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The Bank of England has raised UK interest rates by a further half percentage point to 4%, but gave its clearest signal yet that borrowing costs may now be nearing their peak.

This was the Bank’s tenth successive interest rate increase, but in the accompanying documentation, it hinted that there is a chance it might be the last for the time being, saying that it would only raise rates further “if there were to be evidence of more persistent [inflationary] pressures” than in its forecasts.

Those forecasts suggest that inflation has now peaked, and that it will come down gradually this year and next, eventually dropping beneath the Bank’s 2% target.

“I do see the signs that we’re turning a corner, and that obviously is encouraging but there’s a long way to go,” Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, told Sky News in an interview. “There’s still some very big risks out there.”

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BoE governor explains interest rate rise

“We’re going to take it each game as it comes and look at the evidence very closely,” he added.

In raising interest rates again, the Bank pointed to wages in the private sector rising faster than anticipated.

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Chancellor agrees on rate hike

There are widespread strikes this week in the public sector as workers fight for higher wages. Mr Bailey said the Bank would be keeping a close eye on developments in this area, as they could contribute further to inflation.

“What happens going forwards on wage setting will be very important and we’ll be watching it very closely because that will be an important indicator of whether the very sharp downward path of inflation will happen,” he said.

The Bank also upgraded its general forecast for the economy on Thursday.

While it still projects a technical recession this year, it would be a very shallow recession, with overall growth falling by 0.5% in 2023, compared with its November forecast of a 1.5% fall.

“If it emerges now, it’ll be the shallowest recession in a long long time,” Mr Bailey said.

Ed Conway analysis: It’s clear the Bank thinks we are – or near to – a peak in interest rates

Seven members of the nine-person Monetary Policy Committee supported the half percentage point increase, but two members – Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro – voted to leave borrowing costs on hold.

All were told that while the increase today is significant, the hints included in the Bank’s minutes represent a marked change in tone.

Previously it had said that it was ready to respond “forcefully” to higher inflation; this time, that language was removed.

Previously it had said further rate increases might be required if the economy behaved in line with their forecasts; this time it indicated that rate increases were dependent on higher inflation than in its forecasts.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said the Treasury supports the Bank of England’s decision to increase the interest rate to 4%.

The shifts in language leave the door open for some small further increases in borrowing costs but provide the firmest signal yet that UK interest rates are now at, or close to, their peak.

Outlook still weaker than in recent years

Still, while the outlook for the UK economy is better than in the Bank’s previous forecasts, it is nonetheless far weaker than in recent years.

While the average UK growth rate pre-financial crisis was around 2.5% and around 1.5% post-pandemic, the Bank expects underlying growth of just 0.7% in the coming years.

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Is Brexit to blame? The war in Ukraine? Ed Conway takes a look at why the IMF predicts the UK economy is behind any advanced nation this year

Moreover, because of the fall in national income projected this year, it now expects that the size of the economy will still be at 2019 levels in 2026 – a full seven years of lost growth.

Many other countries around the world have already exceeded their post-pandemic level; the UK, according to the Bank’s figures, is set to languish below it until the second half of this decade.

A spokesperson for the prime minister commenting on the figures said: “Inflation is the biggest threat to living standards in a generation, we support the bank’s action today. We will continue to take the decisions needed to reduce inflation.”

“This is a difficult time for mortgage holders in the UK. Inflation falling is not a given, it requires government to stick to the difficult decisions it has taken.”

On the subject of mortgage rates, Mr Bailey told Sky News that he was “hoping that we’ll see much more stability in the interest rate curve off of which mortgages are priced off.”

“That evidence is helpful, but there are a lot of people who don’t immediately benefit from that,” he added.

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Why do so many from around the world try to cross the English Channel?

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Why do so many from around the world try to cross the English Channel?

While the politicians talk, so many people come from around the world to try to get across the Channel on small boats. But why?

Why make such a perilous crossing to try to get to a country that seems to be getting increasingly hostile to asylum seekers?

As the British and French leaders meet, with small boats at the forefront of their agenda, we came to northern France to get some answers.

It is not a new question, but it is peppered with fresh relevance.

Over the course of a morning spent around a migrant camp in Dunkirk, we meet migrants from Gaza, Iraq, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka and beyond.

Some are fearful, waving us away; some are happy to talk. Very few are comfortable to be filmed.

All but one man – who says he’s come to the wrong place and actually wants to claim asylum in Paris – are intent on reaching Britain.

They see the calm seas, feel the light winds – perfect conditions for small boat crossings.

John has come here from South Sudan. He tells me he’s now 18 years old. He left his war-torn home nation just before his 16th birthday. He feels that reaching Britain is his destiny.

