Europe is set to ramp up its oil war against Russia — and markets are bracing for more disruption
The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5.
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Europe is once again poised to ratchet up the pressure on Russia’s oil revenues, seeking to deplete President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest as the Kremlin’s nearly year-long onslaught in Ukraine drags on.
But some energy analysts are worried that the proposed measures could cause “significant market dislocations.”
The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5. The embargo will take effect exactly two months after the West took by far the most significant step to curtail fossil fuel export revenue funding Russia’s war.
The Group of Seven implemented a $60 price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. That came alongside the EU’s import ban on Russian seaborne crude, as well as the corresponding bans of other G-7 partners.
It is thought that the EU’s forthcoming embargo on Russian petroleum products will be both more complex and more disruptive than what has come before.
As part of the European Union’s sixth package of sanctions against Russia, adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia.
The restrictions on Russian crude oil took effect on Dec. 5, while the measures targeting Moscow’s refined petroleum products will apply from Feb. 5.
Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group warned the EU’s imminent ban “will probably have a more disruptive effect than previous EU crude-import sanctions.”
Concerns about further supply disruptions come amid talks regarding further oil price caps. The EU and its G-7 allies are reportedly considering a $100 per barrel price cap on premium Russian oil products like diesel and a $45 cap on discounted products like fuel oil and industrial lubricant oil.
The thresholds, first reported by Bloomberg last week, are also expected to take effect on Feb. 5, although the figures may change during talks between member states and the bloc’s allies.
A spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said discussions between member states were ongoing but declined to provide any further details.
“If it is introduced, it would be last minute, potentially creating more confusion in the market,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.
China and India
“We expect some disruption, especially in the immediate aftermath of the ban as EU markets continue to line up alternative supplies,” Matthew Sherwood, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC via email. “We also expect this to put upward pressure on prices for oil products more generally.”
Sherwood said the team at EIU anticipates some rerouting of flows, with Moscow sending more barrels to China, India, the Middle East and Africa, and Europe ramping up imports from India, China, the Middle East and the U.S.
This, he added, would likely increase transport costs.
Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.
Presidential Press Office | Sputnik | Reuters
Energy analysts had been skeptical about the impact of the G-7 price cap on Russian oil, particularly as Moscow had been able to reroute much of its European seaborne shipments to the likes of China, India and Turkey.
The EU urged India and China to support a price cap on Russian oil. Nonetheless, India’s oil imports were reported to have jumped to a five-month record in December as the country actively ramped up its purchases of Russian crude, while China was seen as the second largest buyer of Urals in January.
“The impact of sanctions on Russian crude exports after two months of the European Union embargo has not been as devastating as some predicted,” Stephen Brennock, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said in a research note.
His comments come shortly after Reuters reported that oil loadings from Russia’s Baltic ports were poised to jump by 50% in January from December. “Not bad for the world’s most sanctioned country,” Brennock said.
“The same fate may however not await its refined oil products,” he added. “China and India have been a lifeline for Russian crude exports given their large refining capacities. Yet this also means that they will continue to take cheap imported crude oil and process it domestically rather than buying refined oil.”
Shipping and pricing issues are key concerns when it comes to the EU’s ban on Russian oil product exports. Indeed, it is when these challenges are factored in that analysts at Eurasia Group believe the product ban could have an even bigger impact on markets than its predecessor crude embargo.
The seaborne transport of Russian oil products is thought to be more difficult because tankers must be deep cleaned when switching from carrying one fuel to another, such as from gasoline to lubricants. It also requires more vessels than the crude sector since fuel tankers are smaller than crude carriers.
“This will create logistical challenges and higher transport costs if Russia seeks to redirect product flows to Asia, as it has done with crude oil,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.
‘A shortfall seems likely’
Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously said a Western price cap on Russian oil would not affect its ability to sustain what it describes as its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
“Once the EU embargo on Russian seaborne fuel exports kicks in, we are likely to see prices for gasoline and especially diesel remain supported by tightening supply – not least if the embargo is being followed up by a $100 per barrel price cap on diesel,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a research note.
