Connect with us

Published

on

The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Europe is once again poised to ratchet up the pressure on Russia’s oil revenues, seeking to deplete President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest as the Kremlin’s nearly year-long onslaught in Ukraine drags on.

But some energy analysts are worried that the proposed measures could cause “significant market dislocations.”

The European Union’s ban on Russian oil product exports is slated to kick in on Feb. 5. The embargo will take effect exactly two months after the West took by far the most significant step to curtail fossil fuel export revenue funding Russia’s war.

The Group of Seven implemented a $60 price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. That came alongside the EU’s import ban on Russian seaborne crude, as well as the corresponding bans of other G-7 partners.

It is thought that the EU’s forthcoming embargo on Russian petroleum products will be both more complex and more disruptive than what has come before.

As part of the European Union’s sixth package of sanctions against Russia, adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia.

The restrictions on Russian crude oil took effect on Dec. 5, while the measures targeting Moscow’s refined petroleum products will apply from Feb. 5.

Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group warned the EU’s imminent ban “will probably have a more disruptive effect than previous EU crude-import sanctions.”

Russia has become a pariah state. What's next?

Concerns about further supply disruptions come amid talks regarding further oil price caps. The EU and its G-7 allies are reportedly considering a $100 per barrel price cap on premium Russian oil products like diesel and a $45 cap on discounted products like fuel oil and industrial lubricant oil.

The thresholds, first reported by Bloomberg last week, are also expected to take effect on Feb. 5, although the figures may change during talks between member states and the bloc’s allies.

A spokesperson for the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said discussions between member states were ongoing but declined to provide any further details.

“If it is introduced, it would be last minute, potentially creating more confusion in the market,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.

China and India

“We expect some disruption, especially in the immediate aftermath of the ban as EU markets continue to line up alternative supplies,” Matthew Sherwood, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC via email. “We also expect this to put upward pressure on prices for oil products more generally.”

Sherwood said the team at EIU anticipates some rerouting of flows, with Moscow sending more barrels to China, India, the Middle East and Africa, and Europe ramping up imports from India, China, the Middle East and the U.S.

This, he added, would likely increase transport costs.

Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.

Presidential Press Office | Sputnik | Reuters

Energy analysts had been skeptical about the impact of the G-7 price cap on Russian oil, particularly as Moscow had been able to reroute much of its European seaborne shipments to the likes of China, India and Turkey.

The EU urged India and China to support a price cap on Russian oil. Nonetheless, India’s oil imports were reported to have jumped to a five-month record in December as the country actively ramped up its purchases of Russian crude, while China was seen as the second largest buyer of Urals in January.

“The impact of sanctions on Russian crude exports after two months of the European Union embargo has not been as devastating as some predicted,” Stephen Brennock, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said in a research note.

His comments come shortly after Reuters reported that oil loadings from Russia’s Baltic ports were poised to jump by 50% in January from December. “Not bad for the world’s most sanctioned country,” Brennock said.

Croft: OPEC can come back into the market if Fed rate hikes and resilient Russian production weigh on oil prices

“The same fate may however not await its refined oil products,” he added. “China and India have been a lifeline for Russian crude exports given their large refining capacities. Yet this also means that they will continue to take cheap imported crude oil and process it domestically rather than buying refined oil.”

Shipping and pricing issues are key concerns when it comes to the EU’s ban on Russian oil product exports. Indeed, it is when these challenges are factored in that analysts at Eurasia Group believe the product ban could have an even bigger impact on markets than its predecessor crude embargo.

The seaborne transport of Russian oil products is thought to be more difficult because tankers must be deep cleaned when switching from carrying one fuel to another, such as from gasoline to lubricants. It also requires more vessels than the crude sector since fuel tankers are smaller than crude carriers.

“This will create logistical challenges and higher transport costs if Russia seeks to redirect product flows to Asia, as it has done with crude oil,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.

‘A shortfall seems likely’

Russia retaliated against the Western measures implemented in late 2022 by banning oil sales to countries that abide by the price cap.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously said a Western price cap on Russian oil would not affect its ability to sustain what it describes as its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“Once the EU embargo on Russian seaborne fuel exports kicks in, we are likely to see prices for gasoline and especially diesel remain supported by tightening supply – not least if the embargo is being followed up by a $100 per barrel price cap on diesel,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a research note.

