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3 years ago

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Jan 19, 2023

We’re about halfway through winter and the top free agents have signed, meaning it’s time to look ahead toward the start of the 2023 season.

Where does every team stand heading into spring training? Despite not being at the center of this year’s free agency, are the reigning World Series champions atop our rankings? Did the Mets’ and Padres’ offseason acquisitions help push them to the No. 1 spot? And where do Aaron Judge and the Yankees sit?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of last year’s performances and what we’ve seen this offseason. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and Buster Olney to weigh in with the biggest question for all 30 teams.

Ranking all 30 teams following free agency frenzy

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 2

The Astros remain a solid member of baseball’s upper crust, but after a winter in which a number of recognizable and aging players departed only to be replaced by a small group of free agents who are just as old, you wonder if this offseason will come back to haunt the champs. The pitching depth, even with the loss of Justin Verlander, is tremendous. And the cornerstones of the lineup are elite. But you wonder if a James Click front office would have been engaged in a much different approach in rechanneling the payroll space opened up by the exits of Verlander, Yuli Gurriel and others. The initial forecasts see a slight step back for the Astros, though they remain in the thick of the World Series race. The forecasts might well be wrong but the thing is, it’s been a while since there have been these kinds of questions about the Astros. — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 4

While the Mets spent the offseason flashing their wallet, the Braves aim for a sixth straight National League East title. The biggest move was acquiring catcher Sean Murphy from the A’s and, as the Braves do better than any other club, immediately signing him to a six-year extension to give them a long-term answer behind the plate. He’s a strong two-way performer and a big defensive upgrade over Travis d’Arnaud (who is still with the team) and William Contreras (who went to the Brewers in the three-way trade for Murphy). They lost Dansby Swanson in free agency but appear confident that Orlando Arcia and/or Vaughn Grissom can replace him at shortstop. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 5

They won baseball’s best division — the American League East — with relative ease, re-signed reigning AL MVP Judge to a huge contract and landed one of the best free agent starting pitchers in Carlos Rodon — and yet the Yankees were one of the most scrutinized teams in the offseason. Welcome to life in the big city.

It is unusual that a team with an enormous payroll faces a major question in a key spot, but as spring training nears, it’s unclear who will be the Yankees’ shortstop in 2023. Maybe it’ll be Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who faded defensively and was benched in the midst of the postseason. However, the Yankees would love for one of their top prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to win the job in camp or early in the regular season. — Olney

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 3

It’s been a whirlwind offseason for the Mets, from signing Verlander to not signing Jacob deGrom to signing and not signing Carlos Correa. Even without Correa, repeating last year’s 101 wins is in play — especially if Verlander can give them 30 starts compared to the 11 deGrom gave. They should get more offense from catcher with the additions of Omar Narvaez and rookie Francisco Alvarez and the bullpen added Brooks Raley and David Robertson on top of re-signing Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino. The Mets will own the highest payroll in history and will rely heavily on the 40-year Verlander and 38-year-old Max Scherzer, but it’s World Series or bust for the 2023 Mets. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 10

Shortstop was the last position the Padres needed to address this winter and yet it’s the one they splurged on, committing $280 million to Xander Bogaerts. Top to bottom, the Padres might be the most talented team in the sport. But how is it all going to work?

Fernando Tatis Jr., coming off a lost 2022 that began with a wrist injury and ended with a PED-related suspension, will suddenly have to adjust to the outfield on a full-time basis. Ha-seong Kim, a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop last season, will probably move to second base, with Jake Cronenworth shifting over to first. These are not insignificant transitions — but they are also first-class problems. After Tatis serves the remaining 20 games of his suspension, he’ll join a top half of the lineup that will also boast Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Juan Soto. It’s crazy just to type that. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 1

The Dodgers’ lineup has been deep, decorated and flat-out overwhelming in recent years. But now — on paper, at least — it feels relatively lacking, with Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger gone and not necessarily replaced. The Dodgers essentially swapped Justin Turner for J.D. Martinez, the latter of whom will absorb most of the playing time at designated hitter. But it looks like they will fill most of their remaining holes internally.

Center field and left field are a major question, and three of the infield spots — second base, third base and shortstop — will be filled by the foursome of Gavin Lux, Max Muncy, Miguel Vargas and the recently added Miguel Rojas. Will infield defense be a problem, particularly in a year with shift restrictions? And will their promising crop of young players be good enough to make up for major losses? — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 7

The Rangers augmented their rotation this winter, the Mets revamped their bullpen and the Cubs improved their defense. But the Blue Jays may have made the most meaningful unit change with the way they added balance to a lineup that has been stacked with right-handed hitters in recent years.

Toronto added three experienced left-handed hitters — trading for outfielder Daulton Varsho, who likely will hit in the middle of the batting order, and signing Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. No team faced more unfavorable platoon matchups than the Blue Jays last year, as opposing managers stacked up right-handed pitching against Toronto’s lineup, making life more difficult for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, et al. The new lefties should help the Blue Jays’ offense significantly, particularly if Belt and Kiermaier can stay healthy. — Olney

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 11

As good as the Phillies looked in October, they were a team that finished 14 games behind the Braves and Mets and barely made the playoffs by one win over the Brewers. Now, they will be without Bryce Harper for several months as he recovers from elbow surgery. Signing superstar shortstop Turner will help bridge that gap and they’re gambling on veteran closer Craig Kimbrel and hard-throwing but wild lefty Gregory Soto to bring more bullpen depth. The key: The Phillies went 13-25 against the Braves and Mets last year. The new balanced schedule means they will play just 26 games against those two clubs instead of 38, but they will need to beat their rivals to improve on last year’s 87-75 record. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 9

The Rays have one of the smallest margins for error in MLB, given their low payroll, so they will need their highest-paid players to perform. This is why they will need a big rebound from Wander Franco, in whom they made the most significant investment in franchise history. Franco played in just 83 games last year because of injuries, posting an OBP of .328 and scoring just 46 runs. This winter, Franco has been working on his flexibility, on getting leaner.

“He looks great,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said recently. “If we can keep him healthy, I’m confident that we will see the player we all know he can be. He seems very motivated and excited to get going.” — Olney

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 12

Mariners fans are frustrated with an offseason that has seen them make trades for right fielder Teoscar Hernandez and second baseman Kolten Wong and sign AJ Pollock as a platoon/bat depth piece for the outfield and DH, but lacking in a big, splashy move. The payroll does project to be a franchise record but only slightly higher than it was in the 2016 to 2018 era. It will also be interesting to see how the defense plays out: Shortstop J.P. Crawford and Wong are former Gold Glove winners but both had poor defensive metrics in 2022 and Hernandez, while athletic, is a below-average outfielder. On the bright side: We get to see Year 2 of Julio Rodriguez as the Mariners go for a second straight playoff appearance. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 6

The Cardinals gained significantly more offense behind the plate — though they might have sacrificed nearly as much defense — by replacing the retired Yadier Molina with free agent catcher Willson Contreras. With Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado anchoring the middle of the lineup, the Cardinals’ offense looks solid heading into 2023. But it’s their starting pitching that might determine whether they win a relatively weak NL Central for a second consecutive year. Adam Wainwright is 41, Jack Flaherty is now four years removed from his time as an ace and the fifth spot in the rotation is a question. The Cardinals could stand to add another starter — and they might be able to use their outfield depth to access one via trade. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 8