“England is my dream country,” he says. “It has been my dream since I was at school. It’s the country that colonised us and when I get there, I will feel like I am home.

“In England, they can give me an opportunity to succeed or to do whatever I need to do in my life. I feel like I am an English child, who was born in Africa.”

John, a migrant from South Sudan, speaks to Sky News Adam Parsons
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‘England is my dream country,’ John tells Adam Parsons

He says he would like to make a career in England, either as a journalist or in human resources, and, like many others we meet, is at pains to insist he will work hard.

The boat crossing is waved away as little more than an inconvenience – a trifle compared with the previous hardships of his journey towards Britain.

We meet a group of men who have all travelled from Gaza, intent on starting new lives in Britain and then bringing their families over to join them.

One man, who left Gaza two years ago, tells me that his son has since been shot in the leg “but there is no hospital for him to go to”.

Next to him, a man called Abdullah says he entered Europe through Greece and stayed there for months on end, but was told the Greek authorities would never allow him to bring over his family.

Britain, he thinks, will be more accommodating. “Gaza is being destroyed – we need help,” he says.

Abdullah, a migrant from Gaza, speaking to Sky's Adam Parsons
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Abdullah says ‘Gaza is being destroyed – we need help’

A man from Eritrea tells us he is escaping a failing country and has friends in Britain – he plans to become a bicycle courier in either London or Manchester.

He can’t stay in France, he says, because he doesn’t speak French. The English language is presented as a huge draw for many of the people we talk to, just as it had been during similar conversations over the course of many years.

I ask many of these people why they don’t want to stay in France, or another safe European country.

Some repeat that they cannot speak the language and feel ostracised. Another says that he tried, and failed, to get a residency permit in both France and Belgium.

But this is also, clearly, a flawed survey. Last year, five times as many people sought asylum in France as in Britain.

And French critics have long insisted that Britain, a country without a European-style ID card system, makes itself attractive to migrants who can “disappear”.

Read more:
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French police forced to watch on as migrants attempt crossing

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Migrant Channel crossings hit new record

A young man from Iraq, with absolutely perfect English, comes for a chat. He oozes confidence and a certain amount of mischief.

It has taken him only seven days to get from Iraq to Dunkirk; when I ask how he has made the trip so quickly, he shrugs. “Money talks”.

He looks around him. “Let me tell you – all of these people you see around you will be getting to Britain and the first job they get will be in the black market, so they won’t be paying any tax.

“Back in the day in Britain, they used to welcome immigrants very well, but these days I don’t think they want to, because there’s too many of them coming by boat. Every day it’s about seven or 800 people. That’s too many people.”

“But,” I ask, “if those people are a problem – then what makes you different? Aren’t you a problem too?”

He shakes his head emphatically. “I know that I’m a very good guy. And I won’t be a problem. I’ll only stay in Britain for a few years and then I’ll leave again.”

A young man from Iraq walks away from Sky's Adam Parsons

A man from Sri Lanka says he “will feel safe” when he gets to Britain; a tall, smiling man from Ethiopia echoes the sentiment: “We are not safe in our home country so we have come all this way,” he says. “We want to work, to be part of Britain.”

Emmanuel is another from South Sudan – thoughtful and eloquent. He left his country five years ago – “at the start of COVID” – and has not seen his children in all that time. His aim is to start a new life in Britain, and then to bring his family to join him.

He is a trained electrical engineer, but says he could also work as a lorry driver. He is adamant that Britain has a responsibility to the people of its former colony.

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“The British came to my country – colonising, killing, raping,” he said. “And we didn’t complain. We let it happen.

“I am not the problem. I won’t fight anyone; I want to work. And if I break the laws – if any immigrant breaks the laws – then fine, deport them.

“I know it won’t be easy – some people won’t like me, some people will. But England is my dream.”

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UK and France have ‘shared responsibility’ to tackle illegal migration, Emmanuel Macron says

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UK and France have 'shared responsibility' to tackle illegal migration, Emmanuel Macron says

Emmanuel Macron has said the UK and France have a “shared responsibility” to tackle the “burden” of illegal migration, as he urged co-operation between London and Paris ahead of a crunch summit later this week.

Addressing parliament in the Palace of Westminster on Tuesday, the French president said the UK-France summit would bring “cooperation and tangible results” regarding the small boats crisis in the Channel.

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King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA
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King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA

Mr Macron – who is the first European leader to make a state visit to the UK since Brexit – told the audience that while migrants’ “hope for a better life elsewhere is legitimate”, “we cannot allow our countries’ rules for taking in people to be flouted and criminal networks to cynically exploit the hopes of so many individuals with so little respect for human life”.

“France and the UK have a shared responsibility to address irregular migration with humanity, solidarity and fairness,” he added.

