Ammunition running out but ‘no new money’ for defence despite war in Ukraine, sources say
The Treasury has signalled there is no new money for defence despite recognising the urgent need to rearm in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine, defence sources have said.
At the same time, the sources said a “refresh” of UK defence policy – that was meant to inform the spending plans of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak – could be delayed until after the March budget because an initial draft failed to reflect sufficiently the transformed security environment in Europe, where a land war is raging.
“It is not very joined up government,” according to one source, who was speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.
The comments came after Sky News last week revealed that a senior US general had told Defence Secretary Ben Wallace that the British Army is no longer regarded as a top level, or “tier one”, fighting force following decades of cuts to its size and strength.
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Govt admits army underfunding
Now, defence sources are warning that Britain will be unable “credibly” to offer as many troops as NATO allies would expect to a major new force structure that is being drawn up by the alliance to bolster its defences in response to the war in Ukraine.
This would only change if Mr Sunak accelerated plans to fix the army’s decline, they said.
A senior European diplomatic source confirmed that the UK “is under-delivering”.
Lord George Robertson, the last British secretary general of NATO, said he was concerned that the government did not fully appreciate the threat posed by Moscow and urged Mr Sunak to act as a “wartime prime minister”.
“The prime minister needs to wake up to the fact that Vladimir Putin has declared war on the West and we are the second military power in the West and we’ve got to live up now to the challenge that he [Mr Sunak] faces,” Lord Robertson told Sky News in an interview.
“That means by taking defence and security more seriously than it appears at the present moment and investing in the right kind of equipment, the right kind of capabilities in order to keep the country safe.”
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British Army is still ‘formidable’
‘Treasury playing hard ball’
Defence sources had already urged the government to increase the defence budget by at least £3bn a year; halt a plan to shrink the size of the army even further; and ease peacetime procurement rules that obstruct the UK’s ability to buy weapons at speed.
But the same sources this weekend said Mr Hunt and the Treasury were “playing a dead bat”.
“We know that at the moment the Treasury and the chancellor are playing hard ball,” one source said.
“They recognise the threats. They recognise the pressure defence is under from inflation, the nuclear deterrent, stockpiles and Ukraine. But despite recognising the threats and the pressure, they say there is no more money.”
The source was referring to how inflation is eroding the value in real terms of an extra £16bn that the Treasury, then led by Mr Sunak, committed to the Ministry of Defence in 2020 across four years in the biggest boost to defence spending since the Cold War.
There is also concern within the Ministry of Defence about how any expanding costs from a multi-billion-pound programme to build a new fleet of nuclear-armed submarines could eat into the conventional capabilities of the Royal Navy, army and Royal Air Force.
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British Army has ‘fallen behind’
As things stand, the army would already run out of ammunition within a few days if called upon to fight and would take up to 10 years to field a modern warfighting division of some 25,000 to 30,000 troops.
Mr Sunak inherited from Liz Truss what is being described as a “refresh” of a 2021 review of UK defence and security policy.
The previous prime minister initiated the work last year because the Integrated Review had been written before Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine and because of growing concerns about the security threat posed by China.
But Ms Truss, unlike Mr Sunak, had also pledged to boost UK defence spending to 3% of GDP from 2%, the NATO minimum, by 2030.
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Tank deliveries to Ukraine ‘going to plan’
Despite the dramatic change in European security following Mr Putin’s onslaught against Ukraine, an initial draft of Mr Sunak’s “refresh” apparently reinforced the decisions of the original review rather than drawing new conclusions, according to two sources.
This included prioritising major investments in high-end capabilities for the navy, such as the submarine fleet, and the development of a future combat aircraft – in line with what the original document described as an “Indo-Pacific tilt”.
While this all remained relevant, the sources said that the refresh failed to accelerate the need to tackle the more immediate, basic gaps faced by the army, such as a lack of artillery, air defence systems, long-range missiles and stockpiles of ammunition.
It is “complete madness and shows the ineptitude of some of the senior leaders to admit they are human”, a second source said.
The army’s holes have been exacerbated because Mr Sunak is giving much of its remaining warfighting capabilities, including tanks and artillery guns, to the Ukrainian military to help in their offensive operations against Russia.
Sources said the war in Ukraine underlined the importance of these weapons and sufficient supplies and spare parts to sustain an operation.
“It is no good having a small number of high-end, exquisite platforms when you have not got capacity around it,” the first defence source said.
