify high-risk patients.
By analysing patient data, an AI model could suggest the most suitable ward for a patient to be on, those at most immediate risk of deterioration, and when someone should be discharged or not.
Also focused on hospital discharge times is a project called DS4SmartDischarge.
This uses machine learning (the process of teaching a computer to do something by itself) to help computers categorise patients based on the risk of different discharge outcomes.
Another team made up of health care workers, hospital leaders and the Society of Acute Medicine is also using machine learning to help build a model that identifies patients in need of same day emergency care.
Patients would be graded based on data like blood pressure, medications and bedside tests, helping staff make a decision within four hours of them coming to hospital.
Project lead Professor Elizabeth Sapey said the work would help with “reducing inequalities in care and relieving pressure on emergency services”.
‘Rapid response to evolving pressures’
While the projects come too late for the current crisis enveloping the health service, it is hoped they will produce results that help it better cope in the long term.
Professor Cathie Sudlow, chief scientist at HDR, said they would hone in on “key pain points” in the NHS.
“By using existing data, research teams, and infrastructure, these projects are able to respond rapidly to evolving pressures on the NHS,” she added.
Each of the projects has been partnered with analysts in the Department of Health, which sponsored the plans; the Office for National Statistics; and the UK Health Security Agency.
Once findings are delivered in March, it is hoped they will be published later in the year.
The UK-US trade deal has been signed and is “done”, US President Donald Trump has said as he met Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit.
The US president told reporters in Canada: “We signed it, and it’s done. It’s a fair deal for both. It’ll produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”
Sir Keir said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, describing it as a “really important agreement”.
“So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength,” the prime minister added.
Mr Trump added that the UK was “very well protected” against any future tariffs, saying: “You know why? Because I like them”.
However, he did not say whether levies on British steel exports to the US would be set to 0%, saying “we’re gonna let you have that information in a little while”.
Mr Trump also praised Sir Keir as a “great” prime minister, adding: “We’ve been talking about this deal for six years, and he’s done what they haven’t been able to do.”
He added: “We’re very longtime partners and allies and friends and we’ve become friends in a short period of time.
“He’s slightly more liberal than me to put it mildly… but we get along.”
Sir Keir added that “we make it work”.
As the pair exited a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies where the summit is being held, Mr Trump held up a physical copy of the trade agreement to show reporters.
Several leaves of paper fell from the binding, and Sir Keir quickly stooped to pick them up, saying: “A very important document.”
Sir Keir Starmer picks up paper from the UK-US trade deal after Donald Trump dropped it at the G7 summit. Pic: Reuters
The US president also appeared to mistakenly refer to a “trade agreement with the European Union” at one point as he stood alongside the British prime minister.
Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on countries in April. At the time, he announced 10% “reciprocal” rates on all UK exports – as well as separately announced 25% levies on cars and steel.
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In a joint televised phone call in May, Sir Keir and Mr Trump announced the UK and US had agreed on a trade deal – but added the details were being finalised.
Ahead of the G7 summit, the prime minister said he would meet Mr Trump for “one-on-one” talks, and added the agreement “really matters for the vital sectors that are safeguarded under our deal, and we’ve got to implement that”.
Whitehall officials tried to convince Michael Gove to go to court to cover up the grooming scandal in 2011, Sky News can reveal.
Dominic Cummings, who was working for Lord Gove at the time, has told Sky News that officials in the Department for Education (DfE) wanted to help efforts by Rotherham Council to stop a national newspaper from exposing the scandal.
In an interview with Sky News, Mr Cummings said that officials wanted a “total cover-up”.
Politics latest: Grooming gangs findings unveiled
The revelation shines a light on the institutional reluctance of some key officials in central government to publicly highlight the grooming gang scandal.
In 2011, Rotherham Council approached the Department for Education asking for help following inquiries by The Times. The paper’s then chief reporter, the late Andrew Norfolk, was asking about sexual abuse and trafficking of children in Rotherham.
The council went to Lord Gove’s Department for Education for help. Officials considered the request and then recommended to Lord Gove’s office that the minister back a judicial review which might, if successful, stop The Times publishing the story.
Lord Gove rejected the request on the advice of Mr Cummings. Sources have independently confirmed Mr Cummings’ account.
Education Secretary Michael Gove in 2011. Pic: PA
Mr Cummings told Sky News: “Officials came to me in the Department of Education and said: ‘There’s this Times journalist who wants to write the story about these gangs. The local authority wants to judicially review it and stop The Times publishing the story’.
“So I went to Michael Gove and said: ‘This council is trying to actually stop this and they’re going to use judicial review. You should tell the council that far from siding with the council to stop The Times you will write to the judge and hand over a whole bunch of documents and actually blow up the council’s JR (judicial review).’
“Some officials wanted a total cover-up and were on the side of the council…
“They wanted to help the local council do the cover-up and stop The Times’ reporting, but other officials, including in the DfE private office, said this is completely outrageous and we should blow it up. Gove did, the judicial review got blown up, Norfolk stories ran.”
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Grooming gangs victim speaks out
The judicial review wanted by officials would have asked a judge to decide about the lawfulness of The Times’ publication plans and the consequences that would flow from this information entering the public domain.
A second source told Sky News that the advice from officials was to side with Rotherham Council and its attempts to stop publication of details it did not want in the public domain.
One of the motivations cited for stopping publication would be to prevent the identities of abused children entering the public domain.
There was also a fear that publication could set back the existing attempts to halt the scandal, although incidents of abuse continued for many years after these cases.
Sources suggested that there is also a natural risk aversion amongst officials to publicity of this sort.
Read more on grooming gangs:
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A timeline of the scandal
Mr Cummings, who ran the Vote Leave Brexit campaign and was Boris Johnson’s right-hand man in Downing Street, has long pushed for a national inquiry into grooming gangs to expose failures at the heart of government.
He said the inquiry, announced today, “will be a total s**tshow for Whitehall because it will reveal how much Whitehall worked to try and cover up the whole thing.”
He also described Mr Johnson, with whom he has a long-standing animus, as a “moron’ for saying that money spent on inquiries into historic child sexual abuse had been “spaffed up the wall”.
Asked by Sky News political correspondent Liz Bates why he had not pushed for a public inquiry himself when he worked in Number 10 in 2019-20, Mr Cummings said Brexit and then COVID had taken precedence.
“There are a million things that I wanted to do but in 2019 we were dealing with the constitutional crisis,” he said.
The Department for Education and Rotherham Council have been approached for comment.
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