Europe is set to ramp up its oil war against Russia — and markets are bracing for more disruption
The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5.
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Europe is once again poised to ratchet up the pressure on Russia’s oil revenues, seeking to deplete President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest as the Kremlin’s nearly year-long onslaught in Ukraine drags on.
But some energy analysts are worried that the proposed measures could cause “significant market dislocations.”
The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5. The embargo will take effect exactly two months after the West took by far the most significant step to curtail fossil fuel export revenue funding Russia’s war.
The Group of Seven implemented a $60 price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. That came alongside the EU’s import ban on Russian seaborne crude, as well as the corresponding bans of other G-7 partners.
It is thought that the EU’s forthcoming embargo on Russian petroleum products will be both more complex and more disruptive than what has come before.
As part of the European Union’s sixth package of sanctions against Russia, adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia.
The restrictions on Russian crude oil took effect on Dec. 5, while the measures targeting Moscow’s refined petroleum products will apply from Feb. 5.
Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group warned the EU’s imminent ban “will probably have a more disruptive effect than previous EU crude-import sanctions.”
Concerns about further supply disruptions come amid talks regarding further oil price caps. The EU and its G-7 allies are reportedly considering a $100 per barrel price cap on premium Russian oil products like diesel and a $45 cap on discounted products like fuel oil and industrial lubricant oil.
The thresholds, first reported by Bloomberg last week, are also expected to take effect on Feb. 5, although the figures may change during talks between member states and the bloc’s allies.
A spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said discussions between member states were ongoing but declined to provide any further details.
“If it is introduced, it would be last minute, potentially creating more confusion in the market,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.
China and India
“We expect some disruption, especially in the immediate aftermath of the ban as EU markets continue to line up alternative supplies,” Matthew Sherwood, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC via email. “We also expect this to put upward pressure on prices for oil products more generally.”
Sherwood said the team at EIU anticipates some rerouting of flows, with Moscow sending more barrels to China, India, the Middle East and Africa, and Europe ramping up imports from India, China, the Middle East and the U.S.
This, he added, would likely increase transport costs.
Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.
Presidential Press Office | Sputnik | Reuters
Energy analysts had been skeptical about the impact of the G-7 price cap on Russian oil, particularly as Moscow had been able to reroute much of its European seaborne shipments to the likes of China, India and Turkey.
The EU urged India and China to support a price cap on Russian oil. Nonetheless, India’s oil imports were reported to have jumped to a five-month record in December as the country actively ramped up its purchases of Russian crude, while China was seen as the second largest buyer of Urals in January.
“The impact of sanctions on Russian crude exports after two months of the European Union embargo has not been as devastating as some predicted,” Stephen Brennock, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said in a research note.
His comments come shortly after Reuters reported that oil loadings from Russia’s Baltic ports were poised to jump by 50% in January from December. “Not bad for the world’s most sanctioned country,” Brennock said.
“The same fate may however not await its refined oil products,” he added. “China and India have been a lifeline for Russian crude exports given their large refining capacities. Yet this also means that they will continue to take cheap imported crude oil and process it domestically rather than buying refined oil.”
Shipping and pricing issues are key concerns when it comes to the EU’s ban on Russian oil product exports. Indeed, it is when these challenges are factored in that analysts at Eurasia Group believe the product ban could have an even bigger impact on markets than its predecessor crude embargo.
The seaborne transport of Russian oil products is thought to be more difficult because tankers must be deep cleaned when switching from carrying one fuel to another, such as from gasoline to lubricants. It also requires more vessels than the crude sector since fuel tankers are smaller than crude carriers.
“This will create logistical challenges and higher transport costs if Russia seeks to redirect product flows to Asia, as it has done with crude oil,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.
‘A shortfall seems likely’
Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously said a Western price cap on Russian oil would not affect its ability to sustain what it describes as its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
“Once the EU embargo on Russian seaborne fuel exports kicks in, we are likely to see prices for gasoline and especially diesel remain supported by tightening supply – not least if the embargo is being followed up by a $100 per barrel price cap on diesel,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a research note.
Hansen said on Jan. 27 that this proposed level was some $30 below current market levels.
“Russia may, however, struggle to offload its diesel to other buyers, with key customers in Asia being more interested in feeding their refineries with heavily discounted Russian crude, which can then be turned into fuel products selling at the prevailing global market price,” he added.
Hansen said the supply of diesel to Europe from the U.S. and the Middle East could make up some of the missing barrels from Russia, “but a shortfall seems likely.”
Tern has just unveiled a new pair of electric bikes in collaboration with Airstream, and they might be the most “on-brand” accessories an RV owner could dream of.
The two-bike collection includes special edition versions of Tern’s Vektron S10 and HSD P5I e-bikes. Those two models are already well-loved e-bikes in the urban mobility world, known for their bulletproof designs and rugged everyday rider build quality. But now they come wrapped in Airstream’s signature polished aluminum aesthetic and are purpose-built for life on the road… or more accurately, life off the road.
