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Britain’s economic reputation has been dealt a further blow after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that this year the UK economy will fare worse than any other country in the developed world – including Russia.

In the latest update of its economic forecasts, the IMF said that it expected the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 0.6% in 2023.

To add further humiliation for the chancellor and prime minister, even as Britain’s outlook was downgraded, most other countries around the world saw their forecasts upgraded.

But the Fund said that while the broader global economy was doing better than expected, with inflation having peaked and investment beginning to turn around, the UK economy would face a downgrade “reflecting tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.”

The UK had previously been forecast to grow by 0.3% this year and 0.6% next year.

Now, said the Fund, it should expect -0.6% this year and 0.9% growth in 2024.

The comments are especially awkward for the Treasury, which has been criticised by some for its plans to raise taxes and reduce the budget deficit in coming years, resulting in an increase in costs for businesses and households, even as they continue to battle a cost of living crisis.

Up until recently, chancellor Jeremy Hunt had contextualised the UK’s relatively weak growth by pointing to the fact that the IMF’s recent forecasts projected that a third of countries were facing a recession.

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However, the Fund has now upgraded its growth projections for Italy and Germany, with the result that both will now grow more than the UK in 2023.

Indeed, Britain’s -0.6% GDP is the worst of any economy included in its latest forecast update, including Russia – which despite facing sanctions from most of the West is projected to grow by 0.3%.

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Why EY sees weaker 2023 outlook

Chancellor says UK ‘not immune’ from pressure

Mr Hunt said of the forecast: “The governor of the Bank of England recently said that any UK recession this year is likely to be shallower than previously predicted, however these figures confirm we are not immune to the pressures hitting nearly all advanced economies.

“Short-term challenges should not obscure our long-term prospects – the UK outperformed many forecasts last year, and if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, the UK is still predicted to grow faster than Germany and Japan over the coming years.”

The IMF said it now expected the global economy to expand by 2.9% in 2023.

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UK ‘could be in for first quarter contraction’

Although this is down from the 3.4% in 2022, it is nonetheless 0.2 percentage points faster than the Fund previously forecast in October.

It said: “Adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 [World Economic Outlook].

“On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible.

“On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress.”

After China’s decision to open up its economy and ditch its zero-COVID policy, the Fund upgraded its GDP projection from 4.4% to 5.2% this year.

It said the US would grow by 1.4%, rather than its previous projection of 1%.

Germany, which was previously forecast to shrink by 0.3%, is now slated to grow by 0.1%.

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Phoenix Group plots rebranding under historic Standard Life name

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Phoenix Group plots rebranding under historic Standard Life name

Phoenix Group, the FTSE-100 pensions provider, is plotting to rebrand itself using the historic Standard Life name it acquired four years ago.

Sky News has learnt that Phoenix, which has a market value of over £6.2bn, is drawing up plans to drop the current name of its listed holding company in favour of that of Standard Life, which traces its roots back to the 1820s.

City sources said an announcement was likely about the name-change in the coming months, although they insisted that a final decision had yet to be taken.

If it does go ahead, it would see the Standard Life name returning to the London Stock Exchange for the first time since Standard Life Aberdeen made the ill-advised decision to change its name to the frequently derided abrdn in 2021.

Standard Life is one of the City’s most venerable brands, and was structured as a mutual for much of its existence.

Responding to an enquiry from Sky News, a Phoenix Group spokesman said: “Our brand strategy must support our business strategy and this is kept under review.

“Standard Life is a strong brand with 200 years of history and the brand we are using to grow our business across three markets.

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“You may have seen at our recent AGM we changed our articles of association to allow us to rebrand with board approval, rather than shareholder approval.

“This board approval hasn’t happened.”

He declined to comment on the company’s future intentions.

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Pressure builds on Reeves as borrowing rises ahead of spending review

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Pressure builds on Reeves as borrowing rises ahead of spending review

The Chancellor borrowed more than expected at the start of the new tax year, piling more pressure on the public finances ahead of next month’s spending review.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed estimated net borrowing of £20.2bn in April – higher than the £17.9bn forecast by economists and the fourth highest April total on record.

That was despite a £1.7bn projected boost from employer national insurance contributions – hiked in October’s budget to help get the public finances in order and which kicked-in on 6 April.

The main reasons for the rise in borrowing included increases in public sector pay, along with higher benefits and state pensions, the ONS said.

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The data will do nothing to ease nerves over the state of the nation’s coffers amid renewed concerns Rachel Reeves may be forced to act again, in the autumn budget, to meet her own “non-negotiable” fiscal rules.

