NHL Power Rankings: Projecting playoff chances for all 32 teams
The 2023 NHL All-Star Game is on tap next weekend, and once the break is over, the volume of trades should really start heating up as teams fall into the “playoff contender” and “there’s always next year” cohorts.
As of this point, there are no teams that have clinched a playoff spot, and no team is mathematically eliminated either. So let’s take a look at each team’s current playoff chances (per FiveThirtyEight), and identify what could go right or wrong to reverse that trend.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors rates teams against one another — taking into account game results, injuries and upcoming schedule — and those results are tabulated to produce the list featured here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the most recent edition, published Jan. 20. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 83.33%
Next seven days: @ FLA (Jan. 28), @ CAR (Jan. 29), @ TOR (Feb. 1)
Playoff chances: >99%. Boston should be offended their odds aren’t an even 100%. The Bruins are a postseason lock, and then some.
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 72.34%
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Jan. 27), vs. BOS (Jan. 29), vs. LA (Jan. 31), @ BUF (Feb. 1)
Playoff chances: >99%. Carolina would have to face the mother of all rough patches to not make a fifth consecutive postseason appearance. And that’s saying a lot, considering the Hurricanes have weathered their share of adversity and keep coming out on top.
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 68.75%
Next seven days: @ DAL (Jan. 27)
Playoff chances: 95%. New Jersey is tracking toward just its second playoff appearance in 10 years. An imminent fall off the rails is wildly unlikely, and the Devils project to be one of the must-watch clubs in what will be a talent-packed Eastern Conference field.
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 69.39%
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Jan. 27), vs. WSH (Jan. 29), vs. BOS (Feb. 1)
Playoff chances: >99%. Toronto reaching 18-wheeler-off-a-cliff territory is all that could negate earning a playoff spot. How far the Leafs end up going in the postseason is a whole other calculation, of course.
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 67.02%
Next seven days: vs. LA (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: >99%. Tampa Bay is a sure thing — at least to reach another postseason. The Lightning’s biggest potential for derailment (aside from compounding injuries) might be fatigue. Headlining the Stanley Cup Final three seasons in a row takes its toll. Is there load management in the future to safeguard against disappointment? Stay tuned.
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 65.00%
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Jan. 27)
Playoff chances: 97%. Dallas has lost consecutive games in regulation only once since November, and just four times total this season. The Stars will carry that promise into a surefire postseason opportunity.
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 63.00%
Next seven days: vs. PHI (Jan. 28), vs. STL (Jan. 30)
Playoff chances: 93%. Winnipeg should have no trouble staying on course to a well-deserved postseason slot. The Jets’ only potential stumbling block could be figuring out how to maximize the luxury of an (almost) healthy roster, without disrupting chemistry that’s taken them so far already.
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 64.89%
Next seven days: vs. CGY (Jan. 27), vs. CBJ (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 93%. Seattle needs its goaltending to hold up. That’s it. Because there’s little else that could hold this high-powered Kraken crew back from their inaugural playoff showing.
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 62.50%
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Jan. 27)
Playoff chances: 89%. New York is on thin ice in the ultracompetitive Metropolitan Division. Teams are breathing down their neck already, and to hold tight in the top three, GM Chris Drury can’t be shy about adding a player (or two) ahead of the trade deadline. That insurance would help prevent New York from slipping into wild-card territory.
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 62.25%
Next seven days: @ NYR (Jan. 27), @ NYI (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 82%. Vegas needs its health. Injury troubles have pushed the Golden Knights off track before, and they’ve been an issue already throughout this season. Vegas squirrelling away wins early should protect their postseason potential, though — barring a further pileup of ailments to come.
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 58.51%
Next seven days: vs. STL (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 93%. Colorado just recorded its longest win streak of the season — at six games — and looks increasingly like the reigning Stanley Cup champion we expected. And when the Avalanche are hitting their stride, there’s little doubt playoffs lay ahead.
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 60.00%
Next seven days: @ FLA (Jan. 27), @ TB (Jan. 28), @ CAR (Jan. 31)
Playoff chances: 63%. Los Angeles can pump up their playoff outlook as buyers before trade deadline. The salary cap won’t make it easy, but the Kings’ adding another left-shot defenseman, bottom-six forward or even a depth goaltender would aid in holding off Edmonton or Calgary for the Pacific Division’s third seed.
