Amazon CEO Andy Jassy speaks at the Bloomberg Technology Summit in San Francisco on June 8, 2022.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
As growth in traditional tech equipment and software slowed to a trickle in recent years, cloud computing gobbled up spending, reflecting a dramatic change in how companies were choosing to run applications and store data.
But in the past two weeks, the biggest names in cloud infrastructure issued clear warnings to suggest that the frenetic expansion of the past half-decade is cooling. Historically high inflation and a steady increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve have led businesses to curtail spending and seek ways to get more out of their existing infrastructure.
Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet, the three leaders in the market for cloud-based storage and servers, all reported deceleration in their respective businesses. On Thursday, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, which also includes Workplace productivity software, showed revenue for the fourth quarter that was below analysts’ estimates.
“In Q4, we saw slower growth of consumption as customers optimized GCP cost, reflecting the macro backdrop,” Ruth Porat, Alphabet’s chief financial officer, told analysts on the earnings call.
Google Cloud revenue growth slowed to 32% in the fourth quarter from almost 38% in the third period. Revenue of $7.32 billion trailed analysts estimates of $7.43 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Amazon, which pioneered the market over 15 years ago and maintains a commanding lead, said AWS revenue growth decelerated to 20% from 27%. The unit notched sales of $21.4 billion, while analysts were projecting $21.87 billion. As recently as 2018, AWS was growing over 45%.
Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s finance chief, told analysts that large companies worked with AWS in the fourth quarter to trim their spending because of the difficult economy, a trend that started in the middle of the third quarter. He’s not expecting it to reverse anytime soon.
“As we look ahead, we expect these optimization efforts will continue to be a headwind to AWS growth in at least the next couple of quarters,” Olsavsky said.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who started AWS with company founder Jeff Bezos and ran the division until taking the helm at the parent company in 2021, spoke up later on the call to tout the robust pipeline of cloud migrations. However, according to a regulatory filing, customers are showing less confidence in longer-term deals. Amazon reported $110.4 billion in commitments on contracts with original terms longer than one year. That was up 37% from a prior year, a decline from 57% growth in the third quarter.
Analysts at Bank of America lowered their forecast for AWS, and now expect growth for the year of 11% instead of 15%. That would be down from nearly 29% in 2022.
“We see LT cloud trajectory as bent and not broken,” wrote the analysts, who have a buy rating on the stock.
Results from Alphabet and Amazon follow Microsoft’s report last week. Microsoft’s Azure unit is second in cloud infrastructure to AWS.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella speaks at the company’s Ignite Spotlight event in Seoul on Nov. 15, 2022.
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Microsoft said its Azure and other cloud services revenue growth slowed to 31% from 35%, though the company doesn’t disclose the size of the business in dollars.
On the earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said growth in Azure consumption moderated in December. The company expects even slower Azure growth in the first quarter as organizations look for opportunities to run their existing applications in a more cost-effective manner.
CEO Satya Nadella acknowledged that trend, but said it’s not permanent.
“At some point, the optimizations will end,” Nadella said on the earnings call. “In fact, the money that they save in any optimization of any workload is what they’ll plough into new workloads, and those workloads will start ramping up.”
Nadella’s view is supported by at least some industry experts. Tech research firm Gartner is expecting the category to grow overall by 26.8% in the full year, compared with 25.9% in 2022. The Gartner prediction across all of IT is for revenue growth of 2.4%.
Artificial intelligence robot looking at futuristic digital data display.
Yuichiro Chino | Moment | Getty Images
Artificial intelligence is projected to reach $4.8 trillion in market value by 2033, but the technology’s benefits remain highly concentrated, according to the U.N. Trade and Development agency.
In a report released on Thursday, UNCTAD said the AI market cap would roughly equate to the size of Germany’s economy, with the technology offering productivity gains and driving digital transformation.
However, the agency also raised concerns about automation and job displacement, warning that AI could affect 40% of jobs worldwide. On top of that, AI is not inherently inclusive, meaning the economic gains from the tech remain “highly concentrated,” the report added.
“The benefits of AI-driven automation often favour capital over labour, which could widen inequality and reduce the competitive advantage of low-cost labour in developing economies,” it said.
