“It’s a big deal for this government,” says Simon Case.

“It’s the clearest indication yet of what they plan to do between now and the general election, a translation of their manifesto.

“This is where you should expect the chancellor to say, on behalf of the government: ‘This is what we’re about’.”

As the former cabinet secretary, Mr Case was the man in charge of the civil service during the last spending review, in 2021.

On Wednesday, Rachel Reeves will unveil the Labour government’s priorities for the next three years. But it’s unclear whether it will provide all that much of an answer about what it’s really about.

Unlike the Autumn budget, when the chancellor announced her plans on where to tax and borrow to fund overall levels of spending, the spending review will set out exactly how that money is divided up between the different government departments.

Since the start of the process in December those departments have been bidding for their share of the cash – setting out their proposed budgets in a negotiation which looks set to continue right up to the wire.

This review is being conducted in an usual level of detail, with every single line of spending assessed, according to the chancellor, on whether it represents value for money and meets the government’s priorities. Budget proposals have been scrutinised by so called “challenge panels” of independent experts.

It’s clear that health and defence will be winners in this process given pre-existing commitments to prioritise the NHS – with a boost of up to £30bn expected – and to increase defence spending.

On Sunday morning, the government press release trumpeted an impressive-sounding “£86bn boost” to research and development (R&D), with the Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle sent out on the morning media round to celebrate as record levels of investment.

We’re told this increased spending on the life sciences, advanced manufacturing and defence will lead to jobs and growth across the country, with every £1 in investment set to lead to a £7 economic return.

But the headline figure is misleading. It’s not £86bn in new funding. That £86bn has been calculated by adding together all R&D investment across government for the next three years, which will reach an annual figure of £22.5bn by 2029-30. The figure for this year was already set to be £20.4bn; so while it’s a definite uplift, much of that money was already allocated.

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Peter Kyle also highlighted plans for “the most we’ve ever spent per pupil in our school system”.

I understand the schools budget is to be boosted by £4.5bn. Again, this is clearly an uplift – but over a three-year period, that equates to just £1.5bn a year (compared with an existing budget of £63.7bn). It also has to cover the cost of extending free school meals, and the promised uplift in teachers’ pay.

In any process of prioritisation there are losers as well as winners.

We already know about planned cuts to the Department of Work and Pensions – but other unprotected departments like the Home Office and the Department of Communities and Local Government are braced for a real spending squeeze.

We’ve heard dire warnings about austerity 2.0, and the impact that would have on the government’s crime and policing priorities, its promises around housing and immigration, and on the budgets for cash-strapped local councils.

The chancellor wants to make it clear to the markets she’s sticking to her fiscal rules on balancing the books for day-to-day spending.

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But the decision to loosen the rules around borrowing to fund capital investment have given her greater room to manoeuvre in funding long-term infrastructure projects.

That’s why we’ve seen her travelling around the country this week to promote the £15.6bn she’s spending on regional transport projects.

The Treasury team clearly wants to focus on promoting the generosity of these kind of investments, and we’ll hear more in the coming days.

But there’s a real risk the story of this spending review will be about the departments which have lost out – and the promises which could slip as a result.

Nigel Farage will pledge to reopen Port Talbot’s steel blast furnaces if in power in Wales, as his Reform UK party sets its sights on being the government in the Senedd next year.

In a speech in Port Talbot later, Mr Farage will outline how next year’s Welsh parliament elections will be the primary focus of his party.

The MP for Clacton has already ruled out standing at the Senedd elections next year. It is unclear who will lead the Reform party in Wales.

Reindustrialising Wales will be at the centre of his speech. Acknowledging the task at hand won’t be quick or easy, Mr Farage is also expected to suggest a return to coal mining, if suitable, as part of Reform’s “long-term ambition to reopen Port Talbot steel”.

A Reform source told Sky News: “We have said and say again that we think it’s better to use British coal for British steel than imported coal.”

Port Talbot was the largest steelmaking plant in the UK until the two blast furnaces were switched off in September 2024, which saw the loss of 2,800 jobs as part of the transition to greener production methods. Electric arc furnaces are replacing both blast furnaces and are set to be operational by early 2028.

