Tesla (TSLA) is about to release Q4 2022 and full-year 2022 financial results on Wednesday, January 25, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here we’ll take a look at what both the street and retail investors are expecting for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q4 2022 deliveries
As usual, Tesla already disclosed its Q4 vehicle delivery and production numbers, which drive the vast majority of the company’s revenue.
This is a delivery record for Tesla, but the automaker actually came significantly below expectations. There was also a record discrepancy between vehicles produced and vehicles delivered. Tesla produced 439,000 vehicles during the quarter.
Delivery and production numbers are always slightly adjusted during earning results.
Tesla Q4 2022 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $24.669 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a higher revenue of $24.879 billion.
This would be a record quarter for revenue, thanks to the record deliveries, but it’s hard to estimate due to Tesla offering some significant discounts in December.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
Tesla Q4 2022 earnings
Tesla always attempts to be marginally profitable every quarter as it invests most of its money into growth, and it has been successful in doing so over the last two years now.
For Q4 2022, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $1.13 per share, while Estimize’s prediction is higher with a profit of $1.19 per share.
The estimates have a wide range this quarter because of the discounts that Tesla offered in December. It most likely significantly impacted gross margins, but it’s hard to say by how much without knowing how many cars Tesla delivered last month.
The automaker also had over 30,000 vehicles in inventory or transit at the end of the quarter, which is also going to impact earnings negatively.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst call
In the shareholder’s letter and the following conference call, Tesla generally shares additional details about not only financial results, but also other important metrics on how the company is doing.
CEO Elon Musk is not always on the call, but this time, he is expected to be since it’s not only the Q4 earnings but also the full 2022 earnings.
Generally, the full-year earnings are also when a company releases guidance for the new year, but Tesla is not like most companies.
Tesla has consistently just reiterated its intention to remain marginally profitable as it reinvests into its business and aims for about 50% growth in deliveries per year.
However, the automaker generally shares its planned capital expenditure for the year, so we can expect that.
Interestingly, Tesla recently announced a new “Investor Day” in March that sounds a lot like an earnings conference call or an annual shareholder meeting, so it’s possible that Tesla keeps some of the more juicy stuff that would have been said at the earnings for this Investor Day.
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A new video surfacing from a Tesla demonstration in Miami this weekend shows the Optimus humanoid robot taking a nasty fall. But it’s not the fall itself that is raising eyebrows, it’s the specific hand movements the robot made on its way down, which strongly suggest it was mimicking a remote operator frantically removing a VR headset.
Humanoid robots are all the hype right now. Billions in investments are pouring in, and Elon Musk claims it will be a trillion-dollar product for Tesla, justifying its insane valuation.
The idea has been that with the advent of AI, robots in human form could use the new generalized artificial intelligence to replace humans in an increasingly larger number of tasks.
However, there are still many serious concerns about the effort, both at the ethical and technological levels.
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Technologically, most humanoid robot demonstrations have relied on remote control by human operators – pointing to a remaining gap between the software and hardware.
That was more than a year ago, and despite claims that Tesla has made “AI demos” of Optimus since, it appears the company still relies on teleoperation to control them during demonstrations.
The Tesla Optimus Miami Incident
This weekend, Tesla held an event called ‘Autonomy Visualized’ at its store in Miami. The goal was to showcase Tesla’s “Autopilot technology and Optimus.”
However, there was nothing “autonomous” at Tesla’s “autonomy” event.
Many Tesla fans were seen posting videos of a Tesla Optimus robot handing out bottles of water at the event. It was also seen posing for pictures and dancing.
On Reddit, someone posted a different video of the demonstration:
As you can see, Tesla Optimus moved its hands too quickly, causing some water bottles to drop to the ground. It then loses its balance and begins to fall backward.
But the most interesting part is that just before falling backward, both of its hands immediately shoot up to its “face” in a distinct grasping motion, as if pulling an object off its head.
The robot, of course, is not wearing anything on its head.
The motion is instantly recognizable to anyone who has used VR or watched teleoperation setups. It appears the human operator, likely located backstage or in a remote facility, removed their headset in the middle of operating the robot for unknown reasons.
Optimus faithfully replicated the motion of removing a non-existent headset as it crashed to the floor.
Here’s a look at how Tesla trained Pptimus with VR headsets in its lab:
Electrek’s Take
This is embarrassing, but not just because the robot fell. Robots fall; that’s part of the R&D process. Boston Dynamics blooper reels are legendary, and they never really eroded the company’s credibility.
The problem here is the “Wizard of Oz” moment.
The specific motion of removing the “phantom headset” destroys the illusion of autonomy Tesla tries so hard to curate.
Even recently, Musk fought back against the notion that Tesla relies on teleoperation for its Optimus demonstration. He specified that a new demo of Optimus doing kung-fu was “AI, not tele-operated”:
Musk said again during Tesla’s last earnings call in October:
“Optimus was at the Tron premiere doing kung fu, just up in the open, with Jared Leto. Nobody was controlling it. It was just doing kung fu with Jared Leto at the Tron Premier. You can see the videos online. The funny thing is, a lot of people walked past it thinking it was just a person.”
Musk keeps telling shareholders that Optimus will be the biggest product in history and that millions of units will be working in factories soon. But if they are still relying on 1:1 teleoperation to hand out water bottles right now, it feels like we are still far away from a useful generalized Optimus robot.
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After images of an the new mid-sized electric crossover were leaked by the Chinese MIIT, Nissan pulled the wraps off its all-new NX8 – and it looks so good, I’m wondering if it couldn’t spearhead the brand’s American turnaround.
Like its sedan siblings, the all-electric version of Nissan NX8 crossover rolls on an 800V system architecture and features a CATL-sourced LFP battery pack with 5C ultra-fast charging technology (xC is how many you can charge in an hour, effectively, so 60 minutes divided by 5 = it can charge in as little as 12 minutes). That battery reportedly sends power to a single electric motor putting out either 215 kW (~290 hp) or 250 kW (~335 hp), depending on model.
EREV version of the NX8, meanwhile, features a similar setup to the N6, pairing a 1.5L ICE producing 109 kW (~145 hp) with a 195 kW (~260 hp) electric motor. Expect the NX8 EREV to get slightly less than the N6’s claimed 112 miles of electric-only range (Chinese cycle).
The NX8 is expected to reach its first customers in April 2026. Take a look at some of the firs official photos of the new Nissan crossover, below, then let us know how you think this would do in the US in the comments section at the bottom of the page.
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This week, BYD crossed a major manufacturing milestone as its battery production crossed 113 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025 – but instead of celebrating, the company is doubling down with a new “Zero Defects” initiative to bring battery quality to an even higher level.
CarNewsChina reports that the new “Zero Defects” plan at BYD was launched internally at the start of Q3, with a focus on minimizing manufacturing defects across all stages of the battery’s life, from the manufacturing line to the end user.
The initiative coincides with BYD’s growing role as a battery supplier to other automakers and its expanding battery energy storage system (BESS) business, which are giving BYD both an international footprint and global benchmarks.
In its ongoing bid to prove itself even further in the global battery market, BYD will reportedly emphasize operational efficiency, error reduction, and standardization across manufacturing, process control, and customer service, with the end goal believed to be, “management practices comparable to those of Toyota.”
Note that BYD has not released official details regarding performance metrics or milestones for its new Zero Defects goal, but the message is clear: BYD plans to keep getting better.
SOURCE: CarNewsChina; images via BYD.
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