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close video Hard to get inflation down without a recession: Furman

Harvard economist Jason Furman shares his economic outlook for 2023, focusing on recession fears, the Federal Reserves agenda and geopolitical factors.

A number of business taxes are rising just as the U.S. economy faces the increased risk of a recession, threatening to prolong financial pain for many companies and consumers.

Beginning this year, businesses will face a steeper federal tax burden thanks to several major changes included in the health care and climate change spending bill that Democrats passed over the summer. On top of that, key provisions of the 2017 Republican tax overhaul are set to phase out this year.

Combined, the tax increases are projected to cost businesses about $115 billion this year – a big increase from years' past, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.

"On the impact of tax increases in a recessionary period, we are highly concerned," Chris Netram, the managing vice president of tax and domestic economic policy at the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), told FOX Business. "Some of the items that have already taken effect, that Congress failed to reverse at the end of last year, are causing a lot of pain for our members."

NEW YORK, CALIFORNIA SUFFER BIGGEST BLOW AS MORE AMERICANS FLEE TO LOW-TAX STATES

The U.S. Capitol (Anna Rose Layden / Getty Images / File / Getty Images)

Among the increases going into effect this year is a 15% minimum tax on corporations that is based on profits they publicly report on their financial statements to shareholders. The minimum book tax would only hit companies that reported more than $1 billion in income. The levy – a key feature of the Inflation Reduction Act – would affect around 200 of the country's largest corporations with profits exceeding $1 billion and that pay less than the current 21% rate for businesses, according to Democrats.

That spending bill also included a 1% tax on stock repurchases, which will apply to only publicly traded companies.

Experts expect the two taxes to drag on 2023 earnings, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 1.5% decline per share of S&P 500 companies. The earnings decreases are expected to hit industries like health care and IT because of the low effective tax rate.

UBS strategists led by Solita Marcelli, meanwhile, projected the new taxes would have a "very minimal 1% drag on S&P 500 earnings per share, although some companies will be more affected than others."

President Joe Biden signs the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (climate change and health care bill) into law at the White House on Aug. 16, 2022. (Demetrius Freeman / The Washington Post via Getty Images / Getty Images)

NEW IRS TAX BRACKETS TAKE EFFECT IN 2023, MEANING YOUR PAYCHECK COULD BE BIGGER

Those changes come on top of other business tax increases that went into place last year to help pay for Republicans' 2017 tax cuts and will stay in effect until 2026. That includes the gradual phaseout of a 100% bonus depreciation, tighter interest deduction limitation and an increase in international tax rates.

Another provision requires businesses to amortize deductions for research and development expenses over five years instead of taking them all at once. Nearly 180 chief financial officers asked lawmakers in November to reverse course and repeal the law before the end of the year, however, Congress failed to reach an agreement before its last session in December.

Aerospace and defense company Raytheon Technologies said in October that the change already caused its tax bill to spike by $1.5 billion.

Aerospace and defense company Raytheon Technologies said in October that the change already caused its tax bill to spike by $1.5 billion. (AP Photo / Elise Amendola / File / AP Newsroom)

Goldman Sachs sees the R&D, interest and bonus depreciation changes raising the effective corporate tax rate this year by 1.6 percentage points, amounting to a "small" reduction in earnings.

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"Corporate tax policies taking effect in 2023 should have a small hit to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, but the impact will vary across sectors," the bank said in a research note earlier this month.

Netram said NAM is lobbying lawmakers to reverse the changes, particularly on R&D, and indicated there is bipartisan and bicameral support to do so.

"For this current Congress, we are starting in a really strong place," he said. "There is broad support for stopping these tax hikes from going into effect."

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Robbie Williams reveals Gary Barlow collaboration on new album Britpop

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Robbie Williams reveals Gary Barlow collaboration on new album Britpop

Robbie Williams has revealed details of several star collaborations on his upcoming album, Britpop – including a track with Gary Barlow.