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 59.57%
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 81%. Minnesota must fear a surging Avalanche (and really, who doesn’t?) The Central was suffocating enough, and now that Colorado is climbing, the Wild have to keep pace or risk duking it out for a wild-card berth into the postseason.
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 59.18%
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 86%. Edmonton has racked up wins lately thanks to overall improved play, from forward balance to strong special teams to dialed-in defense. The Oilers can’t rest on their laurels or revert back to bad habits like leaning too heavily on its stars. Edmonton’s postseason hopes — and success — depend on being more multi-dimensional than that.
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 59.38%
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 75%. Pittsburgh looked poised, at one point, to be a powerhouse. Currently, they barely hold a playoff spot. The Penguins can improve their odds by adding forward depth ahead of the deadline, and hoping certain defensive stalwarts — including Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin — can keep flourishing.
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 56.12%
Next seven days: @ SEA (Jan. 27)
Playoff chances: 56%. Calgary must find its identity. It’s not all the way locked in yet. To make the postseason, Calgary has to execute like a playoff-caliber team. But putting on a full 60-minute effort might be the easy part. The Flames’ challenge is to keep coming together, decide what they really are and lean into it.
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 56.86%
Next seven days: @ TOR (Jan. 29), @ CBJ (Jan. 31)
Playoff chances: 59%. Washington is in that middle-of-the-pack position that makes a pre-trade-deadline move imperative. The Capitals need to target blue-line help. John Carlson is hurt now, and if there’s an opportunity to bolster the back end sooner than later, Washington could boost its postseason positioning that much faster.
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 57.29%
Next seven days: @ MIN (Jan. 28), vs. CAR (Feb. 1)
Playoff chances: 35%. Buffalo is at a crossroads: Are they a young team standing pat until next season, or is a playoff push now in their sights? Because the opportunity to swing big is there. The Sabres’ best chance of a springtime berth involves adding defensive depth, possibly targeting an impactful bottom-six forward, continued excellence from its top-six group and consistent goaltending. Buffalo has surprised all season; what else is up its sleeve?
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 56.25%
Next seven days: No games
Playoff chances: 43%. Nashville longs for consistency. Juuse Saros is playing well in net (.920 save percentage) and the Predators have improved offensively since Christmas into a top-15 goal-scoring team. To extend its second-half potential into a postseason shot, Nashville has to get consistent scoring every game.
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 52.00%
Next seven days: vs. LA (Jan. 27), vs. BOS (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 30%. Florida needed better goaltending to turn its season around. Now, the Panthers just need healthy goaltenders. Sergei Bobrovsky was sidelined last week with a lower-body issue and Spencer Knight is just back from injury himself. Alex Lyon has been there to help, but Florida has simply got to give its goalie — whoever that is — all the support it can up front to have a shot at playoffs.
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 53.19%
Next seven days: @ NYI (Jan. 27)
Playoff chances: 4%. Detroit showed some serious early-season promise, and they’re still an above-.500 team. If the Red Wings can start scoring again, and if Ville Husso can get some help, and if Detroit can tighten up defensively … maybe they find a way back to what worked before. If not, the Red Wings could be looking for a golden draft lottery ticket.
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 51.00%
Next seven days: vs. DET (Jan. 27), vs. VGK (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 13%. New York has been in an offensive drought since mid-December. If that doesn’t change fast, and the Islanders still hold postseason aspirations, then GM Lou Lamoriello must target forward help on the trade market. And then hope that kick-starts better performances from within.
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50.00%
Next seven days: @ COL (Jan. 28), @ WPG (Jan. 30)
Playoff chances: 12%. St. Louis’ best chance of a postseason push is keeping all of its best players — including an eventually healthy Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly — in the fold. And potentially being buyers instead of sellers ahead of the trade deadline. And then going on a magical win-almost-every-night kind of run. So yeah, it would be a lot.
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 49.00%
Next seven days: @ WPG (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: 1%. Philadelphia not being the worst team in their division is a (relative) achievement. There’s always next year to — maybe — get back in the playoff mix.
