‘It’s been a journey’: The Brown twins’ long road toward NFL dreams
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Illinois running back Chase Brown and safety Sydney Brown began their lives two minutes apart, identical twins born at 5:33 and 5:35 a.m., respectively, on March 21, 2000.
“Everything they’ve done,” said their mother, Raechel, “they’ve done together, at the same time.”
This past season, they helped revive the Illinois football program, which posted its highest wins total (8) since 2007. This week, they will become the first twins to play in the Senior Bowl. This spring, the Browns are expected to become just the sixth set of twins taken in the same draft over the past 40 years.
They’ve done it despite an unsettled home situation that made it difficult to keep up in school while growing up in London, Ontario. The Brown twins moved to an estimated 20 homes and shelters with their mom and younger sister, Mya, before they were 16. Chase and Sydney became football stars, but in Ontario, where hockey is king, that didn’t mean much.
They didn’t come from a family of college graduates, and without a platform to maximize their athletic ability, they couldn’t conceive of a path to a university degree.
They needed help.
“Our goals were to play college football, but we didn’t know how we were going to get there,” Chase said.
They didn’t know much about college football, either.
“If I’m being honest, I thought South Dakota and f—ing Alabama are on the same level,” Sydney said.
Six years later, Chase finished the 2022 season as the nation’s No. 2 rusher (1,643 yards), and a Doak Walker Award finalist with 10 games of 100 yards or more. He was a second-team All-Big Ten selection. On Dec. 14, he won the Jon Cornish Trophy, given to the best Canadian player in college football.
Sydney earned first-team All-Big Ten honors, leading an Illinois defense ranked No. 1 nationally for much of the season. He tied for the national lead with six interceptions and added 59 tackles. He had two defensive touchdowns in the regular-season finale at Northwestern.
They are believed to be one of the first set of twins to earn All-Big Ten recognition in the same season.
Their football journey has already taken them across a border and several state lines, and required sacrifice, resilience and the maturity to assess their lives and make difficult choices.
The toughest of which came at age 16.
RAECHEL BROWN WAS just 18 when she had Chase and Sydney, a single mom juggling work and immense responsibility. She lived at times with her father and brother, but both eventually died. She leaned on her mom, Nancy, the boys’ beloved Nan, and her stepfather, Alan McQuillan, but life wasn’t easy.
Raechel estimates that she moved more than 20 times, including to shelters. She also became very ill after having Mya, which limited her ability to work.
“It’s been a journey,” Raechel said. “A lot of great and a lot of not-so great all mixed together.”
Chase and Sydney didn’t live with their father, Darren Isaac, who played briefly in the Canadian Football League, and weren’t close with him when they were young. But Isaac and others on his side of the family played football, which “drew our interest into the sport,” Sydney said.
They started in flag football at 7 and coaches soon told Raechel that her boys had high-level potential. Even though she worried about injuries, she moved them up, and they began traveling around Ontario for games. When the boys were 15, coaches from other teams told Rachel that she had to get them to the United States.
Although some FBS programs recruit players directly from Canadian high school programs, Chase and Sydney weren’t going to have the academics to take that route. They were doing the “bare minimum,” Raechel said, to stay on the field.
“I had people tell me straight up it’s not possible, they’re never going to be able to go to college,” Raechel said. “Public schools like to put kids in a little box here. They weren’t being forced to do anything that was going to get them to where they wanted to be.”
As high school freshmen, the Browns applied to Mercyhurst Prep in Pennsylvania, but were denied. They reached a critical point during the summer between their sophomore and junior years. After being evicted because of a lack of finances, Raechel and Mya were living in a shelter, and Chase and Sydney alternated between that shelter and their Nan’s home.
They had connected with Justin Dillon, a recruiting consultant in Canada. Dillon had mentioned the twins to Josh Clark, who helped launch the IMG Madden Football Academy in Bradenton, Florida, and had placed players at IMG and other area schools. Clark thought Saint Stephen’s Episcopal School in Bradenton would be a good fit for the Browns.
“It was getting to be late summer,” Clark said. “Saint Stephens had the setup and was looking to succeed in football, and [the Browns] needed a home. There wasn’t a lot of time. It was helping two kids out with the private school that had the resources and provided them with a good life.”
Things moved quickly. After the twins were admitted, Raechel began speaking with Saint Stephens coach Tod Creneti and others. The boys couldn’t live with a coach or a faculty member, so a host family was found. Phil and Karen Yates were empty nesters whose kids had gone to Saint Stephens.
“Phil called me and we had the most emotional conversation I’ve ever had in my life with a complete stranger,” Raechel said. “I remember crying. He asked if I thought the boys were going to be OK without me. I said, ‘I depend more on them than they depend on me.’ That was the reason why it was so important for them to go and focus on themselves.”
