Interest rates hiked by Bank of England by 0.5 percentage points in tenth consecutive rise
The Bank of England has raised UK interest rates by a further half percentage point to 4%, but gave its clearest signal yet that borrowing costs may now be nearing their peak.
This was the Bank’s tenth successive interest rate increase, but in the accompanying documentation, it hinted that there is a chance it might be the last for the time being, saying that it would only raise rates further “if there were to be evidence of more persistent [inflationary] pressures” than in its forecasts.
Those forecasts suggest that inflation has now peaked, and that it will come down gradually this year and next, eventually dropping beneath the Bank’s 2% target.
“I do see the signs that we’re turning a corner, and that obviously is encouraging but there’s a long way to go,” Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, told Sky News in an interview. “There’s still some very big risks out there.”
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BoE governor explains interest rate rise
“We’re going to take it each game as it comes and look at the evidence very closely,” he added.
In raising interest rates again, the Bank pointed to wages in the private sector rising faster than anticipated.
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Chancellor agrees on rate hike
There are widespread strikes this week in the public sector as workers fight for higher wages. Mr Bailey said the Bank would be keeping a close eye on developments in this area, as they could contribute further to inflation.
“What happens going forwards on wage setting will be very important and we’ll be watching it very closely because that will be an important indicator of whether the very sharp downward path of inflation will happen,” he said.
The Bank also upgraded its general forecast for the economy on Thursday.
While it still projects a technical recession this year, it would be a very shallow recession, with overall growth falling by 0.5% in 2023, compared with its November forecast of a 1.5% fall.
“If it emerges now, it’ll be the shallowest recession in a long long time,” Mr Bailey said.
Ed Conway analysis: It’s clear the Bank thinks we are – or near to – a peak in interest rates
Seven members of the nine-person Monetary Policy Committee supported the half percentage point increase, but two members – Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro – voted to leave borrowing costs on hold.
All were told that while the increase today is significant, the hints included in the Bank’s minutes represent a marked change in tone.
Previously it had said that it was ready to respond “forcefully” to higher inflation; this time, that language was removed.
Previously it had said further rate increases might be required if the economy behaved in line with their forecasts; this time it indicated that rate increases were dependent on higher inflation than in its forecasts.
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said the Treasury supports the Bank of England’s decision to increase the interest rate to 4%.
The shifts in language leave the door open for some small further increases in borrowing costs but provide the firmest signal yet that UK interest rates are now at, or close to, their peak.
Outlook still weaker than in recent years
Still, while the outlook for the UK economy is better than in the Bank’s previous forecasts, it is nonetheless far weaker than in recent years.
While the average UK growth rate pre-financial crisis was around 2.5% and around 1.5% post-pandemic, the Bank expects underlying growth of just 0.7% in the coming years.
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Is Brexit to blame? The war in Ukraine? Ed Conway takes a look at why the IMF predicts the UK economy is behind any advanced nation this year
Moreover, because of the fall in national income projected this year, it now expects that the size of the economy will still be at 2019 levels in 2026 – a full seven years of lost growth.
Many other countries around the world have already exceeded their post-pandemic level; the UK, according to the Bank’s figures, is set to languish below it until the second half of this decade.
A spokesperson for the prime minister commenting on the figures said: “Inflation is the biggest threat to living standards in a generation, we support the bank’s action today. We will continue to take the decisions needed to reduce inflation.”
“This is a difficult time for mortgage holders in the UK. Inflation falling is not a given, it requires government to stick to the difficult decisions it has taken.”
On the subject of mortgage rates, Mr Bailey told Sky News that he was “hoping that we’ll see much more stability in the interest rate curve off of which mortgages are priced off.”
“That evidence is helpful, but there are a lot of people who don’t immediately benefit from that,” he added.
Two pro-Palestinian demonstrators have thrown red powder on Tower Bridge – just moments before leading runners in the London Marathon went past.
The protesters were arrested on suspicion of causing a public nuisance and remain in custody, said the Metropolitan Police.
A video shared by Youth Demand, which is calling for a trade embargo on Israel, shows two people jumping over a barrier that separates spectators from the race course.
The pair, wearing t-shirts that say “Youth Demand: Stop Arming Israel”, are then seen standing in the middle of the road on the bridge.
Pic: LNP
They throw red powder in the air as an official marathon car goes past displaying the race time.
A motorbike with a cameraman on board continues along the route, while a second motorbike stops and one of the riders gets off and pushes the pair out of the way, just before the men’s elite runners pass.
Several police officers then jump over the barrier and detain the pair, the footage shows.
There appeared to be no impact on the marathon.
More than 56,000 participants were expected to take part in the 26.2-mile race through the capital.
Sabastian Sawe of Kenya won the men’s elite race in a time of two hours, two minutes and 27 seconds, while Ethiopia’s Tigst Assefa shattered the women’s-only world record in two hours, 15 minutes and 50 seconds.
Assefa beat the previous best of two hours, 16 minutes and 16 seconds set last year in London by Kenyan Peres Jepchirchir.
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Pic: LNP
The Metropolitan Police said in a statement: “At around 10.38am, two protesters from Youth Demand jumped over barriers at Tower Bridge and threw red paint on to the road.
“Marathon event staff intervened to remove the protesters from the path of the men’s elite race which was able to pass unobstructed.”
The force added that they were “quickly supported by police officers who arrested the protesters on suspicion of causing a public nuisance”.
The Met said the paint “appeared to be chalk-based” and was not expected to “present a hazard to runners yet to pass this point”.
Counter-terrorism police are investigating after an incident involving a crossbow and a firearm left two women injured in Leeds.
Police were called to Otley Road at 2.47pm on Saturday to reports of a “serious incident involving a man seen with weapons”, West Yorkshire Police said.
Officers arrived at the scene to find two women injured – and a 38-year-old man with a self-inflicted injury. All three were taken to hospital, with the man held under arrest, but their injuries are not believed to be life-threatening.
“Two weapons have been recovered from the scene, which were a crossbow and a firearm,” Counter Terrorism Policing North East said in a statement.
The incident happened on the ‘Otley Run’ pub crawl, with one venue saying it was closed for the evening due to “unforeseen circumstances”.
Officers guard one of the crime scenes
Officers inside the cordon in Leeds
Counter Terrorism Policing’s statement added: “Due to the circumstances surrounding the incident, Counter Terrorism Policing North East have taken responsibility for leading the investigation with the support of West Yorkshire Police.
“Extensive enquiries continue to establish the full circumstances and explore any potential motivation.”
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper described it as a “serious violent incident” and said she was being kept updated by police.
“Thank you to the police and emergency services for their swift response,” she said. “My thoughts are with the victims and all those affected by this attack.”
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