What are spy balloons and why could they play a key role in the future of aerial reconnaissance?
In an era of orbital satellites so advanced that they are able to make out objects half the size of cars from space, a spy balloon might seem like a bit of a relic.
They were a prominent tool for reconnaissance during the Cold War and were even used in a more basic form for intelligence gathering in the Napoleonic Wars more than 200 years ago.
But security experts say the balloons are just the “tip of a revolution” in the development and use of new high-altitude surveillance craft, with the UK even investing millions in a project to develop spy balloons last year.
It comes as the US military on Friday said it was tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon that has been flying over northwestern America in recent days.
A high-altitude balloon floats over Billings in Montana
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A senior defence official said the US has “very high confidence” it is a Chinese high-altitude balloon and was flying over sensitive sites to collect information, while China has not immediately denied the balloon belonged to them.
Beijing admitted that the balloon had come from China, but insisted it was a “civilian airship” that had strayed into American airspace and that it was for meteorological and other scientific research.
What are spy balloons?
The devices are lightweight balloons, filled with gas, usually helium, and attached to a piece of spying equipment such as a long-range camera.
They can be launched from the ground and are sent up into the air where they can reach heights of between 60,000ft (18,000m) and 150,000ft (45,000m), above the flight paths of commercial aircraft in an area known as “near space”.
Once in the air, they travel using a mixture of air currents and pressurised air pockets, which can act as a form of steering.
Why are they still useful in the satellite era?
According to defence and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke, the biggest advantage of spy balloons over satellites are that they can study an area over a longer period of time.
Professor Michael Clarke
“The advantage is they can stay in one place for a long time,” he told Sky News.
“Because of the way the Earth rotates, unless a satellite is over the Equator, you need three to five satellites going all the time to track the same spot.
“These balloons are also relatively cheap, and much easier to launch than a satellite.”
Will balloons continue to be used in future for spying?
Very much so, according to Professor Clarke.
Despite the wide use of satellite technology, countries including the UK are also focusing on the development and use of spycraft to operate in the upper atmosphere.
In August, it was announced the Ministry of Defence had agreed a £100m deal with US defence company Sierra Nevada to provide high-altitude unmanned balloons to be used for surveillance and reconnaissance.
Professor Clarke said: “(These balloons) are the very tip of the revolution for passive upper atmosphere aircraft.”
He said other defence firms, such as BAE, were working on ultralight solar-powered drones which are able to operate in the upper atmosphere and stay in place for up to 20 months.
Why have China used them now?
According to Professor Clarke, the use of these balloons, if indeed they were launched by China, will likely have been a message to the US following its decision to open new military bases in the Philippines.
“I think it’s a challenge,” he said.
“They (China) are signalling that if the US is going to come closer to them then they will be more aggressive with their surveillance.
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Could there be a US-China war?
Watch: Future Wars: Could there ever be a conflict between the US and China?
“It is also caused a political issue in the US now, because it will be seen as a sign of weakness not to shoot it down.
“This causes some embarrassment, but the US doesn’t need to respond.”
The balloon was spotted over Billings, Montana, on Wednesday – close to one of the US’s three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base.
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Mao Ning, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, says that those involved should be ‘cool-headed’
Military and defence leaders said they considered shooting the balloon out of the sky but decided against it due to the safety risk from falling debris.
Professor Clarke added: “I think the debris issue is a bit of an excuse. It was over one of the least densely populated areas of the US and if they needed to they could have asked everyone to stay inside.
“I don’t think they wanted to make it a bigger issue, because China are daring them to shoot it down and make it an international issue.”
The overnight events do not reflect well on President Biden.
He had signalled so emphatically just days ago for Israel not to retaliate.
“Take the win,” the American president told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Middle East latest – follow live
Benjamin Netanyahu has ignored Biden’s pleas. Pic: Reuters
It was a message made public and combined with back-channel briefings we were getting from the White House and the State Department.
Washington’s message to the Israeli government was that the spectacular failure of the Iranian attack, combined with the diplomatic first of having the Jordanians and the Saudis defending Israel, was a victory.
“Take it, don’t retaliate,” was the message they hoped would land. Uncontrolled escalation is just too much of a risk.
But Israel has been ignoring America for a few months now. Biden has frequently found the limits of his influence over Gaza.
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‘Blasts’ seen in sky above Iran – reports
As this week progressed, it became clear that on this issue too Netanyahu wasn’t going to be bent by Washington, London or anywhere else.
And there were plenty who questioned the wisdom of Biden’s diplomatic directive.
Israel had just faced the biggest aerial assault in its history by a nation committed to its destruction.
“Take the win”?! Really? To many, it sounded like an astonishing appeasement of Iran.
And so, as it dawned on diplomatic visitors to Israel this week that Netanyahu and his war cabinet were going to ignore Biden and hit back, the language began to shift.
“Don’t retaliate” became “minimise escalation”.