There isn’t a whole lot to be wringing your hands about when it comes to the Guardians. Yeah, maybe they could have been a little more aggressive when it comes to filling out the handful of needs their young but already accomplished roster needed. They needed a first base/DH bat and Josh Bell fits the bill, but could they have made a bigger splash with a bigger investment? And at catcher, the Guardians were linked to the Murphy sweepstakes and ended up with Mike Zunino. Still, Cleveland has emerged as a clear-cut favorite to repeat in its division, and given that a roster so young should get better simply because that’s what good young players tend to do, you’d have to dig deep to be worried about the Guardians. — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 13

Maybe Seattle simply wasn’t a good fit for Jesse Winker. Maybe going from one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly ballparks to one of the least played a factor. Whatever the reason, Winker struggled mightily offensively last season. He produced an .888 OPS through a 413-game sample while with the Reds from 2017 to 2021 — punctuated by a .949 mark in the final year — but contributed only a .688 OPS in his first and only year with the Mariners in 2022. That’s a 200-point drop-off. Now the Brewers are hoping they can recapture his greatness. They parted with second baseman Wong in early December in order to buy low on Winker. And if Winker, 29, can get back on track, the Brewers might challenge for a division title. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 18

Can the Twins get on the right side of Eir? Allow us to explain: Among other things, Eir is the Norse goddess of healing. Minnesota has a lot of folks with Scandinavian ancestry, though we are awaiting the research on how many current day Minnesotans are active followers of Eir.

Anyway, the Twins have a number of impact performers who could help put the ballclub over the top in 2023 if only they can hit the outer range of their playing time forecasts. In other words, if Eir looks kindly upon this version of the Twins, it’s a roster with a lot of possibility. This dynamic has marked the Twins in recent years and figures to be an ongoing organizational trait after the cyclonic offseason tete-a-tete with Correa. But it goes well beyond Correa, or even scintillating but fragile centerfielder Byron Buxton. It extends to Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddack, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. The talent is exciting. Eir, are you paying attention? — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 16

Is there enough positive regression on the roster to merit optimism that Chicago can rebound from a disappointing 2022? We only ask because the White Sox’s offseason mostly looks like treadmill exercise. They added some players and lost others and from a forecast standpoint, it kind of all washes out and leaves the White Sox where they started, with what looks like a .500-ish baseline. Most of the same issues with last year’s roster remain even if some of the names have changed, not the least of which is the manager, now Pedro Grifol.

The biggest hope for a rebound is for those who underachieved in 2021 to snap back to their previous trajectory, perhaps with the new coaching staff guiding the way. The list of possible bounce-backs is long: Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, among others. It can happen, but when a team takes a step back during a stretch of seasons in which it is supposed to be contending, a talent infusion isn’t the worst idea. — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 20

Despite a potential change in ownership, the Angels have acted aggressively this offseason, spending a combined $90 million or so on six new players (two of whom were acquired via trade). They weren’t necessarily huge additions, but they helped the front office make major strides toward its primary goal of deepening the depth of the 40-man roster. Injuries have debilitated the Angels in recent years, more so than most teams. Their roster was too top-heavy — but that is no longer the case.

Now the question is whether what’s been done is enough, and whether they will finally field a team capable of getting Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani into the playoffs. The Angels are betting that those two, along with a healthy Anthony Rendon, an underrated starting rotation and a deeper position-player group will at least keep them relevant in September. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 21

Will the system produce? Can the revamped front office build depth and a contention-worthy bullpen? Two expensive offseasons have the Rangers in the range of playoff contention, though they don’t look like an elite squad just yet. But with the improvements in their rotation and last year’s splurge for Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, among others, it is hard to envision Texas spending its way from an 83- to 85-win baseline to upper-level contention. Getting there will come down to finding players to contribute from roster spots 12 through 40, players who typically come from internal development, scouting and canny acquisitions. That assumes, of course, that the free agents prove worthy of the Rangers’ investment. Even if they do, there is plenty of work left to be done. — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 14

Shortly after the Orioles unloaded money at the trade deadline, rather than add to a team that was in the playoff hunt, the club’s leadership suggested there would be a significant upgrade of the payroll in 2023. But Baltimore effectively bypassed the free agent market — its only signings were veterans on one-year deals, most notably pitcher Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. So if the Orioles are to improve upon their 83-win performance and make the playoffs this season, it will be because of the continued growth of their best young players. Adley Rutschman is already in the conversation for being the best catcher in baseball, and Gunnar Henderson is probably the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. — Olney

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 17

The Red Sox have reached a crossroads season that might lead them in one of two distinct directions. If they exceed expectations — let’s say they make the playoffs — then this will buy time for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to improve the roster and organization. But if the team struggles — Boston looks like the fourth- or fifth-best team in the division on paper — the calls from the Red Sox fan base for significant change will grow louder and angrier. The front office bet heavily in the offseason that an improved bullpen will make a significant difference in 2023, with Kenley Jansen taking over as closer. The Red Sox ranked 27th in bullpen WAR last season, with Boston relievers posting a 4.59 ERA. — Olney

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 19

They’re in a tough division, of course, but Arizona’s future nonetheless seems promising, with several talented young players — Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno on the position-player side, along with Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson on the pitching side — who will be ready to contribute in 2023. The D-backs acquired some veteran pieces this offseason, adding Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Kyle Lewis and Evan Longoria to a lineup that should be better. But their big question — When can they legitimately contend? — will be answered by the development of the aforementioned young players. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 22

The Cubs are sort of, kind of, half-heartedly making a push for bigger things in 2023. They signed Swanson for $177 million, hoping he can come close to replicating his career season he had with the Braves. Another 5.7-WAR season is optimistic, but Swanson and Nico Hoerner will at least give the Cubs elite middle infield defense and solid offense.

The additions of Bellinger, Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini are less inspiring. Bellinger provides good defense, but he hasn’t hit the past two seasons, including .210/.265/.389 in 2022 with a strikeout rate 11% higher than his 2019 MVP season. Jameson Taillon is the big add to the pitching staff and with Justin Steele‘s breakout and Hayden Wesneski‘s late-season performance, there is a scenario where the rotation pitches the Cubs into the postseason in a weak division. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 15

The prevailing question surrounding the Giants seems obvious: Where, exactly, are they headed? They began this offseason in pursuit of a star, the type of player they can build their franchise around. But they missed out on Judge, couldn’t agree with Correa and instead made moves along the margins once again, adding a couple of outfielders (Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto) and a trio of pitchers (Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and lefty reliever Taylor Rogers). The Giants don’t seem anywhere near the Padres or the Dodgers at the moment, but they also have a mid-tier farm system. Just two years removed from a shocking 107-win season, they suddenly look like a team without clear direction. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 23

Don Mattingly is gone after seven seasons and one playoff appearance in the shortened 2020 season, with Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker hired as the new manager. Indeed, the Marlins haven’t finished over .500 in a full season since 2009 or made the playoffs since 2003. But, hey, their 93 losses were the fewest in a full season since 2017. So … progress? Adding veterans Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto hardly moves the needle, but there is hope for a dominant rotation with full seasons from Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera and a bounce-back from Trevor Rogers alongside Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Fellow starter Pablo Lopez appears to be on the trade block for an outfield bat. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 28

Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana would be a great pair for the middle of the lineup — in 2013. A decade later, former NL MVP McCutchen returns to Pittsburgh at age 36 while 37-year-old Santana gives the club a 1B/DH option along with Ji-Man Choi. Oh, they also signed Rich Hill, who turns 43 in March. Sentiment notwithstanding, does any of this excite you? I guess it’s something. Perhaps some “how to do things the right way” insight from the wise veterans will rub off on some of the younger players, and it’s worth noting that McCutchen, Santana and Choi are all disciplined hitters. Pay attention, Oneil Cruz. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 25

What exactly is the plan for the rotation? The Royals signed a pair of veterans in free agency this year. One, righty Jordan Lyles, has a composite ERA+ of 89 over the past five seasons. The other, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, is at 94. For those not familiar, ERA+ is an indexed, park-adjusted version of ERA housed at baseball-reference.com in which 100 represents league average. League average, in theory, translates to 81-81 if all of your players are at that level. If they are below that level, then you aren’t really winning games, or at least not enough to contend or earn the interest of your fan base.

