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Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at an Apple special event at Apple Park in Cupertino, California on September 7, 2022. – Apple is expected to unveil the new iPhone 14. (Photo by Brittany Hosea-Small / AFP) (Photo by BRITTANY HOSEA-SMALL/AFP via Getty Images)

Brittany Hosea-small | Afp | Getty Images

Analysts expect Apple to post its first year-over-year revenue decline since 2019’s March quarter when it reports earnings on Thursday. There are a few contributing factors.

The company couldn’t build enough of its high-end iPhones when its primary assembly facility in China was shut down for weeks during Covid lockdowns. Customers in many regions noticed as early as November that Apple couldn’t promise Christmas delivery of a new iPhone.

Apple gave a rare warning to investors that month explaining that production issues would result in lower shipments than “previously anticipated.” It was a data point that caused many analysts watching the stock to cut their estimates.

“We believe the peak impact of the disruptions was felt in early to mid November as wait times hit an extreme level (link) as the wait time in the US for the 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max reached 34 days while wait time in China at the high-end hit 36 days,” UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in January.

Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect Apple to report just over $121 billion in revenue in the December quarter, which would be a slight decline from the company’s $123.9 billion from a year ago.

But the problems aren’t Apple-specific. The PC and smartphone markets are slumping as consumers and businesses digest sales from the pandemic and cut costs to prepare for a possible recession.

The smartphone market saw an 18% decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, according to IDC, the worst decline ever recorded by the market research firm. The PC market fell 28% in the fourth quarter, according to the company. But many investors believe that Apple is outperforming its competitors even in a contracting market.

“While the state of consumer demand remains a near-term concern, we believe the underlying drivers of Apple’s model – a growing installed base and spend per user – remain intact, and that the strength/stability of Apple’s ecosystem remains undervalued,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note earlier this month.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:

  • Revenue: $121.19 billion
  • Earnings per share: $1.94 per share
  • iPhone revenue: $68.29 billion
  • iPad revenue: $7.76 billion
  • Mac revenue: $9.63 billion
  • Other products revenue: $15.26 billion
  • Services revenue: $20.67 billion

Apple’s March quarter guidance

Apple hasn’t given guidance since 2020, citing uncertainty first caused by the pandemic. However, the company usually provides a few data points that can give analysts a sense of how it’s doing.

Investors want to know whether the shortage of iPhone 14 Pro models in the December quarter will drive demand in the March quarter now that supply has improved.

Analysts expect just over $98 billion in sales in the March quarter, according to consensus estimates, signifying slight year-over-year growth.

“While we believe it’s well understood that Apple’s March quarter revenue should decline at a less-than-seasonal rate due to the pushout of iPhone demand from the December quarter to the March quarter,” Morgan Stanley’s Woodring wrote in a note last week, “the consumer electronics spending backdrop remains challenging, with tablets, PCs and more discretionary products (i.e. wearables) all facing continued demand headwinds.”

But if consumer confidence erodes in the face of higher interest rates and shrinking savings around the world, then Apple could suggest to investors that the company’s March quarter will be slow.

“While we don’t expect the resumption of detailed guidance typical of Apple earnings prior to Covid, we expect the commentary to be cautious regarding Product demand across the board,” UBS’s Vogt wrote.

If management commentary is soft, investors looking for a silver lining might want to look at Apple’s services business, which is profitable and has been growing strongly for years. However, several data points in the fourth quarter, including Apple’s own App Store payouts, suggest a significant slowdown in App Store growth, although analysts are split on its severity.

The App Store is one of the largest components of services, but it’s only a part of the business, which includes online subscriptions, warranties and search licensing fees. Apple shares could push higher if services such as Apple TV+ and Apple Music look like they’re generating a higher percentage of Apple’s revenue, D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte wrote in January.

Services are expected to total $20.67 billion in the December quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates, representing a 5.9% growth rate.

Analysts will also watch to see if the strong dollar continues to hurt Apple, given that so much of its sales are overseas. During the December quarter, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen all weakened compared to the dollar. Apple management previously said the strong dollar would be a 10 percentage point drag on sales growth.

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Apple TV+ hikes subscription for third time in three years

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Apple TV+ hikes subscription for third time in three years

Thomas Fuller | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Apple is taking a cue from some of its competitors.

The technology giant’s Apple TV+ monthly subscription is now $12.99, starting Thursday in the U.S. and other countries.

Apple said the new price will hit current subscribers 30 days after their next renewal date. The annual subscription price will not change.

For new subscribers, the $12.99 monthly price begins after a seven-day trial period.

The change marks Apple’s first price hike for its streaming service since 2023. At the time, Apple lifted its monthly price to about $9.99 from $6.99. The company raised the price in 2022 from $4.99.

