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Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at an Apple special event at Apple Park in Cupertino, California on September 7, 2022. – Apple is expected to unveil the new iPhone 14. (Photo by Brittany Hosea-Small / AFP) (Photo by BRITTANY HOSEA-SMALL/AFP via Getty Images)

Brittany Hosea-small | Afp | Getty Images

Analysts expect Apple to post its first year-over-year revenue decline since 2019’s March quarter when it reports earnings on Thursday. There are a few contributing factors.

The company couldn’t build enough of its high-end iPhones when its primary assembly facility in China was shut down for weeks during Covid lockdowns. Customers in many regions noticed as early as November that Apple couldn’t promise Christmas delivery of a new iPhone.

Apple gave a rare warning to investors that month explaining that production issues would result in lower shipments than “previously anticipated.” It was a data point that caused many analysts watching the stock to cut their estimates.

“We believe the peak impact of the disruptions was felt in early to mid November as wait times hit an extreme level (link) as the wait time in the US for the 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max reached 34 days while wait time in China at the high-end hit 36 days,” UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in January.

Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect Apple to report just over $121 billion in revenue in the December quarter, which would be a slight decline from the company’s $123.9 billion from a year ago.

But the problems aren’t Apple-specific. The PC and smartphone markets are slumping as consumers and businesses digest sales from the pandemic and cut costs to prepare for a possible recession.

The smartphone market saw an 18% decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, according to IDC, the worst decline ever recorded by the market research firm. The PC market fell 28% in the fourth quarter, according to the company. But many investors believe that Apple is outperforming its competitors even in a contracting market.

“While the state of consumer demand remains a near-term concern, we believe the underlying drivers of Apple’s model – a growing installed base and spend per user – remain intact, and that the strength/stability of Apple’s ecosystem remains undervalued,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note earlier this month.

Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:

  • Revenue: $121.19 billion
  • Earnings per share: $1.94 per share
  • iPhone revenue: $68.29 billion
  • iPad revenue: $7.76 billion
  • Mac revenue: $9.63 billion
  • Other products revenue: $15.26 billion
  • Services revenue: $20.67 billion

Apple’s March quarter guidance

Apple hasn’t given guidance since 2020, citing uncertainty first caused by the pandemic. However, the company usually provides a few data points that can give analysts a sense of how it’s doing.

Investors want to know whether the shortage of iPhone 14 Pro models in the December quarter will drive demand in the March quarter now that supply has improved.

Analysts expect just over $98 billion in sales in the March quarter, according to consensus estimates, signifying slight year-over-year growth.

“While we believe it’s well understood that Apple’s March quarter revenue should decline at a less-than-seasonal rate due to the pushout of iPhone demand from the December quarter to the March quarter,” Morgan Stanley’s Woodring wrote in a note last week, “the consumer electronics spending backdrop remains challenging, with tablets, PCs and more discretionary products (i.e. wearables) all facing continued demand headwinds.”

But if consumer confidence erodes in the face of higher interest rates and shrinking savings around the world, then Apple could suggest to investors that the company’s March quarter will be slow.

“While we don’t expect the resumption of detailed guidance typical of Apple earnings prior to Covid, we expect the commentary to be cautious regarding Product demand across the board,” UBS’s Vogt wrote.

If management commentary is soft, investors looking for a silver lining might want to look at Apple’s services business, which is profitable and has been growing strongly for years. However, several data points in the fourth quarter, including Apple’s own App Store payouts, suggest a significant slowdown in App Store growth, although analysts are split on its severity.

The App Store is one of the largest components of services, but it’s only a part of the business, which includes online subscriptions, warranties and search licensing fees. Apple shares could push higher if services such as Apple TV+ and Apple Music look like they’re generating a higher percentage of Apple’s revenue, D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte wrote in January.

Services are expected to total $20.67 billion in the December quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates, representing a 5.9% growth rate.

Analysts will also watch to see if the strong dollar continues to hurt Apple, given that so much of its sales are overseas. During the December quarter, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen all weakened compared to the dollar. Apple management previously said the strong dollar would be a 10 percentage point drag on sales growth.

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iPhone 17 will drive record Apple shipments in 2025, IDC says

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iPhone 17 will drive record Apple shipments in 2025, IDC says

Apple’s latest iPhone models are shown on display at its Regent Street, London store on the launch day of the iPhone 17.

Arjun Kharpal | CNBC

Apple will hit a record level of iPhone shipments this year driven by its latest models and a resurgence in its key market of China, research firm IDC has forecast.

The company will ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, up just over 6% year-on-year, IDC forecast in a report on Tuesday. That’s more than the 236 million it sold in 2021, when the iPhone 13 was released.

Apple’s predicted surge is “thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series,” Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, said in a statement, adding that in China, “massive demand for iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance.”

Shipments are a term used by analysts to refer to the number of devices sent by a vendor to its sales channels like e-commerce partners or stores. They do not directly equate to sales but indicate the demand expected by a company for their products.

When it launched in September, investors saw the iPhone 17 series as a key set of devices for Apple, which was facing increased competition in China and questions about its artificial intelligence strategy, as Android rivals were powering on.

Apple’s shipments are expected to jump 17% year-on-year in China in the fourth quarter, IDC said, leading the research firm to forecast 3% growth in the market this year versus a previous projection of a 1% decline.

In China, local players like Huawei have been taking away market share from Apple.

IDC’s report follows on from Counterpoint Research last week which forecast Apple to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025 for the first time in 14 years.

Bloomberg reported last month that Apple could delay the release of the base model of its next device, the iPhone 18, until 2027, which would break its regular cycle of releasing all of its phones in fall each year. IDC said this could mean Apple’s shipments may drop by 4.2% next year.

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Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT

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Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT

Nurphoto | Getty Images

Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday. 

For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

The start-up, led by chief executive Dario Amodei, was also pursuing a private funding round that could value it above $300 billion, including a $15 billion combined commitment from Microsoft and Nvidia, per the report. 

It added that Anthropic has also discussed a potential IPO with major investment banks, but that sources characterized the discussions as preliminary and informal. 

If true, the news could position Anthropic in a race to market with rival ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, which is also reportedly laying the groundwork for a public offering. The potential listings would also test investors’ appetite for loss-making AI startups amid growing fears of a so-called AI bubble. 

However, an Anthropic spokesperson told the FT: “It’s fairly standard practice for companies operating at our scale and revenue level to effectively operate as if they are publicly traded companies,” adding that no decisions have been made on timing or whether to go public.

CNBC was unable to reach Anthropic and Wilson Sonsini, which has advised Anthropic for a few years, for comment. 

According to one of the FT’s sources, Anthropic has been working through internal preparations for a potential listing, though details were not provided. 

The FT report follows several notable changes at the company of late, including the hiring of former Airbnb executive Krishna Rao, who played a key role in the firm’s 2020 IPO.

CNBC also reported last month that Anthropic was recently valued to the range of $350 billion after receiving investments of up to $5 billion from Microsoft and $10 billion from Nvidia. 

In its race to overtake OpenAI in the AI space, the startup has also been expanding aggressively, recently announcing a $50 billion AI infrastructure build-out with data centers in Texas and New York, and tripling its international workforce.

According to the FT report, investors in the company are enthusiastic about Anthropic’s potential IPO, which could see it “seize the initiative” from OpenAI.

While OpenAI has been rumoured to be considering an IPO, its chief financial officer recently said the company is not pursuing a near-term listing, even as it closed a $6.6 billion share sale at a $500 billion valuation in October.

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We’re raising our CrowdStrike price target following a beat and raise quarter

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We're raising our CrowdStrike price target following a beat and raise quarter

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