Both of the new pitchers are over 30 and their performances are well-established. They can eat innings but what really would be the point if the innings consist of a large quantity of below-average production? — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 24

The Rockies play half their games in the sport’s most favorable hitting environment and yet their team OPS has been exactly league average — .721 — since the start of the 2020 season. Kris Bryant, signed to a seven-year, $182 million contract last March that surprised a lot of people, was brought in to help fix that. He contributed an .851 OPS in his first season, but a troublesome back and a bout with plantar fasciitis limited him to 42 games. He’s 31 now, and the question is whether Bryant can stay healthy enough to play like a perennial All-Star in Colorado. This franchise can’t really move forward if Bryant doesn’t perform to the level of his contract. — Gonzalez

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 27

The Tigers finally decided to change the dimensions of Comerica Park, pulling in the fence in center field and lowering the height of the barrier in places. In doing so, they finally succumbed to years and years of whining from various power hitters who have come through Detroit over the years. This move has been a long time coming, so it’s not a knee-jerk reaction to the 2023 season — the considerations to make the changes are about the long run. But since we’re looking at next season, you wonder if the short-term effects could be ugly or, at the very least, work against the home team. The combination of factors behind this concern: Detroit’s starting staff is light on strikeouts and potentially heavy on long flies and is paired with a lineup that isn’t likely to rank high in homers, no matter where they play. — Doolittle

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 29

Since the start of last season, the A’s have unloaded Frankie Montas, Elvis Andrus and Murphy, completing the mass roster — and now, it’s unclear when the franchise will be competitively relevant again. Their big move this offseason was the signing of utility men Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson to two-year contracts. The highest-paid player on the Oakland roster is reliever Trevor May, who will make $7 million in 2023 — or about what Verlander and Scherzer will each make in April. The AL West figures to be one of baseball’s most competitive divisions, with the Rangers and Angels earnestly working to upgrade their rosters enough to challenge the Astros and Mariners. All of those teams will feast on the Athletics in 2023. — Olney

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 30

Were the Nationals terrible in 2022? Yes. Will they be bad in 2023? Almost certainly. The Nationals added some depth pieces in Dominic Smith, Jeimer Candelario and Corey Dickerson, guys who have produced in the past but not in 2022. The season, however, is about the development of the young players they hope turn into a core to build around: CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia, Cade Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray. — Schoenfield

Final 2022 regular-season ranking: 26

How different will the Reds look from Opening Day to the end of the season? This very much looks like another transitional season for the Reds, who carry one of the worst 2023 forecasts as we head toward the backstretch of the hot stove part of the calendar. But that’s not to say that the looming season won’t provide things to look forward to for the Cincinnati faithful.

There is a young 1-2-3 rotation of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. There is a plethora of exciting middle infielders, from Jose Barrero to Elly De La Cruz and others. The Reds aren’t likely to be good this season but they might well have some key components of the next Cincinnati team that will be good. How many of those players will be in place by the end of the coming season? — Doolittle

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NHL Power Rankings: 1-32 poll, plus small-sample superstars

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3 hours ago

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October 24, 2025

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NHL Power Rankings: 1-32 poll, plus small-sample superstars

It is way too early to make any definitive conclusions about the 2025-26 NHL season.

But then again, it’s the perfect time to celebrate some small-sample superstars.

As part of this week’s new edition of the ESPN NHL Power Rankings, we’ve identified a player on each team that has excelled way beyond expectation thus far.

How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our list.

Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Oct. 17. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games; other stats are through Wednesday’s games, unless otherwise noted.

Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 81.3%

Scott Wedgewood. The 33-year-old journeyman netminder had backstopped five different clubs since his debut in 2015-16. Are we witnessing a breakout a decade later? Wedgewood started the season 5-0-2, generating a 1.84 goals-against average and .927 save percentage, helping the Avs roll to the top of the standings.

Next seven days: @ BOS (Oct. 25), @ NJ (Oct. 26), vs. NJ (Oct. 28)

Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 85.7%

Jack Eichel. Eichel has many accomplishments in his career, but has yet to hit the 100-point benchmark in a single season, coming closest in 2024-25 with 94. The NHL’s current scoring leader had 16 through seven games, which is a 187-point pace; it’s unlikely he hits that lofty mark, but triple digits does seem in play.

Next seven days: @ FLA (Oct. 25), @ TB (Oct. 26), @ CAR (Oct. 28)

Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 85.7%

Seth Jarvis. The 23-year-old already made a name for himself with back-to-back 30-goal seasons and a strong showing at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Does he have another gear? He scored nine points through six games (including six goals).

Next seven days: @ DAL (Oct. 25), vs. VGK (Oct. 28), vs. NYI (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 85.7%

Jake Allen. With all due respect to Jesper Bratt (with a team-high 11 points through seven games) and Jack Hughes (who led the team to a win against the Maple Leafs with a hat trick), the nod goes to goaltender Allen. He is 3-0-0 thus far this season, with a .931 save percentage (his career mark is .908) and 1.91 goals-against average (compared to 2.75 for his career).

Next seven days: vs. SJ (Oct. 24), vs. COL (Oct. 26), @ COL (Oct. 28), @ SJ (Oct. 30)

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Jack Hughes scores hat trick in Devils’ win

Jack Hughes leads the Devils to a 5-2 win over the Maple Leafs with his third career hat trick.

Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 71.4%

Mark Scheifele. The Jets’ top-line center has reached double digits in goals every season since 2013-14, topping out at 42 in 2022-23. Is this the season he gets 50? With seven through six games, he’s off to quite the start.

Next seven days: vs. CGY (Oct. 24), vs. UTA (Oct. 26), @ MIN (Oct. 28), vs. CHI (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 71.4%

Tom Wilson. Certainly known more for his truculence and intimidation than a deft scoring touch, the 31-year-old winger has 10 points to his name through seven games. Perhaps more surprisingly, he has just two penalty minutes in that same span!

Next seven days: @ CBJ (Oct. 24), vs. OTT (Oct. 25), @ DAL (Oct. 28)

Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 62.5%

Emmitt Finnie. Has a new entrant entered the Calder Trophy chat? A seventh-round pick (No. 201 overall) in 2023, Finnie has been riding shotgun on the Wings’ top line with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond this season. So far, so good, as he’s registered six points through the first seven games.

Next seven days: vs. STL (Oct. 25), @ STL (Oct. 28), @ LA (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.7%

Jakub Dobes. All honor to captain Nick Suzuki, who has 11 points through eight games, but the lean goes to Dobes, who won his first four starts while generating a .950 save percentage and 1.47 goals-against average.

Next seven days: @ VAN (Oct. 25), @ SEA (Oct. 28)

Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 75%

Nick Schmaltz. For the Mammoth to earn a playoff spot out of the brutal Central Division, they’ll need everyone firing on all cylinders — and some breakout performances too. Schmaltz’s start certainly fits into the latter category, as his 10 points through seven games has him on pace for well over 100, which would shatter his career-best mark of 63 he set last season.

