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President Biden is expected to use his State of the Union address as a launching pad for a likely reelection announcement in the coming weeks, but a batch of new polls show he still has work to do to convince voters that he deserves a second term.

Biden is likely to use Tuesday’s prime-time speech to argue the economy and Americans’ day-to-day lives are better than when he took office. The president will then hit the road to tout his achievements as his plans to run for reelection appear to be full steam ahead.

But there are signs that even a productive past year that featured major investments in the economy and declining concerns about a recession may not be enough for Biden to excite even some in his own party about a 2024 bid. 

“I think this is an impossible speech to give because it’s a speech that requires him to speak both about the state of the union as it is and the direction he hopes to lead it, which is about playing the role of statesman. But it also is going to lay the groundwork for most likely his own run for office in 2024, which will call for him to be decidedly political and to cover all kinds of ground,” said William Howell, a political scientist at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. 

Biden and his team believe they have a strong case to make to the American public that they can contrast with the chaotic early weeks of the House GOP majority. The White House especially wants to focus on the economy, which has seen some unprecedented turn around in recent weeks.

Biden plans to point to recent economic data that has shown record-setting job growth and the cost of goods falling, which, taken together, have economists optimistic that the U.S. will avoid a recession, something that was a major concern just a few months ago.

But Biden is going into his speech on the heels of a Washington Post-ABC News poll that showed 62 percent of Americans think the president accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” in his first two years in office.

Four out of 10 of those polled indicated they are personally worse off financially since Biden became president, the most recorded in that survey in 37 years.

A Monmouth University poll released Monday found just 24 percent of Americans feel the country is headed in the right direction, down significantly from a high point of 41 percent in April 2021. 

“I think the core message is we have to make more progress, but people should feel optimism that, because of what we have seen and because of the progress we have made, that we know how to keep making progress going forward,” National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told reporters Monday when asked about Americans who may not be feeling the benefits of Biden’s economic agenda.

Another poll released Monday found that only 37 percent of Democrats want Biden to seek another term, which is down from 52 percent ahead of the midterm elections in November, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. 

Poll respondents cited his age as an issue, which has been a consistent concern for voters and some Democratic Party officials. Biden was the oldest president at the time he was sworn in, and he would be 82 at the start of a second term.

Then there is the Chinese surveillance balloon that traversed a swath of the U.S. last week, which posed an unexpected challenge for the president just days before his address to Congress.

The president has also been dogged by his handling of classified documents after sensitive materials from his time as vice president were found at his Delaware home and a Washington, D.C., office he used from 2017 to 2019.

Additionally, Biden is taking jabs for the one thing that the White House is confident it can take a victory lap on: the economy. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a moderate Republican, on Sunday said that Biden will try to take credit for the economy in his State of the Union speech but argued the achievements of the administration are not impressive.

There are other accomplishments Biden may also pepper his big speech with. The president will likely point to the passage of a bill to fund semiconductor chip manufacturing domestically and of the Inflation Reduction Act, which funds green technology and caps health care costs. 

Biden also supported a bipartisan bill to curb gun violence, a measure to codify same-sex marriage and a bill to add benefits to protect veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. And lately, the president has been traveling to tout projects funded by the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law.

Tuesday will give Biden a major opportunity to dispel concerns about his ability to lead the country and to educate the public on what he’s actually done while in office, both of which will be key to boost momentum going into an eventual campaign announcement.

“When you’re sitting in the White House and you’re a year out from national elections, you understand that there’s no way this speech will be covered as anything other than an opening bid and argument for reelection,” said Patrick Gaspard, president of the Center for American Progress.

The White House believes it can draw a contrast between its own record and that of the relatively young House GOP majority, which thus far has announced plans to investigate Biden’s son Hunter Biden as well as the president’s handling of classified documents and his finances.

White House officials have been quick to pounce on Republican proposals to enact a national sales tax, something even Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) doesn’t support, as well as talk of reforming or cutting Social Security and Medicare, two popular government programs that benefit millions of seniors, a key voting bloc. Live coverage: Biden set to deliver State of the Union Online calculator converts air pollution index into number of cigarettes you’ve smoked

After Tuesday’s speech, Biden will head to Wisconsin to discuss his economic plan and Florida to talk about protecting Social Security and Medicare. Other administration officials will scatter around the country to highlight the Biden agenda this week, as well.

