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Britain’s economic reputation has been dealt a further blow after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that this year the UK economy will fare worse than any other country in the developed world – including Russia.

In the latest update of its economic forecasts, the IMF said that it expected the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 0.6% in 2023.

To add further humiliation for the chancellor and prime minister, even as Britain’s outlook was downgraded, most other countries around the world saw their forecasts upgraded.

But the Fund said that while the broader global economy was doing better than expected, with inflation having peaked and investment beginning to turn around, the UK economy would face a downgrade “reflecting tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.”

The UK had previously been forecast to grow by 0.3% this year and 0.6% next year.

Now, said the Fund, it should expect -0.6% this year and 0.9% growth in 2024.

The comments are especially awkward for the Treasury, which has been criticised by some for its plans to raise taxes and reduce the budget deficit in coming years, resulting in an increase in costs for businesses and households, even as they continue to battle a cost of living crisis.

Up until recently, chancellor Jeremy Hunt had contextualised the UK’s relatively weak growth by pointing to the fact that the IMF’s recent forecasts projected that a third of countries were facing a recession.

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However, the Fund has now upgraded its growth projections for Italy and Germany, with the result that both will now grow more than the UK in 2023.

Indeed, Britain’s -0.6% GDP is the worst of any economy included in its latest forecast update, including Russia – which despite facing sanctions from most of the West is projected to grow by 0.3%.

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Why EY sees weaker 2023 outlook

Chancellor says UK ‘not immune’ from pressure

Mr Hunt said of the forecast: “The governor of the Bank of England recently said that any UK recession this year is likely to be shallower than previously predicted, however these figures confirm we are not immune to the pressures hitting nearly all advanced economies.

“Short-term challenges should not obscure our long-term prospects – the UK outperformed many forecasts last year, and if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, the UK is still predicted to grow faster than Germany and Japan over the coming years.”

The IMF said it now expected the global economy to expand by 2.9% in 2023.

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UK ‘could be in for first quarter contraction’

Although this is down from the 3.4% in 2022, it is nonetheless 0.2 percentage points faster than the Fund previously forecast in October.

It said: “Adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 [World Economic Outlook].

“On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible.

“On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress.”

After China’s decision to open up its economy and ditch its zero-COVID policy, the Fund upgraded its GDP projection from 4.4% to 5.2% this year.

It said the US would grow by 1.4%, rather than its previous projection of 1%.

Germany, which was previously forecast to shrink by 0.3%, is now slated to grow by 0.1%.

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Former UN chief’s labelling of Gaza war as ‘genocide’ marks extraordinary shift

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Former UN chief's labelling of Gaza war as 'genocide' marks extraordinary shift

In a stark and direct intervention, Martin Griffiths, the former UN humanitarian chief, has described the situation in Gaza as genocide.

The statement, made during an interview I conducted with Griffiths on The World, marks one of the most pointed accusations yet from a figure known to be deeply embedded in the world of international politics and diplomacy.

“I think now we’ve got to the point this is unequivocal. Of course it is genocide. Just as it is weaponising aid.

“We don’t need to look behind ourselves to see that’s the case. That should encourage us even more because we, of course, all doubted whether it would come to that level of definition.

“We all doubted whether famine is actually there. I think starvation is killing people. That’s bad enough. We don’t have to worry about famine, which is obviously there lurking in the shadows.

“Also, genocide… of course that’s what has happened. We only need to look at the statements made. Prime Minister Netanyahu has the virtue of being very clear about his objectives.”

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Ex-Israeli aide dismisses genocide claims

His choice of words is extraordinary – not just for its gravity, but because it’s Griffiths who is saying it.

A veteran diplomat with decades of experience navigating complex international crises, Griffiths is known for his calm and thoughtful demeanour – not for inflammatory language.

For him to use the term “genocide” in a television interview signals a significant shift in how some within the international system are now interpreting events on the ground in Gaza – 20 months since Israel launched its war.

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‘We carry our coffins with us’

Read more:
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The timing is also noteworthy.

Just weeks earlier, Tom Fletcher, another respected former British ambassador and current UN humanitarian chief, came close to using the phrase during a UN Security Council session.

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He said: “What more evidence do you need now? Will you act decisively to prevent genocide and to ensure respect for international humanitarian law? Or will you say instead: ‘we did all we could?'”

Whilst he stopped short, his tone showed a clear change in how leading international figures now view the direction of Israeli military operations in Gaza; staggering civilian deaths, and the statements made by Israeli officials prosecuting this war.

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In full: The World with Yalda Hakim

Griffiths’ remarks now go a step further.

It comes as the British government continues to grapple with public anger over the mounting civilian toll – and faces growing scrutiny over its continued arms exports to Israel.

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Children ‘should be treated in UK’

This latest statement by Griffiths doesn’t just reflect humanitarian concern.

As a former ambassador, he knows the weight his words carry.

And with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsening, his warning challenges Israel’s allies to ask deeply uncomfortable questions.

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Lawyers representing Israel against accusations brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice last year – accusing its actions in Gaza of amounting to genocide – called the claims “unfounded”, “absurd” and amounting to “libel”.

They went on to say Israel respected international law and had a right to defend itself.

