In an era of orbital satellites so advanced that they are able to make out objects half the size of cars from space, a spy balloon might seem like a bit of a relic.
They were a prominent tool for reconnaissance during the Cold War and were even used in a more basic form for intelligence gathering in the Napoleonic Wars more than 200 years ago.
But security experts say the balloons are just the “tip of a revolution” in the development and use of new high-altitude surveillance craft, with the UK even investing millions in a project to develop spy balloons last year.
It comes as the US military on Friday said it was tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon that has been flying over northwestern America in recent days.
Image: A high-altitude balloon floats over Billings in Montana
A senior defence official said the US has “very high confidence” it is a Chinese high-altitude balloon and was flying over sensitive sites to collect information, while China has not immediately denied the balloon belonged to them.
Beijing admitted that the balloon had come from China, but insisted it was a “civilian airship” that had strayed into American airspace and that it was for meteorological and other scientific research.
What are spy balloons?
The devices are lightweight balloons, filled with gas, usually helium, and attached to a piece of spying equipment such as a long-range camera.
Advertisement
They can be launched from the ground and are sent up into the air where they can reach heights of between 60,000ft (18,000m) and 150,000ft (45,000m), above the flight paths of commercial aircraft in an area known as “near space”.
Once in the air, they travel using a mixture of air currents and pressurised air pockets, which can act as a form of steering.
Why are they still useful in the satellite era?
According to defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke, the biggest advantage of spy balloons over satellites are that they can study an area over a longer period of time.
Image: Professor Michael Clarke
“The advantage is they can stay in one place for a long time,” he told Sky News.
“Because of the way the Earth rotates, unless a satellite is over the Equator, you need three to five satellites going all the time to track the same spot.
“These balloons are also relatively cheap, and much easier to launch than a satellite.”
Will balloons continue to be used in future for spying?
Very much so, according to Professor Clarke.
Despite the wide use of satellite technology, countries including the UK are also focusing on the development and use of spycraft to operate in the upper atmosphere.
In August, it was announced the Ministry of Defence had agreed a £100m deal with US defence company Sierra Nevada to provide high-altitude unmanned balloons to be used for surveillance and reconnaissance.
Professor Clarke said: “(These balloons) are the very tip of the revolution for passive upper atmosphere aircraft.”
He said other defence firms, such as BAE, were working on ultralight solar-powered drones which are able to operate in the upper atmosphere and stay in place for up to 20 months.
Why have China used them now?
According to Professor Clarke, the use of these balloons, if indeed they were launched by China, will likely have been a message to the US following its decision to open new military bases in the Philippines.
“I think it’s a challenge,” he said.
“They (China) are signalling that if the US is going to come closer to them then they will be more aggressive with their surveillance.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
“It is also caused a political issue in the US now, because it will be seen as a sign of weakness not to shoot it down.
“This causes some embarrassment, but the US doesn’t need to respond.”
The balloon was spotted over Billings, Montana,on Wednesday – close to one of the US’s three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:19
Mao Ning, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, says that those involved should be ‘cool-headed’
Military and defence leaders said they considered shooting the balloon out of the sky but decided against it due to the safety risk from falling debris.
Professor Clarke added: “I think the debris issue is a bit of an excuse. It was over one of the least densely populated areas of the US and if they needed to they could have asked everyone to stay inside.
“I don’t think they wanted to make it a bigger issue, because China are daring them to shoot it down and make it an international issue.”
Spy balloon threatens efforts to ease US-China relations
Distrust between the Chinese and the Americans is as high as it’s been for decades.
An incident like this would serve to feed that distrust no matter when it happened, but coming, as it has, just days before Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s highly significant visit to Beijing could seriously undermine tentative efforts being made on both sides to try to halt any further deterioration in relations.
Mr Blinken is expected to land in Beijing on Sunday and had planned to meet his opposite number Qin Gang as well as Wang Yi, China’s highest ranking diplomat.