The next day, Raechel and the twins began the 20-hour drive to Florida, along with McQuillan, her stepfather. They met the Yateses for dinner. By the end of the week, Chase and Sydney were moved in and attending classes.
Raechel cried for hours on the drive back home — “the world’s worst passenger” for McQuillan. But she knew this was the right decision.
“We just took a leap of faith,” Sydney said. “Within a week of applying to the school, we were fully engulfed with everything.”
THE MOVE WAS seismic for Chase and Sydney, and came with several aftershocks.
They went from living in subsidized housing and shelters in a Canadian city to a gated community on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Chase and Sydney were behind academically when they arrived, but math was an especially urgent need.
They were high school juniors taking basic algebra, taught only at the middle school at Saint Stephens.
“Honestly, that humbled us,” Sydney said. “You have these twins who come down from Canada to Florida, and all our buddies [in Canada] thought it was sick. But we get down there and it’s like, ‘Hey, you’ve got to dial in.’ Walking to the middle school every day …
“It was the walk of shame,” Chase said.
Phil Yates had tutored kids in math over the years, so every night for several months, he and Karen worked with the twins to catch up in school.
The twins had some initial homesickness, especially Sydney, but they FaceTimed with Raechel, and she made several visits. They settled into life in Florida.
Creneti initially told the Yateses that they would need to host the Browns for only two weeks. Phil soon replied that Chase and Sydney weren’t going anywhere.
“It felt very natural,” Karen Yates said.
The Browns stayed with the Yates family until their final semester, when the Yateses moved to Texas and Chase and Sydney stayed with their neighbors, Tom and Michelle Cross. By then, the time with Phil and Karen had already made an impression.
“What we thought success was completely changed when we moved in with them,” Sydney said. “We were never exposed to that side of society, and really understood the potential that life can bring, if you go to school, if you get your s— done, if you develop a proper work ethic, if you’re an efficient person in society.
“It was such a big flip. We learned so much about how we don’t want to go back.”
Football was the easy part. The Browns had to sit out Saint Stephens’ first two games in an acclimation period, and those two games would be the team’s only losses during the two seasons Chase and Sydney played.
After the 2016 season, Chase got his first scholarship offer from Syracuse, rich in running back tradition. But he waited for other offers to come, including Western Michigan, which had a top aviation school. After living with Phil Yates — a test pilot after 25 years in the Navy, where he flew F-14s and F-18s — Chase was all-in on becoming a pilot. Even as other offers came in, Chase was set on WMU, taking no other official visits.
“I would have hung up the cleats, put the helmet away, put the pads away, just to go be a pilot,” Chase said. “I thought Phil was a rock star.”
Sydney’s recruiting went slower. His height was a concern for some schools, even those who wanted Chase. When offers finally arrived, they came mainly from smaller programs like South Dakota.
“Bama’s next,” he joked to himself.
But just before the early signing date, Sydney got a surprise offer from Illinois and he jumped at the chance to play in the Big Ten.
The only problem was it would separate the twins.
“They wanted to go to college together,” Raechel said. “That was the dream.”
THE BROWNS ARE identical twins but also mirror twins, a subtype in which each sibling’s features and traits are opposite from the other, creating a mirror-image effect. Sydney is right-handed; Chase is left-handed. Chase is laid back; Sydney operates with relentless intensity. When they were little, Raechel noticed their hair curling in opposite directions.
Like many twins, though, the Browns are drawn to each other.
As a freshman in 2018, Chase had 352 rushing yards for Western Michigan and returned 12 kickoffs. But he found out his scholarship didn’t cover flight classes, which he couldn’t afford.
He saw Sydney thriving at Illinois, starting 10 games and recording 55 tackles and five pass breakups. Despite a strong spring at WMU, Chase transferred.
“I wanted to be with him,” Chase said of his twin. “I wanted to have that relationship, where he could push me, I could push him, like we had in high school.”
While waiting to be admitted, Chase slept on the floor of Sydney’s apartment, on a “dog bed” of blankets and pillows. After gaining admission, he and Sydney moved to a larger place and began training camp with the Illini. The one-time transfer rule wasn’t in effect yet, so Chase sat out until mid-October, when he received an immediate-eligibility waiver to play. He appeared in four games, mostly on special teams, to preserve his redshirt.
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Chase Brown runs through tacklers for TD
Chase Brown stays on his feet in the hole and gets into the end zone for an Illinois touchdown.
“His work ethic stood out to me right away, but he was a little impatient in his play,” said Cory Patterson, who coached Illinois’ tight ends at the time before switching to running backs in 2021. “Everything was fast, because he’s a fast kid. The way he talked, the way he thought, it was like [snaps his fingers three times], he wanted to give you the answer, ‘I want to get out there, I want to do it for you, I want to make it happen.’
“As he became more patient, you saw him develop.”
