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Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at an Apple special event at Apple Park in Cupertino, California on September 7, 2022. – Apple is expected to unveil the new iPhone 14. (Photo by Brittany Hosea-Small / AFP) (Photo by BRITTANY HOSEA-SMALL/AFP via Getty Images)

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Analysts expect Apple to post its first year-over-year revenue decline since 2019’s March quarter when it reports earnings on Thursday. There are a few contributing factors.

The company couldn’t build enough of its high-end iPhones when its primary assembly facility in China was shut down for weeks during Covid lockdowns. Customers in many regions noticed as early as November that Apple couldn’t promise Christmas delivery of a new iPhone.

Apple gave a rare warning to investors that month explaining that production issues would result in lower shipments than “previously anticipated.” It was a data point that caused many analysts watching the stock to cut their estimates.

“We believe the peak impact of the disruptions was felt in early to mid November as wait times hit an extreme level (link) as the wait time in the US for the 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max reached 34 days while wait time in China at the high-end hit 36 days,” UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in January.

Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect Apple to report just over $121 billion in revenue in the December quarter, which would be a slight decline from the company’s $123.9 billion from a year ago.

But the problems aren’t Apple-specific. The PC and smartphone markets are slumping as consumers and businesses digest sales from the pandemic and cut costs to prepare for a possible recession.

The smartphone market saw an 18% decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, according to IDC, the worst decline ever recorded by the market research firm. The PC market fell 28% in the fourth quarter, according to the company. But many investors believe that Apple is outperforming its competitors even in a contracting market.

“While the state of consumer demand remains a near-term concern, we believe the underlying drivers of Apple’s model – a growing installed base and spend per user – remain intact, and that the strength/stability of Apple’s ecosystem remains undervalued,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note earlier this month.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:

  • Revenue: $121.19 billion
  • Earnings per share: $1.94 per share
  • iPhone revenue: $68.29 billion
  • iPad revenue: $7.76 billion
  • Mac revenue: $9.63 billion
  • Other products revenue: $15.26 billion
  • Services revenue: $20.67 billion

Apple’s March quarter guidance

Apple hasn’t given guidance since 2020, citing uncertainty first caused by the pandemic. However, the company usually provides a few data points that can give analysts a sense of how it’s doing.

Investors want to know whether the shortage of iPhone 14 Pro models in the December quarter will drive demand in the March quarter now that supply has improved.

Analysts expect just over $98 billion in sales in the March quarter, according to consensus estimates, signifying slight year-over-year growth.

“While we believe it’s well understood that Apple’s March quarter revenue should decline at a less-than-seasonal rate due to the pushout of iPhone demand from the December quarter to the March quarter,” Morgan Stanley’s Woodring wrote in a note last week, “the consumer electronics spending backdrop remains challenging, with tablets, PCs and more discretionary products (i.e. wearables) all facing continued demand headwinds.”

But if consumer confidence erodes in the face of higher interest rates and shrinking savings around the world, then Apple could suggest to investors that the company’s March quarter will be slow.

“While we don’t expect the resumption of detailed guidance typical of Apple earnings prior to Covid, we expect the commentary to be cautious regarding Product demand across the board,” UBS’s Vogt wrote.

If management commentary is soft, investors looking for a silver lining might want to look at Apple’s services business, which is profitable and has been growing strongly for years. However, several data points in the fourth quarter, including Apple’s own App Store payouts, suggest a significant slowdown in App Store growth, although analysts are split on its severity.

The App Store is one of the largest components of services, but it’s only a part of the business, which includes online subscriptions, warranties and search licensing fees. Apple shares could push higher if services such as Apple TV+ and Apple Music look like they’re generating a higher percentage of Apple’s revenue, D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte wrote in January.

Services are expected to total $20.67 billion in the December quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates, representing a 5.9% growth rate.

Analysts will also watch to see if the strong dollar continues to hurt Apple, given that so much of its sales are overseas. During the December quarter, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen all weakened compared to the dollar. Apple management previously said the strong dollar would be a 10 percentage point drag on sales growth.