Hansen said on Jan. 27 that this proposed level was some $30 below current market levels.

“Russia may, however, struggle to offload its diesel to other buyers, with key customers in Asia being more interested in feeding their refineries with heavily discounted Russian crude, which can then be turned into fuel products selling at the prevailing global market price,” he added.

Hansen said the supply of diesel to Europe from the U.S. and the Middle East could make up some of the missing barrels from Russia, “but a shortfall seems likely.”

Continue Reading

Environment

Solar executives warn that Trump attack on renewables will lead to power crunch that spikes electricity prices

Published

on

By

Solar executives warn that Trump attack on renewables will lead to power crunch that spikes electricity prices

Witthaya Prasongsin | Moment | Getty Images

President Donald Trump‘s attack on solar and wind projects threatens to raise energy prices for consumers and undermine a stretched electric grid that’s already straining to meet rapidly growing demand, renewable energy executives warn.

Trump has long said wind power turbines are unattractive and endanger birds, and that solar installations take up too much land. This week, he said his administration will not approve solar and wind projects, the latest salvo in a campaign the president has waged against the renewable energy industry since taking office.

“We will not approve wind or farmer destroying Solar,” Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday. “The days of stupidity are over in the USA!!!”

Trump’s statement this week seemed to confirm industry fears that the Interior Department will block federal permits for solar and wind projects. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum took control of all permit approvals last month in a move that the American Clean Power Association criticized as “obstruction,” calling it “unprecedented political review.”

The Interior Department blocking permits would slow the growth of the entire solar and wind industry, top executives at renewable developers Arevon, Avantus and Engie North America told CNBC.

Even solar and wind projects on private land may need approvals from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service if, for example, a waterway or animal species is affected, the executives told CNBC. The three power companies are among the top 10 renewable developers in the U.S., according to energy research firm Enverus.

The Interior Department “will not give preferential treatment to massive, unreliable projects that make no sense for the American people or that risk harming communities or the environment,” a spokesperson told CNBC when asked if new permits would be issued for solar and wind construction.

Choking off renewables will worsen a looming power supply shortage, harm the electric grid and lead to higher electricity prices for consumers, said Kevin Smith, CEO of Arevon, a solar and battery storage developer headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, that’s active in 17 states. Arevon operates five gigawatts of power equivalent to $10 billion of capital investment.

“I don’t think everybody realizes how big the crunch is going to be,” Smith said. “We’re making that crunch more and more difficult with these policy changes.”

Uncertainty hits investment

The red tape at the Interior Department and rising costs from Trump’s copper and steel tariffs have created market instability that makes planning difficult, the renewable executives said.

“We don’t want to sign contracts until we know what the playing field is,” said Cliff Graham, CEO of Avantus, a solar and battery storage developer headquartered in San Diego. Avantus has built three gigawatts of solar and storage across the desert Southwest.

“I can do whatever you want me to do and have a viable business, I just need the rules set and in place,” Graham said.

Engie North America, the U.S. arm of a global energy company based in Paris, is slashing its planned investment in the U.S. by 50% due to tariffs and regulatory uncertainty, said David Carroll, the chief renewables officer who leads the American subsidiary. Engie could cut its plans even more, he said.

Engie’s North American subsidiary, headquartered in Houston, will operate about 11 gigawatts of solar, battery storage and wind power by year end.

Multinationals like Engie have long viewed the U.S. as one of the most stable business environments in the world, Carroll said. But that assessment is changing in Engie’s boardroom and across the industry, he said.

“The stability of the U.S. business market is no longer really the gold standard,” Carroll said.

Rising costs

Arevon is seeing costs for solar and battery storage projects increase by as much as 30% due to the metal tariffs, said Smith, the CEO. Many renewable developers are renegotiating power prices with utilities to cover the sudden spike in costs because projects no longer pencil out financially, he said.