Hansen said on Jan. 27 that this proposed level was some $30 below current market levels.
“Russia may, however, struggle to offload its diesel to other buyers, with key customers in Asia being more interested in feeding their refineries with heavily discounted Russian crude, which can then be turned into fuel products selling at the prevailing global market price,” he added.
Hansen said the supply of diesel to Europe from the U.S. and the Middle East could make up some of the missing barrels from Russia, “but a shortfall seems likely.”
Trump’s tariffs are about to drive up the cost of clean energy projects in the US, and energy storage is set to take the biggest hit, according to new analysis from Wood Mackenzie.
In its latest report, “All aboard the tariff coaster: implications for the US power industry,” Wood Mackenzie lays out what the power sector could be in for as new tariffs raise costs across the board. The biggest tariff hit will be on utility-scale energy storage, where US projects still overwhelmingly rely on imported battery cells from China.
“In a business with 5-to-10-year planning cycles, not knowing what a project will cost next year or the year after is disruptive and causes massive uncertainty,” said Chris Seiple, vice chairman of power and renewables at Wood Mackenzie. “We will definitely see impacts on power sector capital projects. The severity depends on what scenarios play out.”
The firm modeled two scenarios: one where tariffs settle at an effective rate of 10% by 2026, and a more extreme “trade war” scenario where that rate climbs to 30% and stays there through 2030. Either way, energy storage takes a big hit.
Wood Mackenzie estimates energy storage project costs could rise from 12% to over 50%, depending on the scenario. That’s because, in 2024, nearly all utility-scale battery cells used in the US came from China. And the domestic supply is nowhere near ready to take over.
“While US battery cell manufacturing capacity is expanding, it is not expanding at a pace nearly fast enough to meet even a small fraction of battery projects in the US,” Seiple said. “In 2025, we estimate there is sufficient domestic manufacturing capacity to only meet about 6% of demand, and by 2030, domestic manufacturing could potentially meet 40% of demand.”
The solar sector is getting a rough deal, too. With existing tariffs and tough interconnection rules already making solar builds more expensive in the US, new tariffs would pile on. Wood Mackenzie says utility-scale solar could end up 54% more expensive than in Europe, and a staggering 85% pricier than new solar plants in China.
“An increase in tariff levels will only worsen this premium US energy consumers need to pay to access renewable energy,” Seiple said.
Wood Mac’s bottom line: Current trade policies are making clean energy more expensive to build in the US than almost anywhere else, and the industry will have to brace for more uncertainty and higher costs ahead.
Read more: Audi may build EVs in the US to dodge Trump’s new tariffs
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Acura isn’t really known as a luxury EV brand, but with over $20,000 in discounts, it’s hard to say no. Honda’s Acura is quietly selling more EVs in the US, but how long will the savings last?
Acura is selling more EVs in the US with big discounts
After selling an additional 1,873 ZDX models last month, Acura has now sold over 9,000 electric vehicles (EVs) in the US through May.
Although it may not seem like much compared to some, like Tesla, Acura just launched the ZDX in the US in May 2024.
The ZDX nearly outsold Honda’s electric SUV in the month of May. Honda sold 2,110 Prologues last month, up from 612 units sold the previous year. The Prologue quickly became a top-selling EV in the US last year, with over 33,000 models sold. Through May, Honda has sold over 13,500 electric SUVs.
To give you a better idea, Cadillac sold 4,300 Lyriqs (which is built on the same platform) in the first quarter. Acura sold 4,813 ZDX models during the same period. Through May, Acura has sold a total of 9,017 EVs in the US.
After setting a new sales record in March wth 1,935 units, Acura topped it in April, selling another 2,331 ZDX models.
ZDX sales are significantly higher than the automaker had projected in February. Mike Langel, vice president of national sales for Acura, told Automotive News that the company expected to sell around 1,000 ZDX models a month this year.
Langley added, “We can only drive the market so much by incentives, and that’s where we have to remain flexible in our approach.”