“We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible,” UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron said after meeting Netanyahu on Tuesday.
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Cameron: Israel’s response ‘should be smart’
My understanding is that Western diplomats were given a heads-up by Israel that it was hitting back overnight and with some detail on the type and location of the targets.
But this past week raises questions about the Biden administration’s influence and its strategy.
Biden’s call for no retaliation was very public and echoed by allies. It was driven by the real fear of uncontrolled escalation.
But was it diplomatically smart to make the call so public? Some are asking if that didn’t just undermine Israel’s ability to reestablish deterrence.
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Privately call for restraint, maybe. But why publicly?
But more than that, did the public “don’t do it” messaging just expose President Biden to failure and weakness when his directive was simply ignored by Israel?
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Brace now for the next move.
Perhaps a steady de-escalation through a series of strikes on targets each less significant than the one before it – both sides saving face, both claiming deterrence.
Such is the madness of conflict.
Donald Trump described the hush money case against him as a “mess” after the jury who will decide his fate has been selected.
Leaving the court in New York after proceedings were adjourned for the day, Trump addressed reporters, saying he was supposed to be in states like Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina as part of his campaign for the 2024 presidential election.
“[But instead] I’ve been here all day,” he said, labelling the trial as “unfair”.
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Trump held up a stack of news stories and editorials that he said were critical of the case while he continued railing against the trial.
“The whole thing is a mess,” he said.
It comes as all 12 jurors have been seated in the first criminal case against a former US president.
Pic: AP
Members of the jury include a sales professional, a software engineer, an English teacher and multiple lawyers.
Sky News’ US partner network, NBC News reported there are seven men and five women on the jury.
It comes after lawyers grilled hundreds of potential jurors asking questions on everything from their hobbies and social media posts to their opinion of the former president.
More than half of a second group of prospective jurors were dismissed by Judge Juan Merchan on Thursday after most said they doubted their ability to be fair and impartial.
One juror was also dismissed after she said she “slept on it overnight” and woke up with concerns about her ability to be fair and impartial in the case.
The challenge now is to select six alternate jury members before the trial can move to opening statements, with Mr Merchan hopeful this will be completed on Friday.
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Trump is accused of criminally altering business records to cover up a $130,000 (£104,200) payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, real name Stephanie Clifford, during his 2016 election campaign.
Ms Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal, who was paid $150,000 (£120,000), both claim to have had affairs with Trump.
Stormy Daniels. Pic: AP
His lawyers say the payment was meant to spare himself and his family embarrassment, not to help him win the election.
Trump faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. He could get up to four years in prison if convicted.
The former president faces two other criminal trials accusing him of trying to subvert his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden, and another that accuses him of mishandling classified information after he left the White House in 2021.
He has pleaded not guilty to all charges against him.
The world’s first known combat between a human pilot and a fighter jet controlled by AI has been carried out in California, the US military has said.
In a drill over Edwards Air Force Base, the pair of F-16 fighter jets flew at speeds of up to 1,200mph and got as close as 600 metres during aerial combat, also known as dogfighting.
One was manned, while the other jet was a modified version of the F-16, called the X-62A, or VISTA (variable in-flight simulator test aircraft).
The AI-run plane in action. Pic: Kyle Brasier/USAF
While in flight, the AI algorithm relies on analysing historical data to make decisions for present and future situations, according to the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which carried out the test.
This process is called “machine learning”, and has for years been tested in simulators on the ground, said DARPA, a research and development agency of the US Department of Defense.
In 2020, so-called “AI agents” defeated human pilots in simulations in all five of their match-ups – but the technology needed to be run for real in the air.
Pilots were on board the X-62A in case of emergency, but they didn’t need to revert controls at any point during the test dogfight, which took place in September last year and was announced this week.
The result represents a “transformational moment in aerospace history”, DARPA said in a statement.
It did not reveal which aircraft won the dogfight.
The two planes near each other during the drill. Pic: DARPA/YouTube
“The potential for autonomous air-to-air combat has been imaginable for decades, but the reality has remained a distant dream up until now, said Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall.
“In 2023, the X-62A broke one of the most significant barriers in combat aviation. This is a transformational moment, all made possible by breakthrough accomplishments of the X-62A ACE team.”
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Colonel James Valpiani, a commandant at the US Air Force test pilot school. said: “Dogfighting is a perfect case for the application – machine learning.
“Dogfighting is extremely dangerous. So, if machine learning can operate effectively in an environment as dangerous as air-to-air combat, it has great potential to earn the trust of humans as we look to applications that are less dangerous but equally complex.”
He added: “The X-62A is an incredible platform, not just for research and advancing the state of tests, but also for preparing the next generation of test leaders.
“When ensuring the capability in front of them is safe, efficient, effective and responsible, industry can look to the results of what the X-62A ACE team has done as a paradigm shift.
“We’ve fundamentally changed the conversation by showing this can be executed safely and responsibly.”
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