MLB Power Rankings: Who’s No. 1 on our midwinter list?
We’re about halfway through winter and the top free agents have signed, meaning it’s time to look ahead toward the start of the 2023 season.
Where does every team stand heading into spring training? Despite not being at the center of this year’s free agency, are the reigning World Series champions atop our rankings? Did the Mets’ and Padres’ offseason acquisitions help push them to the No. 1 spot? And where do Aaron Judge and the Yankees sit?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of last year’s performances and what we’ve seen this offseason. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and Buster Olney to weigh in with the biggest question for all 30 teams.
Ranking all 30 teams following free agency frenzy
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 2
The Astros remain a solid member of baseball’s upper crust, but after a winter in which a number of recognizable and aging players departed only to be replaced by a small group of free agents who are just as old, you wonder if this offseason will come back to haunt the champs. The pitching depth, even with the loss of Justin Verlander, is tremendous. And the cornerstones of the lineup are elite. But you wonder if a James Click front office would have been engaged in a much different approach in rechanneling the payroll space opened up by the exits of Verlander, Yuli Gurriel and others. The initial forecasts see a slight step back for the Astros, though they remain in the thick of the World Series race. The forecasts might well be wrong but the thing is, it’s been a while since there have been these kinds of questions about the Astros. — Doolittle
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 4
While the Mets spent the offseason flashing their wallet, the Braves aim for a sixth straight National League East title. The biggest move was acquiring catcher Sean Murphy from the A’s and, as the Braves do better than any other club, immediately signing him to a six-year extension to give them a long-term answer behind the plate. He’s a strong two-way performer and a big defensive upgrade over Travis d’Arnaud (who is still with the team) and William Contreras (who went to the Brewers in the three-way trade for Murphy). They lost Dansby Swanson in free agency but appear confident that Orlando Arcia and/or Vaughn Grissom can replace him at shortstop. — Schoenfield
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 5
They won baseball’s best division — the American League East — with relative ease, re-signed reigning AL MVP Judge to a huge contract and landed one of the best free agent starting pitchers in Carlos Rodon — and yet the Yankees were one of the most scrutinized teams in the offseason. Welcome to life in the big city.
It is unusual that a team with an enormous payroll faces a major question in a key spot, but as spring training nears, it’s unclear who will be the Yankees’ shortstop in 2023. Maybe it’ll be Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who faded defensively and was benched in the midst of the postseason. However, the Yankees would love for one of their top prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to win the job in camp or early in the regular season. — Olney
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 3
It’s been a whirlwind offseason for the Mets, from signing Verlander to not signing Jacob deGrom to signing and not signing Carlos Correa. Even without Correa, repeating last year’s 101 wins is in play — especially if Verlander can give them 30 starts compared to the 11 deGrom gave. They should get more offense from catcher with the additions of Omar Narvaez and rookie Francisco Alvarez and the bullpen added Brooks Raley and David Robertson on top of re-signing Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino. The Mets will own the highest payroll in history and will rely heavily on the 40-year Verlander and 38-year-old Max Scherzer, but it’s World Series or bust for the 2023 Mets. — Schoenfield
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 10
Shortstop was the last position the Padres needed to address this winter and yet it’s the one they splurged on, committing $280 million to Xander Bogaerts. Top to bottom, the Padres might be the most talented team in the sport. But how is it all going to work?
Fernando Tatis Jr., coming off a lost 2022 that began with a wrist injury and ended with a PED-related suspension, will suddenly have to adjust to the outfield on a full-time basis. Ha-seong Kim, a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop last season, will probably move to second base, with Jake Cronenworth shifting over to first. These are not insignificant transitions — but they are also first-class problems. After Tatis serves the remaining 20 games of his suspension, he’ll join a top half of the lineup that will also boast Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Juan Soto. It’s crazy just to type that. — Gonzalez
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 1
The Dodgers’ lineup has been deep, decorated and flat-out overwhelming in recent years. But now — on paper, at least — it feels relatively lacking, with Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger gone and not necessarily replaced. The Dodgers essentially swapped Justin Turner for J.D. Martinez, the latter of whom will absorb most of the playing time at designated hitter. But it looks like they will fill most of their remaining holes internally.