Next seven days: @ MIN (Oct. 25), @ WPG (Oct. 26), @ EDM (Oct. 28)

Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 754%

Justin Brazeau. Many believed that the 2025-26 season was going to go similarly to the 2024-25 campaign, and that the Penguins would elect to trade away veterans in exchange for picks and prospects to help the rebuild. Instead, they were in second place in the Metro Division through seven games, and Brazeau — with a previous single-season career high of 22 points — already has eight points in those seven contests.

Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Oct. 25), vs. STL (Oct. 27), @ PHI (Oct. 28), @ MIN (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 44.4%

Brad Marchand. Now in his 18th NHL season, Marchand has been many things throughout his career. Rarely is he a point-per-game player, a feat he last eclipsed in the late 2010s and early 2020s. But through eight games, he’s right on that pace, with three goals and five assists.

Next seven days: vs. VGK (Oct. 25), vs. ANA (Oct. 28)

Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 50%

William Nylander. The 29-year-old winger has been a steady source of production throughout his Leafs tenure, but has never scored triple-digit points. Is this the season that changes? With 13 through seven games, he’s well ahead of that pace.

Next seven days: @ BUF (Oct. 24), vs. BUF (Oct. 25), vs. CGY (Oct. 28), @ CBJ (Oct. 29)

Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 50%

Jimmy Snuggerud. The Blues haven’t gotten off to the start they’d envisioned, but rookie winger Snuggerud has been every bit as good as expected. If he continues to score goals at this pace, he’s certain to earn a sizable portion of Calder Trophy votes.

Next seven days: @ DET (Oct. 25), @ PIT (Oct. 27), vs. DET (Oct. 28), vs. VAN (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 62.5%

Spencer Knight. Honorable mention here to the Blackhawks’ dynamic young duo of Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar, both of whom scored seven points through seven games. We’re giving the nod to Knight, who came over in the Seth Jones trade last season and looks every bit like a future franchise netminder in the small sample of 2025-26: through five games, he’s generated a .937 save percentage and 1.96 goals-against average.

Next seven days: vs. LA (Oct. 26), vs. OTT (Oct. 28), @ WPG (Oct. 30)

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Ryan Donato scores late winner for Blackhawks

Ryan Donato scores with less than a minute left on the clock to give Chicago a 3-2 win over Tampa Bay.

Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 56.3%

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The longest-tenured member of the Oilers, the Nuge’s current career high in points is 104, a mark he hit in 2022-23. Through seven games, he’s at seven points, on pace for 82, which would be the second most in his career.

Next seven days: @ SEA (Oct. 25), @ VAN (Oct. 26), vs. UTA (Oct. 28), vs. NYR (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50%

Dan Vladar. For a franchise which has had a Sisyphean pursuit of goaltending excellence for decades, might they have found it in the 28-year-old Vladar? Through four starts, the Czech native has gone 3-1-0, with a .929 save percentage and 1.75 goals-against average.

Next seven days: vs. NYI (Oct. 25), vs. PIT (Oct. 28), vs. NSH (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 62.5%

Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz has never been known as a high-scoring forward — his career high of 63 was set back in 2014-15. But his five points through seven games are tied for the team lead as Seattle is shockingly in playoff position midway through the first month.

Next seven days: vs. EDM (Oct. 25), vs. MTL (Oct. 28)

Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 50%

Thatcher Demko. Perhaps the Canucks’ spot in the standings is a mild surprise. But if Demko keeps playing as he started — 3-1-0, with a .922 save percentage and 2.28 goals-against average — it’ll provide the foundation for a real contender, and potentially get him on the U.S. Olympic team too.

Next seven days: vs. MTL (Oct. 25), vs. EDM (Oct. 26), vs. NYR (Oct. 28), @ STL (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 64.3%

Beckett Sennecke. Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish are also off to hot starts, but that was expected. The surprise of the forward group thus far is Sennecke, the No. 3 pick of the 2024 draft who has five points through six games, skating on the second line and second power-play unit.

Next seven days: @ TB (Oct. 25), @ FLA (Oct. 28)

Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 50%

Thomas Harley. The Stars have a quartet of skaters who registered six points through the club’s first six games: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston and Harley. The three forwards have approached or eclipsed a point-per-game pace for a full season previously; if Harley keeps this pace, he’ll shatter his single-season mark of 50, set in 2024-25.

Next seven days: vs. CAR (Oct. 25), @ NSH (Oct. 26), vs. WSH (Oct. 28), @ TB (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 43.8%

Matt Boldy. Two Wild skaters scored five goals through the club’s first eight games. One of them signed a $17 million average annual value contract extension this preseason that kicks in in 2026-27, while the other will be making $10 million less per season on his through 2029-30. So while Kirill Kaprizov‘s start is great, we give the nod to Boldy.

Next seven days: vs. UTA (Oct. 25), vs. SJ (Oct. 26), vs. WPG (Oct. 28), vs. PIT (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 44.4%

Igor Shesterkin. By season’s end, the Rangers may well be among the NHL’s best. The goal scoring has lagged thus far, but the goal prevention has been top-notch thanks to Shesterkin, who has thus far generated a .957 save percentage and 1.17 goals-against average; and yet, he started 2-3-1 thanks to a lack of goal support.

Next seven days: @ CGY (Oct. 26), @ VAN (Oct. 28), @ EDM (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 50%

Kirill Marchenko. Marchenko tied for the team lead in goals last season, with 31, and appears to be motivated to best that total in 2025-26. Through six games, he has five goals, including a hat trick against the Wild back on Oct. 11.

Next seven days: vs. WSH (Oct. 24), @ PIT (Oct. 25), @ BUF (Oct. 28), vs. TOR (Oct. 29)

Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 57.1%

Matthew Schaefer. The Islanders thought they might have landed a special player with the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. Little did they know that 18-year-old Schaefer would be leading all rookies in scoring with seven points through six games, and leading his own team in average ice time, with 22:06 per game.

Next seven days: @ PHI (Oct. 25), @ BOS (Oct. 28), @ CAR (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50%

Adrian Kempe. The start of the 2025-26 campaign hasn’t gone as well as planned for the Kings, but Kempe has kept the fire burning a bit. Through seven games, he was on pace for 105 points, which would shatter his career-best mark of 75, set in 2023-24.

Next seven days: @ NSH (Oct. 25), @ CHI (Oct. 26), @ SJ (Oct. 28), vs. DET (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50%

Roman Josi. As the Predators hope to reverse course from last season’s debacle, a key component will be Norris Trophy-caliber play from blueliner Josi. Skating 24:56 per contest and leading the team with five points through seven games, he’s doing his part.

Next seven days: vs. LA (Oct. 25), vs. DAL (Oct. 26), vs. TB (Oct. 28), @ PHI (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 42.9%

Zach Benson. Still just 20 years old, this is Benson’s third season after making the NHL right after being drafted 13th overall in 2023. But, are we witnessing his breakout? He has six points through four games, playing in all-situations for the Sabres.

Next seven days: vs. TOR (Oct. 24), @ TOR (Oct. 25), vs. CBJ (Oct. 28), @ BOS (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 33.3%

Pavel Zacha. If the Bruins’ season goes sideways, we may hear a lot of buzz on Zacha being a trade target. But if he keeps performing the way he has — he maintained a point-per-game pace through the first eight contests — the second-line anchor will be a big reason why the B’s remain at least somewhat competitive.

Next seven days: vs. COL (Oct. 25), @ OTT (Oct. 27), vs. NYI (Oct. 28), vs. BUF (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 43.8%

Shane Pinto. With captain Brady Tkachuk out injured, the Senators need everyone to step up. Pinto, the 24-year-old Long Island native, has answered the call best, with seven goals through seven games.