They say she must balance day-to-day spending with revenues by 2029-30, while improving public services and targeting accelerated economic growth.

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The Chancellor was forced to restore a £10bn buffer at the spring statement in March, led by planned welfare curbs, after the economy flatlined.

A further restoration of headroom may be on the cards in October, given that stronger growth in the first quarter of the year is forecast to prove elusive across the rest of 2025.

The run-up to next month’s spending review – which sets budgets for government departments – has been dominated by a political row over one of her first actions in the role, which saw universal winter fuel payments stopped.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer confirmed on Wednesday that a U-turn, of sorts, is on the cards.

The prospect of a higher bill ahead will do nothing to ease the cost of servicing government debt, with bond market investors continuing to demand a higher premium to hold UK gilts.

Their concerns include not only the forecasts for slowing growth but also persistent inflation.

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What the inflation increase means for you

One good bit of news for Ms Reeves was a downwards revision by the ONS to its government borrowing figure for the last financial year.

The total dropped by almost £4bn to £148.3bn.

The shift was explained by higher tax receipts but the sum still remained about £11bn above the updated forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, said of the ONS figures: “After years of economic instability crippling the public purse, we have taken the decisions to stabilise our public finances, which has helped deliver four interest rate cuts since August, cutting the cost of borrowing for businesses and working people.

“We’re fixing the NHS, with three million more appointments to bring waiting lists down, rebuilding Britain with our landmark planning reforms and strengthening our borders, delivering on the priorities of the country through our plan for change.”

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There is a growing school of thought that Ms Reeves will need to raise taxes in October if she is to meet her commitments, including her fiscal rules.

Lindsay James, investor strategist at wealth management firm Quilter, said: “The decision to hold off on tax rises in the spring budget increasingly looks like a temporary reprieve.

“As borrowing continues to outstrip forecasts and debt interest costs remain elevated, pressure is building on the chancellor to make tougher choices.”

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Bitcoin hits new high as investor appeal widens

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Bitcoin hits new high as investor appeal widens

Bitcoin has surged to a new all-time high – breaking through $111,000 for the first time.

It means every single person who has bought it since 2009 (and held onto it) will be sitting on a profit.

The surge follows a pretty dramatic 2025 for Bitcoin (BTC), with Donald Trump’s presidency making this digital asset even more volatile than usual.

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BTC had first managed to hit $109,000 on 20 January – the day Mr Trump was inaugurated – with investors hopeful that he would introduce a slew of pro-crypto policies.

Despite the president coming good on some of those promises, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency soon fell, amid accusations these policies didn’t go far enough.

The White House has confirmed the US will treat Bitcoin seized from criminals as an investment, but there was disappointment when it was confirmed the government would not be buying additional coins for its “strategic reserve” using taxpayers’ money.

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Bitcoin also took a battering in the immediate aftermath of Mr Trump’s controversial “Liberation Day” tariffs – slumping to lows of $75,000 in April as investors dumped riskier assets.

There are several factors behind this recent comeback, with laws designed to regulate the crypto sector now advancing through the US Senate for the first time.

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Feb: Hackers steal $1.5bn in cryptocurrency.

Interest in Bitcoin is also growing among hedge funds and financial institutions, while some companies are now in a race to buy as much of this cryptocurrency as possible.

One company called Strategy now has a war chest of 576,230 BTC worth $63bn – resulting in handsome profits of more than $23bn.

Part of BTC’s appeal lies in how it has a limited supply of 21 million coins, whereas the amount of traditional currencies in circulation often increases over time.

The latest milestone will likely contribute to a euphoric atmosphere when the president hosts a controversial dinner tomorrow for 220 of the biggest investors in $TRUMP, his very own cryptocurrency.

It also coincides with Bitcoin 2025 – the biggest crypto conference in the world – which is due to begin in Las Vegas on Tuesday – and growing financial market concerns about the size of the US government’s ballooning debt pile.

Nigel Green, chief executive of global financial advisory firm deVere Group, expects Bitcoin to set new milestones in the coming months.

“$150,000 no longer looks ambitious – it looks cautious,” he wrote in a note.

“Several forces have aligned to propel the market. A cooler-than-expected US inflation print, an easing in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, and the Moody’s downgrade of US sovereign debt have all steered investors toward alternatives to traditional fiat-based stores of value.

“Bitcoin, often likened to digital gold, is soaking up that demand.

“In a world where sovereign credibility is fraying, investors are shifting decisively into assets that can’t be diluted or manipulated. Bitcoin has become not just a speculative play, but a strategic hedge.”

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