Center field and left field are a major question, and three of the infield spots — second base, third base and shortstop — will be filled by the foursome of Gavin Lux, Max Muncy, Miguel Vargas and the recently added Miguel Rojas. Will infield defense be a problem, particularly in a year with shift restrictions? And will their promising crop of young players be good enough to make up for major losses? — Gonzalez
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 7
The Rangers augmented their rotation this winter, the Mets revamped their bullpen and the Cubs improved their defense. But the Blue Jays may have made the most meaningful unit change with the way they added balance to a lineup that has been stacked with right-handed hitters in recent years.
Toronto added three experienced left-handed hitters — trading for outfielder Daulton Varsho, who likely will hit in the middle of the batting order, and signing Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. No team faced more unfavorable platoon matchups than the Blue Jays last year, as opposing managers stacked up right-handed pitching against Toronto’s lineup, making life more difficult for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, et al. The new lefties should help the Blue Jays’ offense significantly, particularly if Belt and Kiermaier can stay healthy. — Olney
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 11
As good as the Phillies looked in October, they were a team that finished 14 games behind the Braves and Mets and barely made the playoffs by one win over the Brewers. Now, they will be without Bryce Harper for several months as he recovers from elbow surgery. Signing superstar shortstop Turner will help bridge that gap and they’re gambling on veteran closer Craig Kimbrel and hard-throwing but wild lefty Gregory Soto to bring more bullpen depth. The key: The Phillies went 13-25 against the Braves and Mets last year. The new balanced schedule means they will play just 26 games against those two clubs instead of 38, but they will need to beat their rivals to improve on last year’s 87-75 record. — Schoenfield
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 9
The Rays have one of the smallest margins for error in MLB, given their low payroll, so they will need their highest-paid players to perform. This is why they will need a big rebound from Wander Franco, in whom they made the most significant investment in franchise history. Franco played in just 83 games last year because of injuries, posting an OBP of .328 and scoring just 46 runs. This winter, Franco has been working on his flexibility, on getting leaner.
“He looks great,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said recently. “If we can keep him healthy, I’m confident that we will see the player we all know he can be. He seems very motivated and excited to get going.” — Olney
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 12
Mariners fans are frustrated with an offseason that has seen them make trades for right fielder Teoscar Hernandez and second baseman Kolten Wong and sign AJ Pollock as a platoon/bat depth piece for the outfield and DH, but lacking in a big, splashy move. The payroll does project to be a franchise record but only slightly higher than it was in the 2016 to 2018 era. It will also be interesting to see how the defense plays out: Shortstop J.P. Crawford and Wong are former Gold Glove winners but both had poor defensive metrics in 2022 and Hernandez, while athletic, is a below-average outfielder. On the bright side: We get to see Year 2 of Julio Rodriguez as the Mariners go for a second straight playoff appearance. — Schoenfield
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 6
The Cardinals gained significantly more offense behind the plate — though they might have sacrificed nearly as much defense — by replacing the retired Yadier Molina with free agent catcher Willson Contreras. With Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado anchoring the middle of the lineup, the Cardinals’ offense looks solid heading into 2023. But it’s their starting pitching that might determine whether they win a relatively weak NL Central for a second consecutive year. Adam Wainwright is 41, Jack Flaherty is now four years removed from his time as an ace and the fifth spot in the rotation is a question. The Cardinals could stand to add another starter — and they might be able to use their outfield depth to access one via trade. — Gonzalez
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 8
There isn’t a whole lot to be wringing your hands about when it comes to the Guardians. Yeah, maybe they could have been a little more aggressive when it comes to filling out the handful of needs their young but already accomplished roster needed. They needed a first base/DH bat and Josh Bell fits the bill, but could they have made a bigger splash with a bigger investment? And at catcher, the Guardians were linked to the Murphy sweepstakes and ended up with Mike Zunino. Still, Cleveland has emerged as a clear-cut favorite to repeat in its division, and given that a roster so young should get better simply because that’s what good young players tend to do, you’d have to dig deep to be worried about the Guardians. — Doolittle
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 13
Maybe Seattle simply wasn’t a good fit for Jesse Winker. Maybe going from one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly ballparks to one of the least played a factor. Whatever the reason, Winker struggled mightily offensively last season. He produced an .888 OPS through a 413-game sample while with the Reds from 2017 to 2021 — punctuated by a .949 mark in the final year — but contributed only a .688 OPS in his first and only year with the Mariners in 2022. That’s a 200-point drop-off. Now the Brewers are hoping they can recapture his greatness. They parted with second baseman Wong in early December in order to buy low on Winker. And if Winker, 29, can get back on track, the Brewers might challenge for a division title. — Gonzalez
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 18
Can the Twins get on the right side of Eir? Allow us to explain: Among other things, Eir is the Norse goddess of healing. Minnesota has a lot of folks with Scandinavian ancestry, though we are awaiting the research on how many current day Minnesotans are active followers of Eir.
