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The Bank of England has raised UK interest rates by a further half percentage point to 4%, but gave its clearest signal yet that borrowing costs may now be nearing their peak.

This was the Bank’s tenth successive interest rate increase, but in the accompanying documentation, it hinted that there is a chance it might be the last for the time being, saying that it would only raise rates further “if there were to be evidence of more persistent [inflationary] pressures” than in its forecasts.

Those forecasts suggest that inflation has now peaked, and that it will come down gradually this year and next, eventually dropping beneath the Bank’s 2% target.

“I do see the signs that we’re turning a corner, and that obviously is encouraging but there’s a long way to go,” Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, told Sky News in an interview. “There’s still some very big risks out there.”

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BoE governor explains interest rate rise

“We’re going to take it each game as it comes and look at the evidence very closely,” he added.

In raising interest rates again, the Bank pointed to wages in the private sector rising faster than anticipated.

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Chancellor agrees on rate hike

There are widespread strikes this week in the public sector as workers fight for higher wages. Mr Bailey said the Bank would be keeping a close eye on developments in this area, as they could contribute further to inflation.

“What happens going forwards on wage setting will be very important and we’ll be watching it very closely because that will be an important indicator of whether the very sharp downward path of inflation will happen,” he said.

The Bank also upgraded its general forecast for the economy on Thursday.

While it still projects a technical recession this year, it would be a very shallow recession, with overall growth falling by 0.5% in 2023, compared with its November forecast of a 1.5% fall.

“If it emerges now, it’ll be the shallowest recession in a long long time,” Mr Bailey said.

Ed Conway analysis: It’s clear the Bank thinks we are – or near to – a peak in interest rates

Seven members of the nine-person Monetary Policy Committee supported the half percentage point increase, but two members – Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro – voted to leave borrowing costs on hold.

All were told that while the increase today is significant, the hints included in the Bank’s minutes represent a marked change in tone.

Previously it had said that it was ready to respond “forcefully” to higher inflation; this time, that language was removed.

Previously it had said further rate increases might be required if the economy behaved in line with their forecasts; this time it indicated that rate increases were dependent on higher inflation than in its forecasts.

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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said the Treasury supports the Bank of England’s decision to increase the interest rate to 4%.

The shifts in language leave the door open for some small further increases in borrowing costs but provide the firmest signal yet that UK interest rates are now at, or close to, their peak.

Outlook still weaker than in recent years

Still, while the outlook for the UK economy is better than in the Bank’s previous forecasts, it is nonetheless far weaker than in recent years.

While the average UK growth rate pre-financial crisis was around 2.5% and around 1.5% post-pandemic, the Bank expects underlying growth of just 0.7% in the coming years.

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Is Brexit to blame? The war in Ukraine? Ed Conway takes a look at why the IMF predicts the UK economy is behind any advanced nation this year

Moreover, because of the fall in national income projected this year, it now expects that the size of the economy will still be at 2019 levels in 2026 – a full seven years of lost growth.

Many other countries around the world have already exceeded their post-pandemic level; the UK, according to the Bank’s figures, is set to languish below it until the second half of this decade.

A spokesperson for the prime minister commenting on the figures said: “Inflation is the biggest threat to living standards in a generation, we support the bank’s action today. We will continue to take the decisions needed to reduce inflation.”

“This is a difficult time for mortgage holders in the UK. Inflation falling is not a given, it requires government to stick to the difficult decisions it has taken.”

On the subject of mortgage rates, Mr Bailey told Sky News that he was “hoping that we’ll see much more stability in the interest rate curve off of which mortgages are priced off.”

“That evidence is helpful, but there are a lot of people who don’t immediately benefit from that,” he added.

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Man and boy arrested on suspicion of arson after restaurant fire leaves two in critical condition

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Man and boy arrested on suspicion of arson after restaurant fire leaves two in critical condition

A 54-year-old man and a 15-year-old boy have been arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life after a restaurant fire in east London on Friday.

Three people were taken to hospital in a life-threatening condition after the fire at the Indian Aroma in Ilford.

Two remained in a critical condition on Sunday morning, according to the Metropolitan Police.

The restaurant suffered extensive damage in the blaze.

Two further victims are thought to have left the scene before officers arrived, Scotland Yard said.

Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures
Image:
Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures

Police are still trying to identify them.

CCTV footage seen by the PA news agency appears to show a group of people wearing face coverings walk into the restaurant and pour liquid on the floor.

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Seconds later, the inside of the restaurant is engulfed in flames.

“While we have made two arrests, our investigation continues at pace so we can piece together what happened on Friday evening,” said the Met Police’s DCI Mark Rogers.

“I know the community [is] concerned and shocked by this incident.

The moment the fire broke out.
Image:
The moment the fire broke out.

“I would urge anyone with any information or concerns to come forward and speak to police.”

Hospital porter Edward Thawe went to help after hearing screams from his nearby home.

He described the scene as “horrible” and “more than scary and the sort of thing that you don’t want to look at twice.”

He said: “I heard screaming and people saying they had called the police.”

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The 43-year-old said he saw a woman and a severely burned man who may have been customers.

Another witness, who did not want to be named, said he saw three “severely burned” people being doused by the emergency services and given oxygen.

“I can only imagine the pain they were going through,” he said.

On Saturday, the London Ambulance Service told Sky News: “We sent resources to the scene, including ambulance crews, an advanced paramedic, an incident response officer and paramedics from our hazardous area response team.