A huge amount of painstaking diplomatic effort will have gone into making such a visit possible – the fact it was happening at all is a progress of sorts.
In recent days there has even been suggestions Mr Blinken might meet with President Xi Jinping himself.
If so, he would be the first US secretary of state granted this level of access in five years and it would be a major sign both sides are serious about attempting to smooth over their deeply damaged relations.
The Chinese leader and US President Joe Biden both recognised when they met at the G20 summit late last year that they need to do more to ensure that their distrust and competition does not descend into conflict and confrontation.
This visit was a clear part of that effort. But mutual recognition that spiralling tensions aren’t a good thing is not the same thing as the active rebuilding of trust.
This incident will likely be seen by the Americans as flying in the face of both. And there is, perhaps, an awareness here in Beijing of just how much jeopardy this incident poses to those fledgling efforts.
Indeed, at a regular news conference in Beijing on Friday, there was a clear desire on the Chinese part to contain speculation.
Foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said China was “verifying” the situation and added: “I would like to emphasise that until the facts are clarified, speculation and hype will not be helpful to the proper resolution of the issue.”
Given the low ebb of current relations between the two, Mr Blinken’s visit was not expected to deliver any breakthroughs. It was being framed more as a chance for both sides to restate their positions and red lines and keep the channels of dialogue open.
It will likely never be known if this spy balloon was purposefully scheduled ahead of the visit or if it’s just unfortunate timing, but if it forces Mr Blinken to cancel, the ramifications for the longer term project of containing deteriorating relations could be very serious indeed.
Details of those who have died and those who are missing after US flash floods are slowly emerging – with several young girls among those unaccounted for.
At least 69 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 11 girls and a counsellor from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.
As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.
Tributes to those who died, and appeals for those who are still missing, are now being shared.
Image: Officials said 27 girls from Camp Mystic were reported missing after the flash floods in Texas
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:35
Texas searches for missing children
Who are the victims?
Renee Smajstrla, eight
Image: Renee Smajstrla. Pic: Family handout
Renee’s uncle Shawn Salta confirmed the eight-year-old had died, and said she was one of 700 children staying at Camp Mystic.
“Renee has been found and while not the outcome we prayed for, the social media outreach likely assisted the first responders in helping to identify her so quickly,” he said.
“We are thankful she was with her friends and having the time of her life, as evidenced by this picture from yesterday.
“She will forever be living her best life at Camp Mystic.”
Sarah Marsh, eight
Image: Sarah Marsh. Pic: Family handout
Mountain Brook mayor Stewart Welch confirmed the death of eight-year-old Sarah, from Alabama, who was a pupil at Cherokee Bend Elementary.
“This is an unimaginable loss for her family, her school, and our entire community,” he said. “Sarah’s passing is a sorrow shared by all of us, and our hearts are with those who knew and loved her.
“As we grieve alongside the Marsh family, we also remember the many others affected by this tragedy.”
Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine
Image: Lila Bonner (left) and Eloise Peck. Pic: Family handout
Eloise’s mother Missy Peck told local broadcaster FOX4 that her daughter and Lila were best friends and cabinmates at Camp Mystic.
Writing about her daughter on Instagram, Ms Peck said: “She lost her life in the tragic flooding… our family is grieving and processing this unimaginable loss together.”
Lila’s family told NBC Dallas Fort Worth, a local affiliate network of Sky’s US partner network, that they were in “unimaginable grief”, and said: “We ache with all who loved her.”
Janie Hunt, nine
Image: Janie Hunt
Janie’s family confirmed her death to a reporter from NBC Dallas Fort Worth, who said “her mother tells me she’s devastated”.
Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic
Image: Richard ‘Dick’ Eastland, owner of Camp Mystic. Pic: Family handout
Kerr County judge Rob Kelly told the Washington Post that Mr Eastland, who owned the camp died in a helicopter on the way to a Houston hospital.