Acura is currently offering nearly $30,000 in lease cash on the 2024 ZDX in some states, making it even more affordable than a Honda CR-V Hybrid. Through June 30, Acura is offering leases as low as $299 for 24 months with $2,999 due at signing.
Honda introduced new incentives on the 2025 Prologue last month, enabling up to $16,500 in savings. If you can find one, Honda is still offering leases as low as $239 for 36 months with $1,399 due at signing. The offer is available in California and other ZEV states.
Trump’s new “Big, Beautiful Bill” will kill off many of the incentives, including the $7,500 EV tax credit. Under the bill, many of these savings will disappear.
Looking to score some savings while they are still here? We’re here to help you get started. You can use our links below to find deals on the Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX in your area.
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WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES – MAY 30: United States President Donald Trump departs at the White House to U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania in Washington D.C May 30, 2025.
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President Donald Trump‘s new dollar-pegged stablecoin is off to a sluggish start, with muted inflows and little organic demand, new data shows.
The USD1 token — launched by Trump’s decentralized finance firm, World Liberty Financial — has so far failed to break out of a narrow speculative niche, according to Kaiko analyst Adam Morgan McCarthy.
“Trump is trying to launch this stablecoin in a massive, growing market that’s a quarter of a billion dollars in size already, and his token’s only really been successful so far on a niche market of a niche market,” McCarthy said. “It hasn’t managed to make the leap from decentralized staging platforms like PancakeSwap into centralized venues that serve the mass market.”
The U.S. dollar-backed USD1 saw a burst of activity on PancakeSwap, a decentralized exchange built on Binance’s smart chain, with average daily on-chain volumes topping $14 million following its listing on Binance May 22, according to new research from Kaiko. Volume on Binance itself has lagged at $8 million.
The coin’s limited reach is compounded by a lack of real users.
Kaiko’s data confirms that more than half of USD1’s liquidity on PancakeSwap comes from just three wallets — a level of concentration that raises questions about where actual demand is coming from.
“These were the market making wallets, so they’re probably tied to USD1 and the World Liberty Financial team, so not actually an organic volume,” added McCarthy.
Donald Trump Jr. told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday that USD1 is a strategic asset, not just for the family, but for U.S. monetary policy.
“I think the stablecoins are actually going to be the savior of dollar hegemony in the world, not a detractor from it,” he said, pointing to companies like Tether, which rank among the world’s largest holders of U.S. Treasurys.
But unlike stablecoin giants like Tether and Circle, USD1 has yet to demonstrate broad-based adoption. Ripple’s new RLUSD token, for example, has averaged around $50 million in daily centralized exchange volume — far outpacing USD1, which remains thinly traded.
According to Kaiko analysts, one major reason that USD1 lags rivals is the absence of institutional partners or promotional incentives that typically generate early traction in the stablecoin market.
Beyond its stablecoin, World Liberty separately launched its own native token called WLFI, which also had a tepid debut but ultimately raised at least $550 million through token sales. World Liberty funnels 75% of profits to family-related entities.
The $TRUMP coin’s failure to generate meaningful traction on Binance is particularly notable, given the family’s ties to the Abu Dhabi–based MGX fund, which used USD1 for a $2 billion investment in March.
Kaiko’s McCarthy told CNBC that this kind of deal would typically boost visibility and volume — especially if paired with incentives like trading fee discounts or promotional listings.
“But with USD1, nothing’s happened with that,” McCarthy said. “It hasn’t caused any sort of velocity of the asset on-chain.”
The Trump family’s crypto ventures continue to draw scrutiny, with the $TRUMP meme token recently holding a contest for top holders to get a “special VIP tour” and have dinner with the president.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., described the winner’s dinner as “an orgy of corruption” and accused the president of using the presidency “to make himself richer through crypto.”
More than $5.2 billion in realized gains in the $TRUMP coin flowed to the top wallets, according to Inca Digital, while over 590,000 collectively lost $3.9 billion.
The gap between winners and losers has raised concerns about wealth concentration and retail trader exploitation — dynamics that critics say mirror the very financial system that crypto is trying to disrupt.
WATCH: Trump Media’s bitcoin bet expands family’s growing crypto empire
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