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act ends two key tax credits for solar and wind projects in late 2027, making conditions even more challenging. The investment tax credit supported new renewable construction and the production credit boosted clean electricity generation.

Those tax credits were just passed on to consumers, Smith said. Their termination and the rising costs from tariffs will mean higher utility bills for families and businesses, he said.

The price that Avantus charges for solar power has roughly doubled to $60 per megawatt-hour as interest rates and tariffs have increased over the years, said CEO Graham. Prices will surge again to around $100 per megawatt-hour when the tax credits are gone, he said.

“The small manufacturers, small companies and mom and pops will see their electric bills go up, and it’ll start pushing the small entrepreneurs out of the industry or out of the marketplace,” Graham said.

Renewable projects that start construction by next July, a year after the One Big Beautiful Act became law, will still qualify for the tax credits. Arevon, Avantus and Engie are moving forward with projects currently under construction, but the outlook is less certain for projects later in the decade.

The U.S. will see a big downturn in new renewable power generation starting in the second half of 2026 through 2028 as new projects no longer qualify for tax credits, said Smith, the head of Arevon.

“The small- and medium-sized players that can’t take the financial risk, some of them will disappear,” Smith said. “You’re going to see less projects built in the sector.”

Artificial intelligence power crunch

Fewer renewable power plants could increase the risk of brownouts or blackouts, Smith said. Electricity demand is surging from the data centers that technology companies are building to train artificial intelligence systems. PJM Interconnection, the largest electrical grid in the U.S. that coordinates wholesale electricity in 13 states and the District of Columbia, has warned of tight power supplies because too little new generation is coming online.

Renewables are the power source that can most quickly meet demand, Smith at Arevon said. More than 90% of the power waiting to connect to the grid is solar, battery storage or wind, according to data from Enverus.

“The power requirement is largely going to be coming from the new energy sector or not at all,” so without it, “the grid becomes substantially hampered,” Smith said.

Trump is prioritizing oil, gas and nuclear power as “the most effective and reliable tools to power our country,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.

“President Trump serves the American people who voted to implement his America First energy agenda – not solar and wind executives who are sad that Biden’s Green New Scam subsidies are ending,” Kelly said.

But new natural gas plants won’t come online for another five years due to supply issues, new nuclear power is a decade away and no new coal plants are on the drawing board.

Utilities may have to turn away data centers at some point because there isn’t enough surplus power to run them, and no one wants to risk blackouts at hospitals, schools and homes, Arevon’s Smith said. This would pressure the U.S. in its race against China to master AI, a Trump administration priority.

“The panic in the data center, AI world is probably not going to set in for another 12 months or so, when they start realizing that they can’t get the power they need in some of these areas where they’re planning to build data centers,” Smith said.

“Then we’ll see what happens,” said the University of Chicago MBA, who’s worked in the energy industry for 35 years. “There may be a reversal in policy to try and build whatever we can and get power onto the grid.”

Catch up on the latest energy news from CNBC Pro:

Continue Reading

Environment

Tesla offered many Cybertruck trade-ins above purchase price in apparent glitch

Published

on

By

Tesla offered many Cybertruck trade-ins above purchase price in apparent glitch

Over the weekend, Tesla began offering many Cybertruck trade-in estimated values above the original purchase price, apparently due to a glitch in its system.

Tesla offers online trade-in estimates for individuals considering purchasing a vehicle from them.

Over the last few days, Cybertruck owners who submitted their vehicles through the system were surprised to see Tesla offering extremely high valuations on the vehicle, often above what they originally paid for the electric truck.

Here are a few examples:

Advertisement – scroll for more content

  • $79,200 for a 2025 Cybertruck AWD with 18,000 miles. Since this is a 2025 model year, it was eligible for the tax credit and Tesla is offering the same price as new without incentive.
  • Here Tesla offered $118,800 for a 2024 Cybertruck ‘Cyberbeast’ tri-motor with 21,000 miles.
  • In this example, Tesla offers $11,000 more than the owner originally paid for a 2024 Cybertruck.

The trade-in estimates made no sense. Tesla has been known to offer more attractive estimates online and then come lower with the official final offer, but this is on a whole different level.

