What we learned about the US economy this past week

Published

2 years ago

February 4, 2023

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A recent wave of surprisingly solid economic data reveals that the U.S. economy is in a far stronger position than most economists expected.

Friday’s stunning jobs report, coupled with a surprising jump in job openings, has forced experts to recalibrate their expectations for an economy being slowed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.

Here’s what we learned about the U.S. economy over the past week: Companies are still eager to hire A hiring sign is displayed in a window of a store in Manhattan on December 02, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The U.S. added 517,000 jobs in January, blowing away analyst projections, while the unemployment rate dipped to 3.4 percent, the lowest in 54 years. Economists had expected unemployment to rise.

Several sectors that had been seeing an apparent slowdown, including retail and construction, added jobs at a faster rate than last year’s monthly average. The average workweek totaled 34.7 hours, the highest since March 2022, indicating massive demand for workers.

That means the nation clearly isn’t in a recession, despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to weaken the labor market by hiking employers’ borrowing costs.

“For now, it’s a good sign that the Fed hasn’t broken the economy yet. The best-case scenario is a soft landing, and it’s still in play,” Callie Cox, U.S. Investment Analyst at eToro, said in a note.

In another surprising figure, Labor Department data released Wednesday showed that the U.S. had a near-record 11 million job openings at the end of December, up from 10.4 million the month prior. Economists expected openings to fall on a month-to-month basis.

The shortfall of workers, driven in part by 2 million early retirements during the pandemic, boosts workers’ leverage over wages but also reduces the supply of certain goods and services, leading to higher prices.

Lisa Lighter, 52, told The Hill she struggles to find workers for her small business, A Day In Our Shoes, which helps Philadelphia-area parents secure critical services for their disabled children. The labor shortage forces countless parents with a disabled child who go without those services, Lighter said.

“I work long hours myself because finding qualified help to do my administrative work is challenging. Many never even return emails, and I pay above market rate,” she said.

Friday’s booming jobs report comes with caveats. Economists expect the jobs number to be revised down because companies added fewer holiday employees this year and the U.S. experienced an unusually warm January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually accounts for a rush of post-holiday layoffs and lower economic activity during a cold but uneventful month by adjusting January jobs gains higher.

“The BLS jobs report for January was VERY strong. So strong, I don’t believe it. The BLS is likely having measurement issues. Most likely, difficulty seasonally adjusting the data, which is especially important in January,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi wrote on Twitter Friday. Layoffs are lower than the headlines make it seem A sign is shown on a Google building at their campus in Mountain View, Calif., on Sept. 24, 2019. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)

Some of the nation’s largest and most well-known companies, including Google, Microsoft and FedEx, announced mass layoffs in January, fueling recession fears.

But the data shows that most companies aren’t letting workers go.

The number of Americans filing unemployment claims dropped to a nine-month low last week, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That’s an indicator that the economy is still growing amid the highly publicized job reductions.

The persistent shortfall of workers means that those who are laid off can typically find employment elsewhere, and quickly.

A survey from tech recruiting and staffing firm Andiamo found that 74 percent of tech workers who were laid off between September and November have already landed new jobs. Thirty percent of those fired workers jumped over to new industries such as finance and media.

“Despite the large layoffs and firings in the tech sector over the past year, the data strongly implies that these workers with in-demand skills are quickly finding employment,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at auditing firm RSM, said in a note. Fed rate hikes are making a serious dent on inflation A customer looks at refrigerated items at a Grocery Outlet store in Pleasanton, Calif.,. on Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell can finally exhale.

After six straight months of declines in both the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the two primary ways of tracking inflation — Fed officials are willing to acknowledge that their rate hikes are working.

“We actually see disinflation in the goods sector,” Powell said Wednesday, after the Fed issued its smallest interest rate hike since March 2021.

“We note that when we say inflation is coming down that this is good,” he continued.

Powell’s remarks may seem like little more than a basic observation. But his willingness to acknowledge progress against inflation — however slight — is a sign that the Fed feels increasingly confident in its fight to bring down price growth.

The Fed has been reluctant to declare victory with the PCE price index still up 5 percent on the year in December, well above the Fed’s annual inflation target of 2 percent but down from a peak of 7 percent in June. Pence: ‘We’ve got to have a conversation’ about reforming Social Security What are spy balloons and what is their purpose?

