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The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5.

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Europe is once again poised to ratchet up the pressure on Russia’s oil revenues, seeking to deplete President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest as the Kremlin’s nearly year-long onslaught in Ukraine drags on.

But some energy analysts are worried that the proposed measures could cause “significant market dislocations.”

The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5. The embargo will take effect exactly two months after the West took by far the most significant step to curtail fossil fuel export revenue funding Russia’s war.

The Group of Seven implemented a $60 price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. That came alongside the EU’s import ban on Russian seaborne crude, as well as the corresponding bans of other G-7 partners.

It is thought that the EU’s forthcoming embargo on Russian petroleum products will be both more complex and more disruptive than what has come before.

As part of the European Union’s sixth package of sanctions against Russia, adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia.

The restrictions on Russian crude oil took effect on Dec. 5, while the measures targeting Moscow’s refined petroleum products will apply from Feb. 5.

Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group warned the EU’s imminent ban “will probably have a more disruptive effect than previous EU crude-import sanctions.”

Russia has become a pariah state. What's next?

Concerns about further supply disruptions come amid talks regarding further oil price caps. The EU and its G-7 allies are reportedly considering a $100 per barrel price cap on premium Russian oil products like diesel and a $45 cap on discounted products like fuel oil and industrial lubricant oil.

The thresholds, first reported by Bloomberg last week, are also expected to take effect on Feb. 5, although the figures may change during talks between member states and the bloc’s allies.

A spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said discussions between member states were ongoing but declined to provide any further details.

“If it is introduced, it would be last minute, potentially creating more confusion in the market,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.

China and India

“We expect some disruption, especially in the immediate aftermath of the ban as EU markets continue to line up alternative supplies,” Matthew Sherwood, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC via email. “We also expect this to put upward pressure on prices for oil products more generally.”

Sherwood said the team at EIU anticipates some rerouting of flows, with Moscow sending more barrels to China, India, the Middle East and Africa, and Europe ramping up imports from India, China, the Middle East and the U.S.

This, he added, would likely increase transport costs.

Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.

Presidential Press Office | Sputnik | Reuters

Energy analysts had been skeptical about the impact of the G-7 price cap on Russian oil, particularly as Moscow had been able to reroute much of its European seaborne shipments to the likes of China, India and Turkey.

The EU urged India and China to support a price cap on Russian oil. Nonetheless, India’s oil imports were reported to have jumped to a five-month record in December as the country actively ramped up its purchases of Russian crude, while China was seen as the second largest buyer of Urals in January.

“The impact of sanctions on Russian crude exports after two months of the European Union embargo has not been as devastating as some predicted,” Stephen Brennock, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said in a research note.

His comments come shortly after Reuters reported that oil loadings from Russia’s Baltic ports were poised to jump by 50% in January from December. “Not bad for the world’s most sanctioned country,” Brennock said.

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“The same fate may however not await its refined oil products,” he added. “China and India have been a lifeline for Russian crude exports given their large refining capacities. Yet this also means that they will continue to take cheap imported crude oil and process it domestically rather than buying refined oil.”

Shipping and pricing issues are key concerns when it comes to the EU’s ban on Russian oil product exports. Indeed, it is when these challenges are factored in that analysts at Eurasia Group believe the product ban could have an even bigger impact on markets than its predecessor crude embargo.

The seaborne transport of Russian oil products is thought to be more difficult because tankers must be deep cleaned when switching from carrying one fuel to another, such as from gasoline to lubricants. It also requires more vessels than the crude sector since fuel tankers are smaller than crude carriers.

“This will create logistical challenges and higher transport costs if Russia seeks to redirect product flows to Asia, as it has done with crude oil,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.

‘A shortfall seems likely’

Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously said a Western price cap on Russian oil would not affect its ability to sustain what it describes as its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“Once the EU embargo on Russian seaborne fuel exports kicks in, we are likely to see prices for gasoline and especially diesel remain supported by tightening supply – not least if the embargo is being followed up by a $100 per barrel price cap on diesel,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a research note.

Hansen said on Jan. 27 that this proposed level was some $30 below current market levels.

“Russia may, however, struggle to offload its diesel to other buyers, with key customers in Asia being more interested in feeding their refineries with heavily discounted Russian crude, which can then be turned into fuel products selling at the prevailing global market price,” he added.

Hansen said the supply of diesel to Europe from the U.S. and the Middle East could make up some of the missing barrels from Russia, “but a shortfall seems likely.”

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U.S. crude oil falls below $60 a barrel to lowest since 2021 on tariff-fueled recession fears

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U.S. crude oil falls below  a barrel to lowest since 2021 on tariff-fueled recession fears

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. 