Some speculated that Tesla’s trade-in estimate system was malfunctioning, while others thought Tesla was indirectly recalling early Cybertrucks.

It appears to be the former.

Some Tesla Cybertruck owners who tried to go through a new order with their Cybertruck as a trade-in were told by Tesla advisors that the system was “glitching” and they would not be honoring those prices.

Tesla told buyers that it would be refunding its usually “non-refundable” order fee.

Electrek’s Take

That’s a weird glitch. I assume that it was trying to change how the trade-in value would be estimated and the new math didn’t work for the Cybertruck for whatever reason.

It’s the only thing that makes sense to me.

The Cybertruck’s value is already quite weird due to the fact that Tesla still has new vehicles made in 2024, which are not eligible for the tax credit incentive, while the new ones made in 2025 are eligible.

There’s also the Foundation Series, which bundles many features for a $20,000 higher price.

All these things affect the value and can make it hard to compare with new Cybertrucks offered with 0% interest.

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Continue Reading

Environment

At $28,000 off, is the Jeep Wagoneer S the best EV deal going? [update]

Published

on

By

At $28,000 off, is the Jeep Wagoneer S the best EV deal going? [update]

Like a 90s “gifted” kid that was supposed to be a lot of things, the electric Jeep Wagoneer S never really found its place — but when dealers started discounting the Jeep brands forward-looking flagship by nearly $25,000 back in June, I wrote that it might be time to give the go-fast Wagoneer S a second look.

This month, the discounts are even better.

UPDATE 23AUG25: I found you some even better EV deals!


Whether we’re talking about Mercedes-Benz, Cerberus, Fiat, or even Enzo Ferrari, outsiders have labeled Jeep as a potentially premium brand that could, “if managed properly,” command luxury-level prices all over the globe. That hasn’t happened, and Stellantis is just the latest in a long line of companies to sink massive capital into the brand only to realize that people will not, in fact, spend Mercedes money on a Jeep.

Advertisement – scroll for more content

That said, the Jeep Wagoneer S is not a bad car (and neither is its totally different, hideously massive, ICE-powered Wagoneer sibling, frankly). Built on the same Stellantis STLA Large vehicle platform that underpins the sporty Charger Daytona EVs, the confusingly-named Wagoneer S packs dual electric motors putting out almost 600 hp. That’s good enough to scoot the ‘ute 0 to 60 mph in a stomach-turning 3.5 seconds and enough, on paper, to convince Stellantis executives that they had developed a real, market-ready alternative to the Tesla Model Y.

With the wrong name and a sky-high starting price of $66,995 (not including the $1,795 destination fee), however, that demand didn’t materialize, leaving the Wagoneer S languishing on dealer lots across the country.

That could be about to change, however, thanks to big discounts on Wagoneer S being reported at CDJR dealers in several states:

  • Jeff Belzer’s in Minnesota has a 2025 Wagoneer S Limited with a $67,790 MSRP for $39,758 ($28,032 off)
  • Troncalli CDJR in Georgia has a 2025 Wagoneer S Limited with a $67,590 MSRP for $42,697 ($24,893 off)
  • Whitewater CDJR in Minnesota has a 2025 Wagoneer S Limited with a $67,790 MSRP for $43,846 ($23,944 off)
  • Antioch CDJR in Illinois has a 2025 Wagoneer S Limited with a $67,790 MSRP for $44,540 ($23,250 off)

“Stellantis bet big on electric versions of iconic American brands like Jeep and Dodge, but consumers aren’t buying the premise,” writes CDG’s Marcus Amick. “(Stellantis’ dealer body) is now stuck with expensive EVs that need huge discounts to move, eating into already thin margins while competitors focus on [more] profitable gas-powered vehicles.”

All of which is to say: if you’ve found yourself drawn to the Jeep Wagoneer S, but couldn’t quite stomach the $70,000+ window stickers, you might want to check in with your local Jeep dealer and see how you feel about it at a JCPenneys-like 30% off!


Original content from Electrek; images via Stellantis.


Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. The best part? No one will call you until after you’ve elected to move forward. Get started, hassle-free, by clicking here.

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.

Continue Reading

Trending