The former Take That singer teased details at a launch event for the record, which will be his first studio album of original songs in almost a decade.

He also announced he will play his “smallest-ever ticketed gig” as an intimate show for 500 fans, performing both his debut album Life Thru A Lens and Britpop in their entirety, following his current European stadium tour.

Williams and Barlow performing together in 2010. Pic: AP/ Mark Allan
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Williams and Barlow performing together in 2010. Pic: AP/ Mark Allan

Williams listed some of the artists he has collaborated with on the new album, including Black Sabbath‘s Tony Iommi, Coldplay’s Chris Martin, Supergrass frontman Gaz Coombes, and Barlow.

The relationship between the Take That stars famously deteriorated after Williams left the group, but the pair fixed their friendship in later years – and the Angels star reunited with the band for their Progress tour in 2011.

Their song on Britpop is called Morrissey, about the singer-songwriter and former frontman of The Smiths.

Answering questions from comedian Joe Lycett, who hosted the event, Williams said the song was written from the point of view of “somebody that is stalking Morrissey and is completely obsessed and in love with him”, but did not give any further detail.

Coldplay's Chris Martin also collaborated on the album. Pic: Charles Sykes/Invision/AP 2024
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Coldplay’s Chris Martin also collaborated on the album. Pic: Charles Sykes/Invision/AP 2024

Another track, Human, is about AI. “We are being told that we’re all about to be replaced, and we need clothes and we need food, so there’s a chance that we will be removed,” Williams said. “Whether it’s a prophecy, we shall see. But, yeah. It’s a song about what we’ve been told about AI.”

The singer rose to fame in Take That in the early 1990s before quitting and going on to have huge success as a solo star, with hit songs including Let Me Entertain You, Angels, Feel, No Regrets and She’s The One.

In 2023, he reflected on his life and career in a documentary series, in which he spoke about his struggles with the limelight and his mental health at the height of his fame. Last year’s Better Man – a biopic of his life in which the star was portrayed as a monkey – also tackled those issues.

Take That in their 1990s heyday: (L - R) Gary Barlow, Howard Donald, Mark Owen, Williams and Jason Orange. Pic: PA
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Take That in their 1990s heyday: (L – R) Gary Barlow, Howard Donald, Mark Owen, Williams and Jason Orange. Pic: PA

Now, he says he is back with the kind of album he would have loved to have released after he left Take That in 1995 – the “peak of Britpop” and the year of Oasis’s (What’s the Story) Morning Glory?, Pulp’s Different Class, and Blur’s The Great Escape.

“I’ve kind of been musically a bit aimless for a little while because I haven’t known really what to do,” Williams said at the Britpop launch. “I chased yesterday an awful lot. Which happens.”

When you become hugely successful and then “commercial radio, whatever, stops playing you… you think, shit, what was it that I did?” he continued. “I just spent the last 15 years looking backwards. And I think with this album, if I am going to look backwards, I might as well just clear the decks, go back to the start and head off from there.”

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Williams also spoke about other projects, including artwork and investment in arts education. “I want the entertainment industry to be somebody’s Plan A and Plan B,” he said.

“You know when you go to your parents, you say, ‘I want to be a singer, I want to be a dancer or be an actor, I want to go into the entertainment industry’. [The response is] ‘You better have a Plan B.’ I want to create the Plan B for people, too.”

Robbie Williams will play at Dingwalls in Camden on 9 October. Britpop is out the following day.

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Kneecap rapper greeted by hundreds of supporters at terror charge court hearing

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Kneecap rapper greeted by hundreds of supporters as he arrives at court on terror charge

A member of rap trio Kneecap has been released on unconditional bail after appearing in court charged with supporting a proscribed terror organisation – as hundreds turned out to support him outside.

Liam Og O hAnnaidh, who performs under the name Mo Chara, is accused of displaying a flag in support of Hezbollah at a gig in London in November last year.

Demonstrators waving flags and holding banners in support of the rapper greeted him with cheers as he made his way into Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Wednesday morning.