Anyway, the Twins have a number of impact performers who could help put the ballclub over the top in 2023 if only they can hit the outer range of their playing time forecasts. In other words, if Eir looks kindly upon this version of the Twins, it’s a roster with a lot of possibility. This dynamic has marked the Twins in recent years and figures to be an ongoing organizational trait after the cyclonic offseason tete-a-tete with Correa. But it goes well beyond Correa, or even scintillating but fragile centerfielder Byron Buxton. It extends to Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddack, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. The talent is exciting. Eir, are you paying attention? — Doolittle
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 16
Is there enough positive regression on the roster to merit optimism that Chicago can rebound from a disappointing 2022? We only ask because the White Sox’s offseason mostly looks like treadmill exercise. They added some players and lost others and from a forecast standpoint, it kind of all washes out and leaves the White Sox where they started, with what looks like a .500-ish baseline. Most of the same issues with last year’s roster remain even if some of the names have changed, not the least of which is the manager, now Pedro Grifol.
The biggest hope for a rebound is for those who underachieved in 2021 to snap back to their previous trajectory, perhaps with the new coaching staff guiding the way. The list of possible bounce-backs is long: Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, among others. It can happen, but when a team takes a step back during a stretch of seasons in which it is supposed to be contending, a talent infusion isn’t the worst idea. — Doolittle
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 20
Despite a potential change in ownership, the Angels have acted aggressively this offseason, spending a combined $90 million or so on six new players (two of whom were acquired via trade). They weren’t necessarily huge additions, but they helped the front office make major strides toward its primary goal of deepening the depth of the 40-man roster. Injuries have debilitated the Angels in recent years, more so than most teams. Their roster was too top-heavy — but that is no longer the case.
Now the question is whether what’s been done is enough, and whether they will finally field a team capable of getting Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani into the playoffs. The Angels are betting that those two, along with a healthy Anthony Rendon, an underrated starting rotation and a deeper position-player group will at least keep them relevant in September. — Gonzalez
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 21
Will the system produce? Can the revamped front office build depth and a contention-worthy bullpen? Two expensive offseasons have the Rangers in the range of playoff contention, though they don’t look like an elite squad just yet. But with the improvements in their rotation and last year’s splurge for Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, among others, it is hard to envision Texas spending its way from an 83- to 85-win baseline to upper-level contention. Getting there will come down to finding players to contribute from roster spots 12 through 40, players who typically come from internal development, scouting and canny acquisitions. That assumes, of course, that the free agents prove worthy of the Rangers’ investment. Even if they do, there is plenty of work left to be done. — Doolittle
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 14
Shortly after the Orioles unloaded money at the trade deadline, rather than add to a team that was in the playoff hunt, the club’s leadership suggested there would be a significant upgrade of the payroll in 2023. But Baltimore effectively bypassed the free agent market — its only signings were veterans on one-year deals, most notably pitcher Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. So if the Orioles are to improve upon their 83-win performance and make the playoffs this season, it will be because of the continued growth of their best young players. Adley Rutschman is already in the conversation for being the best catcher in baseball, and Gunnar Henderson is probably the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. — Olney
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 17
The Red Sox have reached a crossroads season that might lead them in one of two distinct directions. If they exceed expectations — let’s say they make the playoffs — then this will buy time for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to improve the roster and organization. But if the team struggles — Boston looks like the fourth- or fifth-best team in the division on paper — the calls from the Red Sox fan base for significant change will grow louder and angrier. The front office bet heavily in the offseason that an improved bullpen will make a significant difference in 2023, with Kenley Jansen taking over as closer. The Red Sox ranked 27th in bullpen WAR last season, with Boston relievers posting a 4.59 ERA. — Olney
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 19
They’re in a tough division, of course, but Arizona’s future nonetheless seems promising, with several talented young players — Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno on the position-player side, along with Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson on the pitching side — who will be ready to contribute in 2023. The D-backs acquired some veteran pieces this offseason, adding Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Kyle Lewis and Evan Longoria to a lineup that should be better. But their big question — When can they legitimately contend? — will be answered by the development of the aforementioned young players. — Gonzalez
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 22
The Cubs are sort of, kind of, half-heartedly making a push for bigger things in 2023. They signed Swanson for $177 million, hoping he can come close to replicating his career season he had with the Braves. Another 5.7-WAR season is optimistic, but Swanson and Nico Hoerner will at least give the Cubs elite middle infield defense and solid offense.