The new Vektron S10 Airstream by Tern is a premium folding electric bike that combines compact stowability with full-size performance. It folds down in seconds and tucks neatly into an Airstream trailer or tow vehicle.
And it’s not just a pretty new face, either. This is still a Bosch-powered, cargo-capable workhorse that can haul groceries or even a kiddo on the rear rack.
The second model, the HSD P5I Airstream by Tern, is a compact electric cargo bike that’s essentially a small pickup truck disguised as a bike. You get serious utility in a short, nimble package. It’s ideal for campsite errands, runs into town, or cruising around a rally site.
Both models use Bosch’s Performance line drive system with pedal assist up to 20 mph (32 km/h), and they tap into Tern’s impressively deep accessory ecosystem so you can spec them out with front racks, passenger seats, panniers, and more. The Vektron S10 Airstream is priced at $3,699, while the HSD P5I Airstream rolls out at $5,099.
According to Steve Boyd, Tern’s GM for North America, “folding e-bikes and compact e-cargo bikes make the perfect addition to the RV lifestyle.” And frankly, it’s hard to disagree. When you’re parked for the night, your trailer isn’t going anywhere, but your e-bike sure can. Whether you’re headed to the nearest trailhead, grocery store, or lakeside picnic spot, these e-bikes let you leave the truck behind and ride in style.
I’m always hearing from RV owners about how an e-bike – or usually a pair of them – completely changed the game for them by giving them easy mobility beyond where they can reach with their rig.
Airstream’s CMO Mollie Hansen says the company wanted to give owners a better way to explore and make memories, and this partnership with Tern fits right into that mission. The idea is to extend the sense of freedom you get from your trailer onto two wheels, and maybe even spark a little envy from the folks camped next to you.
The design of the bikes was led by The Show Design Co., and the team had plenty of direct contact with real Airstream owners during testing, including a visit to the Airstream International Rally in Sedalia, Missouri. According to company president Mike Milo, the bikes proved to be a hit. And now they’re heading to their official debut at this year’s Airstream Club International Rally in York, Pennsylvania (August 23–28), where owners will get free demos.
Electrek’s Take
This collaboration makes a lot of sense to me, and it’s almost surprising it didn’t happen sooner. Airstream and Tern are both brands with serious design chops and practical roots. Folding e-bikes and cargo e-bikes already dominate the RV world because of how easy they are to transport and how useful they are once you’re parked. Add in some Airstream polish and now you’ve got the official e-bike of campfire coffee runs and last-minute beer missions.
Of course, these aren’t budget bikes by any means, but they’re built to last. When someone tells me they want a bike that is built to haul and they don’t mind paying a bit extra for something higher quality, I always tell them to go to Tern. These bikes are just built to a higher standard, literally. I say that if you want a bike that looks like it’s built tough, get one of those ridiculous Hummer fat tire e-bikes. If you want something that’s actually built tough, you get a Tern.
Now, if they could just also build one that looks like a mini aluminum trailer for e-bikes, we’d really be in business. They’re close… Tern already has a bicycle tow kit!
Ok… now, after spending time making AI generate that image, I really want to build that thing!
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (right) and India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar enter a hall for their talks at Zinaida Morozova’s Mansion in Moscow on Aug. 21, 2025.
Alexander Zemlianichenko | Afp | Getty Images
India and Russia agreed Thursday to expand bilateral trade ties, signaling that U.S. tariff pressure on New Delhi over Russian oil purchases is unlikely to derail their partnership.
India currently faces additional tariffs of up to 50% on goods shipped to the U.S., after the Trump administration escalated tariff threats in response to its substantial imports of Russian energy.
The India-Russia relations had been among the “steadiest of the major relationships in the world after the Second World War,” Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said at a joint press conference in Moscow.
Both countries vowed to boost bilateral trade, including increasing India’s exports of pharmaceuticals, agriculture and textiles to Russia to help reduce the current imbalance, Jaishankar said.
Bilateral trade between New Delhi and Moscow reached a record $68.7 billion for the year ended March 2025, with India’s increased oil imports contributing to a $59 billion deficit.
Other plans include sending Indian workers with skills in IT, construction and engineering to help Russia address its labor shortages, Jaishankar added.
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector and Russian oil shipments to the Indian market are “making wide strides.” Both sides remain committed to implementing joint energy production projects in the Russian Far East and the Russian Arctic shelf, among other sites, he said.
“This strategic partnership … contributes to regional security and stability, which is undeniably important considering the challenging international circumstances that we are operating under,” Lavrov added.
Western governments have imposed sanctions on Moscow, arguing India’s increased imports helped bankroll Moscow’s war in Ukraine. New Delhi has pushed back, saying the U.S. administration requested the purchases to keep the markets calm, while pointing to the U.S. and European Union’s continued trade with Russia.