The rapper was mobbed by supporters and media. Pics: PA
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The rapper was mobbed by supporters and media. Pics: PA

Supported by his Kneecap bandmates Naoise O Caireallain and JJ O Dochartaigh, it took O hAnnaidh more than a minute to enter the building as security officers worked to usher him inside through a crowd of photographers and supporters.

Fans held signs which read “Free Mo Chara”, while others waved Irish and Palestinian flags.

As the hearing got under way, O hAnnaidh confirmed his name, date of birth and address. An Irish language interpreter was present in court.

During a previous hearing, prosecutors said the 27-year-old is “well within his rights” to voice his opinions on the Israel-Palestine conflict, but said the alleged incident at the O2 Forum in Kentish Town was a “wholly different thing”.

O hAnnaidh is yet to enter a plea to the charge. The case has been adjourned for legal argument and he will appear in court for a further hearing on 26 September.

Bandmates Naoise O Caireallain (pictured, centre) and JJ O Dochartaigh are supporting O hAnnaidh. Pic: Reuters
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Bandmates Naoise O Caireallain (pictured, centre) and JJ O Dochartaigh are supporting O hAnnaidh. Pic: Reuters

Who are Kneecap?

Kneecap put out their first single in 2017 and rose to wider prominence in 2024 after the release of their debut album and an eponymously titled film – a fictionalised retelling of how the band came together and their fight to save the Irish language.

The film, in which the trio play themselves and co-star alongside starring Oscar nominee Michael Fassbender, won the BAFTA for outstanding debut earlier this year, for director and writer Rich Peppiatt.

Last year, Kneecap won a discrimination case against the UK government after Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tried to refuse them a £14,250 funding award when she was business secretary.

They are known for songs including H.O.O.D, Fine Art, and Better Way To Live, featuring Fontaines DC frontman Grian Chatten, with lyrics switching between the Irish language and English.

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BBC and Channel 4 should ‘merge’ to survive, Sir Phil Redmond says

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BBC and Channel 4 should 'merge' to survive, Sir Phil Redmond says

One of Britain’s most legendary TV dramatists, Sir Phil Redmond, is no stranger to tackling difficult issues on screen.

Courting controversy famously with his hard-hitting storylines on his children’s show Grange Hill for the BBC in 1978, before he switched over to Channel 4 to give it its two most prominent soaps, Brookside (1982) and later Hollyoaks (1995).

He’s been a pivotal figure at Channel 4 from its inception, widely considered to be a father to the channel.

Sir Phil Redmond says the BBC and Channel 4 should team up to survive
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Sir Phil Redmond says the BBC and Channel 4 should team up to survive

While he’s been responsible for putting some of TV’s most impactful storylines to air for them – from the first lesbian kiss, to bodies buried under patios – off-screen nowadays, he’s equally radical about what should happen.

“Channel 4’s job in 1980 was to provide a platform for the voices, ideas, and people that weren’t able to break through into television. They did a fantastic job. I was part of that, and now it’s done.”

It’s not that he wants to kill off Channel 4 but – as broadcasting bosses gather for Edinburgh’s annual TV Festival – he believes they urgently should be talking about mergers.

A suggestion which goes down about as well as you might imagine, he says, when he brings it up with those at the top.

He laughs: “The people with the brains think it’s a good idea, the people who’ve got the expense accounts think it’s horrendous.”

Some of the original Grange Hill cast collecting a BAFTA special award in 2001. Pic: Shutterstock
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Some of the original Grange Hill cast collecting a BAFTA special award in 2001. Pic: Shutterstock

A ‘struggling’ BBC trying to ‘survive’

With charter renewal talks under way to determine the BBC’s future funding, Sir Phil says “there’s only one question, and that is what’s going to happen to the BBC?”

“We’ve got two public sector broadcasters – the BBC and Channel 4 – both owned by the government, by us as the taxpayers, and what they’re trying to do now is survive, right?