Next seven days: @ WSH (Oct. 25), vs. BOS (Oct. 27), @ CHI (Oct. 28), vs. CGY (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 28.6%

Anthony Cirelli. A player generally considered more in the mold of 200-foot pivots like Patrice Bergeron and Aleksander Barkov, Cirelli’s three goals through six games put him well ahead of his career-best pace of 27, set last season.

Next seven days: vs. ANA (Oct. 25), vs. VGK (Oct. 26), @ NSH (Oct. 28), vs. DAL (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 18.8%

Nazem Kadri. It’s a bit of a stretch to find a small-sample “star” for the Flames, so we’ll go with their current leading scorer, with four assists through eight games. Kadri is in the fourth of seven seasons on his current deal, but could entice teams in need of depth and toughness down the middle ahead of the trade deadline.

Next seven days: @ WPG (Oct. 24), vs. NYR (Oct. 26), @ TOR (Oct. 28), @ OTT (Oct. 30)

Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 28.6%

Dmitry Orlov. The positive ascent for the franchise and its young core group continues. But will this also be a breakout campaign at age 34 for Orlov? The veteran blueliner — who made his debut when Macklin Celebrini was five years old — is on pace to eclipse 60 points, which would shatter a career high of 36 he tallied when he played on a team with Alex Ovechkin.

Next seven days: @ NJ (Oct. 24), @ MIN (Oct. 26), vs. LA (Oct. 28), vs. NJ (Oct. 30)

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The only World Series preview you need: Odds, likely MVPs and how many games Dodgers-Blue Jays will go

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3 hours ago

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October 24, 2025

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The only World Series preview you need: Odds, likely MVPs and how many games Dodgers-Blue Jays will go

Oct 24, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays. NL West vs. AL East. Shohei Ohtani vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It’s time for Game 1 of the 2025 World Series, featuring an L.A. squad looking to repeat as champions against a team that hasn’t won it all since going back-to-back in 1992-93 — and we’re here to get you ready for all the action.

With the first pitch of Game 1 scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre, we break down the players and matchups that matter most for both teams. We also asked our ESPN MLB experts to make their picks for who will win the Series, how many games it will take and who will be the MVP of this Fall Classic.

Jump to: Dodgers | Blue Jays | Our predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chance of winning: 60.4% | ESPN BET odds: -210

What’s on the line for the Dodgers: History! Big-time history. The Dodgers are looking to become the first repeat champions since the Yankees won three years in a row from 1998 to 2000. L.A. would love to send Clayton Kershaw into retirement as a champion, even if he’ll probably be watching this one from the bench or the bullpen.

And while it’s fair game to hate the Dodgers for buying an entire starting rotation, it’s worth noting they won it all last year with a 98-win regular season and might win this year following a 93-win regular season, but did not win in seasons of 104 wins (2017), 106 wins (2019), 106 wins again (2021) 111 wins (2022) and 100 wins (2023). This could be one of the great dynasties in MLB history but in the eyes of some, they’ll need back-to-back titles to officially earn that designation. — David Schoenfield

Three reasons L.A. can win:

  1. Starting pitching. Dodgers starters have posted a 1.40 ERA in these playoffs, the lowest ever for a team that played at least 10 postseason games. Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani have already contributed eight starts of at least six innings and no more than three runs allowed. And if their collective dominance wasn’t enough, they’ll go into this World Series on extended rest, giving manager Dave Roberts more freedom to push his starters even deeper into games. The Dodgers won it all last year with a dominant bullpen that made up for a very limited starting rotation. It’s the opposite this year, and it’s a much easier way to live.

  2. The depth of their lineup. Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy have all slumped to varying degrees in the two series since the Dodgers cruised past the Reds in the wild-card round, but the likes of Kiké Hernández, Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith have picked up the slack along the way. And that’s what’s so dangerous about this team: even when their superstars are off track, others can step up. The offense never fully clicked against the Phillies or the Brewers, but that can turn at any moment — especially with Smith seemingly fully recovered from his hairline fracture.

  3. Roki Sasaki. Nobody will benefit more from extended rest than the converted starting pitcher who, we should note, is still navigating his first season in the States. Sasaki recaptured his velocity, displayed immediate comfort in a high-leverage bullpen role and has dominated as the Dodgers’ newfound closer, allowing just one run in eight postseason innings. At this point, there are no restrictions with Sasaki. He can pitch in back-to-backs, he can come in mid-inning, and he can record up to nine outs, as he did in the NLDS clincher. The Dodgers might be weak in the bullpen, but if their starters are pitching deep and Sasaki is picking up most of the rest, it’s really tough to score against them. — Alden Gonzalez

Where the Dodgers are vulnerable: Even a casual observer would quickly note that the Dodgers’ bullpen is still a question mark — especially as compared to the rest of the team. The relievers have compiled a 4.88 ERA in nine playoff games after their 4.21 mark ranked 21st in that category during the regular season.

Manager Dave Roberts left nothing to chance last round, letting his starters throw all but 7⅓ innings against the Brewers with Sasaki picking up 2⅔ of those. Outside of Sasaki, no L.A. reliever has thrown more than 4⅔ innings this postseason. Getting Dodgers starters to high pitch counts is an easier-said-than-done strategy, but it could be a winning one for Toronto because getting into that pen is the Blue Jays’ best chance. — Jesse Rogers

How the Dodgers can pitch Vlad Jr.: The unique thing about Guerrero among other power hitters is his flatter swing plane. This means that while sluggers like Ohtani and the Yankees’ Aaron Judge struggle with flat four-seam fastballs at the top of the zone because their lofted swing plane doesn’t intersect much with that, Guerrero’s comparatively flat swing plane does. Guerrero also has more innate bat control, so his in-zone miss rate is lower, basically missing only on some of the fringes of the zone. But, since he doesn’t lift the ball as well, missing a spot could mean a ball hit 110-plus mph off the bat still isn’t an extra-base hit.

With this in mind, you don’t want to throw Guerrero any fastballs if you can help it and definitely need to keep them away if you’re going to throw some to set up an off-speed pitch. This sets up well for Snell, the Game 1 starter, to work away with fastballs and tunnel them with his emerging changeup.

The power righties on the Dodgers’ staff already tend to work away from right-handed hitters with their fastballs, but Guerrero’s bat speed means he’s even better against cutters/sliders than curveballs/sweepers/changeups/splitters. I’d expect Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani to mix in fastballs away to keep Guerrero off of the steady diet of soft stuff away. Yamamoto’s curveball and splitter are particularly well-suited for this task while Ohtani and Glasnow are more power and velocity-oriented, even with their off-speed stuff. — Kiley McDaniel

Jeff Passan’s inside intel:

  • The split-fingered fastball is the pitch of the postseason, something for which the Dodgers are thankful because of the nastiness of Yamamoto’s, Ohtani’s and Sasaki’s. But Los Angeles hitters have seen only 47 splitters (3.2% of all pitches) in October. That will decidedly change over the next week. Blue Jays pitchers have thrown splitters more than 15% of the time this postseason, and whether it’s Kevin Gausman or Trey Yesavage starting the first two games or Dominguez and Jeff Hoffman finishing them, Los Angeles’ ability to hit the split will be a deciding factor in the effectiveness of their offense.

  • What’s terrifying about the Dodgers is their offense really hasn’t gotten going. Freeman and Muncy each have one RBI in Los Angeles’ 10 games, and they’re getting spun to death, with Freeman facing 38% breaking balls and Muncy 41.2%. Beyond Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez, Dodgers hitters have just four home runs in 301 plate appearances. Their pitching has been so good that the offensive mediocrity hasn’t mattered, but they’ve also faced two pitching staffs in Philadelphia and Milwaukee that are considerably better than Toronto’s. The Blue Jays have thrown the fewest strikes by far of any playoff team. More than a quarter of opponents’ plate appearances have gone to three-ball counts. There’s real opportunity, a scout said, for the Dodgers “to break out in a big way.”

