Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at an Apple special event at Apple Park in Cupertino, California on September 7, 2022. – Apple is expected to unveil the new iPhone 14. (Photo by Brittany Hosea-Small / AFP) (Photo by BRITTANY HOSEA-SMALL/AFP via Getty Images)
Brittany Hosea-small | Afp | Getty Images
Analysts expect Apple to post its first year-over-year revenue decline since 2019’s March quarter when it reports earnings on Thursday. There are a few contributing factors.
The company couldn’t build enough of its high-end iPhones when its primary assembly facility in China was shut down for weeks during Covid lockdowns. Customers in many regions noticed as early as November that Apple couldn’t promise Christmas delivery of a new iPhone.
Apple gave a rare warning to investors that month explaining that production issues would result in lower shipments than “previously anticipated.” It was a data point that caused many analysts watching the stock to cut their estimates.
“We believe the peak impact of the disruptions was felt in early to mid November as wait times hit an extreme level (link) as the wait time in the US for the 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max reached 34 days while wait time in China at the high-end hit 36 days,” UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in January.
Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect Apple to report just over $121 billion in revenue in the December quarter, which would be a slight decline from the company’s $123.9 billion from a year ago.
But the problems aren’t Apple-specific. The PC and smartphone markets are slumping as consumers and businesses digest sales from the pandemic and cut costs to prepare for a possible recession.
The smartphone market saw an 18% decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, according to IDC, the worst decline ever recorded by the market research firm. The PC market fell 28% in the fourth quarter, according to the company. But many investors believe that Apple is outperforming its competitors even in a contracting market.
“While the state of consumer demand remains a near-term concern, we believe the underlying drivers of Apple’s model – a growing installed base and spend per user – remain intact, and that the strength/stability of Apple’s ecosystem remains undervalued,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note earlier this month.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:
Revenue: $121.19 billion
Earnings per share: $1.94 per share
iPhone revenue: $68.29 billion
iPad revenue: $7.76 billion
Mac revenue: $9.63 billion
Other products revenue: $15.26 billion
Services revenue: $20.67 billion
Apple’s March quarter guidance
Apple hasn’t given guidance since 2020, citing uncertainty first caused by the pandemic. However, the company usually provides a few data points that can give analysts a sense of how it’s doing.
Investors want to know whether the shortage of iPhone 14 Pro models in the December quarter will drive demand in the March quarter now that supply has improved.
Analysts expect just over $98 billion in sales in the March quarter, according to consensus estimates, signifying slight year-over-year growth.
“While we believe it’s well understood that Apple’s March quarter revenue should decline at a less-than-seasonal rate due to the pushout of iPhone demand from the December quarter to the March quarter,” Morgan Stanley’s Woodring wrote in a note last week, “the consumer electronics spending backdrop remains challenging, with tablets, PCs and more discretionary products (i.e. wearables) all facing continued demand headwinds.”
But if consumer confidence erodes in the face of higher interest rates and shrinking savings around the world, then Apple could suggest to investors that the company’s March quarter will be slow.
“While we don’t expect the resumption of detailed guidance typical of Apple earnings prior to Covid, we expect the commentary to be cautious regarding Product demand across the board,” UBS’s Vogt wrote.
If management commentary is soft, investors looking for a silver lining might want to look at Apple’s services business, which is profitable and has been growing strongly for years. However, several data points in the fourth quarter, including Apple’s own App Store payouts, suggest a significant slowdown in App Store growth, although analysts are split on its severity.
The App Store is one of the largest components of services, but it’s only a part of the business, which includes online subscriptions, warranties and search licensing fees. Apple shares could push higher if services such as Apple TV+ and Apple Music look like they’re generating a higher percentage of Apple’s revenue, D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte wrote in January.
Services are expected to total $20.67 billion in the December quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates, representing a 5.9% growth rate.
Analysts will also watch to see if the strong dollar continues to hurt Apple, given that so much of its sales are overseas. During the December quarter, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen all weakened compared to the dollar. Apple management previously said the strong dollar would be a 10 percentage point drag on sales growth.
Shares of Intuit popped about 9% on Friday, a day after the company reported quarterly results that beat analysts’ estimates and issued rosy guidance for the full year.
Intuit, which is best known for its TurboTax and QuickBooks software, said revenue in the fiscal third quarter increased 15% to $7.8 billion. Net income rose 18% to $2.82 billion, or $10.02 per share, from $2.39 billion, or $8.42 per share, a year earlier.
“This is the fastest organic growth that we have had in over a decade,” Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Thursday. “It’s really incredible growth across the platform.”
For its full fiscal year, Intuit said it expects to report revenue of $18.72 billion to $18.76 billion, up from the range of $18.16 billion to $18.35 billion it shared last quarter. Analysts were expecting $18.35 billion, according to LSEG.
“We’re redefining what’s possible with [artificial intelligence] by becoming a one-stop shop of AI-agents and AI-enabled human experts to fuel the success of consumers and small and mid-market businesses,” Goodarzi said in a release Thursday.