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More than 40% of Europe slides into drought, including pockets of Greece, southern Italy and Spain

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More than 40% of Europe slides into drought, including pockets of Greece, southern Italy and Spain

Well over a third of Europe, including parts of holiday destinations like Spain, Greece and Italy, are now in drought.

March was Europe’s warmest on record – a trend driven by climate change – and also saw below average rain across large parts of the north and east of the continent.

Now 41.2% of Europe finds itself in some form of drought, according to the latest update from the EU’s European Drought Observatory, which covers 11 to 20 May.

It is most acute in pockets of south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, Greece and Albania, where the strongest “alert” category has been issued, as well as parts of Poland and Ukraine.

But broad stretches of northern and eastern Europe through France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine also drying up, sowing concerns about crop yields.

On Thursday, the UK’s Environment Agency officially declared a drought in North West England after river and reservoir levels were licked away by a dry spring.

More than 40% of Europe was in drought as of 11-20 May 2025. Pic: CEMS /  EDO
Image:
More than 40% of Europe was in drought as of 11-20 May 2025. Pic: CEMS / EDO

Heat was record high in March in Europe, while the south of the continent was much wetter than average and the north much drier. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Image:
Heat was record high in March in Europe. The image on the right shows the south of the continent was much wetter than average and the north much drier. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service

Greece tourism is ‘unsustainable’

In Greece, “overtourism” from millions flocking to its beaches adds further pressure to water supplies, said Nikitas Mylopoulos, professor of water resource management at Thessaly University.

“The tourist sector is unsustainable and there is no planning… leading to a tremendous rise in water demand in summer,” he told Sky News.

“The islands have an intense problem of drought and water scarcity.”

Islands like Santorini and Mykonos are now forced to ship in water from Athens or desalination plants to provide for showers and swimming pools. In the past, many residents could make do with local methods like rainwater harvesting.

But agriculture is a far bigger drain on the country’s water, with waste rife and policies lacking, said Prof Mylopoulos.

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‘Tropical nights’ soar in European hotspots

Wildfire season could be ‘particularly difficult’

This year’s hot and dry conditions are also fuelling the risk of yet another fierce wildfire season in Greece.

Last week civil protection minister Ioannis Kefalogiannis warned of a “particularly difficult” summer.

He said a record 18,000 firefighters have been deployed and the drone fleet almost doubled in a bid to combat fires being fuelled by a hotter climate.

Droughts and their causes are more complicated, but scientists at World Weather Attribution say global warming is exacerbating drought in some parts of the world, including around the Mediterranean.

A family of geese walk across a partially dried-out section of the bed of the Woodhead Reservoir after a prolonged period without rain, which resulted in water levels dropping, near Tintwistle, Britain, May 13, 2025. REUTERS/Phil Noble
Image:
A drought was declared in northwest England on Thursday. Pic: Reuters

They found the drought of 2022, which spread across the Northern Hemisphere, was made 20 times more likely by climate change.

The International Hydropower Association said drought and intense rain in Europe are pushing power plants to “operate at the limits of their existing equipment”.

Extreme weather costs the EU about €28.3bn (£23.8bn) in lost crops and livestock per year, according to insurance firm Howden.

Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, said: “With global warming, we expect more prolonged and intense droughts and heatwaves punctuated by more intense rainfall, possibly causing flash floods.

“In recent years, we have experienced more of these atmospheric blocks, causing record heat and persistent drought, as well as severe flooding in other locations in Europe.

“Recent months have been no different, with prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves in northern Europe and floods in southern Europe.”

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Nigeria floods: At least 117 dead as heavy flooding submerges thousands of houses

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Nigeria floods: At least 117 dead as heavy flooding submerges thousands of houses

At least 117 people have died and others are still missing after heavy flooding in Nigeria, an emergency official said.

Authorities initially said 21 people had died but this figure has today risen significantly.

Media reports quoting local government officials said a dam collapse has worsened the situation.

Ibrahim Hussaini, head of Niger State Emergency Management Agency, said some 3,000 houses were underwater in two communities.

Videos posted on social media show floodwater sweeping through neighbourhoods, with rooftops barely visible above the brown currents. One clip shows a tanker floating through a town.

A tanker is swept away by floodwaters in Mokwa, Nigeria
Image:
A tanker is swept away by floodwaters


The chairman of the Mokwa local government area suggested poor infrastructure has worsened the impact of the flooding.

Jibril Muregi has appealed to the government to start “long overdue” construction of waterways in the area under a climate resilience project.

More on Climate Change

Flooding in Niger, Nigeria
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Water appears to be flowing over a dam behind the town

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In a similar occurrence last September, torrential rains and a dam collapse in Nigeria’s northeastern Maiduguri caused severe flooding, leaving at least 30 people dead and displacing millions.

Nigeria is prone to flooding during the rainy season, which began in April – and flooding is becoming more common and extreme as the climate warms.

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Hotter air is thirstier and can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1C warmer – meaning it unleashes heavier flooding when it rains.

Violent rain, which killed hundreds of people in Nigeria during 2022, was made at least 80 times more likely and 20% more intense by climate change, analysis by World Weather Attribution found.

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