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The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5.

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Europe is once again poised to ratchet up the pressure on Russia’s oil revenues, seeking to deplete President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest as the Kremlin’s nearly year-long onslaught in Ukraine drags on.

But some energy analysts are worried that the proposed measures could cause “significant market dislocations.”

The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5. The embargo will take effect exactly two months after the West took by far the most significant step to curtail fossil fuel export revenue funding Russia’s war.

The Group of Seven implemented a $60 price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. That came alongside the EU’s import ban on Russian seaborne crude, as well as the corresponding bans of other G-7 partners.

It is thought that the EU’s forthcoming embargo on Russian petroleum products will be both more complex and more disruptive than what has come before.

As part of the European Union’s sixth package of sanctions against Russia, adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia.

The restrictions on Russian crude oil took effect on Dec. 5, while the measures targeting Moscow’s refined petroleum products will apply from Feb. 5.

Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group warned the EU’s imminent ban “will probably have a more disruptive effect than previous EU crude-import sanctions.”

Russia has become a pariah state. What's next?

Concerns about further supply disruptions come amid talks regarding further oil price caps. The EU and its G-7 allies are reportedly considering a $100 per barrel price cap on premium Russian oil products like diesel and a $45 cap on discounted products like fuel oil and industrial lubricant oil.

The thresholds, first reported by Bloomberg last week, are also expected to take effect on Feb. 5, although the figures may change during talks between member states and the bloc’s allies.

A spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said discussions between member states were ongoing but declined to provide any further details.

“If it is introduced, it would be last minute, potentially creating more confusion in the market,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.

China and India

“We expect some disruption, especially in the immediate aftermath of the ban as EU markets continue to line up alternative supplies,” Matthew Sherwood, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC via email. “We also expect this to put upward pressure on prices for oil products more generally.”

Sherwood said the team at EIU anticipates some rerouting of flows, with Moscow sending more barrels to China, India, the Middle East and Africa, and Europe ramping up imports from India, China, the Middle East and the U.S.

This, he added, would likely increase transport costs.

Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.

Presidential Press Office | Sputnik | Reuters

Energy analysts had been skeptical about the impact of the G-7 price cap on Russian oil, particularly as Moscow had been able to reroute much of its European seaborne shipments to the likes of China, India and Turkey.

The EU urged India and China to support a price cap on Russian oil. Nonetheless, India’s oil imports were reported to have jumped to a five-month record in December as the country actively ramped up its purchases of Russian crude, while China was seen as the second largest buyer of Urals in January.

“The impact of sanctions on Russian crude exports after two months of the European Union embargo has not been as devastating as some predicted,” Stephen Brennock, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said in a research note.

His comments come shortly after Reuters reported that oil loadings from Russia’s Baltic ports were poised to jump by 50% in January from December. “Not bad for the world’s most sanctioned country,” Brennock said.

Croft: OPEC can come back into the market if Fed rate hikes and resilient Russian production weigh on oil prices

“The same fate may however not await its refined oil products,” he added. “China and India have been a lifeline for Russian crude exports given their large refining capacities. Yet this also means that they will continue to take cheap imported crude oil and process it domestically rather than buying refined oil.”

Shipping and pricing issues are key concerns when it comes to the EU’s ban on Russian oil product exports. Indeed, it is when these challenges are factored in that analysts at Eurasia Group believe the product ban could have an even bigger impact on markets than its predecessor crude embargo.

The seaborne transport of Russian oil products is thought to be more difficult because tankers must be deep cleaned when switching from carrying one fuel to another, such as from gasoline to lubricants. It also requires more vessels than the crude sector since fuel tankers are smaller than crude carriers.

“This will create logistical challenges and higher transport costs if Russia seeks to redirect product flows to Asia, as it has done with crude oil,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.