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 47.87%
Next seven days: @ TOR (Jan. 27), vs. MTL (Jan. 28), @ MTL (Jan. 31)
Playoff chances: 1%. Ottawa rallied to overcome a slow start with its 12-5-2 run through late fall. Since then, the Senators have simply fallen. Would getting — and staying — fully healthy have kept Ottawa’s previous momentum and playoff hopes alive? A question that will linger into the planning for next season.
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 38.78%
Next seven days: @ CAR (Jan. 27), @ PIT (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: less than 1%. San Jose won’t be appearing in the postseason. But the Sharks could emerge as big winners at the trade deadline by moving marquee players like Timo Meier and Erik Karlsson in deals that set San Jose up for long-term success in the future. A fine consolation prize.
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 44.90%
Next seven days: @ OTT (Jan. 28), vs. OTT (Jan. 31)
Playoff chances: less than 1%. Montreal losing Cole Caufield for the rest of the season was the end of any lingering postseason dreams. No matter. The Canadiens have a young core and plenty of potential playoff opportunities in their future.
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 42.71%
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Jan. 27)
Playoff chances: less than 1%. Vancouver responded surprisingly well to a coaching change last season. Can they do it again? Last season, the Canucks went from last in the Pacific to missing the playoffs by two points after Bruce Boudreau slid behind the bench. Rick Tocchet would be some sort of magician to coax an even better run out of Vancouver now … but hey, anything is possible.
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 37.76%
Next seven days: @ ANA (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: less than 1%. Arizona won’t parlay great performances from the likes of Karel Vejmelka and Clayton Keller into playoff games right now. But there are still a couple more years of possibility that Mullet Arena will host an NHL playoff tilt. And that’s fun to think about!
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 36.17%
Next seven days: @ EDM (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: less than 1%. Chicago is “Bound for Bedard” — as was their plan. The Blackhawks can help the cause by finding trade partners for Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, and really embracing the franchise’s future direction.
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 35.71%
Next seven days: vs. ARI (Jan. 28)
Playoff chances: less than 1%. Anaheim can see the big picture here. Playoffs are out, clearly. But the Ducks have cap space to spare, a trade deadline looming to start the healing — er, improving — process and great odds in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. And those are the odds that really matter for Anaheim.
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 34.38%
Next seven days: @ VAN (Jan. 27), @ SEA (Jan. 28), vs. WSH (Jan. 31)
Playoff chances: less than 1%. Columbus has yet to win consecutive games in regulation this season, so the playoffs will remain something of a pipe dream.
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The Carolina Hurricanes shocked the New York Islanders on Monday night, scoring the game-tying and winning goals just nine seconds apart in the third period, giving them a 2-0 lead in their Eastern Conference Round 1 series.
“This one’s long from over, but right now, this one hurts the gut,” Islanders captain Anders Lee said after the 5-3 loss in Raleigh, North Carolina.
With his team’s net empty, Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho deflected an Andrei Svechnikov pass to tie the game with 2:15 left in the third period, erasing a 3-0 lead the Islanders had built in the first 23:54 of the game.
“When you’re down three, it’s a once in a lifetime-type of game,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said. “I’m just proud of the way they kept playing.”
Jordan Martinook gave Carolina the lead just nine seconds later, stealing the puck from defenseman Noah Dobson on the forecheck and tucking it behind Islanders goalie Semyon Varlamov, who was looking in the opposite direction in anticipation of Dobson having moved the puck.
“The momentum of us tying the game and the energy that it sends … I don’t really know how to describe it,” Martinook said. “You have this juice that hits you.”
The Hurricanes set a new NHL record for the fastest game-tying and winning goals scored in the third period of a playoff game. It was the seventh time in NHL history that a team had tied and won the game in the final three minutes of a playoff game. Carolina was already on that list, having tied and beaten the New Jersey Devils in a conference quarterfinal game in 2009.
Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis had the goals before Aho’s, while Jake Guentzel added an empty netter to seal the win.
“We had a good start. We took a 3-0 lead,” Islanders coach Patrick Roy said. “For some reason, we started losing those 1-on-1 battles. That was the biggest difference from the first half of the game to the second half.”