Pavel Mikheyev | Reuters

U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel on Sunday on fears President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the U.S., and maybe the world, into a recession.

Futures tied to U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell more than 3% to $59.74 on Sunday night. The move comes after back-to-back 6% declines last week. WTI is now at the lowest since April 2021.

Worries are mounting that tariffs could lead to higher prices for businesses, which could lead to a slowdown in economic activity that would ultimately hurt demand for oil.

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Oil futures, 5 years

The tariffs, which are set to take effect this week, “would likely push the U.S. and possibly global economy into recession this year,” according to JPMorgan. The firm on Thursday raised its odds of a recession this year to 60% following the tariff rollout, up from 40%.

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What EV sales slump? Illinois’ EV sales outpace the nation by 4:1

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What EV sales slump? Illinois' EV sales outpace the nation by 4:1

Fueled by incentives from the Illinois EPA and the state’s largest utility company, new EV registrations nearly quadrupled the 12% first-quarter increase in EV registrations nationally – and there are no signs the state is slowing down.

Despite the dramatic slowdown of Tesla’s US deliveries, sales of electric vehicles overall have perked up in recent months, with Illinois’ EV adoption rate well above the Q1 uptick nationally. Crain’s Chicago Business reports that the number of new EVs registered across the state totaled 9,821 January through March, compared with “just” 6,535 EVs registered in the state during the same period in 2024.

Those numbers represent more than 50% growth in EV registrations – far beyond the expected 12% first-quarter increase nationally being projected by Cox Automotive. (!)

What’s going on in Illinois?

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Illinois Governor JB Pritzker at the Chicago Auto Show; by Ray Cunningham.

While President Trump and Elmo were running for re-election, they campaigned on the threat promise of canceling the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Along with California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois’ Governor JB Pritzker made countermoves – launching a $4,000 rebate for new electric cars and up to $1,500 for the purchase of a new electric motorcycle.

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At the same time, the state’s largest utility, ComEd, launched a $90 million EV incentive program featuring a new Point of Purchase initiative to deliver instant discounts to qualifying business and public sector customers who make the switch to electric vehicles. That program has driven a surge in Class 3-6 medium duty commercial EVs, which are eligible fro $20-30,000 in utility rebates on top of federal tax credits and other incentives (Class 1-2 EVs are eligible for up to $7,500).

We covered the launch of those incentives when the program was announced at Chicago Drives Electric last year, but the message here is simple: incentives work.

SOURCES: Chicago Business, Ray Cunningham; featured image by the author.

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XCMG launches XE215EV battery swap electric excavator ahead of bauma

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XCMG launches XE215EV battery swap electric excavator ahead of bauma

The electric construction equipment experts at XCMG just released a new, 25 ton electric crawler excavator ahead of bauma 2025 – and they have their eye on the global urban construction, mine operations, and logistical material handling markets.

Powered by a high-capacity 400 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery capable of delivering up to 8 hours of continuous operation, the XE215EV electric excavator promises uninterrupted operation at a lower cost of ownership and with even less downtime than its diesel counterparts.

XCMG is delivering on part of that reduced downtime promise with the lower maintenance and easier repair needs of electric equipment, and delivering on the rest of it with lickety-quick DC fast charging that can recharge the machine’s massive battery in 1.5-2 hours … but that’s not the slick bit. The XCMG XE125EV can be powered up without leaving the job site thanks to its BYD battery swap technology.

We first covered XCMG and its battery swap technology back in January, and covered similar battery-swap tech being developed by MOOG Construction offshoot ZQUIP, as well – but while XCMG’s battery tech has been in production for several years, it’s still not widely known about in the West (even within the industry).

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XCMG showed off its latest electric equipment at the December 2024 bauma China, including an updated version of its of its 85-ton autonomous electric mining truck that features a fully cab-less design – meaning there isn’t even a place for an operator to sit, let alone operate. And that’s too bad, because what operator wouldn’t want to experience an electric truck putting down 1070 hp more than 16,000 lb-ft of torque!?

Easy in, easy out

XCMG battery swap crane; via Etrucks New Zealand.

The best part? All of the company’s heavy equipment assets – from excavators to terminal tractors to dump trucks and wheel loaders – all use the same 400 kWh BYD battery packs, Milwaukee tool style. That means an equipment fleet can utilize x number of vehicles with a fraction of the total battery capacity and material needs of other asset brands. That’s not just a smart use of limited materials, it’s a smarter use of energy.

You can check out all the XE215EV’s specs at this tear sheet, and get an in-person look at the Chinese company’s latest electric excavator this week in Munich, Germany.

SOURCE | IMAGES: XCMG.

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