Democratic officials said after the State of the Union is when discussions will likely intensify about staffing and infrastructure for a Biden reelection bid. But Tuesday will give the president a chance to make the case to Americans that they’re better off than they were when he took office, a message that would likely be the backbone of his 2024 pitch, even if it doesn’t seem to have resonated with the public just yet, according to the recent polls.

“I think Joe Biden has been one of the most underrated leaders I have ever seen in my life,” said Tom Perez, former Democratic National Committee chairman and co-chair of American Bridge. 

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Kenya drafts legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies

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Kenya drafts legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies

Kenya is preparing legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies with a draft proposal open for public feedback until Jan. 24.

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Why Meta had to ‘bend the knee to Trump’ ahead of his inauguration

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Why Meta had to 'bend the knee to Trump' ahead of his inauguration

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Mark Zuckerberg’s announcement this week that Meta would pivot its moderation policies to allow more “free expression” was widely viewed as the company’s latest effort to appease President-elect Donald Trump. 

More than any of its Silicon Valley peers, Meta has taken numerous public steps to make amends with Trump since his election victory in November.

That follows a highly contentious four years between the two during Trump’s first term in office, which ended with Facebook — similar to other social media companies — banning Trump from its platform.

As recently as March, Trump was using his preferred nickname of “Zuckerschmuck” when talking about Meta’s CEO and declaring that Facebook was an “enemy of the people.”

With Meta now positioning itself to be a key player in artificial intelligence, Zuckerberg recognizes the need for White House support as his company builds data centers and pursues policies that will allow it to fulfill its lofty ambitions, according to people familiar with the company’s plans who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.

“Even though Facebook is as powerful as it is, it still had to bend the knee to Trump,” said Brian Boland, a former Facebook vice president, who left the company in 2020.

Meta declined to comment for this article.

In Tuesday’s announcement, Zuckerberg said Meta will end third-party fact-checking, remove restrictions on topics such as immigration and gender identity and bring political content back to users’ feeds. Zuckerberg pitched the sweeping policy changes as key to stabilizing Meta’s content-moderation apparatus, which he said had “reached a point where it’s just too many mistakes and too much censorship.”

The policy change was the latest strategic shift Meta has taken to buddy up with Trump and Republicans since Election Day.

A day earlier, Meta announced that UFC CEO Dana White, a longtime Trump friend, is joining the company’s board.

And last week, Meta announced that it was replacing Nick Clegg, its president of global affairs, with Joel Kaplan, who had been the company’s policy vice president. Clegg previously had a career in British politics with the Liberal Democrats party, including as a deputy prime minister, while Kaplan was a White House deputy chief of staff under former President George W. Bush.

Kaplan, who joined Meta in 2011 when it was still known as Facebook, has longstanding ties to the Republican Party and once worked as a law clerk for the late conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. In December, Kaplan posted photos on Facebook of himself with Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump during their visit to the New York Stock Exchange.

Joel Kaplan, Facebook’s vice president of global policy, on April 17, 2018.

Niall Carson | PA Images | Getty Images

Many Meta employees criticized the policy change internally, with some saying the company is absolving itself of its responsibility to create a safe platform. Current and former employees also expressed concern that marginalized communities could face more online abuse due to the new policy, which is set to take effect over the coming weeks. 

Despite the backlash from employees, people familiar with the company’s thinking said Meta is more willing to make these kinds of moves after laying off 21,000 employees, or nearly a quarter of its workforce, in 2022 and 2023. 

Those cuts affected much of Meta’s civic integrity and trust and safety teams. The civic integrity group was the closest thing the company had to a white-collar union, with members willing to push back against certain policy decisions, former employees said. Since the job cuts, Zuckerberg faces less friction when making broad policy changes, the people said.

Zuckerberg’s overtures to Trump began in the months leading up to the election.

Following the first assassination attempt on Trump in July, Zuckerberg called the photo of Trump raising his fist with blood running down his face “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.”