‘A shortfall seems likely’

Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously said a Western price cap on Russian oil would not affect its ability to sustain what it describes as its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“Once the EU embargo on Russian seaborne fuel exports kicks in, we are likely to see prices for gasoline and especially diesel remain supported by tightening supply – not least if the embargo is being followed up by a $100 per barrel price cap on diesel,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a research note.

Hansen said on Jan. 27 that this proposed level was some $30 below current market levels.

“Russia may, however, struggle to offload its diesel to other buyers, with key customers in Asia being more interested in feeding their refineries with heavily discounted Russian crude, which can then be turned into fuel products selling at the prevailing global market price,” he added.

Hansen said the supply of diesel to Europe from the U.S. and the Middle East could make up some of the missing barrels from Russia, “but a shortfall seems likely.”

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Black Friday e-bike sales from Lectric, MOD, and Aventon begin – up to $1,300 in savings with bonus deals, more

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November 1, 2024

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Black Friday e-bike sales from Lectric, MOD, and Aventon begin - up to ,300 in savings with bonus deals, more

It’s finally November and you know what that means – more and more Black Friday events! We’ve got three big e-bike brands all dropping savings this morning, led by Lectric’s Black Friday event that is taking up to $781 off its e-bike bundles, and also giving folks plenty of varying options at extra savings – 25% off accessories, discounted extra battery bundles, and even periodic Deals of the Day too – all starting from $999. The biggest news though, is MOD’s month-long event that has permanently dropped the prices across its e-bike lineup to provide affordable accessibility on top of the Black Friday discounts, with up to $1,300 in total savings starting from $1,799. Bringing up the rear is Aventon’s early savings event that offers the Pace 500.3 Cruiser e-bikes with free extra batteries for 120-mile travel at $1,599, among other models. Plus, all the other hangover Green Deals are in the links at the bottom of the page, like yesterday’s Tenways Black Friday sale and more.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

Lectric’s Black Friday sale begins with up to $781 taken off e-bike bundles from $999 and tons of bonus deals

With November’s arrival, Lectric has switched to Black Friday sales by taking up to $781 off its e-bike bundle lineup, with tons of additional accessory deals too. One noticeable stand out right off the bat is the ONE Long-Range e-bike that is getting $467 in free gear at $2,199 shipped. Normally you’d be pressed for $2,666 to get this bundle at full price, but as always, Lectric includes the savings on all the free gear (though the e-bike is maintaining its $100 price cut from earlier sales). This is the largest bundle package that we have seen on this e-bike to date, making it the best deal yet to score it for your commute, complete with a rear cargo rack, a pair of fenders, two waterproof pannier bags, and a 4L storage bag that stows away right in the frame.

It appears as though this is indeed the 2024 Lectric Black Friday sale starting well ahead of time. We can’t know for sure if the deals will get better later in the month, but considering stock can run out at any time with this brand on the popular models, you might want to jump in now.

Before we get into the e-bike itself, there’s a few additional savings options you can take advantage of during this sale. The first is a short-term “deal of the day,” that will likely change every few days throughout the month, with you able to currently get a phone mount and an e-bike bell at 40% off for $26 through the weekend. Next, you can get 25% off a selection of add-on accessories that you can browse here. Lastly, Lectric is taking 30% off its extra batteries, allowing you to double your e-bike’s mileage for farther-reaching travel more easily – with long-range models, specifically, getting a chance to add a battery to their bundle at an increased discount ($200, as opposed to $350 while buying it separately).

Lectric’s premium commuter model, the ONE Long-Range e-bike comes built with plenty of top-notch upgrades, like the Pinion auto-shifting gearbox, the carbon fiber drive belt, and the 24A potted motor controller for effortless peaking to its maximum output power. Depending on your state’s laws, you’ll be able to reach a top speed of 20 MPH to 28 MPH, with the 48V 14Ah battery powering its journey for up to 60 miles of range on a full charge. There are five PWR-supported pedal assistance levels with this model, with lag times between the system cut down thanks to the 96 magnet cadence sensors.

