What we learned about the US economy this past week

Published

2 years ago

February 4, 2023

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A recent wave of surprisingly solid economic data reveals that the U.S. economy is in a far stronger position than most economists expected.

Friday’s stunning jobs report, coupled with a surprising jump in job openings, has forced experts to recalibrate their expectations for an economy being slowed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.

Here’s what we learned about the U.S. economy over the past week: Companies are still eager to hire A hiring sign is displayed in a window of a store in Manhattan on December 02, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The U.S. added 517,000 jobs in January, blowing away analyst projections, while the unemployment rate dipped to 3.4 percent, the lowest in 54 years. Economists had expected unemployment to rise.

Several sectors that had been seeing an apparent slowdown, including retail and construction, added jobs at a faster rate than last year’s monthly average. The average workweek totaled 34.7 hours, the highest since March 2022, indicating massive demand for workers.

That means the nation clearly isn’t in a recession, despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to weaken the labor market by hiking employers’ borrowing costs.

“For now, it’s a good sign that the Fed hasn’t broken the economy yet. The best-case scenario is a soft landing, and it’s still in play,” Callie Cox, U.S. Investment Analyst at eToro, said in a note.

In another surprising figure, Labor Department data released Wednesday showed that the U.S. had a near-record 11 million job openings at the end of December, up from 10.4 million the month prior. Economists expected openings to fall on a month-to-month basis.

The shortfall of workers, driven in part by 2 million early retirements during the pandemic, boosts workers’ leverage over wages but also reduces the supply of certain goods and services, leading to higher prices.

Lisa Lighter, 52, told The Hill she struggles to find workers for her small business, A Day In Our Shoes, which helps Philadelphia-area parents secure critical services for their disabled children. The labor shortage forces countless parents with a disabled child who go without those services, Lighter said.

“I work long hours myself because finding qualified help to do my administrative work is challenging. Many never even return emails, and I pay above market rate,” she said.

Friday’s booming jobs report comes with caveats. Economists expect the jobs number to be revised down because companies added fewer holiday employees this year and the U.S. experienced an unusually warm January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually accounts for a rush of post-holiday layoffs and lower economic activity during a cold but uneventful month by adjusting January jobs gains higher.

“The BLS jobs report for January was VERY strong. So strong, I don’t believe it. The BLS is likely having measurement issues. Most likely, difficulty seasonally adjusting the data, which is especially important in January,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi wrote on Twitter Friday. Layoffs are lower than the headlines make it seem A sign is shown on a Google building at their campus in Mountain View, Calif., on Sept. 24, 2019. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)

Some of the nation’s largest and most well-known companies, including Google, Microsoft and FedEx, announced mass layoffs in January, fueling recession fears.

But the data shows that most companies aren’t letting workers go.

The number of Americans filing unemployment claims dropped to a nine-month low last week, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That’s an indicator that the economy is still growing amid the highly publicized job reductions.

The persistent shortfall of workers means that those who are laid off can typically find employment elsewhere, and quickly.

A survey from tech recruiting and staffing firm Andiamo found that 74 percent of tech workers who were laid off between September and November have already landed new jobs. Thirty percent of those fired workers jumped over to new industries such as finance and media.

“Despite the large layoffs and firings in the tech sector over the past year, the data strongly implies that these workers with in-demand skills are quickly finding employment,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at auditing firm RSM, said in a note. Fed rate hikes are making a serious dent on inflation A customer looks at refrigerated items at a Grocery Outlet store in Pleasanton, Calif.,. on Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell can finally exhale.

After six straight months of declines in both the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the two primary ways of tracking inflation — Fed officials are willing to acknowledge that their rate hikes are working.

“We actually see disinflation in the goods sector,” Powell said Wednesday, after the Fed issued its smallest interest rate hike since March 2021.

“We note that when we say inflation is coming down that this is good,” he continued.

Powell’s remarks may seem like little more than a basic observation. But his willingness to acknowledge progress against inflation — however slight — is a sign that the Fed feels increasingly confident in its fight to bring down price growth.

The Fed has been reluctant to declare victory with the PCE price index still up 5 percent on the year in December, well above the Fed’s annual inflation target of 2 percent but down from a peak of 7 percent in June. Pence: ‘We’ve got to have a conversation’ about reforming Social Security What are spy balloons and what is their purpose?

Powell added that while prices for goods have fallen steadily, prices for basic services are still rising and may continue to do so as long as the labor market holds strong.

The staggering January gain of 517,000 jobs might be a cause for concern for the Fed, even though wage growth continued to slow down. While Fed officials are optimistic they can quash inflation without derailing the job market, they could face pressure to keep cranking up rates.

“If the central bank thinks that the low unemployment rate will necessarily push up wage growth and inflation moving forward, this strong report may darken the economic outlook. But if instead, Chair Powell and colleagues are heartened by tempering wage growth, then the odds that the economy can avoid a recession increase,” wrote Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, in a Friday analysis.

Politics

Ukraine presses Russia for 30-day ceasefire as Starmer among leaders in Kyiv for talks

Published

27 mins ago

May 10, 2025

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Ukraine presses Russia for 30-day ceasefire as Starmer among leaders in Kyiv for talks

Sir Keir Starmer has joined other European leaders in Kyiv to press Russia to agree an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

The prime minister is attending the summit alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

It is the first time the leaders of the four countries have travelled to Ukraine at the same time – arriving in the capital by train – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

It comes after Donald Trump called for “ideally” a 30-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, and warned that if any pause in the fighting is not respected “the US and its partners will impose further sanctions”.

Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Samantha Washington the European leaders are “rowing in behind” the US president, who referred to his “European allies” for the first time in this context in a post on his Truth Social platform.

“So this meeting is all about heaping pressure on the Russians to go along with the American proposal,” he said.

“It’s the closest the Europeans and the US have been for about three months on this issue.”

Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine and its allies are ready for a “full, unconditional ceasefire” for at least 30 days starting on Monday.

Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement.

European leaders show solidarity – but await Trump’s backing

Dominic Waghorn

International affairs editor

@DominicWaghorn

The hope is Russia’s unilateral ceasefire, such as it’s worth, can be extended for a month to give peace a chance.

But ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian sources told Sky News they are still waiting for President Donald Trump to put his full weight behind the idea.

The US leader has said a 30-day ceasefire would be ideal, but has shown no willingness yet for putting pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin to agree.

The Russians say a ceasefire can only come after a peace deal can be reached.

European allies are still putting their hopes in a negotiated end to the war despite Moscow’s intransigence and President Trump’s apparent one-sided approach favouring Russia.

Ukrainians would prefer to be given enough economic and military support to secure victory.

But in over three years, despite its massive economic superiority to Russia and its access to more advanced military technology, Europe has not found the political will to give Kyiv the means to win.

Until they do, Vladimir Putin may decide it is still worth pursuing this war despite its massive cost in men and materiel on both sides.

“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.

“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”

The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.

But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.

“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.

“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”

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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.

They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.

Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for a coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.

World

Terror group supporters posted on TikTok from site targeted in Indian airstrikes

Published

27 mins ago

May 10, 2025

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Terror group supporters posted on TikTok from site targeted in Indian airstrikes

Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.

Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.

Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.

Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.

The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.

‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.

In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.

The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.

India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.

Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.

LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.

LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.

Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.

Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”

Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.

TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.

Many of the accounts are linked to each other.

Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”

Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.

One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.

Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.

In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.

The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.

Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”

Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.

India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.

MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”

Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”

Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.

On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.