  • “I want to see who wins the battle of the changeups,” another scout said, “because that is Toronto’s chance at making this a series.” Dodgers pitchers have been the kings of change this postseason, generating swings on 60.2% of their 108 changeups and misses on 60% of those swings — both the best numbers of any playoff team that got past the wild-card round. Blue Jays hitters, meanwhile, are destroying changeups, with three home runs and a slash of .579/.600/1.105 on the pitch. And, yes, it’s only 20 plate appearances that ended on a changeup, but they’ve handled them well enough to cajole pitchers into being ultra-careful. It’s strength vs. strength, the game inside the game. May the best team win.

Toronto Blue Jays

Chance of winning: 39.6% | ESPN BET odds: +175

What’s on the line for the Blue Jays: Their first championship since the glory days of 1992-93, when the Jays won back-to-back World Series with two of the most star-studded rosters ever assembled. (Roberto Alomar, Paul Molitor, John Olerud, Rickey Henderson, Joe Carter, Devon White, Dave Winfield, David Cone, Jack Morris, Dave Stewart, Jimmy Key, Juan Guzman, Pat Hentgen, Tom Henke)

A title would also give validation to an organization that has had a lot of success in recent years but went 0-6 in three previous playoff trips this decade. Validation that they made the right move in signing Guerrero to a much-criticized $500 million contract. And, of course, there’s the matter of saving us from the Dodgers ruining baseball.

Three reasons Toronto can win:

  1. Low strikeout rate. The Blue Jays don’t strike out. This series could come down to which strength triumphs: Toronto’s contact rate or the Dodgers starters’ whiff rate. The Blue Jays led the majors in contact percentage (80.5%) during the regular season and they have the lowest strikeout rate (14.8%) in the postseason by a good margin. Meanwhile, L.A.’s starting pitchers have posted the highest whiff rate (39.4%) during the postseason. The Dodgers cruised to the World Series behind their historically dominant starting rotation. That dominance allowed manager Dave Roberts to avoid overexposing his underwhelming bullpen, which is their clear weakness. Getting to the Dodgers bullpen early and often is the Blue Jays’ surest path to victory. To do that, they’ll have to inflict some damage on the Dodgers’ starting rotation — or at least effectively raise pitch counts to force Roberts to hand the ball to relievers in the middle innings.

  2. Defense. Remember last year, when, after winning the World Series, the Dodgers bluntly and repeatedly said that their game plan was to apply pressure on the Yankees and make them beat themselves? The Yankees’ Game 5 meltdown is infamous but a defensive miscue also proved costly in Game 1. Well, these Blue Jays are a far more sound defensive club. They ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved (the Dodgers were third) and ninth in outs above average (the Dodgers were 12th) during the regular season. The prowess was recently recognized when five players were named finalists for a Gold Glove, with Ernie Clement nominated for the award at third base and as a utilityman. The Blue Jays shouldn’t give the Dodgers extra outs, and that’s a start in pulling off this upset.

  3. The star duo of George Springer and Guerrero. Springer’s 2025 resurgence has continued into a throwback October performance highlighted by that go-ahead three-run home run in Game 7 of the ALCS. The Dodgers know all about Springer’s playoff prowess, eight years removed from him hitting five home runs and being named 2017 World Series MVP when Houston beat L.A. Springer’s production later became tainted by the Astros’ cheating scandal, but he still is tied for third all-time in postseason home runs with 23. Guerrero, on the other hand, had an ugly playoff history before becoming the best hitter this October, slashing .442/.510/.930 in 11 postseason games. His six home runs in these playoffs tied the franchise record for most career postseason home runs. He has twice as many walks (six) as strikeouts (three) in 51 plate appearances. The Blue Jays have received contributions from one through nine all postseason, but they need Springer and Guerrero, their two best hitters, to shine to beat the Dodgers four times. — Jorge Castillo

Where the Blue Jays are vulnerable: Neither team has a good postseason bullpen ERA but Toronto is more vulnerable in this area, if only because of workload concerns. Hoffman, after an uneven regular season, has been dynamite in the playoffs. None of the rest of the Blue Jays’ relievers have been consistent. Maybe they found something in Chris Bassitt‘s Game 7 high-leverage appearance against Seattle, but the key really will be for the Toronto starters to match the innings of their Dodgers counterparts as much as possible. That would simplify matters and keep manager John Schneider from having to improvise to the extent he did to survive the Seattle series. You never know when it comes to bullpens, but one thing we can say for sure is that the Blue Jays had to work a lot harder to get here than the Dodgers. — Bradford Doolittle

How the Blue Jays can pitch Ohtani: Similar to Judge (I broke down how to attack him, too), Ohtani will whiff, strike out and has a longer swing (look for the blue on his Statcast page). You can get him to whiff or make weak contact on the fringes of the strike zone or just outside it, but the price to pay if you miss those spots is heavy. Ohtani likes the ball middle-in and middle-up — that’s where he swings and where he does damage (and he doesn’t miss on middle-middle pitches). In response, pitchers tend to pitch him middle-down and middle-away. Throwing softer stuff (sweepers/curveballs from lefties and changeup/splitters from righties) down and away and four-seam fastballs above the top of the zone to try to get a frustrated chase out of Ohtani seems like the combination to lean into here. For Gausman and Yesavage (great splitters, just OK breaking stuff, medium velocity), that high heater is a little riskier, so leaning on splitters and overall command will be key. — McDaniel

Passan’s inside intel:

  • Of all the burning questions for the Blue Jays — such as what they will do with Bo Bichette and how they fare against Los Angeles’ four aces — the most troubling could concern their lack of clear left-handed-pitching options. Considering Philadelphia and Milwaukee carved Ohtani up with a panoply of lefties, the struggles of the Blue Jays’ lefty arms this postseason plays right into the Dodgers’ hands. Three of Los Angeles’ best hitters (Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy) are lefties, and Ohtani and Muncy, in particular, are far better against right-handed pitchers. Schneider needs to figure out early in the series if any of his left-handed options (Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer) will work against the Dodgers’ boppers or if he’ll instead turn to Seranthony Dominguez (whose splitter runs away from lefty hitters) or Bassitt (with his wide array of offerings) to try to tame them.

  • Based on how Blue Jays pitchers have worked during their 11 playoff games this year, Dodgers hitters should be comfortable inside the batter’s box. Toronto pitchers have thrown pitches classified as “inside” just 25.3% of the time this postseason — the lowest of any of the dozen playoff teams and lower than all 30 teams during the regular season. Toronto’s propensity to hammer the outside seems destined to put Dodgers hitters in an advantageous position. During the regular season, Los Angeles had the second-highest OPS of any team on pitches on the outer half of the plate (behind, incidentally, Toronto), and the Dodgers have hit five homers on outer-half pitches this postseason (the Blue Jays have 10).

  • Toronto leads all teams in almost every offensive category this postseason. Beyond the runs scored (6.45 per game, with the Dodgers second at 4.6) and the obscenely gaudy triple-slash (.296/.355/.523, with every other team a combined .218/.297/.361), the Blue Jays are an excellent baserunning team and don’t strike out. But there are areas of weakness that Los Angeles can expose. “They can be beat with velo,” one scout said of Toronto. While the Blue Jays have batted .277 on 97-mph-plus fastballs, they’ve got only one home run against them, and keeping Toronto in the park is vital for Dodgers pitchers. Further, another scout said to “use their aggressiveness and get ahead in the count” because as much as the Blue Jays swing (52.6% of pitches and 37.7% first pitches, both MLB highs in the playoffs), they are susceptible in pitchers’ counts, with an OPS (.548) behind the Dodgers’ (.553).