Don’t worry if you just want to cruise around with little effort, as there is a thumb throttle too, but our ride will also benefit from the 20-inch puncture-resistant city tires, an integrated headlight and taillight – plus, hydraulic mineral oil disc brakes, and a new color LCD display. It keeps a clean, sleek look with the hidden cable routing, and you’ll also get all the cargo-carrying support you could want with the free add-on gear that comes with the bundle, making this quite the upgrade opportunity for commuters.

Lectric Black Friday XPeak e-bikes with $781 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XP 3.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $454 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XP 3.0 Standard e-bikes with $454 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XPedition Cargo e-bikes with $455 and $406 bundles

Lectric Black Friday XP Trike with $419 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XPress 750 Commuter e-bikes with $365 bundle

Lectric Black Friday XP Lite 2.0 Long-Range e-bikes with $365 bundle

Black Friday e-bike

MOD kicks off Black Friday with massive price drops on its e-bikes at up to $1,300 off, deals from $1,799

MOD Bikes has launched its massive Black Friday e-bike sale through December 1, with some major news to start it off. As of today, the brand is making its quality e-bikes more accessible by permanently dropping the starting prices across its lineup of models, with the sale’s event then taking the savings further. My personal favorite amongst the bunch (and the latest addition to my commute – review coming soon), is the MOD Easy 3 e-bike that is now down at $2,199 shipped from its new $2,399 price tag. Permanently falling from its original $3,499 price, the changeup in its starting rate alone beats out all previous discounts we’ve seen, but now MOD is giving us even more with an additional $200 slashed off for Black Friday, landing it a new all-time low.

Coming into view with a motorcycle-inspired design, I’ve been absolutely loving my rides on MOD’s Easy 3 e-bike with its unique style and charm over other models on the market that more closely resemble mountain bikes. The 750W rear brushless geared hub motor provides steady power that peaks at 1,000W, all powered by the removable 720Wh MOD Samsung Powerpack battery that tag-teams rider support with five levels of pedal assistance (with an upgraded torque sensor over the predecessor’s cadence sensor). You’ll enjoy 28 MPH speeds for up to 50 miles with the battery at full charge, with tons of additional stock features that only heighten the experience while in the saddle.

There’s the 7-speed Shimano ALTUS derailleur, a nice upgrade from the more standard versions other e-bikes possess, with brake light functionality coming alongside the integrated LED headlight and taillight, while the dual suspension, hydraulic disc brakes, and multi-terrain tires increasing its performance ability for a comfortable ride. The features don’t stop there either, as there’s also the rear cargo rack, a much wider-than-normal saddle to accommodate differing body shapes/sizes, fenders over both wheels, a thumb throttle, a bell, and an S3 smart color display that lets you charge our devices via the USB port. It even has password security locking capabilities for added piece of mind.

There’s also the upgraded MOD Easy SideCar 3 package that is down at $3,499 shipped from its new $3,899 price tag (permanently cut from its original $4,799 MSRP). It sports a 150-pound payload capacity which is great if you want to have some joyriding fun with kids, teens, or adults who fall under the limit. There are no seatbelts though, but the company has designed it with your furry pals in mind, including dedicated D-ring anchor points to secure your dog’s leash or harness.

***Note: Remember, all of the models you see listed below just saw $900 to $1,100 in permanent price cuts and are now an additional $200 to $400 off for Black Friday. 

MOD Black Friday deals:

Black Friday e-bike

Aventon has launched its early Black Friday sale alongside the launch of its new Abound SR model, with up to $300 being taken off its e-bikes, as well as a free extra battery bundle. If you’re hoping to score the doubled mileage deal, you’ll find the free extra battery coming with the Pace 500.3 Step-Over e-bike at $1,599 shipped and its Step-Through counterpart that is also down at $1,599 shipped. Normally $1,799, whole-roster deals like these are becoming rare for this brand in our post-tariff world, with Best Buy having seen the lowest falls to $1,099 and $1,199 back at the beginning of the year in short-term sales. You’ll be getting a solid $200 off its newer going rate today, with the free extra battery bumping the total savings up to $700 – one of the best deals we’ve seen since the unfortunate economic changeup that went into effect over the summer.