“We treated five people for burns and smoke inhalation. We took two patients to a major trauma centre and three others to local hospitals.”

The police investigation is continuing.

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Fast-track asylum appeals process to be introduced – as average time for decisions is more than one year

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Fast-track asylum appeals process to be introduced - as average time for decisions is more than one year

A new fast-track asylum appeals process will be introduced to speed up the process of deporting people without a right to remain in the UK, the home secretary has said.

As it currently takes, on average, more than a year to reach a decision on asylum appeals, the government plans to set up a new independent panel focused on asylum appeals to help reduce the backlog.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said “completely unacceptable” delays in the appeals process left failed asylum seekers in the system for years.

There are about 51,000 asylum appeals waiting to be heard.

The new independent body will use professionally-trained adjudicators, rather than relying on judges.

Ministers are introducing a new 24-week deadline for the first-tier tribunal to determine asylum appeals by those receiving accommodation support and appeals by foreign offenders.

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Police clash with protesters in Bristol

But they believe the current tribunal system, which covers a wide range of different cases, is still failing to ensure failed asylum seekers can be returned as swiftly as possible, nor can it accommodate a fast-track system for safe countries.

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It comes amid protests about the use of hotel accommodation for migrants.

The home secretary said the overhaul would result in a system which is “swift, fair and independent, with high standards in place”.

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She said: “We inherited an asylum system in complete chaos with a soaring backlog of asylum cases and a broken appeals system with thousands of people in the system for years on end.

“That is why we are taking practical steps to fix the foundations and restore control and order to the system.

“We are determined to substantially reduce the number of people in the asylum system as part of our plan to end asylum hotels.

“Already since the election, we have reduced the backlog of people waiting for initial decisions by 24% and increased failed asylum returns by 30%.

“But we cannot carry on with these completely unacceptable delays in appeals as a result of the system we have inherited which mean that failed asylum seekers stay in the system for years on end at huge cost to the taxpayer.”

Official figures released earlier this month showed a total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.

‘Waving immigrants through even faster will not fix the problem’

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “I think this goes nowhere near far enough.

“The underlying rights, which allows most illegal immigrants to stay here, are not changing. Simply waving illegal immigrants through even faster to full housing and welfare rights will not fix the problem.”

Chris Philp
Image:
Chris Philp

He added: “Immigration judges will still apply ever expanding common-sense defying definitions of ECHR rights to allow foreign criminals and illegal immigrants to stay here.”

But the Liberal Democrats have been more positive in their response, with shadow attorney general, Ben Maguire, saying: “A faster application process would mean that those with no right to be here are sent back swiftly and those who do have a valid claim can get a job, integrate and contribute to the community.”

Asked for his thoughts on the policy, immigration lawyer Harjap Singh Bhangal told Sky News that it “definitely sounds like some sort of solution”.

He pointed that the backlog of asylum seekers waiting for a decision is “huge”, around 51,000 people – and that during this time, they are not allowed to work.

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A new fast-track asylum appeals process will be introduced to speed up the process of deporting people without a right to remain in the UK.

He said: “The equivalent would be saying that imagine if A-level students this year sat the exams and were told ‘well, hold on, you’re not going to get your results for two years’ time. But in the meantime, you can’t go to university.’

“You’d have mayhem, and it’d be pandemonium in the street. You’d have broken people idle with nothing to do. Essentially, this is what’s happening to asylum seekers.”

He added that one of the reasons it takes so long for cases to be heard is because asylum seekers have to represent themselves in court, which can mean upwards of half a day is spent translating and explaining everything to them.

Mr Bhangal also said the immigration system is “broken”, because “they take ages to make a decision which could be made in one week”.

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Family pay tribute to ‘beloved’ man who died in ‘accident while working on fairground ride’

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Family pay tribute to 'beloved' man who died in 'accident while working on fairground ride'

A man who died after suffering “serious head injuries” while “working on a fairground ride” has been named as Corrie Lee Stavers.

Emergency services were called to the Spanish City Summer Funfair in Whitley Bay in North Tyneside after reports that a man, in his 20s, had been injured around 2.15pm on Saturday, police said.

Mr Stavers, 28, was treated at the scene but was declared dead a short time later.

In a statement issued by the police, his family said: “It’s with broken hearts that we share the devastating news that our beloved Corrie has passed away.

“He was tragically taken from us in an accident while working on a fairground ride. None of us were prepared for this, and the pain of losing him so suddenly is impossible to put into words.

“Our lives will never be the same without him, but his memory will live on in our hearts forever.

“We love you endlessly Corrie, and we miss you more than words can ever say.

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“You’re with our mam now – rest in peace Corrie.”

The funfair, which is in Whitley Bay’s Spanish City Plaza area, has been shut “until further notice” and the Health and Safety Executive has been informed.

The annual funfair had opened on Thursday and had been due to run until Bank Holiday Monday.

Read more from Sky News:
Man and boy arrested after restaurant fire
Fast-track asylum appeals process to be introduced

A Northumbria Police spokesman said: “Emergency services attended and a man in his 20s was found to have suffered serious head injuries.

“Despite the best efforts of medical staff, a short time later the man was sadly declared dead.

“His next of kin have been contacted and are being supported by specialist officers.”

The spokesman added: “Our thoughts are with the man’s family at this extremely difficult time.

“We have contacted the Health and Safety Executive and are working with them to establish exactly what happened.

“The fair has been closed to the public and will remain closed until further notice.”

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