Kaplan: Latest on Dylan Larkin, David Pastrnak and more buzz from around the NHL
Of all the conversations I had at All-Star weekend in Florida, one with Sidney Crosby stuck out. He told me, multiple times, that the league feels more competitive than it has ever been. In 18 years in the NHL, Crosby said he has never seen anything like it. Sure, Boston has run away with the top record in the league, but there are so many teams clustered behind the Bruins, and any team can win on any night, meaning it’s hard to determine the true favorites.
So as we approach the trade deadline (March 3) — compounded with a stagnant salary cap that has limited so many of the contenders — teams are being cautious on going all-in. Teams seemingly in the mix might end up trading away veterans. Teams arriving ahead of schedule or surging up the standings (see: New Jersey, Buffalo) are being cautious about giving up too much this year, knowing it’s more important for their franchises to build sustainably for the future. And we still aren’t sure which players are available, as some of the top pending unrestricted free agents, such as Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, have yet to announce their intentions. How it all shakes out will make for an intriguing lead-up to the deadline.
Here’s what I’m hearing about storylines to follow over the next month.
Latest on Dylan Larkin in Detroit
At All-Star weekend, Dylan Larkin lamented what he said was misinformation about his contract talks. “It just seems people are fishing and speculating,” Larkin said. “I don’t really want my business out there. I understand we’re in the spotlight and fans want to know. They deserve to know. But I think it’s not really the most truthful, you know?”
As the captain of the Red Wings, Larkin doesn’t want his situation to go public. He hates being a distraction to the team. He has handled the situation as well as he can, but it has to be frustrating. Because in talking to people close to Larkin, nobody really knows where this is going.
So without going into numbers, here’s what I can tell you about the dynamics going on behind the scenes:
Big picture, Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman has a price in mind for what he’s willing to pay for Larkin, and it’s not in line with what some other No. 1 centers around the league are making. Yzerman is sticking to that number. Larkin’s camp is arguing: What does it cost to replace Larkin? They feel strongly about his worth, and it’s more than Yzerman has been willing to budge. So we’re between a rock and a hard place.
The one thing I’ve heard consistently about Yzerman as a general manager is that he works slow. He grinds things out. He and Larkin’s camp haven’t talked in a few days. In that time, the Islanders offered Horvat the $8.5 million AAV. So when Larkin’s reps and Yzerman reconnect — likely sometime this week — they’ll see if that comp helps their case.
Ideally Yzerman wants to get this deal done before the March 3 deadline so he can plan other moves — and also ensure his 26-year-old captain doesn’t walk away this summer for nothing. Larkin has full control here with a no-trade clause in his deal. As of now, Larkin doesn’t have an appetite for moving, either at the deadline or this summer. He’s a hometown kid who has played his entire life in the state of Michigan. He takes pride in leading Detroit. But it’s becoming apparent other teams might be willing to give him more money on the open market. And if there isn’t progress, his agent can talk to other teams and broker a deal to where Larkin wants to go. But they are hopeful it doesn’t get to that. Based on how things are going, there’s a very good chance this doesn’t get resolved until the summer.
David Pastrnak close to getting paid?
On the David Pastrnak contract talks, I’ve been told the Bruins and their star winger are “financially very close.” Though Pastrnak admitted during All-Star weekend that there is no rush and he is focusing on hockey, this is tracking to get done this season, after some progress the past few weeks. It sounds like Pastrnak will get paid on level with the top stars in the league, and for more money than Boston’s front office was originally budgeting. I have heard that Pastrnak also wanted to be comfortable with the Bruins’ long-term vision so they can stay competitive in the next era after Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci and Brad Marchand are done.
To that end, it sounds like the Bruins have been very hesitant to give up a first-round pick or too many assets for rental players at this year’s deadline. They’ve been burned before, and need to build back up their prospect pool. The Bruins are looking to make depth additions for the playoff push, but ideally would pick up a player who fits into their long-term plans as well. Cost certainty is also a big priority for two other top Eastern Conference contenders: the New Jersey Devils and Carolina Hurricanes.