Local outlet The Kerrville Daily Times reported he was killed while trying to save the girls from the flash floods.
“It doesn’t surprise me at all that his last act of kindness and sacrifice was working to save the lives of campers,” guest columnist Paige Sumner said in the Daily Times’ tribute to Mr Eastland.
Blair and Brooke Harber, 13 and 11
Image: Blair and Brooke Harber. Pic: Family handout
RJ Harber told CNN his daughters died during flooding in Kerr County, saying Blair “was a gifted student and had a generous kind heart”.
He added that Brooke “was like a light in any room, people gravitated to her and she made them laugh and enjoy the moment”.
He also said both his parents were still missing.
Jane Ragsdale, owner of Heart O’ the Hills camp
Image: Jane Ragsdale. Pic: Heart O’ the Hills
On Heart O’ the Hills’s website, the camp confirmed it was “right in the path of the flood” along the Guadalupe River.
While there were no campers in residence, Jane Ragsdale died. The camp said: “We at the camp are stunned and deeply saddened by Jane’s death.
“She embodied the spirit of Heart O’ the Hills and was exactly the type of strong, joyful woman that the camp aimed to develop with the girls entrusted to us each summer.”
Julian Ryan, 27
Image: Julian Ryan. Pic: GoFundMe
Relatives of Mr Ryan told local news broadcaster KHOU 11 that he died saving his family from floodwaters in Texas Hill County.
They described how he tried to smash a window to help them escape the rising water, but it cut his arm and he bled out before help could arrive.
Questions have been raised over extreme weather warnings in Texas, after heavy rain caused fatal flash floods along the Guadalupe River.
At least 51 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with an unknown number of people – including 27 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County – still missing.
As rescue teams continue to search for the missing, local and federal officials have come under fire over their flood preparations and about why those along the river weren’t warned of the risks sooner.
Image: A map showing the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, which burst from heavy rain and caused flash flooding
Image: Campers embrace at a reunification area. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
What happened?
As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time.
Homes and vehicles were swept away by the downpour – equivalent to months’ worth of rain – while 27 girls staying at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river, went missing when the fast-rising floodwaters hit.
The death toll stands at: • At least 43 people, including 15 children and 28 adults, in Kerr County, • One person in Kendall County, • At least four people in Travis County, • At least two in Burnet County, • And one person in the city of San Angelo.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:20
House sweeps away in flash floods
What flood warnings were there?
Private forecasting company AccuWeather said it and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before it began, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.
The NWS also issued flash flood emergencies – a rare alert notifying of imminent danger – at 4.23am local time.
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
In a statement, AccuWeather said that “these warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety”.
It also called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings.
However, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management Nim Kidd said that one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain.
“It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,” he said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:35
Texas searches for missing children
Were they enough?
Locals have told various news agencies that while there had been phone alerts late into the night, forecasts headed into Friday evening did not predict the extreme conditions.
Christopher Flowers, who was staying at a friend’s house along the river when the flooding started, told the Reuters news agency: “What they need is some kind of external system, like a tornado warning that tells people to get out now.”
Kerrville resident Darryl Huffman told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that he did not believe the storm would pose such danger before its arrival.
“I looked out the window and it was barely sprinkling outside,” he said, “so I had no indication that the river was going to be right outside my driveway”.
Image: People climb over debris on a bridge atop the Guadalupe River in Ingram, Texas. Pic: AP
Image: A Sheriff’s deputy pauses while searching for the missing in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said it appeared evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities.
He said in a statement: “People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast.”
Separately, the NWS’s union told NBC News the agency’s offices in central Texas were well-staffed and had issued timely warnings, “giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met”.
What have officials said?
Local and federal officials have said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain and insisted that no one saw the flood potential coming.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official, said: “We know we get rain. We know the river rises. But nobody saw this coming.”
“We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States,” he said, adding: “We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what’s happened here. None whatsoever.”