There’s some additional savings available when you bundle three accessories along with your e-bike, taking 20% off their total value after doing so. You’ll find the option on any of the landing pages for the e-bikes in the accessory options box.

Aventon’s tried and true Pace 500.3 e-bikes come with either a Step-Over or Step-Through design, with both sporting 500W rear-hub motors and integrated 48V batteries. The four pedal assistance levels (eco, tour, sport, and turbo) come supported by a superior torque sensor, which is always a happy upgrade to see on affordable models, propelling you up to 28 MPH top speeds for up to 60 miles (120 miles thanks to those extra battery inclusions). This cruiser’s frame features integrated lights that even offer turn-signal functionality and an LCD smart “easy read” display that has a concealed USB port to charge your smartphone while you ride onward. That’s not all either, as it also comes stocked with hydraulic disc brakes, puncture-resistant tires, a throttle for pure electric rides, and an 8-speed Shimano derailleur.

Aventon early Black Friday deals:

Fall e-bike deals!

Black Friday e-bike

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.

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BYD sold over 500,000 vehicles for the first time in October: Is it enough to take the EV crown?

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November 1, 2024

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BYD sold over 500,000 vehicles for the first time in October: Is it enough to take the EV crown?

BYD-sales-500,000

BYD sales topped the 500,000 mark in October, its first time achieving the feat. After its fifth consecutive record sales month, will BYD take the global EV lead over Tesla this year?

BYD NEV sales top 500,000 for the first time in October

China’s largest EV maker continued its dominant run last month after selling a record 502,657 new energy vehicles (NEVs), up 20% from September.

October was BYD’s fifth straight record-breaking month for NEV sales. Many Chinese automakers report NEV sales, which include plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and all-electric (EV) models. BYD also adds commercial vehicles.

BYD sold 500,525 passenger vehicles last month, 310,912 of which were PHEVs, up 129% from last year. October was BYD’s eighth straight month with higher PHEV sales.

The other 189,614 were all-electric (EV) models, an increase of 15% from October 2023 and last month.

BYD’s Ocean (Dynasty) series accounted for 483,437 vehicles sold last month. Meanwhile, the company’s Fangcheangbao brand sold 6,026, Denza sold 10,781, and Yangwang sold 282 models.

Through October, BYD’s NEV sales reached over 3.25 million, 1.87 million of them being PHEVs. The other nearly 1.36 million were EVs, up 12% from the same period last year.

BYD-sales-500,000
BYD Dolphin (left) and Atto 3 (right) Source: BYD

Will it be enough to top Tesla in 2024?

BYD’s impressive growth is being driven by its ever-expanding lineup of vehicles. Although best known for its ultra-affordable EVs (like the $10,000 Seagull), BYD is quickly expanding into new segments like pickup trucks, luxury models, and smart electric SUVs. It’s also aggressively targeting overseas market share.

With a wave of new models hitting China’s auto market, many domestic automakers are looking overseas for growth.

BYD-sales-500,000
BYD Dolphin Mini (Seagull) launch in Brazil (Source: BYD)

BYD sold nearly 32,000 passenger cars overseas last month. With new plants opening in several key overseas regions, like Thailand, Turkey, Hungary, and Mexico, overseas sales are expected to continue rising.

Although BYD’s revenue surpassed Tesla for the first time in the third quarter, Tesla remained ahead in EV sales.

BYD-sales-500,000
BYD’s wide-reaching portfolio (Source: BYD)

BYD sold 443,426 EVs in Q3, but that was not enough to top Tesla’s 462,890 vehicles delivered last quarter.