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Apple iPhone sales drop 19% in China as demand for Huawei smartphones soars, research says

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Apple iPhone sales drop 19% in China as demand for Huawei smartphones soars, research says

TOPSHOT – The Apple iPhone 15 series is displayed for sale at The Grove Apple retail store on release day in Los Angeles, California, on September 22, 2023. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP) (Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

Apple’s iPhone sales dropped sharply in China in the first quarter of this year as the company saw strong competition from domestic brand Huawei, according to a new report from market research firm Counterpoint Research.

Apple saw sales of its iPhones fall 19.1% in the first three months of the year, Counterpoint’s data showed, as Chinese telecommunications and consumer electronics giant Huawei saw a resurgence in its smartphone business.

The Shenzhen, China-based firm saw sales of its smartphones surge a whopping 69.7% in the first quarter, Counterpoint said.

This was thanks in no small part to the launch of Huawei’s Mate 60 smartphone, which comes with a high-end chip that supports next-generation 5G mobile connectivity.

Starting in 2019, the U.S. slapped sanctions on Huawei in an effort to stop it from accessing such technology, nearly wiping out Huawei’s smartphone business.

Now Huawei is staging a comeback. The company is the fourth-largest smartphone maker in China, according to Counterpoint’s Tuesday research note, piling the pressure on Apple, which ranks as third-biggest.

Apple shares were slightly lower in U.S. premarket trading Tuesday.

“Apple’s sales were subdued during the quarter as Huawei’s comeback has directly impacted Apple in the premium segment,” Ivan Lam, senior research analyst for Counterpoint Research, said in statement.

“Besides, the replacement demand for Apple has been slightly subdued compared to previous years.”

Lam hinted that the iPhone maker could still see a recovery in China with the possibility of new color options for its flagship devices, aggressive discounts, and new AI features expected to be presented at its upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June.

Apple CEO Tim Cook visits Vietnam — here's why

“That has the potential to move the needle significantly longer term,” he said.

China’s smartphone industry outlook

Overall, smartphone sales in China grew 1.5% year-on-year in the first three months of the year, marking the second quarter of positive growth for the industry.

Counterpoint said it anticipates low single-digit year-on-year growth for China’s smartphone market in 2024.

The firm suggested it expects AI features embedded into Chinese smartphone makers’ handsets to drive renewed demand for new mobile phones.

Chinese device makers Xiaomi and Oppo have both integrated Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 processor — which is designed for AI applications — in their latest flagship phones.

Huawei spinoff Honor, meanwhile, showed off an AI-powered eye-tracking feature in its latest flagship smartphone, the Magic 6 Pro, that allows a user to control a car using their eyes.

Chinese smartphone firms will likely start including new AI advancements in their mid-price phones in future, Counterpoint said.

Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro

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SoftBank will reportedly invest nearly $1 billion in AI push, tapping Nvidia’s chips

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SoftBank will reportedly invest nearly  billion in AI push, tapping Nvidia's chips

Signage at a SoftBank Corp. store in the Ginza district of Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023.

Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank is looking to develop a “world-class” Japanese-language-specific generative artificial intelligence model, and plans to invest $960 million in the next two years to bolster its computing facilities, according to a Nikkei report

Training of large language models (LLM), such as OpenAI’s Chat GPT, requires advanced graphics processing units, which SoftBank plans to purchase from U.S. chip giant Nvidia, the Nikkei reported Monday, citing anonymous sources. 

The investment of 150 billion yen ($960 million) will be spent in 2024 and 2025 and adds to 20 billion yen that SoftBank spent on computing infrastructure last year, the report said.

The latest investment is believed to be the largest of its kind by any Japanese company, and when completed, will likely give SoftBank the most powerful computing capabilities in the country, Nikkei added.

According to another report from Nikkei Asia, Japan lacks private companies with the high-performance supercomputers that are needed to build LLM, despite increased interest in the tech.

SoftBank’s reported investments could change this and give Japan a strong domestic player in its generative AI space at a time when international players are trying to enter the market.

SoftBank said it is shifting from 'Alibaba to AI' — here's what that means

Just last week, OpenAI opened its first office in Tokyo as part of its global expansion plans. Meanwhile, Microsoft said it would invest $2.9 billion over two years to increase its cloud computing and AI infrastructure in the country.