A month later, Zuckerberg penned a letter to the House Judiciary Committee alleging that the Biden administration had pressured Meta’s teams to censor certain Covid-19 content.

“I believe the government pressure was wrong, and I regret that we were not more outspoken about it,” he wrote. 

After Trump’s presidential victory, Zuckerberg joined several other technology executives who visited the president-elect’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Meta also donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund.

On Friday, Meta revealed to its workforce in a memo obtained by CNBC that it intends to shutter several internal programs related to diversity and inclusion in its hiring process, representing another Trump-friendly move.

The previous day, some details of the company’s new relaxed content-moderation guidelines were published by the news site The Intercept, showing the kind of offensive rhetoric that Meta’s new policy would now allow, including statements such as “Migrants are no better than vomit” and “I bet Jorge’s the one who stole my backpack after track practice today. Immigrants are all thieves.”

Recalibrating for Trump

Zuckerberg, who has been dragged to Washington eight times to testify before congressional committees during the last two administrations, wants to be perceived as someone who can work with Trump and the Republican Party, people familiar with the matter said.

Though Meta’s content-policy updates caught many of its employees and fact-checking partners by surprise, a small group of executives were formulating the plans in the aftermath of the U.S. election results. By New Year’s Day, leadership began planning the public announcements of its policy change, the people said. 

Meta typically undergoes major “recalibrations” after prominent U.S. elections, said Katie Harbath, a former Facebook policy director and CEO of tech consulting firm Anchor Change. When the country undergoes a change in power, Meta adjusts its policies to best suit its business and reputational needs based on the political landscape, Harbath said. 

“In 2028, they’ll recalibrate again,” she said.

After the 2016 election and Trump’s first victory, for example, Zuckerberg toured the U.S. to meet people in states he hadn’t previously visited. He published a 6,000-word manifesto emphasizing the need for Facebook to build more community.

The social media company faced harsh criticism about fake news and Russian election interference on its platforms after the 2016 election.

Following the 2020 election, during the heart of the pandemic, Meta took a harder stand on Covid-19 content, with a policy executive saying in 2021 that the “amount of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation that violates our policies is too much by our standards.” Those efforts may have appeased the Biden administration, but it drew the ire of Republicans.

Meta is once again reacting to the moment, Harbath said.

“There wasn’t a business risk here in Silicon Valley to be more right-leaning,” Harbath said.

While Trump has offered few specific policy proposals for his second administration, Meta has plenty at stake.

The White House could create more relaxed AI regulations compared with those in the European Union, where Meta says harsh restrictions have resulted in the company not releasing some of its more advanced AI technologies. Meta, like other tech giants, also needs more massive data centers and cutting-edge computer chips to help train and run their advanced AI models.

“There’s a business benefit to having Republicans win, because they are traditionally less regulatory,” Harbath said.

Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg reacts as he testifies during the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on online child sexual exploitation at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2024. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Meta isn’t alone in trying to cozy up to Trump. But the extreme measures the company is taking reflects a particular level of animus expressed by Trump over the years.

Trump has accused Meta of censorship and has expressed resentment over the company’s two-year suspension of his Facebook and Instagram accounts following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

In July 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social that he intended to “pursue Election Fraudsters at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time,” adding “ZUCKERBUCKS, be careful!” Trump reiterated that statement in his book, “Save America,” writing that Zuckerberg plotted against him during the 2020 election and that the Meta CEO would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if it happened again.

Meta spends $14 million annually on providing personal security for Zuckerberg and his family, according to the company’s 2024 proxy statement. As part of that security, the company analyzes any threats or perceived threats against its CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. Those threats are cataloged, analyzed and dissected by Meta’s multitude of security teams.

After Trump’s comments, Meta’s security teams analyzed how Trump could weaponize the Justice Department and the country’s intelligence agencies against Zuckerberg and what it would cost the company to defend its CEO against a sitting president, said the person, who asked not to be named because of confidentiality.

Meta’s efforts to appease the incoming president bring their own risks.

After Zuckerberg announced the new speech policy Tuesday, Boland, the former executive, was among a number of users who took to Meta’s Threads service to tell their followers that they were quitting Facebook. 

“Last post before deleting,” Boland wrote in his post.