Our predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers (11 votes)

Voters: Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Kiley McDaniel, Buster Olney, Tim Keown, Doug Glanville, Jesse Rogers, Bradford Doolittle, Tim Kurkjian, Jeff Passan, Tristan Cockcroft

In how many games? Seven (1 vote), six (8 votes), five (2 votes)
MVP: Shohei Ohtani (5 votes), Mookie Betts (2 votes), Blake Snell (2 votes), Teoscar Hernandez (1 vote), Freddie Freeman (1 vote)

Toronto Blue Jays (3 votes)

Voters: Eric Karabell, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo

In how many games? Seven (3 votes)
MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3 votes)

Explaining our picks

Why did you pick the Dodgers to repeat as champions?

The Dodgers are winning the World Series in around 60% of my simulations, and while it’s a toss-up whether a five- or six-game outcome is more likely, I like the longer series because of a combination of Toronto’s momentum and the energy it’ll get from an amped-up home crowd. These are intangible factors but sometimes you play a hunch.

As for why the Dodgers will win …

1. The way they had to juggle starting pitchers all season has ended up having the effect of a carefully orchestrated program of load management. Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani combined for 198⅔ innings during the regular season. Only Yamamoto avoided the IL and he still barely qualified for the ERA title. Now we’re seeing how this quartet looks in high-stakes games with more or less full tanks of proverbial gas. And they look historically good.

2. L.A. has lost only once all postseason despite getting one home run in total out of the trio of Freeman, Betts and Smith. That’s probably not great news for the Blue Jays.

3. The Blue Jays have leaned on the splitter this postseason, as has been oft-noted. In terms of total splitters thrown, they have four of the top 12: Gausman (1st), Yesavage (2nd), Hoffman (8th) and Dominguez (12th).

Well, among the 199 hitters who have seen at least 50 splitters combined during the regular season and playoffs, the WOBA leaderboard against the pitch features: Freeman (.581, 1st), Betts (.579, 2nd), Muncy (.450, 14th) and Ohtani (.409, 21st). Yes, Dodgers pitchers throw a lot of splitters as well, and the Blue Jays have been the best-hitting team in the majors against them (.753 OPS, including the playoffs, versus .725 for the third-ranked Dodgers). But just look at that list of names for the Dodgers. — Doolittle

And why do you think the Blue Jays will win it all?

The Blue Jays are the one AL team that can match up with the Dodgers because they have an offense that can counter the Dodgers’ rotation and its ability to miss bats. The Blue Jays had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors in the regular season (17.8%) and have been even better in the playoffs (14.8%) while averaging 6.5 runs per game and hitting 20 home runs in 11 games.

That’s the primary reason to believe in the Jays, but here are a few of the other reasons why I think they’ll beat the Dodgers:

  • When Guerrero is hot like this, he has the bat control and plate discipline to do damage against even the best pitching.

  • In Springer, the Jays have one of the great October performers of the wild-card era. He has a .939 OPS and four home runs this postseason and provides an immediate threat at the top of the Toronto lineup.

  • The bottom of the order did a lot of damage in the ALCS, with the 7-8-9 hitters batting .284/.338/.500 with 13 runs and 12 RBIs. Neither the Phillies nor the Brewers had the bottom-of-the-lineup production that the Jays can offer.

  • The Jays have done all this without Bichette, who hit .311 with 94 RBIs in the regular season, but has missed the playoffs with a knee injury. He may be ready for the World Series and while it’s probably unlikely he’ll play the field, he might be a possibility for DH, if Springer can play the outfield after getting hit on the knee in Game 5 against the Mariners.

  • Toronto’s rotation has a 3.33 ERA in the playoffs while holding opponents to a .214 average. Gausman lines up against any of the Dodgers aces, with just four runs allowed in his three starts and rookie Trey Yesavage has a unique delivery combined with plus-plus stuff that can be dominant if he throws enough strikes, while Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are certainly capable

  • Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed just one run so far in 7⅓ innings this postseason (with 12 strikeouts and two walks).

  • The Jays have lefties in the bullpen to counter Ohtani and Freeman. Mason Fluharty held lefties to a .182 average and Brendon Little a .195 average while Eric Lauer provides a long relief option if needed.

  • Defense matters, and the Jays have Gold Glove finalists in center fielder Daulton Varsho, catcher Alejandro Kirk and infielders Andres Gimenez and Ernie Clement.

Finally: The Dodgers bullpen will blow a game. Or two. — Schoenfield

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Which NHL teams have the most to prove in 2025-26? Placing 13 teams into tiers

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October 24, 2025

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Which NHL teams have the most to prove in 2025-26? Placing 13 teams into tiers

  • Neil PaineOct 22, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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      Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.

Few teams in NHL history have proved themselves in the face of their doubters more than the Florida Panthers of the past few seasons.

After getting humiliated as a Presidents’ Trophy winner in 2022 — swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning as their historic offense was mostly silenced — Florida rebuilt its identity under Bill Zito and Paul Maurice, traded for toughness with Matthew Tkachuk, leaned into defense and the goaltending of Sergei Bobrovsky, and turned those lessons into a championship blueprint: three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances, back-to-back titles and a bona fide dynasty.

But when one team proves so much, it doesn’t leave much room for others to do the same. So in many ways, this NHL season will be defined by the teams outside of South Florida that need to do a lot of proving of their own.

To help sort out which clubs have the most on the line in this prove-it 2025-26 season, we grouped 13 of them into five categories of teams with work to do and boxes to check. These range from longtime contenders still knocking on the door to hyped up-and-comers, possibly-past-their-prime powers and franchises whose fans would simply love them to prove they can make the playoffs every so often.

The common thread for all is that they have to change the story around their team, just like Florida had to do a few years ago. Let’s unpack each — and see who’s under the most pressure to get the job done this season.

The now-or-nevers

We’ve written about it here before, but the primary victims of Florida’s success in recent seasons have been the teams that repeatedly came close to a title but couldn’t break through. So this group is all about those that are seeking to prove they can finally make the championship leap — and especially those with a ticking clock on how long they can keep trying, and failing, to turn their potential into a parade.

Chief among this type of team? Clearly the Edmonton Oilers, who finally skated for the Cup for the first time in the Connor McDavid–Leon Draisaitl era in 2024 after never previously advancing further than being swept in the conference finals. But back-to-back losses to Florida have raised the question of whether they can ever truly get over the hump.

The main things to prove might be whether the returning tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard can provide better goaltending than the .866 SV% they collectively posted in last season’s Final — and if this season’s offense, bolstered by the additions of Jack Roslovic and Andrew Mangiapane, can score enough for it not to matter.

Though McDavid recently inked a contract extension, it only runs through 2027-28, so the Oilers’ window to compete still has a short shelf life.

And then there are the Carolina Hurricanes and Dallas Stars, who are well past the point where they need to at least break through to the Final, if not win the Cup. The two teams have combined to win an incredible 62 playoff games (32 for Dallas, 30 for Carolina) since 2022 without a single Stanley Cup Final appearance to show for it. No other team in the league had more such wins than the New York Rangers‘ 23.