Mr Kelly separately noted that while the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, “the public reeled at the cost”.
At a news conference with the Texas governor, Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem said on Saturday that “everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict” before saying “we have all wanted more time and more warning and more alerts and more notification” from the NWS.
She said a “moderate” flood watch issued on Thursday by the NWS had not accurately predicted the extreme rainfall and said the Trump administration was working to upgrade their technology.
Image: Kristi Noem and Texas governor Greg Abbott give a news briefing. Pic: AP
Will forecasting get better?
While Ms Noem said technology for the NWS would be upgraded, the White House has previously been criticised after Donald Trump‘s administration ordered 800 job cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – the parent organisation of the NWS.
A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress.
Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were “devastating”.
At least 51 people have died after heavy rain caused flash flooding, with water bursting from the banks of the Guadalupe River in Texas.
The overflowing water began sweeping into Kerr County and other areas around 4am local time on Friday, killing at least 43 people in the county.
This includes at least 15 children and 28 adults, with five children and 12 adults pending identification, Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said at a news conference.
In nearby Kendall County, one person has died. At least four people were killed in Travis County, while at least two people died in Burnet County. Another person has died in the city of San Angelo in Tom Green County.
Image: People comfort each other in Kerrville, Texas. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
Image: Large piles of debris in Kerrville, Texas, following the flooding. Pic: Reuters//Marco Bello
An unknown number of people remain missing, including 27 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County, a Christian summer camp along the Guadalupe River.
Rescuers have already saved hundreds of people and would work around the clock to find those still unaccounted for, Texas governor Greg Abbott said.
But as rescue teams are searching for the missing, Texas officials are facing scrutiny over their preparations and why residents and summer camps for children that are dotted along the river were not alerted sooner or told to evacuate.
More on Texas
Related Topics:
AccuWeather said the private forecasting company and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before the devastation, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.
Image: Debris on the banks of the Guadalupe River in Hunt. Pic: AP Photo/Julio Cortez
Image: An overturned vehicle is caught in debris along the Guadalupe River. Pic: AP
The NWS later issued flash flood emergencies – a rare alert notifying of imminent danger.
“These warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety,” AccuWeather said in a statement that called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings.
But one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain, said Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management.”It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,” he said.
Officials said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain, equivalent to months’ worth in a few short hours, insisting that no one saw the flood potential coming.
One river near Camp Mystic rose 22ft in two hours, according to Bob Fogarty, meteorologist with the NWS’s Austin/San Antonio office. The gauge failed after recording a level of 29.5ft.
Image: A wall is missing on a building at Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Image: Bedding items are seen outside sleeping quarters at Camp Mystic. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Image: A Sheriff’s deputy pauses while searching for the missing in Hunt, Texas.Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
“People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast,” Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said in a statement.
“We know we get rain. We know the river rises,” said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official. “But nobody saw this coming.”
Judge Kelly said the county considered a flood warning system along the Guadalupe River that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, before he was elected, but that the idea never got off the ground because “the public reeled at the cost”.
Image: A drone view of Comfort, Texas. Pic: Reuters
Image: Officials comb through the banks of the Guadalupe River in Hunt, Texas. Pic: AP/Julio Cortez
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was asked during a news conference on Saturday whether the flash flood warnings came through quickly enough: “We know that everyone wants more warning time, and that is why we are working to upgrade the technologies that have been neglected for far too long.”
Presidential cuts to climate and weather organisations have also been criticised in the wake of the floods after Donald Trump‘s administration ordered 800 job cuts at the science and climate organisation NOAA, the parent organisation of the NWS, which predicts and warns about extreme weather like the Texas floods.
A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress.
Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were “devastating”.
“Accurate weather forecasts matter. FEMA and NOAA matter. Because little girls’ lives matter,” said Frank Figliuzzi, a national security and intelligence analyst at Sky’s US partner organisation NBC News.