ExxonMobil, Chevron’s big cash shows cheap gas isn’t coming back
If you want a quick outlook on whether U.S. gas prices are likely to return to pre-Covid levels, a good place to start is earnings reports from Chevron and Exxon in the last week.
The outlook: Don’t count on it. In their fourth-quarter earnings reports, both companies showed clear signs of Big Oil’s renewed focus on managing costs, widening profit margins as oil prices stayed relatively high even after coming down considerably from last year’s highs, and confidence that they will be able to keep passing the rewards back to shareholders.
On Jan. 25, Chevron announced a $75 billion share buyback, which will allow it to use excess cash flow to cut the number of shares by up to as much as 20% — over multiple years and contingent on shares also used for employee options programs and M&A rather than just earnings per share increase. Chevron also raised its dividend to about 3.4%, double that of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. On Jan. 31, Exxon announced it had spent $15.2 billion to acquire stock in 2022 – up from $155 million a year earlier, and authorized another $35 billion this year and next.
The moves are the latest page in the industry’s post-2020 playbook: To satisfy investors who pushed energy stocks down more than 40% in a rising stock market between 2014 and 2019, oil companies slowed down drilling overinvestment that had caused cash-flow losses estimated as high as $280 billion. With the conserved cash, they raised dividends and boosted stock buybacks – moves that helped oil stocks double in the year after the 2020 election, as U.S. gasoline prices rose by more than half.
Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors, which advises mutual funds on energy investing, said Chevron and Exxon are in position to increase the dividend, increase production, and buy back stock. “They are doing what mature companies do – generate a lot of cash and return it to shareholders,” he said.
Big oil sees political pushback on buybacks
Fuel prices at a Chevron gas station in Menlo Park, California, on Thursday, June 9, 2022.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The industry’s reallocation of money to shareholders from new drilling comes as political leaders, including President Joe Biden, criticize oil companies for not restraining the price of gasoline as crude oil rose from $53 when Biden took office in 2021 to $77.50 now. Exxon’s fourth-quarter profit margin of almost 14% of revenue compares to 11% a year ago.
“My message to the American energy companies is this: You should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends,” Biden said in October. “Not now. Not while a war is raging. You should be using these record-breaking profits to increase production and refining.”
The White House attacked both companies again this week after the buyback announcements.
In the market, and at the oil companies headquarters, it seems the opinions issued from the White House aren’t much of a factor in setting financial priorities. The price of oil is set on world markets, rather than by individual producers, Thummel said. The role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, in limiting production is the biggest factor in world prices. U.S. oil production, which does not have a central organization setting prices, has rebounded from a post-Covid low reached in April 2021, and reached 383 million barrels per month in October, closing in on the all-time high of 402 million in December 2019, according to U.S. government data.
Gas prices are also being hit by a loss of refining capacity. Part of this is longer-term, as refiners phased out less profitable facilities during the Covid-related demand drop, and following a wave of mergers forced by declining cash flow and share prices. And part of it stems from temporary shutdowns for maintenance made necessary by the cold wave in much of the country in December, CFRA Research analyst Stewart Glickman said.
Of the two biggest U.S. oil producers, Chevron made the more dramatic changes in the fourth quarter earnings releases, since Exxon had announced its buyback acceleration earlier, Glickman said.
The benchmark now is to spend roughly a third of operating cash flow on capital investment, a third on dividends and a third on stock buybacks. The buybacks can be dialed back if oil prices fall, and would likely be the first big cost cut oil producers would make if crude fell back to $60 a barrel from the current range about $77, he said. Buybacks, unlike dividends, aren’t treated as a “must” by investors each quarter, while cutting a dividend can lead to mass selling by investors.
Chevron is pretty close to Glickman’s recipe, with $49.6 billion of 2022 cash flow yielding $11 billion in dividend payments, $11.3 billion in share buybacks that were accelerating as the year ended to the $15 billion annual pace, and $12 billion in capital investment – enough to boost U.S. production by about 4% even as its international production dropped. Exxon made $76.8 billion in operating cash flow, invested $18 billion back into the business, spent $14.9 billion on dividends and $15.2 billion in stock purchases, according to its cash flow statement.
“What we learned from [earnings announcements] is that the industry is very committed to a conservative approach to spending,” Glickman said. “They could [drill more], but they would have to sacrifice their return thresholds, and neither they nor their shareholders are interested. I don’t blame them.”
Oil production is increasing
Despite the push to pay out more money, the companies have begun to produce slightly more oil in the U.S.
Chevron said its U.S. oil production gain was led by a double-digit increase in the Permian Basin of Texas. Exxon also said Permian production led its U.S. results, rising by nearly 90,000 barrels per day.
“Growth matters when it’s profitable,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said on the company’s earnings call on Jan. 27. Chief Financial Officer Pierre Breber said the company’s four major financial goals are dividend growth, buyback growth, capital spending and reducing debt.
