Sex offenders could face chemical castration and thousands of offenders will be released after serving a third of their jail term, under plans proposed in a sentencing policy review set to be accepted by ministers.

The independent review, led by the former justice secretary David Gauke, was commissioned by the government amid an overcrowding crisis in prisons in England and Wales.

It has made a series of recommendations with the aim of reducing the prison population by 9,800 people by 2028.

The key proposal, which it is understood the government will implement, is a “progression model” – which would see offenders who behave well in jail only serve a third of their term in custody, before being released.

The measure will apply to people serving standard determinate sentences, which is the most common type of jail term, being served by the majority of offenders.

It will be based on sentence length, rather than offence type. That means sex offenders and domestic abusers serving sentences of under four years, could all be eligible for early release.

The policy will mean inmates serve only a third of their sentence in prison, a third on licence in the community, with the remaining portion under no probation supervision at all.

If the offender committed further offences in the “at risk” – or final – stages of their sentence, once out of prison, they would be sent back to jail to serve the remainder of the original sentence, plus time inside jail for the new offence.

Chemical castration trial could be extended

The government will also further the use of medication to suppress the sexual drive of sex offenders, which is currently being piloted in southwest England.

The review recommended that chemical castration “may assist in management of suitable sex offenders both in prison and in the community”.

Ministers are to announce plans for a nationwide rollout, and will first expand the use of the medication to 20 prisons across England.

The justice secretary is also considering whether to make castration mandatory. It’s currently voluntary.

Violent offenders who are serving sentences of four years or more could be released on licence after spending half of their sentence behind bars. This could be extended if they do not comply with prison rules. These prisoners would then be supervised in the community until 80% of their sentence.

Domestic abuse commissioner criticises plans

In response to the review, the police have warned: “Out of prison should not mean out of control.”

“If we are going to have fewer people in prison, we need to ensure that we collectively have the resources and powers to manage the risk offenders pose outside of prison,” said Chief Constable Sacha Hatchett at the National Police Chiefs Council.

The domestic abuse commissioner for England and Wales, Nicole Jacobs, said adopting the measures would amount to “watering down” the criminal justice system.

“By adopting these measures the government will be sending a clear message to domestic abusers that they can now offend with little consequence,” she said.

In a set of proposals considered to be the biggest overhaul of sentencing power laws since the 1990s, judges could be given more flexibility to punish lower level offenders with bans on football or driving.

The review has also recommended that short sentences should only be used in “exceptional circumstances”, suggesting they are “associated with higher proven reoffending” and “fall short in providing meaningful rehabilitation to offenders”.

The Howard League for Penal Reform has welcomed the proposals as a “good start”.

“This is a vital review that makes the case for change by focusing on the evidence on what will reduce reoffending and prevent more people becoming victims of crime,” said chief executive Andrea Coomber.

David Gauke’s review has called on the government to “invest” in a probation service that is “under significant strain”, as its proposals recommend a larger number of offenders should be punished and supervised in the community.

“Tagging can be a useful way to monitor offenders and identify escalating risks,” it said.

The government is set to invest a further £700m in the probation service and introduce a mass expansion of tagging technology, where tens of thousands of criminals will be monitored at any one time, creating a “prison outside of a prison”, with the help of US tech companies.

‘Overriding concerns’

The Victims Commissioner, Baroness Newlove, has expressed an “overriding concern” about the ability of an “already stretched probation service” to “withstand the additional pressure” of managing a larger number of people outside of prison.

The policy review also makes recommendations around offenders that are recalled to prison after breaching their licence conditions.

Currently, around 15% of those behind bars are there because they have been recalled. Mostly, it’s for breaching of licence conditions, rather than further offences.

The review recommends a “tighter threshold” for recall so that it is “only used to address consistent non-compliance”, with licence conditions – which can include missing a probation appointment.

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Last week the government announced plans that will see offenders serving one to four-year sentences held for a fixed 28-day period if they are returned to jail.

The review suggests increasing that limit to 56 days, in order to “allow sufficient time for planning around appropriate conditions for safe re-release into community supervision”.

The government is expected to accept the review’s key measures, and implement them with a sentencing bill before parliament.

The plans will likely require legislation and only be before the courts by the spring of 2026.

The UK government is calling for Israel to launch an investigation after the country’s troops fired warning shots while British diplomats were travelling through the West Bank.

Diplomats from Ireland, France, Germany and Turkey were also travelling with the delegation in the city of Jenin when the gunshots rang out on Wednesday.

All four countries have condemned the shooting, which comes after Western nations criticised Israel’s latest offensive in Gaza.

Two British diplomats are understood to be among the group of around 20 people who have been confirmed as safe following the incident in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Footage shows the moment members of the delegation were gathered outside before fleeing the scene as the gunshots rang out.

Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer has described the incident in Jenin as “unacceptable”.

He wrote on X: “I have spoken to our diplomats who were affected. Civilians must always be protected, and diplomats allowed to do their jobs. There must be a full investigation and those responsible should be held accountable.”

Follow latest: Gaza conflict live updates

In response to the situation, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy has announced measures, including financial restrictions and travel bans, targeting prominent settler leader Daniella Weiss and two other individuals.

The measures also target two illegal outposts and two organisations accused of backing violence against Palestinian communities.

It came after Ireland’s deputy premier Simon Harris condemned the shooting in “the strongest terms” and France’s foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot said he would summon the Israeli ambassador over the incident.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s foreign ministry said the shooting showed Israel’s “systematic disregard for international law” and called for an immediate investigation.

Germany’s foreign office had earlier condemned what it referred to as “unprovoked gunfire”, adding: “We are fortunate that nothing worse occurred.”