Sydney had a more linear trajectory at Illinois, earning third-team All-Big Ten honors in 2019, when he finished second in the Big Ten in interceptions (3) and sixth in tackles per game (8). When Aaron Henry arrived as defensive backs coach following a transition, he saw a detailed, observant player, fully dedicated to the game.
“I don’t think I’ve ever been around a player wired like him,” Henry said of Sydney. “Every day, he leaves the practice field, he has a 20-minute stretch routine. He has a 20-minute stretch routine he does right before he goes to bed. Then he eats the same thing for breakfast. It’s almost like OCD. He probably could have been a really good MMA fighter, just the way he approaches life and the way he approaches this game.”
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Sydney Brown scores defensive touchdown vs. Illinois
Sydney Brown scores defensive touchdown vs. Illinois
Patterson has noticed similar discipline from Chase, who “just wants to work.”
Just how driven and disciplined are they? After taking the twins to Indianapolis for Big Ten media days in July, Illinois coach Bret Bielema watched them agonize over whether to drink a Coke before dinner.
They bring out the competitiveness in each other. One time in preseason practice, Sydney landed a big hit on Chase — “Stroked him,” Henry recalled — only to have Chase pop him in his facemask.
“We’re throwing hands at each other,” Sydney said. “I get kicked out of practice, he still gets to practice. I’m a total freak if you take something from me. He took my reps from practice. The competitive nature, it carries onto pretty much everything we do. It carries onto the hydration board, who’s going to drink their DripDrop first.
“It’s just fun having somebody that’s equally competitive on the other side of the ball.”
GROWING UP IN Canada, the Browns didn’t really talk about the NFL. Playing major college football was their goal. Both have earned their degrees at Illinois.
But their college careers have put both on the NFL radar. Chase, who has 2,648 rushing yards the past two seasons, is No. 137 on ESPN’s draft prospect rankings. Sydney has surged to No. 125 on ESPN’s prospect list, displaying a combination of speed, intelligence and physicality to thrive as a pro safety.
NFL scouts project both as Day 3 picks who will need to contribute on special teams and find the right schemes. Sydney’s special teams prowess should help his value. Before games, opposing coaches told Bielema how often Sydney jumped out during their special teams scouting.
“I can see a special teams coordinator falling in love with the guy, just in terms of his toughness and the speed,” a scout said.
Bielema described Sydney as a “niche fit safety,” suited for some NFL systems but not all. He’s a safety-linebacker hybrid who can play in the box because of his instincts, core strength and coverage skills.
“He’s got the impact and the power and ability to make short-area very powerful tackles, sheds blocks kind of like [former NFL safety] Bob Sanders,” said Bielema, who spent three seasons as an NFL assistant before coming to Illinois. “But he kind of has that big-play mentality of [New England Patriots safety] Jabrill Peppers. Especially the last half of the season, Sydney just took over the game on several occasions.”
All the way from Canada ??@chasebrown____ and @Sydbrown___ reunited with their mom after two years!#famILLy pic.twitter.com/0Nwcwbikd9
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) November 27, 2021
Chase likely will be “more of a complementary back,” a scout said, lacking the biggest build at 5-foot-11 and 205 pounds. He reached 1,000 rushing yards in 2021 but eclipsed 18 carries only three times. Chase emerged this past season as not only a prolific and productive ball carrier — he had 20 or more carries in 10 of 12 games and just one performance of fewer than 98 rush yards — but also a versatile one.
He had 27 receptions, nearly eclipsing his total from his first three college seasons (31), and improved as a pass blocker.
“He can run right by you, he can run right through you and he can make you miss, that’s a very unusual combo,” Bielema said. “But the third-down value he brings is just very, very uncommon. … When you have a running back who can run it and protect, that’s going to bring good value.”
With their NFL journey set to begin in just a few months it’s likely the twins will be separated again. For now they are savoring their time together, though.
“How many people could say they played college ball with their brother?” Chase said. “We’re going to be able to look back on these four, five years of our lives and be like, ‘Remember this game? Remember when this happened?'”
Listening to his twin, Sydney nodded.
“There’s so much more to life.”
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David Hale
The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.
We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.
Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).
That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.
The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”
That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.
But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.
The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.
Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.
It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).
That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.
Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.
But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.
Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)
And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?
This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.
Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…
We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.
For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.
But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?
Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.
As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)
Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?
That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.
This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.
A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.
Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).
The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”
What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.
Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.
Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.
We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…
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SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.
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FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.
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Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.
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FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.
So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?
We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.
(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)
But, speaking of Alabama…
4. Championship game participants
Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?
This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).
OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.
So, what happens if Alabama loses?
The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.
Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.
It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.
Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.
But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.
Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State
Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy
Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF
Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five
Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd
FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th
There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.
Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.
Welcome to the party, James Madison.
With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.
If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.
At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.
A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.
At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.
Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.
Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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