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Apple TV+ is one of the company’s most popular services, but Apple does not release viewership numbers. A report from The Information earlier this year said the streaming service is losing more than $1 billion annually as subscriptions rocketed toward 45 million, citing people familiar with the matter.

Apple isn’t the only streaming company hiking prices this year to either fund new content or reap returns on their investments. Earlier this year, both Netflix and NBCUniversal’s Peacock boosted prices. Music streaming platform Spotify also raised prices in multiple markets.

Earlier this year, Apple introduced its streaming service to Android phones in a move that could open the company to more people worldwide.

The company is fresh off the release of its highest-grossing theatrical film, “F1: The Movie.”

Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.

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Trump’s Nvidia and Intel meddling is a ‘scattershot method of crony capitalism’: Walter Isaacson

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Trump's Nvidia and Intel meddling is a 'scattershot method of crony capitalism': Walter Isaacson

U.S. government's push for Intel stake is a scattershot method of crony capitalism: Walter Isaacson

President Donald Trump‘s dealings with Intel and Nvidia amount to a “scattershot method of crony capitalism,” Walter Isaacson said Thursday.

“That state capitalism often evolves into crony capitalism, where you have favored companies and industries that pay tribute to the leader, and that is a recipe for not only disaster, but just sort of a corrupt sense of messiness,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

The Tulane University professor, widely known for his recent Elon Musk biography, argued that this method won’t succeed in reviving American manufacturing.

Isaacson’s comments come as the Trump administration wades further into influencing the way companies operate in the U.S.

The White House is pushing for a stake in embattled chipmaker Intel after Trump called CEO Lip-Bu Tan “highly CONFLICTED” and said he should resign.

Earlier this month, both Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices agreed to pay 15% of their China revenues to the U.S. government for export licenses to sell certain chips there.

Isaacson said he’s always been “dubious” of public-private partnerships. He highlighted Trump’s push for Coca-Cola to use cane sugar in its namesake soda as another example of “crony capitalism.”

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Google’s Pixel 10 launch wasn’t about the phones but the strategic AI play

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Google’s Pixel 10 launch wasn't about the phones but the strategic AI play

A person holds Google Pixel 10 Pro mobile phones during the ‘Made by Google’ event, organized to introduce the latest additions to Google’s Pixel portfolio of devices, in Brooklyn, New York, U.S., August 20, 2025.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

While Google made a big splash with its Pixel 10 series of smartphones, it was the software features that were strategically important for the tech giant’s bid to compete with players like OpenAI and Perplexity in consumer AI.

As it introduced its latest devices on Wednesday, Alphabet-owned Google showed off a slew of artificial intelligence features that are powered by the firm’s Gemini AI models. “Magic Cue,” for example, can scour various apps for information and deliver it to users when required. “Camera Coach” can give users tips on how to adjust framing and other aspects of a picture for the perfect shot. Live translation for phone calls is also available.

All of this gives a glimpse into the so-called “agentic AI” future that tech giants are hoping to reach, where super-smart AI assistants can carry out complex tasks.

It is a pivotal time for Google to come up with answers, as fears mount that users and revenue from its core search product could be eroded as more people turn to rivals like Perplexity and OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Before Google lies a unique opportunity — the company develops Android, the operating system that is installed across more than three billion devices globally, many of which are smartphones.

How Android could be Google's best shot to take on OpenAI's ChatGPT

“The company is leapfrogging rivals like OpenAI and DeepSeek by leveraging its access to billions of Android users, enabling a more effective distribution, integration, and a wider range of use cases for Gemini at scale,” Neil Shah, partner at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC.

Ben Wood,  chief analyst at CCS Insight, said the smartphone is the “most pervasive consumer device on the planet” and that Google now has an “opportunity to get people hooked on Gemini.”

Google doesn’t need to sell a high volume of Pixel phones to find AI success with consumers. In fact, Pixel had just a 0.3% share of the global smartphone market in the first half of the year, compared to 23% for Samsung and 11.8% for Apple, according to the International Data Corporation.

But Google’s aim with its smartphones is to show off the best that Android has to offer in terms of software and AI. At that point, Android licensers, which include the likes of Samsung and Xiaomi, may adopt some of those features on their new handsets.

This cycle would in turn spread Google’s Gemini and AI tools to more users.

“This massive user base creates a “flywheel effect” of adoption, usage, and feedback, further solidifying Gemini’s position as a master agent on the most widely used device on the planet—the smartphone,” Shah said.

The timing is also advantageous because of struggles at rival Apple. The Cupertino giant’s lack of AI strategy has concerned investors, with the iPhone showing very few features compared to Google’s offerings.

“Google has their tails up because Apple has dropped the ball. When Apple gets AI right it will be a fantastic experience. But right now, Google and all Android licensees have a window of opportunity,” Wood said.

Yet while there is now a land grab for users between major AI players, questions still linger over how Google will eventually monetize its AI services.

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