“No bureaucracy ever deconstructs itself… the BBC is struggling… Channel 4 has got about a billion quid coming in a year. If you mix that, all the transmissions, all the back office stuff, all the technical stuff, all that cash… you can keep that kind of coterie of expertise on youth programming and then say ‘don’t worry about the money, just go out and do what you used to do, upset people!’.”

Brookside's lesbian kiss between Margaret and Beth (L-R Nicola Stapleton and Anna Friel) was groundbreaking TV. Pic: Shutterstock
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Brookside’s lesbian kiss between Margaret and Beth (L-R Nicola Stapleton and Anna Friel) was groundbreaking TV. Pic: Shutterstock

How feasible would that be?

Redmond claims, practically, you could pull it off in a week – “we could do it now, it’s very simple, it’s all about keyboards and switches”.

But the screenwriter admits that winning people over mentally to his way of thinking would take a few years of persuading.

As for his thoughts on what could replace the BBC licence fee, he says charging people to download BBC apps on their phones seems like an obvious source of income.

“There are 25 million licences and roughly 90 million mobile phones. If you put a small levy on each mobile phone, you could reduce the actual cost of the licence fee right down, and then it could just be tagged on to VAT.

“Those parts are just moving the tax system around a bit. [Then] you wouldn’t have to worry about all the criminality and single mothers being thrown in jail, all this kind of nonsense.”

Original Brookside stars at BAFTA - L:R: Michael Starke, Dean Sullivan, Claire Sweeney and Sue Jenkins. Pic: PA
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Original Brookside stars at BAFTA – L:R: Michael Starke, Dean Sullivan, Claire Sweeney and Sue Jenkins. Pic: PA

‘Subsidising through streaming is not the answer’

Earlier this year, Peter Kosminsky, the director of historical drama Wolf Hall, suggested a levy on UK streaming revenues could fund more high-end British TV on the BBC.

Sir Phil describes that as “a sign of desperation”.

“If you can’t actually survive within your own economic basis, you shouldn’t be doing it.

“I don’t think top slicing or subsidising one aspect of the business is the answer, you have to just look at the whole thing as a totality.”

Mark Rylance (L) and Damian Lewis in Wolf Hall: The Mirror And The Light. Pic: BBC
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Mark Rylance (L) and Damian Lewis in Wolf Hall: The Mirror And The Light. Pic: BBC

Since selling his production company, Mersey Television, two decades ago, much of his current work has focused on acting as an ambassador for the culture and creative industries.

Although he’s taken a step away from television, he admits he’s disappointed by how risk-averse programme makers appear to have become.

“Dare I say it? There needs to be an intellectual foundation to it all.”

The Hollyoaks cast in 1995. Pic: Shutterstock
Image:
The Hollyoaks cast in 1995. Pic: Shutterstock

TV’s ‘missing a trick’

He believes TV bosses are too scared of being fined by Ofcom, and that’s meant soaps are not going as far as they should.

“The benefits [system], you know, immigration, all these things are really relevant subjects for drama to bring out all the arguments, the conflicts.

“The majority of the people know the benefits system is broken, that it needs to be fixed because they see themselves living on their estate with a 10 or 12-year-old car and then there’s someone else down the road who knows how to fill a form in, and he’s driving around in a £65k BMW, right? Those debates would be really great to bring out on TV, they’re missing a trick.”

While some of TV’s biggest executives are slated to speak at the Edinburgh Television Festival, Redmond is not convinced they will be open to listening.

“They will go where the perceived wisdom is as to where the industry is going. The fact that the industry is taking a wrong turn, we really need somebody else to come along and go ‘Oi!'”

When I ask if that could be him, he laughs. Cue dramatic music and closing credits. As plot twists go, the idea of one of TV’s most radical voices making a boardroom comeback to stir the pot, realistic or not, is at the very least food for thought for the industry.

Edinburgh TV Festival runs from 19 – 22 August.

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