“We had assumed that modern wars can be over in a matter of weeks and we have stocked ourselves for that. Whereas the Ukraine war is teaching us that even for a strong military like Russia’s, it will grind on for months and probably years.”
Referring to the UK supplying weapons to the Ukrainian military, the source added that there was nothing in the refresh about the “immediate pressures”.
“If you do not replace what you’re giving away, then the army cannot fight. Arguably it cannot fight now even at a very small scale – at least not for more than a few days.”
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‘Bareness of UK defence cupboards’
The refresh had been due to be published on 7 March, ahead of the spring budget on 15 March. But the source said: “There is a suspicion that it will get pulled or delayed.”
The bareness of UK defence cupboards could become more apparent to NATO allies at a summit of leaders in Lithuania this summer.
A key focus will be on a new force model, which aims to have more than 300,000 military personnel across the alliance on a much higher state of readiness as part of a major reshaping of NATO’s ability to defend itself and deter threats in the wake of Russia’s war.
But Mr Sunak will only be able “credibly” to offer a brigade – between 5,000 and 10,000 soldiers backed by weapons, armoured vehicles and helicopters – when expectations from a leading ally like the UK will be for a division of up to 30,000 soldiers or even more, defence sources said.
Army due to shrink to 73,000 full-time troops
Even a brigade would lack sufficient working equipment and have nothing like enough ammunition stocks or medical support, they noted.
“Other nations will be offering divisions or corps,” one source said.
“They can say that with confidence because they have now made the investment. For the UK, not only have we not made those investments – and there is no sign the chancellor will – but we are actually cutting the army.”
Under current plans, the army is due to shrink to 73,000 full-time troops from 82,000. It is currently at below 76,000.
Mr Sunak did not make rebuilding his armed forces – in particular the army – one of his top five priorities despite the war in Ukraine and the leading role he says he wants Britain to continue to play in supporting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The prime minister became the first leader to offer western tanks to Kyiv – promising 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks. He also pledged the army’s remaining stocks of artillery, some 30 AS90 guns, to help the Ukrainian military prepare for new offensives.
But this further erodes Britain’s own defences and its ability to meet its NATO commitments. It will also limit any desire by Mr Sunak to keep helping Ukraine with the weapons it most needs.
“We have played a good role in the political mobilisation” of nations in support of Ukraine, said Professor Michael Clarke, a defence and security expert.
“We have led in a lot of ways when Ukraine was on the defensive… Now Ukraine is on the offensive we have not got much to offer because we do not have it ourselves.”
‘We have to do everything necessary to protect our people’ – government
Commenting on the claims about no new money for defence and a possible delay in the publication of the refresh of the review, a UK government spokesman said: “We do not comment on speculation outside of fiscal events.
“The prime minister is clear that we have to do everything necessary to protect our people, which is why we are ensuring our armed forces have the equipment and capability they need to meet the threats of tomorrow, including through a fully-funded £242bn 10-year equipment plan.
“That equipment plan and the £24bn, four-year spending review settlement agreed in 2020, gave the Ministry of Defence long term certainty and opportunity to plan for all eventualities.
“Despite the economic landscape changing in recent months, the prime minister has stood by that settlement, ensuring our armed forces remain among the best in the world.
“The publication of the Integrated Review Refresh was commissioned to ensure the UK’s diplomatic, military and security architecture is keeping pace with evolving threats posed by hostile nations. That work is ongoing.”
A separate defence source said: “The defence secretary has made clear for years now, about the need to modernise our army to ensure it keeps pace with our allies.
“That’s why at the spending review in 2020 he achieved an extra £16bn… Reinvesting, learning lessons from Ukraine and growing industrial skills takes time.
“We are on track to start to see new tanks, personnel carriers and air defence systems by the year after next.”
World
Children among 25 people killed by Israeli strikes in Gaza – as 41 killed in attack on northern Lebanon
An 18-month-old boy and his 10-year-old sister are among 25 people who were killed in a series of Israeli strikes on central parts of Gaza, hospital officials have said.
Sixteen people were initially reported to have been killed in two strikes on the central Nuseirat refugee camp on Thursday, but officials from the Al Aqsa hospital said bodies continued to be brought in.
The hospital said they had received 21 bodies from the strikes, including some transferred from the Awda hospital, where they had been taken the day before.
Strikes on a motorcycle in Zuwaida and on a house in Deir al Balah on Friday killed four more, hospital officials said, bringing the overall toll to 25.
Five children and seven women are among those who have been confirmed dead.
The mother of the 18-month-old boy is missing and his father was killed in an Israeli strike four months ago, the family has said.