Slower growth and cash distribution is the right path for an industry that is growing more slowly, Thummel said, especially since the government is prodding utilities away from relying on natural gas to make electricity and offering consumers tax credits to swap gasoline-powered cars and SUVs for electric models.
In the early part of the last decade, investors applauded energy companies for investing more than their entire operating profit in new wells, believing that hydraulic fracking would propel the sector to a new wave of growth, Glickman said. And while U.S. production more than doubled during the fracking boom, it failed to produce the expected profit. Today, politicians are trying to foster a transition away from fossil fuels, making it dicey for Big Oil to invest in large offshore drilling plans that may need decades to pay off, he added.
“Why on earth would these companies agree to play ball with that kind of attitude?” he said.
The oil companies’ new approach stands in sharp contrast to that of EV maker Tesla, which has resisted shareholder pressure to begin buying back stock as it begins taking share in a market entwined with the oil companies. Tesla has hung on to its cash flow even as it completes a major factory-building campaign that has seen it add new plants in Texas, China, and Germany to its initial production facility in California. The company also produces batteries for its vehicles in Nevada.
That path works for Tesla because it is addressing a fast-growing market for EVs, while oil companies are trying to milk the cash from their existing, low-growth businesses and invest in new ones like carbon capture before current sources of cash flow like gasoline sales begin to shrink, Glickman said. But even Tesla should be returning cash to holders after a sharp decline in shares last year, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said.
“Our view is that it’s a no-brainer that Tesla should do a buyback now,” Ives said. “Tesla is in a robust position financially and this would send an important signal. The biggest capital spending is in the rearview mirror for now.”
But Tesla’s most obvious short-term use of its $22 billion cash hoard might be preparing for any possible impact on profits of the price cuts it announced Jan. 13.
Hot on the heels of the Fiat 4×4 Grande Panda Manifesto comes another subcompact Stellantis compact with electric drive and off-road ambitions. Meet the Opel Frontera GRAVEL – which might be our best look yet at the next-generation electric Jeep Renegade coming in 2027.
Based on a lifted Frontera EV and riding on a set of bespoke, 7×16″ Borbet CWE wheels wrapped in aggressive AT tires, Opel says its all-electric Frontera GRAVEL’s emissions-free driving makes it ideally suited for “soft-roading” nature drives (their words, not mine), with a rugged, adventurous 4×4 appearance.
Those rugged, Jeep-like good looks are backed up enhanced by the usual overland accessories, including a front-mounted winch, side storage boxes at the rear, and a lattice-style roof rack. A slew of accessory lights mounted on the Thule Canyon XT carrier and hood, as well, for excellent nighttime visibility off-road and (presumably) retina-searing intensity on-road.
“The new Opel Frontera is already standout,” says Rebecca Reinermann, Vice President of Marketing for Stellantis’ Opel and Vauxhall brands. “It is rugged, practical, and perfect for families and everyday adventures. But with the Frontera GRAVEL show car, we’ve pushed the limits, imagining a tougher, more daring, trailblazing version. This concept is built to fire up our fanbase and test the demand for a bolder, more rugged Frontera in the future. It’s all about freedom, adventure, excitement and pushing boundaries.”
Like the recent Fiat concept mentioned at the top of this post, the production Frontera EV is based on Stellantis’ “Smart Car” BEV-native platform, and features a 113 hp electric motor and more than 300 km of WLTP range (about 185 miles) standard, with the “long range” version able of traveling up to 400 km (about 250 miles) between charges.
Either version comes with the “Pure Panel” digital cockpit featuring dual 10″ displays. For a few dollars quid more, the GS trim adds automatic climate control and Intelli-Seat front seats. And, if Mopar Insider has any idea what’s up, it might actually make for a decent little Jeep Renegade replacement (below).
Electric Jeep Renegade rendering
The Opel Frontera first came to our attention last October, when it became the first new EV from Stellantis to be offered with both ICE and battery power, for the same price – making EV price parity an objectively real thing.
Jeep parent company Stellantis has already confirmed that a new Jeep Renegade that’s priced below the upcoming Jeep Compass EV would be coming to the US as a 2027 model, and it’s expected to share its mechanicals with both the Frontera and Fiat’s recently teased Grande Panda Manifesto. If that does anything for you, let us know in the comments.
Opel Frontera GRAVEL gallery
SOURCES | IMAGES: Mopar Insider, Stellantis.
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Year after year, a seemingly endless raft of all-electric concept bikes wearing Honda badges have made their way across the motor show stage without ever making it onto the dealer showroom. But now, it’s here: this unmissable, cafe racer-inspired electric Honda motorcycle is the company’s first – and you can buy it!
We got our first look at this first-ever production electric motorcycle from Honda back in March, when leaked type-approval documents hinted at a 75 mph 125 cc-class motorcycle with cafe racer styling and a “WH8000D” designation first surfaced. It was clear, then, that Honda was seriously working on a for-real electric motorcycle – what wasn’t clear was when (or even if) it would ever see productions.