Looking ahead to the UK-France summit on Thursday, he promised the “best ever cooperation” between France and the UK “to fix today what is a burden for our two countries”.

Sir Keir Starmer will hope to reach a deal with his French counterpart on a “one in, one out” migrant returns deal at the key summit on Thursday.

King Charles also addressed the delegations at a state banquet in Windsor Castle on Tuesday evening, saying the summit would “deepen our alliance and broaden our partnerships still further”.

King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.
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King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.

Sitting next to President Macron, the monarch said: “Our armed forces will cooperate even more closely across the world, including to support Ukraine as we join together in leading a coalition of the willing in defence of liberty and freedom from oppression. In other words, in defence of our shared values.”

In April, British officials confirmed a pilot scheme was being considered to deport migrants who cross the English Channel in exchange for the UK accepting asylum seekers in France with legitimate claims.

The two countries have engaged in talks about a one-for-one swap, enabling undocumented asylum seekers who have reached the UK by small boat to be returned to France.

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Britain would then receive migrants from France who would have a right to be in the UK, like those who already have family settled here.

The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.

France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks at the Palace of Westminster during a state visit to the UK
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President Macron greets Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle at his address to parliament in Westminster.

Elsewhere in his speech, the French president addressed Brexit, and said the UK could not “stay on the sidelines” despite its departure from the European Union.

He said European countries had to break away from economic dependence on the US and China.

Read more:
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“Our two countries are among the oldest sovereign nations in Europe, and sovereignty means a lot to both of us, and everything I referred to was about sovereignty, deciding for ourselves, choosing our technologies, our economy, deciding our diplomacy, and deciding the content we want to share and the ideas we want to share, and the controversies we want to share.

“Even though it is not part of the European Union, the United Kingdom cannot stay on the sidelines because defence and security, competitiveness, democracy – the very core of our identity – are connected across Europe as a continent.”

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In pictures: Princess of Wales, Elton John and Mick Jagger at King’s state banquet for Macron

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In pictures: Princess of Wales, Elton John and Mick Jagger at King's state banquet for Macron

The Princess of Wales and celebrities attended the King’s star-studded state banquet on Tuesday, where Emmanuel Macron paid tribute to the late Queen Elizabeth II.

On the first day of Mr Macron’s state visit, King Charles gave a toast in French and said the three-day trip was another chance to “celebrate a deep and enduring friendship”.

“What’s possibly the most remarkable thing is the way in which the speciality of one country is part of the story of the other,” the monarch said.

“For centuries, our citizens have admired one another. We’ve made each other laugh, and we’ve imitated one another.”

The Prince and Princess of Wales at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA
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The Prince and Princess of Wales at the State Banquet. Pic: PA

The banquet hall at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
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The banquet hall at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

The King makes a speech at a banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
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The King makes a speech at a banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

King Charles looks at Emmanuel Macron at a state banquet at Windsor Castle
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King Charles looks at Emmanuel Macron at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

After the King’s speech, Mr Macron told him France had a “real affection for your mother” Queen Elizabeth II, adding he believed the feeling was “reciprocal”.

“She was your queen,” he said. “To us, she was the Queen.”

He capped off his speech – which repeated his calls for closer relations that he made earlier in the Palace of Westminster – by saying: “In honour of the United Kingdom, of this entente amico that unites our two fraternal peoples in an unwavering alliance.

“Long live the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland! Long live France!”

Emmanuel Macron gives a speech at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
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Emmanuel Macron gives a speech at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

The Princess of Wales also made her first appearance at a state banquet in almost two years, sitting next to the French president.

She last made an appearance at a grand royal dinner in November 2023 in honour of the South Korean president. It comes after she opened up about her “rollercoaster” cancer recovery last week.

Emmanuel Macron and Kate, the Princess of Wales, share a toast. Pic: PA
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Emmanuel Macron and Kate, the Princess of Wales, share a toast. Pic: PA

Also in attendance were Sir Mick Jagger, frontman of The Rolling Stones, who was joined by his fiancee Melanie Hamrick, and Sir Elton John, who was accompanied by his husband David Furnish.

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Mick Jagger taking his seat at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
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Mick Jagger taking his seat at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

Elton John and David Furnish at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA SQUARE
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Elton John and David Furnish at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

Meanwhile, it was announced that the Bayeux Tapestry, depicting the Norman conquest of England, will return to the UK for the first time in more than 900 years, and will feature in an exhibition from September 2026 to July 2027.

Mr Macron joked ahead of the state banquet that negotiations to bring the 11th-century artwork back to the UK took longer “than all the Brexit tests”. Talks on a loan had started as early as 2018.

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