Powell added that while prices for goods have fallen steadily, prices for basic services are still rising and may continue to do so as long as the labor market holds strong.

The staggering January gain of 517,000 jobs might be a cause for concern for the Fed, even though wage growth continued to slow down. While Fed officials are optimistic they can quash inflation without derailing the job market, they could face pressure to keep cranking up rates.

“If the central bank thinks that the low unemployment rate will necessarily push up wage growth and inflation moving forward, this strong report may darken the economic outlook. But if instead, Chair Powell and colleagues are heartened by tempering wage growth, then the odds that the economy can avoid a recession increase,” wrote Nick Bunker, head of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, in a Friday analysis.

UK

How Britain’s most notorious gangster turned up at a charity lunch to fact-check a retired detective’s talk

Published

29 mins ago

July 5, 2025

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How Britain's most notorious gangster turned up at a charity lunch to fact-check a retired detective's talk

Britain’s most notorious gangster and the detective who pursued him have been involved in a bizarre confrontation…at a charity lunch.

Former Detective Superintendent Ian Brown was at a Kent golf club and about to give a talk on the infamous £26m Brink’s-Mat gold robbery when he was summoned from the stage by officials.

Mr Brown, who appeared on the award-winning Sky News StoryCast podcast The Hunt For The Brink’s-Mat Gold in 2019, said: “I go outside and they say ‘he’s here’ and I say ‘who’s here’ and they say that table over there in the corner, that’s Kenny Noye with a baseball cap pulled down over his head.”

Noye stabbed to death an undercover policeman during the Brink’s-Mat investigation, but was acquitted of murder, though he was jailed for handling the stolen gold.

After his release, he used a knife again in the M25 road-rage murder of motorist Stephen Cameron.

“They said what are we going to do?” said Mr Brown.

“I said are you serving food? Well, just use plastic knives.”

Although Mr Brown had not personally arrested Noye over Brink’s-Mat he had identified him as a suspect months after the robbery.

Years later he met him during an ill-fated TV interview in which he quizzed him about his role in the robbery.

He said: “He told me everything I wanted to know except the truth. He still insists he had nothing to do with it.”

The interview was never broadcast after the prison authorities threatened to send Noye back to jail for a breach of his parole.

Mr Brown, 86, said: “I went over to him and said ‘thanks for coming, nice of you to pop in’, but I don’t believe you’ve turned up with your sons and grandkids to listen to me telling how you killed a police officer.

“And he said ‘I want to make sure you don’t say I’ve been dealing drugs’ and I said ‘I’ve never said that Kenny’.”

The retired detective told Noye he wasn’t going to change his presentation just because he was there.

“He said ‘mate, I wouldn’t expect you to and I’ll come up [on stage] if you want me to’.

“Can you think how he’s turned up with his family to listen to somebody talking about you killing the police? Now, you put logic on that.”

The bizarre story emerged when I rang Mr Brown after I’d been told about the meeting.

I also wanted to ask him about the recent BBC hit drama series The Gold which retold the story of the Brink’s-Mat heist at Heathrow Airport in 1983.

“It was an absolute shambles, far too much dramatic licence and the real story was so much better,” said the ex-detective, whose job had been to follow the trail of the 6,800 gold bars to the US and the Caribbean.

He said he chatted to one of the show’s writers for a long time in a phone call but then heard no more.

“They invented people, changed a bit here and there and made it politically correct in so many ways. I’m just very sad that that is what people will believe.

“And I couldn’t work out who my character was supposed to be. I could have been one of the female cops.”

He also criticised the portrayal of Noye, now 78, as a likeable jack-the-lad character when the truth about the double killer with a volatile temper was quite different.

Sports

L.A. routed 18-1 in worst loss at Dodger Stadium

Published

46 mins ago

July 5, 2025

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L.A. routed 18-1 in worst loss at Dodger Stadium

ESPN News Services

Jul 5, 2025, 01:32 AM ET

LOS ANGELES — The Los Angeles Dodgers suffered their worst loss ever in Dodger Stadium, an 18-1 blowout at the hands of the Houston Astros on Friday night in the series opener of a matchup between division leaders.

The 17-run loss marked the Dodgers’ largest margin of defeat at home since the team moved to Dodger Stadium in 1962, and the franchise’s worst home loss since July 3, 1947, when Brooklyn lost 19-2 to the New York Giants.