In fiscal year 2024, SoftBank expects to complete its first model, which will have 390 billion parameters, an indication of LLM complexity. It will also start developing a higher-performance model with 1 trillion parameters as soon as 2025, according to Nikkei.

Other local players like Japanese telecommunications company NTT have announced plans to develop an LLM this fiscal year. NTT says it will also invest 8 trillion yen ($51.7 billion) into growth areas like data centers and AI over the next five years.

According to data from Statista Market Insights, Japan’s AI market is expected to grow to around $13 billion by 2030, about 17 times larger than in 2023.

SoftBank’s stock price has trended positively as the company shifts its focus to AI, and is up by about 20% year-to-date. It is also the majority owner of the chip company Arm, which has experienced a boost in sales expectations amid the AI boom.

SoftBank is reportedly working on building AI data centers across Japan and recently joined a project to build a 65 billion yen center in Hokkaido.

Read the full report on Nikkei Asia.

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China’s ‘Netflix’ iQiyi pivots toward an aging population in an AI era

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China's 'Netflix' iQiyi pivots toward an aging population in an AI era

IQiyi, sometimes dubbed the “Netflix” of China, swung to a profit in 2023 for the first time since it listed in the U.S. in 2018.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese video streaming platform iQiyi is turning its attention to the country’s aging population, while using artificial intelligence tools to bolster content production.

One of iQiyi’s near-term goals is to improve the product offering for older users, CEO and founder Gong Yu said Tuesday at the company’s annual conference.

“It seems simple but it’s not, because in the past 10, 20 years the motto has been to serve young people, and not be traditional,” he said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

He noted how users in their 40s or older are dropping off because increased screen time is accelerating eyesight deterioration, and it’s harder for them to read small text. Gong also pointed to estimates that predict about one-fourth of China’s population will be considered elderly in 2033, rising to one-third in 2053.

China is rapidly aging as fewer people have children and lifespans increase. Births have fallen despite Beijing’s efforts in the last decade to unwind restrictions on households for one child each.

Fewer children, Gong said, means each child becomes more important. He said iQiyi would improve the quality of its content for children.

China's shrinking population: What it means for the global economy

IQiyi is also tapping artificial intelligence tools for making content production more efficient.

Liu Wenfeng, iQiyi’s chief technology officer, gave a speech at the Tuesday conference about “embracing AI.” He showed off the company’s tools for quickly imitating a multi-camera shot in a virtual environment, and described how the virtually created elements from clothes to buildings could be re-used or commercialized in a future metaverse.

Liu also said iQiyi’s AI tools can significantly reduce the time spent analyzing novels for production-worthy stories, as well as detect which parts of existing dramas bore or interest viewers.

Tuesday morning’s presentations included a clip from OpenAI’s Sora text-to-video promotional video, but iQiyi executives did not share whether they had similar technology at scale.

Instead, Liu emphasized how generative AI allows more people to be creators, and that the scarcest attribute would then be excellent creativity and superior aesthetics.

IQiyi cannot publicly share more details about its AI capabilities due to confidentiality, but creators who partner with the company can learn more, founder Gong said.

Looking ahead, he said the company would also look to tap opportunities in overseas markets as growth in China moderates.

IQiyi in late February reported it swung to a profit in 2023 for the first time since it listed in the U.S. in 2018. For nearly every year since, the company posted annual losses of $1 billion or more.

The company is next due to release quarterly results on May 16.

OpenAI unveils new text-to-video AI tool Sora

In late February, iQiyi CFO Wang Jun told CNBC in an exclusive interview he is “excited” about potential new business opportunities with the emergence of OpenAI’s text-to-video tool Sora.

He said such tools can help iQiyi tell stories more creatively, and that internally, it is exploring the text-to-video space though it is not working with Sora.

For 2023, iQiyi said its original content accounted for a record 65% of major dramas it released.

The company claims it now has more than 50 in-house studios that produce more than 200 shows a year.

The growth of in-house production reflects a bigger change in China’s film industry over the last five years, Wang said, noting that previously the majority of content was made by third parties, resulting in bidding wars for shows which raised costs.

Other major Chinese video platforms with longer-form content include Tencent Video, Alibaba-owned Youku and Bilibili.

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