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Wales is set to head to the polls in May next year and Reform hopes to end the 26-year Labour government reign in Wales.

The Reform source said Mr Farage’s speech “will tap into the hearts and minds of a deeply patriotic nation that feels betrayed and forgotten about by Labour”.

Recent polling by Barn Cymru saw the Labour vote share in Wales collapse to 18%, with Reform second in the polls on 25% behind Plaid Cymru on 30%, whereas the Conservatives who are currently the opposition in the Senedd are on 13%.

Reform believes the performance of their party in Scotland confirms they can win in Wales next year. The source told Sky News: “We are the main challenger to Labour in Wales. A vote for the Conservatives is a vote for Labour.”

The Israeli military will show Greta Thunberg and other activists footage of the 7 October attacks after a Gaza-bound aid boat was diverted to Israel, the country’s foreign minister has said.

Early on Monday, the Israeli foreign ministry said that the British-flagged yacht Madleen – operated by the pro-Palestinian Freedom Flotilla Coalition (FFC) – “is safely making its way to the shores of Israel”.

All passengers were safe and unharmed, the ministry added, sharing footage of the activists being handed sandwiches and water.

In a statement via his spokesperson, defence minister Israel Katz said that he has instructed the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) to screen footage of the 7 October attacks for those aboard when they arrive at Ashdod Port.

“Antisemitic Greta and her Hamas-supporting friends should see exactly what the Hamas terrorist organisation – which they came to support and act on behalf of – truly is,” he said.

“They should see the atrocities committed against women, the elderly, and children, and understand whom Israel is fighting to defend itself.”

He then added, “I commend the IDF for its swift and safe takeover” of the vessel, and said the Israeli military “will continue its just and moral fight against the Hamas murderers until their defeat, the release of all hostages, and the full restoration of Israel’s security”.

Israel’s foreign ministry said earlier that those aboard the Madleen “are expected to return to their home countries,” and that the humanitarian aid aboard the ship would be transferred to Gaza through established channels.

Ms Thunberg was “safe and in good spirits” while en route to Israel, it added, calling the vessel “the ‘selfie yacht’ of the ‘celebrities'”.

The FFC claimed the passengers on the yacht had been “kidnapped by Israeli forces” and released pre-recorded messages from them after previously saying that the “Israeli army had boarded” the vessel.

Climate campaigner Ms Thunberg, 22, was one of a dozen activists aboard the Madleen, which set sail from Sicily on 1 May on a mission aiming to break Israel’s sea blockade.

Rima Hassan, a French member of the European Parliament, who is of Palestinian descent, was also on the boat.

She has been barred from entering Israel because of her opposition to Israel’s policies towards Palestinians.

Ms Hassan wrote on X as the FFC’s yacht was allegedly surrounded by other vessels: “The crew of the Freedom Flotilla was arrested by the Israeli army in international waters around 2am.”

The diversion of the Madleen came after Mr Katz said that he had instructed the IDF to prevent the vessel from reaching the shore and to “take whatever measures necessary”.

Addressing Ms Thunberg and the other activists on Sunday, he said: “You should turn back – because you will not reach Gaza.”

Israel started allowing some basic aid into Gaza last month after a three-month total blockade aimed at pressuring Hamas and preventing the group from importing arms.

But humanitarian workers have warned of famine unless there is an end to the blockade and the 20-month war, which began after a Hamas-led assault on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, that killed more than 1,200 people.

According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, more than 54,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign.

An attempt last month by Freedom Flotilla to reach Gaza by sea failed after another of the group’s vessels was attacked by two drones while sailing in international waters off Malta.

The group blamed Israel for the attack, which damaged the front section of the ship.

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Francesca Albanese, United Nations’ special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories, also urged other boats to challenge the Gaza blockade.

She said on social media: “Madleen’s journey may have ended, but the mission isn’t over.

“Every Mediterranean port must send boats with aid & solidarity to Gaza.”