Jose Altuve homered twice while reaching base five times and driving in five runs for the Astros, who held the defending World Series champion Dodgers to six hits including Will Smith‘s solo homer.

“That was one you want to flush as soon as possible,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “I don’t think there were many positives from this night.”

Dodgers fans relentlessly booed Altuve throughout his at-bats, chanting, “Cheater! Cheater!” He’s one of two players, along with Lance McCullers Jr., remaining from Houston’s 2017 team that beat the Dodgers in the World Series. It later came out that the Astros were stealing signs with the help of video and relaying pitches to batters by banging on a trash can.

The AL West-leading Astros scored 10 runs in the sixth, highlighted by Victor Caratini‘s grand slam and Altuve’s three-run shot. It was the most runs given up in an inning by the Dodgers since April 23, 1999, when they allowed 11 to St. Louis.

McCullers (2-3) allowed one run and four hits in six innings of his second start since returning from a sprained right foot. He struck out four.

Isaac Paredes hit his first career leadoff homer on the first pitch of the game from rookie Ben Casparius. Altuve doubled and scored on Christian Walker‘s RBI single for a 2-0 lead.

Jake Meyers doubled leading off the third and scored on Altuve’s 14th homer. Rookie Cam Smith doubled and scored on Walker’s 417-foot shot halfway up the left-field pavilion to cap four straight hits given up by Casparius and extend Houston’s lead to 6-1.

“I don’t think Ben was good tonight,” Roberts said. “It seemed like they were on everything he threw up there.”

The Astros broke it open in the sixth. Smith had a bases-loaded RBI single, reliever Noah Davis hit Walker with two strikes on him to force in a run and Caratini hit his slam with no outs. Meyers added an RBI single, and Altuve hit his second homer of the night.

Casparius allowed six runs and nine hits in three innings and struck out three.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Sports

Raleigh ties M’s record with 35 HRs before break

Published

46 mins ago

July 5, 2025

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Raleigh ties M's record with 35 HRs before break

ESPN News Services

Jul 4, 2025, 08:14 PM ET

SEATTLE — Cal Raleigh hit his 34th and 35th home runs to set a career high and match Ken Griffey Jr.’s Seattle record for homers before the All-Star break, helping the Mariners beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-0 on Friday.

Raleigh, the major league leader in home runs, turned on a fastball from Bailey Falter (6-4) in the first inning and walloped it well past the wall in left. The exit velocity on the two-run shot was logged at 115.2 mph, per Statcast, making it the hardest-hit ball of his career.

Raleigh topped his previous career high for homers, set last season, in the sixth with a solo shot that chased Falter. The Mariners mustered only one other hit off the left-hander, but it was also a home run courtesy of Randy Arozarena in the fourth inning.

Raleigh’s 35 homers are tied for the fifth most in MLB history before the All-Star break (since 1933), matching Griffey in 1998 and Luis Gonzalez in 2001. Barry Bonds holds the record with 39 at the break in 2001.

Raleigh said he was honored to tie Griffey, whom he called the face of the Mariners.

“To be mentioned with that name, somebody that’s just iconic, a legend, first-ballot Hall of Famer, I’m just blessed,” Raleigh said. “Trying to do the right thing and trying to keep it rolling. If I can try to be like that guy, it’s a good guy to look up to.”

Raleigh is on pace to hit 65 home runs this season, which would break New York Yankees star Aaron Judge‘s American League record of 62, set in 2022.

Manager Dan Wilson, who was a teammate of Griffey Jr.’s in 1998, tried to put Raleigh’s fast start to 2025 in perspective.

“It’s remarkable. It feels like he hits a home run every game, that’s what it feels like,” Wilson said. “And I can remember feeling it as a player, that [Griffey] just felt like he hit a home run every day. Again, that’s the consistency that [Raleigh] has shown. It hasn’t been a streak where he has hit a bunch of home runs in a short amount of time. It’s been kind of 10 per month.”

A switch-hitter, Raleigh has more home runs as a left-handed hitter and as a right-handed hitter than anyone else on the Mariners: He has 21 from the left side and 14 from the right. Arozarena ranks second on Seattle with 13 homers this season.

The Mariners play eight more games before the All-Star break.

The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.