The Palestinian news agency WAFA earlier reported that 57 people had died in the Israeli strikes.
The Israeli military did not comment on the specific strikes but said its troops had identified and eliminated “several armed terrorists” in central Gaza.
Palestinians watch as smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip. Pic: Reuters
It also said its forces had eliminated “dozens of terrorists” in raids in northern Gaza’s Jabalia area – home to one of the territory’s refugee camps.
It comes as the Israeli military said on Friday it killed senior Hamas official Izz al Din Kassab, describing him as one of the last high-ranking members, in an airstrike in Khan Younis.
A displaced Palestinian boy in Gaza City on 28 October. Pic: Reuters
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have over the past few weeks resumed intense operations in the north of Gaza, claiming they are seeking to stop Hamas, the militant group ruling Gaza, from regrouping.
Meanwhile, top UN officials said in a statement on Friday that the situation in northern Gaza is “apocalyptic” and the entire Palestinian population in the area is at “imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence”.
The overall number of people killed in Gaza in the 13-month war is more than 43,000, officials from the Hamas-run health ministry in the territory, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants, reported this week.
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Civil defence members work at a site damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: Reuters
It comes as at least 41 people were killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Baalbek region on Friday, the regional governor said.
The deaths were confirmed hours after Lebanon’s health ministry said 30 people had been killed in Israeli strikes on the country in the past 24 hours.
It is not clear if any of those killed in the Baalbek region were included in that figure.
In recent days, Israel has intensified its airstrikes on the northeast city of Baalbek and nearby villages, as well as different parts of southern Lebanon, prompting roughly 60,000 people to flee their homes, according to Hussein Haj Hassan, a Lebanese official representing the region.
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Israel has issued evacuation orders for people living in parts of Lebanon
Israel’s military said in a statement that attacks “in the area of Beirut” had targeted Hezbollah weapons manufacturing sites, command centres and other infrastructure.
Israeli planes also pounded Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh overnight, destroying dozens of buildings in several neighbourhoods, according to the Lebanese state news agency.
More than 2,800 people have been killed and 13,000 wounded since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah escalated after Hamas’s 7 October attack last year, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said.
Meanwhile, in northern Israel, seven people, including three Israelis and four Thai nationals, were killed by projectiles fired from Lebanon on Thursday, Israeli medics said.
World
North Korea vows to back Russia until ‘victory’ over Ukraine – as thousands of its troops ‘set to enter combat’
North Korea says it will support Russia in its war with Ukraine “until the day of victory” – after the US warned thousands of Pyongyang’s troops are set to enter combat in the coming days.
North Korea’s foreign minister Choe Son Hui hailed Vladimir Putin’s “wise leadership” ahead of talks in Moscow on Friday, and insisted that Russia will “achieve a great victory”.
“We also assure that until the day of victory we will firmly stand alongside our Russian comrades,” she added.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken has said thousands of North Korean troops are stationed near Ukraine’s border and are set to enter combat in the coming days.
Mr Blinken said 10,000 soldiers have been deployed to Russia, with up to 8,000 in the Kursk border region, and indicated they would be used on the frontline.
He added that the troops have been trained by Russian forces in artillery, drones and “basic infantry operations, including trench clearing”.
In an interview with South Korean TV channel KBS, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the West’s response to the deployment as “nothing, it’s zero”.
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North Korean troops near Ukraine border, US says
Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Friday that he had “nothing to add to what has already been said” on the US claims, and thanked Ms Choe for North Korea’s support.
The deployment of troops to Russia comes after Mr Putin met Kim Jong Un in June, when the Russian president travelled to North Korea for the first time in 24 years.
Vladimir Putin met Kim Jong Un in North Korea in June. Pic: Reuters
A mutual defence pact was agreed during their summit, meaning the countries will help each other if they are attacked.
Speaking in Moscow, Ms Choe accused the US and South Korea of plotting a nuclear strike against her country.
She provided no evidence to back her claim, but spoke of regular consultations between Washington and Seoul, at which she alleged such plotting took place.
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Ms Choe also told Mr Lavrov that tensions on the Korean Peninsula could turn “explosive” at any moment.
On Thursday, North Korea tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile, which it claimed was “the world’s most powerful strategic deterrent”.
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North Korea tests giant missile
On Friday, Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 31 Russian drones and one missile during an overnight strike across the country.
It said 48 drones were launched by Moscow, along with three cruise missiles. Out of the drones launched, another 14 were “locationally lost”.