The potential for AI to cause unemployment and inequality is a long-standing concern, with the IMF making similar warnings over a year ago. In January, The World Economic Forum released findings that as many as 41% of employers were planning on downsizing their staff in areas where AI could replicate them.
However, the UNCTAD report also highlights inequalities between nations, with U.N. data showing that 40% of global corporate research and development spending in AI is concentrated among just 100 firms, mainly those in the U.S. and China.
Furthermore, it notes that leading tech giants, such as Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft — companies that stand to benefit from the AI boom — have a market value that rivals the gross domestic product of the entire African continent.
This AI dominance at national and corporate levels threatens to widen those technological divides, leaving many nations at risk of lagging behind, UNCTAD said. It noted that 118 countries — mostly in the Global South — are absent from major AI governance discussions.
UN recommendations
But AI is not just about job replacement, the report said, noting that it can also “create new industries and and empower workers” — provided there is adequate investment in reskilling and upskilling.
But in order for developing nations not to fall behind, they must “have a seat at the table” when it comes to AI regulation and ethical frameworks, it said.
In its report, UNCTAD makes a number of recommendations to the international community for driving inclusive growth. They include an AI public disclosure mechanism, shared AI infrastructure, the use of open-source AI models and initiatives to share AI knowledge and resources.
Open-source generally refers to software in which the source code is made freely available on the web for possible modification and redistribution.
“AI can be a catalyst for progress, innovation, and shared prosperity – but only if countries actively shape its trajectory,” the report concludes.
“Strategic investments, inclusive governance, and international cooperation are key to ensuring that AI benefits all, rather than reinforcing existing divides.”
Altimeter Capital CEO Brad Gerstner said Thursday that he’s moving out of the “bomb shelter” with Nvidia and into a position of safety, expecting that the chipmaker is positioned to withstand President Donald Trump’s widespread tariffs.
“The growth and the demand for GPUs is off the charts,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report,” referring to Nvidia’s graphics processing units that are powering the artificial intelligence boom. He said investors just need to listen to commentary from OpenAI, Google and Elon Musk.
President Trump announced an expansive and aggressive “reciprocal tariff” policy in a ceremony at the White House on Wednesday. The plan established a 10% baseline tariff, though many countries like China, Vietnam and Taiwan are subject to steeper rates. The announcement sent stocks tumbling on Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down more than 5%, headed for its worst day since 2022.
The big reason Nvidia may be better positioned to withstand Trump’s tariff hikes is because semiconductors are on the list of exceptions, which Gerstner called a “wise exception” due to the importance of AI.
Nvidia’s business has exploded since the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, and annual revenue has more than doubled in each of the past two fiscal years. After a massive rally, Nvidia’s stock price has dropped by more than 20% this year and was down almost 7% on Thursday.
Gerstner is concerned about the potential of a recession due to the tariffs, but is relatively bullish on Nvidia, and said the “negative impact from tariffs will be much less than in other areas.”
He said it’s key for the U.S. to stay competitive in AI. And while the company’s chips are designed domestically, they’re manufactured in Taiwan “because they can’t be fabricated in the U.S.” Higher tariffs would punish companies like Meta and Microsoft, he said.
“We’re in a global race in AI,” Gerstner said. “We can’t hamper our ability to win that race.”
YouTube on Thursday announced new video creation tools for Shorts, its short-form video feed that competes against TikTok.
The features come at a time when TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance, is at risk of an effective ban in the U.S. if it’s not sold to an American owner by April 5.
Among the new tools is an updated video editor that allows creators to make precise adjustments and edits, a feature that automatically syncs video cuts to the beat of a song and AI stickers.
The creator tools will become available later this spring, said YouTube, which is owned by Google.
Along with the new features, YouTube last week said it was changing the way view counts are tabulated on Shorts. Under the new guidelines, Shorts views will count the number of times the video is played or replayed with no minimum watch time requirement.
Previously, views were only counted if a video was played for a certain number of seconds. This new tabulation method is similar to how views are counted on TikTok and Meta’s Reels, and will likely inflate view counts.
“We got this feedback from creators that this is what they wanted. It’s a way for them to better understand when their Shorts have been seen,” YouTube Chief Product Officer Johanna Voolich said in a YouTube video. “It’s useful for creators who post across multiple platforms.”