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close video Hard to get inflation down without a recession: Furman

Harvard economist Jason Furman shares his economic outlook for 2023, focusing on recession fears, the Federal Reserves agenda and geopolitical factors.

A number of business taxes are rising just as the U.S. economy faces the increased risk of a recession, threatening to prolong financial pain for many companies and consumers.

Beginning this year, businesses will face a steeper federal tax burden thanks to several major changes included in the health care and climate change spending bill that Democrats passed over the summer. On top of that, key provisions of the 2017 Republican tax overhaul are set to phase out this year.

Combined, the tax increases are projected to cost businesses about $115 billion this year – a big increase from years' past, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.

"On the impact of tax increases in a recessionary period, we are highly concerned," Chris Netram, the managing vice president of tax and domestic economic policy at the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), told FOX Business. "Some of the items that have already taken effect, that Congress failed to reverse at the end of last year, are causing a lot of pain for our members."

NEW YORK, CALIFORNIA SUFFER BIGGEST BLOW AS MORE AMERICANS FLEE TO LOW-TAX STATES

The U.S. Capitol (Anna Rose Layden / Getty Images / File / Getty Images)

Among the increases going into effect this year is a 15% minimum tax on corporations that is based on profits they publicly report on their financial statements to shareholders. The minimum book tax would only hit companies that reported more than $1 billion in income. The levy – a key feature of the Inflation Reduction Act – would affect around 200 of the country's largest corporations with profits exceeding $1 billion and that pay less than the current 21% rate for businesses, according to Democrats.

That spending bill also included a 1% tax on stock repurchases, which will apply to only publicly traded companies.

Experts expect the two taxes to drag on 2023 earnings, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 1.5% decline per share of S&P 500 companies. The earnings decreases are expected to hit industries like health care and IT because of the low effective tax rate.

UBS strategists led by Solita Marcelli, meanwhile, projected the new taxes would have a "very minimal 1% drag on S&P 500 earnings per share, although some companies will be more affected than others."

President Joe Biden signs the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (climate change and health care bill) into law at the White House on Aug. 16, 2022. (Demetrius Freeman / The Washington Post via Getty Images / Getty Images)

NEW IRS TAX BRACKETS TAKE EFFECT IN 2023, MEANING YOUR PAYCHECK COULD BE BIGGER

Those changes come on top of other business tax increases that went into place last year to help pay for Republicans' 2017 tax cuts and will stay in effect until 2026. That includes the gradual phaseout of a 100% bonus depreciation, tighter interest deduction limitation and an increase in international tax rates.

Another provision requires businesses to amortize deductions for research and development expenses over five years instead of taking them all at once. Nearly 180 chief financial officers asked lawmakers in November to reverse course and repeal the law before the end of the year, however, Congress failed to reach an agreement before its last session in December.

Aerospace and defense company Raytheon Technologies said in October that the change already caused its tax bill to spike by $1.5 billion.

Aerospace and defense company Raytheon Technologies said in October that the change already caused its tax bill to spike by $1.5 billion. (AP Photo / Elise Amendola / File / AP Newsroom)

Goldman Sachs sees the R&D, interest and bonus depreciation changes raising the effective corporate tax rate this year by 1.6 percentage points, amounting to a "small" reduction in earnings.

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"Corporate tax policies taking effect in 2023 should have a small hit to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, but the impact will vary across sectors," the bank said in a research note earlier this month.

Netram said NAM is lobbying lawmakers to reverse the changes, particularly on R&D, and indicated there is bipartisan and bicameral support to do so.

"For this current Congress, we are starting in a really strong place," he said. "There is broad support for stopping these tax hikes from going into effect."

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It’s MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways

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It's MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways

It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!

Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.

While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?

We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.


MLB Home Run Derby field

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)


Live updates


Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?

Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.

Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.

Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.

His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.

Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.

Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.


Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?

Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.

Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.

Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.

Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.

Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.


Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?

Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.

Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.


What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?

Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.

Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!

Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.

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Report: Sternberg to sell Rays for $1.7 billion

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Report: Sternberg to sell Rays for .7 billion

Tampa Bay Rays owner Stu Sternberg has agreed in principle to a $1.7 billion deal to sell the franchise to a group led by a Florida-based developer Patrick Zalupski, according to a report from The Athletic.

The deal is reportedly expected to be closed as early as September and will keep the franchise in the area, with Zalupski, a homebuilder in Jacksonville, having a strong preference to land in Tampa rather than St. Petersburg.

Sternberg bought the Rays in 2004 for $200 million.

According to Zalupski’s online bio, he is the founder, president and CEO of Dream Finders Homes. The company was founded in December 2008 and closed on 27 homes in Jacksonville the following year. Now, with an expanded footprint to many parts of the United States, Dream Finders has closed on more than 31,100 homes since its founding.

He also is a member of the board of trustees at the University of Florida.

The new ownership group also reportedly includes Bill Cosgrove, the CEO of Union Home Mortgage, and Ken Babby, owner of the Akron RubberDucks and Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, both minor-league teams.

A year ago, Sternberg had a deal in place to build a new stadium in the Historic Gas Plant District, a reimagined recreational, retail and residential district in St. Petersburg to replace Tropicana Field.

However, after Hurricane Milton shredded the roof of the stadium last October, forcing the Rays into temporary quarters, Sternberg changed his tune, saying the team would have to bear excess costs that were not in the budget.

“After careful deliberation, we have concluded we cannot move forward with the new ballpark and development project at this moment,” Sternberg said in a statement in March. “A series of events beginning in October that no one could have anticipated led to this difficult decision.”

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and some other owners began in March to privately push Sternberg to sell the franchise, The Athletic reported.

It is unclear what Zalupski’s group, if it ultimately goes through with the purchase and is approved by MLB owners, will do for a permanent stadium.

The Rays are playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, located at the site of the New York Yankees‘ spring training facility and home of their Single-A Tampa Tarpons.

Field Level Media contributed to this report.

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Ohtani hits leadoff for NL; Raleigh cleanup for AL

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Ohtani hits leadoff for NL; Raleigh cleanup for AL

ATLANTA — Shohei Ohtani will bat leadoff as the designated hitter for the National League in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game at Truist Park, and the Los Angeles Dodgers star will be followed in the batting order by left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. of the host Atlanta Braves.

Arizona second baseman Ketel Marte will hit third in the batting order announced Monday by Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, followed by Los Angeles first baseman Freddie Freeman, San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado, Dodgers catcher Will Smith, Chicago Cubs right fielder Kyle Tucker, New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor and Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes will start his second straight All-Star Game, Major League Baseball announced last week. Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal will make his first All-Star start for the American League.

“I think when you’re talking about the game, where it’s at, these two guys … are guys that you can root for, are super talented, are going to be faces of this game for years to come,” Roberts said.

Detroit second baseman Gleyber Torres will lead off for the AL, followed by Tigers left fielder Riley Greene, New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge, Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero, Tigers center fielder Javy Báez and Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson.

Ohtani led off for the AL in the 2021 All-Star Game, when the two-way sensation also was the AL’s starting pitcher. He hit leadoff in 2022, then was the No. 2 hitter for the AL in 2023 and for the NL last year after leaving the Los Angeles Angels for the Dodgers.

Skenes and Skubal are Nos. 1-2 in average four-seam fastball velocity among those with 1,500 or more pitches this season, Skenes at 98.2 mph and Skubal at 97.6 mph, according to MLB Statcast.

A 23-year-old right-hander, Skenes is 4-8 despite a major league-best 2.01 ERA for the Pirates, who are last in the NL Central. The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year has 131 strikeouts and 30 walks in 131 innings.

Skubal, a 28-year-old left-hander, is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. He is 10-3 with a 2.23 ERA, striking out 153 and walking 16 in 121 innings.

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