More than 200 people have died in Spain after nearly a year’s worth of rain fell in a matter of hours.
On Friday, there were at least 205 confirmed deaths in Valencia, two in Castilla La Mancha, and one in Andalusia.
Local authorities issued warnings late on Tuesday, but many say this gave them next-to-no time to prepare for the conditions that had killed dozens by Wednesday.
Here we look at what caused the flooding – and why they could happen again.
How quickly did the floods hit?
Heavy rain had already begun in parts of southern Spain on Monday.
In contrast to areas like Malaga, where residents told Sky News it had been “chucking it down for two days”, the rain did not start in the worst-hit region of Valencia until around 7pm on Tuesday.
At 8pm, people in Valencia received smartphone alerts warning them not to leave their homes.
But by then, many were already trapped in dangerous conditions, particularly in the south of the city where a major road had flooded, leaving drivers stuck in their cars.
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Deadly flood damage is ‘utterly random’
Deadliest weather events were fuelled by climate change
By Wednesday morning, more than 50 people had been found dead.
The Chiva area of Valencia had been hit by 491 litres per square metre of rain in eight hours. Only around 65 l/m2 usually falls in the whole of October.
Storms spread west on Wednesday night and into Thursday, bringing deadly conditions to Andalusia and Castilla La Mancha as well.
What caused them?
Heavy rain is not uncommon across eastern Spain at this time of year.
It’s caused by a weather phenomenon called DANA – ‘depresion aislada en niveles altos’ in Spanish – which translates as ‘isolated low-pressure system at high levels’.
DANA occurs when:
1) Cold air from the north moves south;
2) Warm air then blows over the Mediterranean, rising quickly and forming heavy clouds;
3) The low pressure from the north gets blocked by the high pressure above the water, causing it to slow down or stop completely.
A graphic shows how the DANA phenomenon happens
This creates storm-like conditions that cannot move anywhere else – so the rain falls over the same area for a sustained period of time.
What role did climate change play?
General flash floods and those caused by DANA specifically have struck Spain long before humans started warming the climate.
But climate change is making heavy rain worse, and therefore more dangerous.
That’s because hotter air is able to hold more moisture. So when it rains, it unleashes more water.
The current 1.3C increase in global temperatures since pre-industrial times means the air can carry about 9% more moisture.
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What caused the floods in Spain?
And higher sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean are a “key driver” of strong storms, said Dr Marilena Oltmanns, research scientist at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton.
The world is on track for 3.1C warming by the end of this century, which is expected to make rain heavier still, increasing the chances of flash flooding and giving areas little time to respond.
Imperial College London’s lead for its World Weather Attribution (WWA) group Dr Friederike Otto says there is “no doubt about it”.
“These explosive downpours were intensified by climate change,” she says.
Professor Mark Smith, an expert in water science and health at the University of Leeds, adds that hotter summers also dry out the soil in the ground, which means it absorbs less rain – and more of it flows into rivers and lakes – which flood quicker.
Scale of devastation in Paiporta, Valencia on Thursday. Pic: Reuters
Abandoned and mangled cars in Valencia on Thursday. Pic: AP
Will they keep happening?
A red weather warning is in place for the Huelva area of Andalusia until Friday afternoon.
Beyond the warning period, storms are set to continue across parts of Spain for several days.
In the longer term, Dr Marilena Oltmanns says: “Given the long-term warming trend, both in the sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean region and the global air temperature, we expect the events like the currently observed one in Spain to become more frequent.”
Chiva and the surrounding worst-hit area also suffers from the unfortunate geography of being in a river catchment – where water feeds into the River Turia – and close to the mountains. And is not far from the sea.
That means water has little chance to absorb into the land and so builds up very quickly.
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This makes it all the more imperative that forecasts are accurate, authorities prepare accordingly, and residents respond quickly.
Professor Hannah Cloke, professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading, describes people dying in their cars and being swept away in the street as “entirely avoidable”.
“This suggests the system for alerting people to the dangers of floods in Valencia has failed,” she says.
“People need to understand that extreme weather warnings for floods are very different from regular weather reports. We need to consider flood warnings totally differently, more like fire alarms or earthquake sirens, and less like the way we browse daily weather forecasts on our phones or on the TV.”
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Residents: ‘No one came to rescue us’
Gareth Redmond-King, international analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), says Spain’s tragedy should serve as a “wake-up call” to the UK.
“This is not about future events in a far-off place with a dramatically different climate from the UK. Spain is one of our nearest neighbours,” he warns.
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