Russian embassy officials in New Delhi reportedly said Wednesday that oil shipments to India will continue despite U.S. pressure, adding that Moscow hoped a trilateral meeting with India and China would take place soon.
“Despite the political situation, we can predict that the same level of oil import [by India],” Roman Babushkin, the charge d’affaires at the Russian embassy in India, told a press briefing.
“Russia has been a close strategic partner of India since the 1970s and the Trump administration’s tariff threats are not going to change that,” said Daniel Balazs, a research fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“On the contrary, it might even act as a catalyst,” Balazs added, prompting New Delhi to agree to a trilateral meeting that Moscow sought to broker with China.
India was the second-largest buyer of Russian oil, importing 1.6 million barrels per day in the first half of this year, up from 50,000 bpd in 2020, though still trailing China’s 2 million bpd imports, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Washington has not placed secondary tariffs on China for its Russian oil purchases. When asked about China’s role in Russian oil purchases, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Beijing’s imports were considered to be less egregious because it had already been a major buyer even before Russia invaded Ukraine.
By contrast, Washington has escalated criticism of India in recent days, accusing the nation of profiteering from cheap Russian crude and threatening higher tariffs on Indian goods.
Ceasefire on the line
Trump’s true agenda appears to have little to do with Washington’s stated goal of curbing Moscow’s oil revenues, but extracting leverage from these trading partners, according to several geopolitical experts. These include securing a trade deal with New Delhi while pushing Putin for a ceasefire pact in Ukraine.
Last week, Trump rolled out a red carpet to greet Putin on his first visit to the U.S. in about a decade, sharing a ride with him in the presidential limousine to the venue. The meeting was held in Alaska, which was once a part of Russia.
The meeting did not appear to have produced meaningful steps toward a ceasefire in Ukraine and the Russian government has reiterated its opposition to any short-term ceasefire deal with Ukraine.
Speaking at the joint news briefing Thursday, Lavrov said he had briefed Indian officials on those talks.
“India’s approach continues to emphasize dialogue and diplomacy as essential to resolving differences,” Jaishankar said.
The storm hit. The power’s out. With all the damage around you, it looks like you might be without power for a few days (at least). But you planned for this. You have a home backup battery. What happens now?
If you’re considering a home backup battery, or you already have one and haven’t needed it yet, you might be wondering what you’re supposed to do when the inevitable happens. The good news is: you probably won’t have to do much at all.
Whether you’ve got an industry standard like the Tesla Powerwall, one of the new GM Energy Storage Bundles, or any of the other excellent home battery systems on the market, from your point of view they’ll function in pretty much the same way.
Step 1: do nothing
Modern home batteries are paired with an automatic transfer switch. That’s a switch, usually installed near your home’s electrical panel, that allows you to go from grid power, to battery, and back. And, because it’s automatic, you don’t have to do anything at all.
The instant the grid goes down, the automatic transfer switch recognizes the loss of power and automagically disconnects your house from the grid, seamlessly connecting it to your backup battery instead. Your lights stay on, the refrigerator keeps humming, and whatever else you’ve chosen to back up just keeps on keeping on. In some cases, the transition to battery power happens so smoothly that you might not even realize the neighborhood’s lost power, not noticing the neighbors’ dark windows until you step outside.
When the power comes back, that side of the switch gets energized, and it does its thing again, only in reverse – switching you back from battery to grid power and intelligently re-charging the battery in anticipation for the next blackout.
How long will my battery last?
Unfortunately, this is one of those questions that doesn’t have an easy answer. In the simplest terms, if you have a small battery and try to keep the AC running, you might run out of juice in a few hours. On the other hand, if you have great big battery and save its electrons for just the barest essentials (a few lights, a laptop, and a phone or radio, for example) you might never run out of power.
To put some numbers to that, a 31 cu. ft. Samsung RF32CG5400SRAA stainless steel refrigerator is rated at 785 kWh/year. That works out to about 2.15 kWh/day. Factor in 20-40% higher energy needs for warmer temperatures, a few daily door openings, defrost cycles, inverter losses, etc. and you’re looking at 18-22 kWh of usable battery capacity to keep that thing running for a full week on battery power. Now do that same math for every appliance you deem a “must have,” then do the “nice to haves,” and on down the line.
That doesn’t even address the other form of “last,” and whether you’re looking for a ten- or twenty- year battery solution.
What you need to do, in other words, is talk to the experts. Let them know what appliances you need to keep running, how long you want to prepare for, and let them do the math to help determine which battery solution is right for you.
I’ve included a video that covers the process of picking a solar battery from EnergySage (a trusted affiliate partner), below, and invite you to share some of your own backup battery-picking experiences in the comments.
How to pick a solar battery
Original content from Electrek.
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