The additions of Bellinger, Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini are less inspiring. Bellinger provides good defense, but he hasn’t hit the past two seasons, including .210/.265/.389 in 2022 with a strikeout rate 11% higher than his 2019 MVP season. Jameson Taillon is the big add to the pitching staff and with Justin Steele‘s breakout and Hayden Wesneski‘s late-season performance, there is a scenario where the rotation pitches the Cubs into the postseason in a weak division. — Schoenfield
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 15
The prevailing question surrounding the Giants seems obvious: Where, exactly, are they headed? They began this offseason in pursuit of a star, the type of player they can build their franchise around. But they missed out on Judge, couldn’t agree with Correa and instead made moves along the margins once again, adding a couple of outfielders (Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto) and a trio of pitchers (Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and lefty reliever Taylor Rogers). The Giants don’t seem anywhere near the Padres or the Dodgers at the moment, but they also have a mid-tier farm system. Just two years removed from a shocking 107-win season, they suddenly look like a team without clear direction. — Gonzalez
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 23
Don Mattingly is gone after seven seasons and one playoff appearance in the shortened 2020 season, with Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker hired as the new manager. Indeed, the Marlins haven’t finished over .500 in a full season since 2009 or made the playoffs since 2003. But, hey, their 93 losses were the fewest in a full season since 2017. So … progress? Adding veterans Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto hardly moves the needle, but there is hope for a dominant rotation with full seasons from Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera and a bounce-back from Trevor Rogers alongside Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Fellow starter Pablo Lopez appears to be on the trade block for an outfield bat. — Schoenfield
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 28
Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana would be a great pair for the middle of the lineup — in 2013. A decade later, former NL MVP McCutchen returns to Pittsburgh at age 36 while 37-year-old Santana gives the club a 1B/DH option along with Ji-Man Choi. Oh, they also signed Rich Hill, who turns 43 in March. Sentiment notwithstanding, does any of this excite you? I guess it’s something. Perhaps some “how to do things the right way” insight from the wise veterans will rub off on some of the younger players, and it’s worth noting that McCutchen, Santana and Choi are all disciplined hitters. Pay attention, Oneil Cruz. — Schoenfield
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 25
What exactly is the plan for the rotation? The Royals signed a pair of veterans in free agency this year. One, righty Jordan Lyles, has a composite ERA+ of 89 over the past five seasons. The other, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, is at 94. For those not familiar, ERA+ is an indexed, park-adjusted version of ERA housed at baseball-reference.com in which 100 represents league average. League average, in theory, translates to 81-81 if all of your players are at that level. If they are below that level, then you aren’t really winning games, or at least not enough to contend or earn the interest of your fan base.