Islanders needed to overpay Bo Horvat
If Horvat’s eight-year, $8.5 million AAV extension reaffirmed anything, it’s the importance of market dynamics. Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello said it himself: “It’s too long and it’s too much money.” But the Islanders were desperate for a jolt. When I was in Long Island the week before the All-Star break, players were saying they didn’t believe the Islanders were as bad as their record suggested. They just were in a rut, struggling to score — Mathew Barzal told me he thought he should have three more goals and 15 more assists — and the power play was brutal. Lamoriello gave up significant assets to obtain Horvat, and needed to overpay to ensure it wasn’t for naught.
Market for Timo Meier
With Horvat moved, all eyes are on Timo Meier as the top forward available. He’s 26, and scoring at a career pace (0.55 goals per game through his first 51 games) at exactly the right time. Meier is a restricted free agent this summer (albeit with a $10 million qualifying offer). But teams around the league are hoping to negotiate a new contract with Meier’s camp in facilitating the trade, hoping they can get him in the $8 million to $9 million range. The Metro rival Devils and New York Rangers are both very interested, though cautious about getting into a bidding war, because they’re not alone in that interest. “Everyone is talking to San Jose about Timo Meier,” one Eastern Conference executive told me. “Everyone is monitoring it.”
Thatcher Demko on the move?
There has been a lot of speculation about Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko ahead of the trade deadline. Per sources, at least four teams have called Vancouver asking about Demko’s availability — and the Canucks haven’t said no to any of those teams. If Vancouver is serious about a rebuild, it could get a lot of assets for Demko, who is just 27 and under contract for three more years on a team-friendly $5 million per season.
The goalie hasn’t played since Dec. 1 because of a lower body injury, and he’s about a week and a half away from getting back on the ice. Should he get in a couple of good starts and look like the old, dominant Demko again, that interest would probably increase. So it’s a situation to monitor, but not necessarily one that’s imminent.
It’s not as hot of a goalie market as it was last year, though there will be teams looking for some assurance in net, especially if injuries pop up over the next few weeks. The two veterans most likely to be on the move are Cam Talbot out of Ottawa and James Reimer out of San Jose. The Canes have three NHL goalies, and given the emergence of Pyotr Kochetkov, they might be willing to move pending UFA Antti Raanta should the right offer emerge.
Kevin Hayes and latest on Flyers
One of the best stories of the weekend was Kevin Hayes, the 30-year-old forward making his first All-Star appearance in his ninth year of the league. Hayes’ late brother, Jimmy, always told Kevin he believed he was an All-Star.
“I never really thought that something like this would happen,” Kevin said. “He would always just say, ‘This is the year, it’s going to happen.’ I think he was just saying it to be a good guy.”
It was clearly an emotional weekend for Hayes, who shared the ice with his cousins, Matthew and Brady Tkachuk, as well as his former Boston College teammate, Johnny Gaudreau. A large contingent of the Hayes family was on hand, including Jimmy’s son, Beau, whose No. 1 goal of the weekend was meeting his favorite player, David Pastrnak, in the locker room.
The Flyers had practice Sunday afternoon in Voorhees, and I’m told Hayes switched flights to a 7 a.m. departure to rush back to make it. That’s an example of Hayes’ character, and the way he’s working hard to set an example for the new culture of the Flyers under John Tortorella. That type of discipline didn’t always exist on the team.
On Monday, Tortorella sent a letter to Flyers season-ticket holders, being transparent about where the team was in its journey. The key line: “I’m not going to lie to you — and I want to be clear about this — we’re not there yet. This year was the first step in building the future of the Flyers and restoring our reputation as one of the most respected teams in hockey.” That signals the Flyers are going to once again be sellers at this year’s deadline.
I have heard there are some teams interested in Hayes, who has three years remaining on his contract with an average annual value of $7.1 million, though the Flyers would undoubtedly need to retain some salary should they move him. The more likely Philly forward to get traded is James van Riemsdyk, a pending unrestricted free agent (who would also require some retention on his $7 million salary). And while the Flyers would like to move Ivan Provorov ($6.75 million, under contract through 2024-25), I was told by an Eastern Conference executive that there’s a lot more league-wide interest in Nick Seeler ($750,000, under contract through 2023-24) as a diamond-in-the-rough option on a budget contract. Philadelphia could be inclined to move the 29-year-old Seeler to open up spots for younger players in the final stretch.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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