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Goldman Sachs analysts reiterated their buy rating on the stock and raised their price target to $860 from $750 on Thursday. The analysts said Intuit’s execution across its core growth pillars is “reinforcing confidence” in its growth profile over the long term.
The company’s AI roadmap, which includes the introduction of AI agents, will add additional upside, the analysts added.
“In our view, Intuit stands out as a rare asset straddling both consumer and business ecosystems, all while supplemented by AI-prioritization,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank also reiterated their buy rating on the stock and raised their price target to $815 from $750.
They said the company’s results were “reassuring” after a rocky two years and that they feel more confident about its ability to grow the consumer business.
“Longer term, we continue to believe Intuit presents a unique investment opportunity and we see its platform approach powering accelerated innovation with leverage, thus enabling sustained mid-teens or better EPS growth,” the analysts wrote in a Friday note.
FILE PHOTO: Apple CEO Tim Cook escorts U.S. President Donald Trump as he tours Apple’s Mac Pro manufacturing plant with in Austin, Texas, U.S., November 20, 2019.
Last week, Trump said he “had a little problem with Tim Cook,” and on Friday, he threatened to slap a 25% tariff on iPhones in a social media post.
Trump is upset with Apple’s plan to source the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. from its factory partners in India, instead of China. Cook officially confirmed this plan earlier this month during earnings.
Trump wants Apple to build iPhones for the U.S. market in the U.S. and has continued to pressure the company and Cook.
“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday.
Analysts said it would probably make more sense for Apple to eat the cost rather than move production stateside.
“In terms of profitability, it’s way better for Apple to take the hit of a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the US market than to move iPhone assembly lines back to US,” wrote Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on X.
UBS analyst David Vogt said that the potential 25% tariffs were a “jarring headline,” but that they would only be a “modest headwind” to Apple’s earnings, dropping annual earnings by 51 cents per share, versus a prior expectation of 34 cents per share under the current tariff landscape.
Experts have long held that a U.S.-made iPhone is impossible at worst and highly expensive at best.
Analysts have said that made in U.S.A. iPhones would be much more expensive, CNBC previously reported, with some estimates ranging between $1,500 to $3,500 to buy one at retail. Labor costs would certainly rise.
But it would also be logistically complicated.
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Supply chains and factories take years to build out, including installing equipment and staffing up. Parts that Apple imported to the United States for assembly might be subject to tariffs as well.
Apple started manufacturing iPhones in India in 2017 but it was only in recent years that the region was capable of building Apple’s latest devices.
“We believe the concept of Apple producing iPhones in the US is a fairy tale that is not feasible,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a note on Friday.
Other analysts were wary about predicting how Trump’s threat ultimately plays out. Apple might be able to strike a deal with the administration — despite the eroding relationship — or challenge the tariffs in court.
For now, most of Apple’s most important products are exempt from tariffs after Trump gave phones and computers a tariff waiver — even from China — in April, but Apple doesn’t know how the Trump administration’s tariffs will ultimately play out beyond June.
“We’re skeptical,” that the 25% tariff will materialize, wrote Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers.
He wrote that Apple could try to preserve its roughly 41% gross margin on iPhones by raising prices in the U.S. by between $100 or $300 per phone.
It’s unclear how Trump intends to target Apple’s India-made iPhones. Rakers wrote that the administration could put specific tariffs on phone imports from India.
Apple’s operations in India continue to expand.
Foxconn, which assembles iPhones for Apple, is building a new $1.5 billion factory in India that could do some iPhone production, the Financial Times reported Thursday.
Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp speaks during the Hill & Valley Forum at the U.S. Capitol Visitor Center Auditorium in Washington, D.C., on April 30, 2025.
The stock transactions occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday between $125.26 and $127.70 per share. Following the stock sales, Karp owned about 6.43 million shares of Palantir stock, worth about $787 million based on Thursday’s closing price.
The sales were connected to a series of automatic share sales to cover required tax withholding obligations tied to vesting restricted stock units, according to filings.
Other top executives at the Denver-based company also unloaded stock.
Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar sold about $21 million worth of Palantir stock, while co-founder and president Stephen Cohen dumped about $43.5 million in shares.
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Palantir shares have notched fresh highs in recent weeks as the company leapt above Salesforce in market value and into the top 10 most valuable U.S. tech firms.
The digital analytics company has benefited from bets on AI and a surge in government contracts as companies prioritize streamlining and President Donald Trump targets a federal overhaul with the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.
The stock has outperformed its tech peers since the start of 2025, surging nearly 62%, but investors are paying a high multiple on shares.
In its earnings report earlier this month, the company lifted its full-year guidance due to AI adoption, but shares fell on international growth concerns.
“You don’t have to buy our shares,” Karp told CNBC as shares slumped. “We’re happy. We’re going to partner with the world’s best people and we’re going to dominate. You can be along for the ride or you don’t have to be.”