Before the post could be seen by any of his Threads followers, Meta’s content moderation system had taken it down, citing cybersecurity reasons. 

Boland told CNBC in an interview that he couldn’t help but chuckle at the situation. 

“It’s deeply ironic,” Boland said.

— CNBC’s Salvador Rodriguez contributed to this report.

WATCH: Meta is returning to free speech tradition, says Facebook’s former chief privacy officer Chris Kelly

Meta is returning to free speech tradition, says Facebook's former chief privacy officer Chris Kelly

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LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of ‘most destructive’ blazes in modern US history

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LA fires: Data and videos reveal scale of 'most destructive' blazes in modern US history

The fires that have been raging in Los Angeles County this week may be the “most destructive” in modern US history.

In just three days, the blazes have covered tens of thousands of acres of land and could potentially have an economic impact of up to $150bn (£123bn), according to private forecaster Accuweather.

Sky News has used a combination of open-source techniques, data analysis, satellite imagery and social media footage to analyse how and why the fires started, and work out the estimated economic and environmental cost.

More than 1,000 structures have been damaged so far, local officials have estimated. The real figure is likely to be much higher.

“In fact, it’s likely that perhaps 15,000 or even more structures have been destroyed,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather.

These include some of the country’s most expensive real estate, as well as critical infrastructure.

Beachfront properties are left destroyed by the Palisades Fire, Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 in Malibu, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Image:
Beachfront properties in Malibu were destroyed by the Palisades fire. Pic: PA

Accuweather has estimated the fires could have a total damage and economic loss of between $135bn and $150bn.

“It’s clear this is going to be the most destructive wildfire in California history, and likely the most destructive wildfire in modern US history,” said Mr Porter.

“That is our estimate based upon what has occurred thus far, plus some considerations for the near-term impacts of the fires,” he added.

The calculations were made using a wide variety of data inputs, from property damage and evacuation efforts, to the longer-term negative impacts from job and wage losses as well as a decline in tourism to the area.

The Palisades fire, which has burned at least 20,000 acres of land, has been the biggest so far.

Sentinel
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades Fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub
Image:
Sentinel satellite imagery of the Pacific Palisades from space, taken around 15 minutes after the Palisades fire was first reported. The red indicates the area of land that had already burned. Pic: Sentinel Hub

Satellite imagery and social media videos indicate the fire was first visible in the area around Skull Rock, part of a 4.5 mile hiking trail, northeast of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighbourhood.

These videos were taken by hikers on the route at around 10.30am on Tuesday 7 January, when the fire began spreading.

At about the same time, this footage of a plane landing at Los Angeles International Airport was captured. A growing cloud of smoke is visible in the hills in the background – the same area where the hikers filmed their videos.

The area’s high winds and dry weather accelerated the speed that the fire has spread. By Tuesday night, Eaton fire sparked in a forested area north of downtown LA, and Hurst fire broke out in Sylmar, a suburban neighbourhood north of San Fernando, after a brush fire.

These images from NASA’s Black Marble tool that detects light sources on the ground show how much the Palisades and Eaton fires grew in less than 24 hours.

 

On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had covered 772 acres. At the time of publication of Friday, the fire had grown to cover nearly 20,500 acres, some 26.5 times its initial size.

The Palisades fire was the first to spark, but others erupted over the following days.

At around 1pm on Wednesday afternoon, the Lidia fire was first reported in Acton, next to the Angeles National Forest north of LA. Smaller than the others, firefighters managed to contain the blaze by 75% on Friday.

Fires map

On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2.40pm local time, according to Ventura County Fire Department, near a place called Victory Trailhead at the border of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

This footage from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley shows plumes of smoke billowing from the Kenneth fire.

Sky News analysed infrared satellite imagery to show how these fires grew all across LA.

The largest fires are still far from being contained, and have prompted thousands of residents to flee their homes as officials continued to keep large areas under evacuation orders. It’s unclear when they’ll be able to return.

“This is a tremendous loss that is going to result in many people and businesses needing a lot of help, as they begin the very slow process of putting their lives back together and rebuilding,” said Mr Porter.

“This is going to be an event that is going to likely take some people and businesses, perhaps a decade to recover from this fully.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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