Through the first nine months of 2024, Tesla remained ahead with 1,293,656 vehicle deliveries compared to BYD’s 1,169,579 EV sales.

With another 189,614 all-electric models sold last month, BYD’s EV sales reached 1,359,193. Tesla does not report monthly sales numbers, so we will have to wait until Q4 figures come out to determine who will be the market leader at the end of 2024.

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Tesla self-driving test driver: ‘you’re running on adrenaline the entire eight-hour shift’

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November 1, 2024

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Tesla self-driving test driver: 'you're running on adrenaline the entire eight-hour shift'

Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 10.69 barrier

A new report based on interviews with former test drivers who were part of Tesla’s internal self-driving team reveals the dangerous extremes Tesla is willing to go to test its autonomous driving technologies.

While you can make the argument that Tesla’s customers are self-driving test drivers as the automaker is deploying what it calls its “supervised self-driving” (FSD) system, the company also operates an internal fleet of testers.

We previously reported on Tesla hiring drivers all over the country to test its latest ‘FSD’ software updates.

Now, Business Insider is out with a new report after interviewing nine of those test drivers who are working on a specific project called ‘Rodeo’. They describe the project:

Test drivers said they sometimes navigated perilous scenarios, particularly those drivers on Project Rodeo’s “critical intervention” team, who say they’re trained to wait as long as possible before taking over the car’s controls. Tesla engineers say there’s a reason for this: The longer the car continues to drive itself, the more data they have to work with. Experts in self-driving tech and safety say this type of approach could speed up the software’s development but risks the safety of the test drivers and people on public roads.

One of those former test drivers described it as “a cowboy on a bull and you’re just trying to hang on as long as you can” – hence the program’s name.

Other than sometimes using a version of Tesla FSD that hasn’t been released to customers, the test drivers generally use FSD like most customers, with the main difference being that they are more frequently trying to push it to the limits.

Business Insider explains in more detail the “critical intervention team” with project Rodeo:

Critical-intervention test drivers, who are among Project Rodeo’s most experienced, let the software continue driving even after it makes a mistake. They’re trained to stage “interventions” — taking manual control of the car — only to prevent a crash, said the three critical-intervention drivers and five other drivers familiar with the team’s mission. Drivers on the team and internal documents say that cars rolled through red lights, swerved into other lanes, or failed to follow posted speed limits while FSD was engaged. The drivers said they allowed FSD to remain in control during these incidents because supervisors encouraged them to try to avoid taking over.

These are behaviors that FSD is known to do in customer vehicles, but drivers generally take over before it goes too far.

The goal of this team is to go too far.

One of the test drivers said:

“You’re pretty much running on adrenaline the entire eight-hour shift. There’s this feeling that you’re on the edge of something going seriously wrong.”

Another test driver described how Tesla FSD came within a couple of feet from hitting a cyclist:

“I vividly remember this guy jumping off his bike. He was terrified. The car lunged at him, and all I could do was stomp on the brakes.”

The team was reportedly pleased by the incident. “He told me, ‘That was perfect.’ That was exactly what they wanted me to do,” said the driver.

You can read the full Business Insider report for many more examples of the team doing very dangerous things around unsuspecting members of the public, including pedestrians and cyclists.

How does this compare to other companies developing self-driving technology?

Market leader Waymo reportedly does have a team doing similar work as Tesla’s Rodeo “critical intervention team”, but the difference is that they do the testing in closed environments with dummies.

Electrek’s Take

This appears to be a symptom of Tesla’s start-up approach of “move fast, break things”, but I don’t think it’s appropriate.

To be fair, none of the nine test drivers interviewed by BI said that they were in an accident, but they all described some very dangerous situations in which outsiders were dragged into the testing without their knowledge.

I think that’s a bad idea and ethically wrong. Elon Musk claims that Tesla is about “safety first”, but the examples in this report sound anything but safe.

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