Both of the new pitchers are over 30 and their performances are well-established. They can eat innings but what really would be the point if the innings consist of a large quantity of below-average production? — Doolittle
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 24
The Rockies play half their games in the sport’s most favorable hitting environment and yet their team OPS has been exactly league average — .721 — since the start of the 2020 season. Kris Bryant, signed to a seven-year, $182 million contract last March that surprised a lot of people, was brought in to help fix that. He contributed an .851 OPS in his first season, but a troublesome back and a bout with plantar fasciitis limited him to 42 games. He’s 31 now, and the question is whether Bryant can stay healthy enough to play like a perennial All-Star in Colorado. This franchise can’t really move forward if Bryant doesn’t perform to the level of his contract. — Gonzalez
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 27
The Tigers finally decided to change the dimensions of Comerica Park, pulling in the fence in center field and lowering the height of the barrier in places. In doing so, they finally succumbed to years and years of whining from various power hitters who have come through Detroit over the years. This move has been a long time coming, so it’s not a knee-jerk reaction to the 2023 season — the considerations to make the changes are about the long run. But since we’re looking at next season, you wonder if the short-term effects could be ugly or, at the very least, work against the home team. The combination of factors behind this concern: Detroit’s starting staff is light on strikeouts and potentially heavy on long flies and is paired with a lineup that isn’t likely to rank high in homers, no matter where they play. — Doolittle
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 29
Since the start of last season, the A’s have unloaded Frankie Montas, Elvis Andrus and Murphy, completing the mass roster — and now, it’s unclear when the franchise will be competitively relevant again. Their big move this offseason was the signing of utility men Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson to two-year contracts. The highest-paid player on the Oakland roster is reliever Trevor May, who will make $7 million in 2023 — or about what Verlander and Scherzer will each make in April. The AL West figures to be one of baseball’s most competitive divisions, with the Rangers and Angels earnestly working to upgrade their rosters enough to challenge the Astros and Mariners. All of those teams will feast on the Athletics in 2023. — Olney
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 30
Were the Nationals terrible in 2022? Yes. Will they be bad in 2023? Almost certainly. The Nationals added some depth pieces in Dominic Smith, Jeimer Candelario and Corey Dickerson, guys who have produced in the past but not in 2022. The season, however, is about the development of the young players they hope turn into a core to build around: CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia, Cade Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray. — Schoenfield
Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 26
How different will the Reds look from Opening Day to the end of the season? This very much looks like another transitional season for the Reds, who carry one of the worst 2023 forecasts as we head toward the backstretch of the hot stove part of the calendar. But that’s not to say that the looming season won’t provide things to look forward to for the Cincinnati faithful.
There is a young 1-2-3 rotation of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. There is a plethora of exciting middle infielders, from Jose Barrero to Elly De La Cruz and others. The Reds aren’t likely to be good this season but they might well have some key components of the next Cincinnati team that will be good. How many of those players will be in place by the end of the coming season? — Doolittle
MONTREAL — Alex Ovechkin padded his NHL goals record and moved up a couple other big lists in the Washington Capitals‘ 8-4 romp over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night.
Ovechkin had his 33rd career hat trick to tie Brett Hull for fourth in NHL history and added an assist as he moved past Joe Sakic into 10th on the points list.
Ovechkin has 10 goals in 21 games this season to push his NHL-record to 907. The 40-year-old Russian has 1,643 points, two more than Sakic.
“I just try to do my job and try to enjoy the moment and enjoy the time,” Ovechkin said.
Ovechkin opened the scoring on a power play a minute into the first period, firing a wrist shot past goalie Sam Montembeault off a faceoff. Ovechkin assisted on Ethen Frank‘s goal two minutes into the second that gave the Capitals the lead for good at 2-1.
The Washington star scored twice late in the third period, the first on a rush with 4:57 to go and the second into an empty net from his own zone with 2:04 remaining. He has scored in four straight games and has seven goals in his last six games.
“After everything he’s done we’re still amazed at what he can do, and I’m sure he’s not close to slowing down,” Frank said of Ovechkin.
Ovechkin is the second player in NHL history with six goals in a four-game span at age 40 or older, according to ESPN Research.
Coming off a 7-4 home victory over Edmonton on Wednesday night, Washington has won three in a row to improve to 11-8-2. It was the Capitals’ lone road game in an eight-game span.
Montreal has lost five straight and seven of eight.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
It’s time for Texas to pack up.
The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
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