For Carolina, the team must demonstrate that its strategy of dominating possession — the Hurricanes have led the NHL’s offensive zone time-tracking metric every year it has existed — isn’t destined to forever be stonewalled by an elite goalie when the team runs up against one in the playoffs.

Dallas needs to prove that all the offseason moves it made (including moving on from coach Peter DeBoer to Glen Gulutzan) were necessary to get this team to the next level.

Dallas is younger, whereas Carolina has more of its core locked up longer, but both teams can feel the weight of time, and expectations, demanding a Finals run … maybe even against one another.

The snakebit histories

Now we get to the teams that haven’t even made it far enough to qualify as a now-or-never breakthrough candidate. These teams have had plenty of regular-season success, but they perpetually lose in Round 1 of the playoffs — or, on the odd occasion, win a series before a big letdown in the next round.

And over the past handful of seasons, nobody fits this mold more than the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets.

Since 2018-19, Toronto and Winnipeg rank third and seventh in total standings points, respectively, and yet they are the only members of the top eight on that list to fail to win 40 playoff games in that span — and neither is even close to that mark. (Neither has 30 wins, much less 40.)

The Leafs‘ history of choking in the playoffs is extensive and well-documented. Before 2023, this team hadn’t so much as won a single postseason series since 2004, and the Leafs still haven’t reached the conference finals since 2002 — to go with zero Cups since 1967, the final year of the NHL’s Original Six era.

As part of that, they own an eight-game losing streak in winner-take-all playoff games, the second-longest such skid in hockey history. There are micro-level things Toronto also needs to convince us about, such as offensive life after Mitch Marner (so far, so good) and if it can ever get the playoff goaltending it needs. But the main thing to prove is that the Leafs can overcome the ghosts of this franchise’s many past failures.

Winnipeg‘s playoff struggles feel less biblical but are no better in the aggregate. After winning two total series in its first go-round — before the franchise relocated to Arizona — the version that rose from the ashes of the Atlanta Thrashers made a conference finals run in 2018 but has advanced to the second round only twice since then.

Last season was supposed to change all that, but the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets barely beat the Blues in Round 1 and were then knocked off by the Stars as league MVP Connor Hellebuyck was outplayed by Jake Oettinger in net. Now the Jets have to show that their ascendance last season was no fluke, that they can be a playoff team in addition to a regular-season one, and that Hellebuyck can handle the pressure after three straight terrible postseason performances.

The hype trains

This is the place for those teams with young, exciting talent that haven’t exactly proved what they can do yet. They’re fun, marketable and full of promise — but as so many of the league’s up-and-coming squads of the past can tell you, promise alone lasts only so long.

Within this group, the New Jersey Devils stand out a bit because they have been riding the hype train a little longer than the other two teams. The 2022-23 Devils appeared to announce themselves early as the league’s next big thing behind a roster that ranked fourth on offense, eighth on defense … and third youngest in average age.

But electric center Jack Hughes missed parts of the next two seasons, the team regressed and fired its coach, and the Devils only slightly reclaimed their prior potential last season. The 2025-26 version is off to a good start, but New Jersey needs to win some playoff series to get back to where we assumed it would be by now.

As for the Montreal Canadiens and Chicago Blackhawks, both have started the season fairly strong with rosters that rank 1-2 in the NHL in youngest average age.

Along with the Devils, the Canadiens were anticipated to be one of the league’s most improved teams this season, building on their playoff return a season ago with a young core that is now pretty well locked in after defenseman Lane Hutson‘s recent contract extension.

Now the job for Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Noah Dobson, Hutson & Co. is to see how much better they can continue to get this season — and whether they’ll belong in the Cup-contending conversation by the spring.

The Blackhawks are further from that goal than the Canadiens, but new coach Jeff Blashill has them playing much better than they did a season ago. Connor Bedard continues to make progress, and Frank Nazar has been an early-season star, while the Blackhawks appear to be a bit better on the goal-prevention side as well.

Chicago must prove that last season was simply a disappointing speed bump along its road to rebuilding a new winner with Bedard as the centerpiece.

The do-overs

Last season, the hype machine broke down for a number of teams that were expected to be Cup contenders, and perhaps no teams were bigger offenders than this trio. Each is out to show that 2024-25 was a fluke and it deserves another shot in 2025-26.

The New York Rangers‘ collapse might have been the most jarring. A team that had finished top seven in fewest goals allowed per game for three straight seasons suddenly ranked 19th, allowed the sixth-most shots per game and got a combined .896 SV% from Jonathan Quick and Igor Shesterkin, who couldn’t paper over their issues anymore. The Jacob Trouba trade fractured the locker room, the power play cratered and a team that had made the Eastern Conference finals in 2024 unraveled far faster than anyone expected.

After making even more offseason changes — out were Peter Laviolette, Chris Kreider and K’Andre Miller; in were Mike Sullivan and Vladislav Gavrikov — the remade Rangers must get back to their previous business.

The Boston Bruins‘ fall was even steeper by the numbers. In fact, the Bruins saw the largest year-over-year drop in goal differential of any team (minus-1.13 goals per game) after transitioning from what was once a record-breaking veteran core to the league’s eighth-youngest lineup. What was supposed to be a smooth handoff turned into a full-scale identity crisis when Boston’s seven-year streak of top-five scoring finishes snapped to the tune of a No. 26 ranking on that side of the ice in 2024-25.

Now the remaining nucleus of David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman has to prove that it, too, can carry an era of Bruins hockey the same way Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejčí, Zdeno Chara, Tuukka Rask, Torey Krug and others did in the past.

And then there were the Nashville Predators, whose 68-point season represented a staggering 31.5-point shortfall versus their preseason Vegas projection — the biggest miss in the NHL. What once looked like a loaded Preds roster with scoring, depth and Juuse Saros in net instead seemed disjointed from the start and never found success at either end.

Most of the group that was supposed to win last season is back now, and some are bouncing back nicely. Others, however, are like Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei and Filip Forsberg — from whom Nashville still needs more bang for the salary-cap bucks being spent.

The drought-enders

When the Ottawa Senators finally made the playoffs last season, for the first time since going to the 2017 Eastern Conference finals, they ended what was tied for the NHL’s seventh-longest postseason drought of all time.

However, Ottawa was not the only franchise with a playoff-less streak that long — or even longer — and its achievement just turned up the pressure on the other two teams in that category to make their own postseason returns.

First, the Buffalo Sabres: Their playoff drought is now an NHL-record 14 seasons long — four more than the second-longest in league history — and the organization is well past the territory where incremental improvements suffice anymore. The youngest current Sabre, Zach Benson, was still in kindergarten the last time Buffalo played a postseason game, and zero players on this season’s roster were in the NHL when the drought began.

After a modestly positive goal differential in 2023-24, Buffalo backslid to minus-22 last season, and that regression has seemed to carry over to 2025-26 thus far. The Sabres’ low playoff odds already don’t paint a pretty picture, but they have to prove they can end this streak one of these years.

Finally, there are the Detroit Red Wings, whose own nine-season drought is not too far off from Buffalo’s — and completely uncharacteristic for one of hockey’s most storied franchises. The “Yzer-plan” was designed to restore the glory years, but Detroit has ranked better than 24th in goal differential just once during the skid (2023-24) and gave back all of those gains last season.

The good news in Hockeytown is that the 2025-26 team has started strong, bringing its playoff odds up above a coin flip. But Detroit has been down this early-season path before, only to collapse down the stretch, so the Wings hanging on to their playoff position might be the biggest prove-it on our list.

Both clubs have stockpiled young talent and patience in equal measure, but the next step remains to end their droughts and prove the long rebuilds were worth the wait.

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