Carolina dominated possession against the Islanders, with a 110-to-28 advantage in shot attempts. That was never more evident than in the third period, when the Islanders were outshot 17-1.
“We have to be better there. We can’t just get a lead and try to hold on,” Dobson said. “They’re too good of a team for that. This stings right now. We’ve got to learn from it.”
Game 3 of the series is Thursday night at UBS Arena on Long Island.
“It’s a tough loss, no doubt about it. We had a chance to win that game,” Roy said. “But we’ve got to regroup, play well in our building and win game number three.”
The Hurricanes might be short-handed when the series shifts to New York. After the win, Brind’Amour addressed the lower-body injury that defenseman Brett Pesce suffered in the second period, saying it’s “not looking good,” and that the veteran was scheduled for further evaluation Tuesday.
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
BOSTON — On the heels of a 3-2 loss, coach Jim Montgomery stood behind his choice to start Linus Ullmark over Jeremy Swayman in Game 2 of the Boston Bruins‘ first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday night.
Ullmark, who finished with 30 stops, got the call in net even after Swayman was dominant making 35 saves for Boston in a 5-1 victory over the Leafs in Saturday’s Game 1.
“No second guesses,” Montgomery said. “He was terrific. Made multiple big-time saves.”
Montgomery had flat-out refused to name a starter leading up to Monday’s game while being peppered with questions about whether he’d keep the Bruins’ established rotation alive. Boston had strictly alternated between Swayman and Ullmark since February; Monday was the 28th straight game they’d employed the same tactic.
It just wasn’t something Montgomery was willing to comment on publicly, and the guessing game continued right until warmups of Game 2.
“I don’t know why we would divulge information,” Montgomery said earlier Monday. “If you’re preparing for a game, there are parts of a goaltender that are part of your pre-scout. So that’s an advantage for us, right? If [they] don’t know who’s starting.”
In the end, it was hard for Montgomery to go wrong. Ullmark is the NHL’s reigning Vezina Trophy winner, and both he and Swayman had strong stats in the regular season. Swayman was 25-10-8 with a .916 SV% and 2.53 GAA, while Ullmark was 22-10-7 with 2.57 GAA.
Swayman had been an obvious choice to tap in Game 1 given his 3-0-0 record against Toronto in the regular season. Ullmark was equally excellent in Game 2 and gave Boston every chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead over Toronto in the series.
The Bruins were in control early, taking a 2-1 over the Leafs after the first period with goals from Morgan Geekie and David Pastrnak. Boston would go down a defenseman in the second when Andrew Peeke exited, leaving the Bruins with a five-man rotation on the back end. Montgomery had no update on Peeke following the loss.
Toronto then tied the game with a power play goal from John Tavares in the middle frame to make it 2-2 heading into the third. The Leafs turned up the pressure there while Boston looked increasingly flat-footed, and Ullmark had to execute two exceptional glove saves — one in particular against Nick Robertson — to keep the score knotted.
It took Auston Matthews, the NHL’s Rocket Richard Trophy winner with 69 goals in the regular season, slipping behind Bruins’ defenseman Charlie McAvoy to finally beat Ullmark with a breakaway strike to give the Leafs a 3-2 advantage late in the third. It was the first time Toronto had led Boston in their past five meetings.
“There’s a reason he scored 69,” Ullmark said of Matthews’ winner. “[I’ll] try to get him next time.”
When that next opportunity comes for Ullmark, only Montgomery knows for sure. The series turns now to Toronto with Game 3 set for Wednesday. Montgomery’s focus isn’t immediately on who will be in the crease, but on improving how the Bruins play in front of whoever earns the next start.
“We’re not playing fast enough,” Montgomery said. “We’re slow in transition, which is not allowing us to possess pucks and not allowing us to get in on the forecheck well enough. I didn’t think our urgency was where it needed to be to prevail tonight.”
Maple Leafs forward William Nylander missed Game 2 with an undisclosed injury and has yet to appear in the series. While Toronto hasn’t revealed what Nylander is dealing with, it’s reported to have flared up for the winger sometime after the regular-season finale last Wednesday.
With the series tied 1-1, Game 3 is Wednesday in Toronto.
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