The wait is over
The new Honda E-VO is available in dual- or triple-battery versions that feature either 4.1 or 6.2 kWh of battery capacity. On the triple-pack version, riders can enjoy up to 170 km WMTC (about 105 miles) of riding. Recharging takes about 2.5 hours on a standard outlet or about 90 minutes on an L2 (like the Harley-Davidson backed Livewire or Vespa Elettrica electric bikes, DC fast charging is not available).
Both battery configurations drive a motor with a peak power of 15.3 kW, or about 20 hp. And, like all electric motors, all the torque is available at 0 rpm, giving the Honda E-VO in-town performance similar to much higher (than 125 cc) displacement bikes.
In addition to superior stop-and-go performance, the Honda E-VO offers riders a number of other innovative (for a motorcycle) features, including a 7-inch TFT instrument display paired with a second 7-inch TFT screen for navigation, music, tire pressure, and battery SOC information. The smaller battery pack version of the E-VO includes a front dash cam, while the larger model has both a front and rear dash cam as standard equipment.
The Honda E-VO is available in the black and off-white color schemes (shown). Prices start at 29,999 yuan, or about $4500 for the 4.1 kWh version, and 36,999 yuan (about $5100) for the 6.2 kWh triple-pack version.
Electrek’s Take
Yes, this is a Chinese-market bike built by Honda’s Chinese Wuyang venture. No, we probably won’t ever get something like this in the US, where a raucous, 113 hp 600 cc CBR600RR is somehow positioned as a “good starter bike” by cowards with 3″ wide chicken strips on their tires. That said, if the motorcycle industry as-a-whole wants to survive in North America, zippy, affordable, lightweight motorcycles are exactly what’s needed.
Here’s hoping we get something like this stateside rather sooner than later.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Wuyang Honda; via Ride Apart, the PACK.
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Westerners in-the-know look longingly at the affordable, value-packed electric cars rolling out of China – but what could you get if money was no object? If you were to spend 100,000 US American dollars on a Chinese EV, how good could these Chinese cars really get? Huawei’s 852 hp Maextro S800 is the answer.
Packing up to 852 hp and a cutting-edge technology stack developed by Huawei, Chinese luxury brand Maextro revealed its latest entry into the Mercedes-Maybach EQS and Rolls-Royce Spectre segment of ultra-luxe EVs, the S800, back in February. Now, it’s officially on sale, priced at 708,000 and 1,018,000 yuan (approx $97,500-140,000), and ready to make an entrance.
As I wrote at the car’s launch, the Maextro S800’s bespoke, purpose-built platform doesn’t share any parts with a lesser offering in the Huawei lineup in the same way a Mercedes or BMW or Volkswagen does with a Maybach, Rolls-Royce, or Bentley, respectively. And, while I admit that that may not mean much to you and me, I maintain that it might to the people shopping six- and seven-figure cars. And that might be especially true to people willing to shell out that kind of cash for a car in China’s generally lower-priced market.
That seems to be the kind of upmarket experience people of the People’s Republic want, if the S800’s two thousand initial orders (in just two days) are and indication. And, lucky for those buyers, the Maextro is set to deliver plenty in return.
The vibe is immaculate
Those well-heeled buyers will get a choice of EREV or “pure” battery electric powertrains good for between 480 and 852 all-electric horsepower. 32 ADAS sensors including both radar and lidar compliment a suite of cameras analyze the road ahead and feed data to Huawei’s ADS road perception system, which is constantly adjusting torque distribution, suspension compression and rebound, and front and rear steering to deliver a tech-driven chauffeur experience that Huawei insists is second to none.
Huawei says its robotic driver is pretty handy when the weather gets nasty, too, thanks to an advanced sensor array that helps to increase the detection distance in rain, fog, and dust by 60% compared to the benchmarked competition.
While the car is its passengers around, they’ll get to enjoy luxurious, reclining rear seats with next-level mood lighting handled by a fully independent rear passenger system that supports intelligent track lighting, gesture dimming, and a panoramic “starry sky” moonroof that includes meteor shower effects.
The Maextro S800 also offers intelligent privacy glass and a unique door-closing function are also controlled with advanced gesture controls, in case you needed reminding that China is living in the year 3000 while the US is being plunged headlong into the 1940s by a pack of pseudo-conservatives too old to realize their gold standard policies will do nothing but hurt a fiat economy that’s consistently proved out the basic hypotheses behind modern monetary theory over the last five or six decades – but that’s a lot for an EV blog.
Instead of that, let’s ooh and ahh over the Maextro S800’s ultra-luxe interior in the photo gallery, below, then keep the debate to the relative merits of one of these over, say, a Mercedes-Benz EQS in the comments.
Huawei Maextro S800 gallery
SOURCES | IMAGES: Huawei Central; CarNewsChina.
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