The Israeli military said the delegation had “deviated from the approved route” of their visit and Israel Defence Force (IDF) soldiers fired warning shots to push them from the area.

The IDF apologised and said it would contact all countries involved in the visit.

The shooting took place a day after the UK announced it would cease all talks of a trade deal with Israel, and summoned the country’s ambassador to make clear Britain is unhappy with the situation in Gaza.

Hospitals in northern Gaza encircled by IDF

Elsewhere, staff and aid groups have said that two of northern Gaza’s last functioning hospitals have been encircled by Israeli troops – preventing anyone from entering or leaving.

The Indonesian and al Awda hospitals are among the region’s only remaining medical facilities, with both coming under fire this week.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organisation, has warned Israel’s military operations and evacuation orders “are stretching the health system beyond the breaking point”.

Just 20 of the territory’s 36 hospitals remain partially functioning – with centres in northern Gaza now said to be “at a serious risk of shutting down completely”.

According to the WHO, there have been almost 700 attacks on medical facilities since the war began.

Israel’s military has accused Hamas of using hospitals as command centres and to hide fighters, but has only provided evidence for some of these claims.

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UK unveils new aid package to Gaza

Elsewhere, UK ministers announced they will send £4m of aid to Gaza, including essential medicines, safe drinking water and food parcels.

Minister for development Jenny Chapman, who is visiting Israel and the occupied territories, said the lack of aid reaching Gazans is “appalling”.

She added: “The Israeli government’s failure to allow full humanitarian access to aid workers is abhorrent. Far too few trucks are crossing into Gaza.

“The UN has warned nearly half a million Palestinians, including children, are facing starvation.

“The UK is clear – Israel will not achieve security through prolonging the suffering of the Palestinian people.”

It comes as British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said humanitarian aid needs to get into Gaza “at pace”.

On Wednesday, Downing Street did not rule out more sanctions on Israeli ministers after a report said Number 10 and other countries were drawing up plans to target key figures in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

Sir Keir’s official spokesman said he would not speculate on future sanctions but added it has been made clear that if Israel does not cease its military offensive and lift aid restrictions then the UK will take further “concrete actions”.

The shooting in the West Bank came hours before the Israeli military said 100 aid trucks carrying flour, baby food and medical equipment had travelled from the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza.

The transfer of aid into Gaza has become an increasingly controversial topic over the last couple of days as the international community fears the territory is on the brink of famine.

The UN said earlier that no aid has been distributed in Gaza since Mr Netanyahu said an 11-week blockade on the territory had been lifted.

On Wednesday evening, the Israeli prime minister held a news conference where he said he would not allow European leaders to “influence” Israel after he was asked about the diplomatic row over the gunfire in Jenin and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

“We have to complete the war,” Mr Netahayu said. “We are going to continue what is needed to end the war.”

He said it was a “mark of shame” that Britain was sanctioning Israel and not Hamas, calling the sanctions an “absolutely horrible thing”.

Friends of Jay Slater have failed to appear as witnesses at an inquest into his death – as a coroner heard the British teenager had drugs in his system before he died from a “devastating” head injury.

Jay Slater, 19, from Oswaldtwistle in Lancashire, disappeared in Tenerife after attending a music festival in June last year.

In the early hours of the following day, he is believed to have travelled to an apartment where people he had met were staying – before he went missing.

His body was recovered in a remote part of La Masca village on 15 July following an extensive search of the island by authorities and his family.

His mother Debbie Duncan, stepfather and other family members attended the inquest into Mr Slater’s death at Preston Coroner’s Court on Wednesday.

Ms Duncan broke down in tears as she told the hearing she still had questions that needed answers.

The hearing, scheduled to last one day, was told extensive efforts had been made to reach several witnesses who were in contact with Mr Slater before he disappeared, which included summonses being issued.

However, a number of witnesses had failed to respond, including Mr Slater’s friends Bradley Geoghegan, Brandon Hodgson and Lucy Law, who were out with him at the music festival.

The two men who were staying at an Airbnb that Mr Slater went back to before he disappeared have also not been traced.

Ms Duncan said: “How can we ever get any understanding?

“There’s things we want to question. We want these people to be sat in front of us, because our son went on holiday and didn’t come back, so there’s questions we need to ask.”

Coroner Dr James Adeley agreed to adjourn the hearing, at the request of Mr Slater’s tearful mother, who asked for the witnesses to be brought to court to give evidence before the inquest concludes. A further hearing date has yet to be set.

Earlier, the court heard analysis of Mr Slater’s body showed traces of drugs including cocaine, ketamine and ecstasy.

During Wednesday’s hearing, Home Office pathologist Dr Richard Shepherd detailed Mr Slater’s injuries.

He described “extensive fractures of the left side of his head… extending into the bottom of his skull”.

Mr Slater also sustained “fractures to the left side of the pelvis and hip joints”.

Dr Shepherd said the injuries were “entirely consistent with a heavy fall, from a height, landing on his head”.

Asked by the coroner if there was any suggestion of assault or restraint, he replied: “Nothing to suggest an assault, gripping, holding, nothing of that sort.”

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Dr Adeley asked the pathologist about the impact of Mr Slater’s injuries.

Dr Shepherd replied: “It would have had an immediate and devastating effect on Jay’s consciousness.

“The injuries were so severe I have no doubt he would have been instantly unconscious from the moment of that blow to the head. Death could well have been instant, the injury was so severe.”

Failing that, it would have most likely occurred “extremely soon after” the fall, he added.

Dr Shepherd gave an official cause of death as a head injury.