New Western measures aim to turn up the heat on Putin’s oil revenues. Analysts are underwhelmed
Freight wagons carrying oil and fuel at a petroleum products terminal in Riga, Latvia, on Feb. 2, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The West’s latest attempt to ramp up its oil war against Russia may cause some market dislocation, but some energy analysts remain far from convinced that the restrictions will constitute a “transformative event.”
An EU ban on Russian oil product imports came into effect on Feb. 5, following similar restrictions on EU crude oil intake, implemented on Dec. 5. The Group of Seven wealthy countries, the European Union and Australia on Friday on Friday set a ceiling for the price at which nations outside of the coalition may purchase seaborne Russian diesel and other refined petroleum products and still benefit from Western shipping and financial facilities.
The price cap coalition, which is composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., seeks to deplete Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest amid Moscow’s ongoing hostilities in Ukraine.
The EU and its G-7 allies said last week that it had set two price caps for Russian petroleum products — one is a $100 per barrel cap on products that trade at a premium to crude, like diesel, and the other is a $45 cap for petroleum products that trade at a discount to the same basis.
Some analysts warned that the measures could cause “significant market dislocations” and that the EU embargo was more complex and more disruptive than what had come before.
Not everyone shares this assessment.
“There is an overwhelming assumption that this will be a huge disruption to everything. I don’t really think this will be a transformative event,” Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
“I don’t really think that this will have the impact that a lot of people can imagine, and the main driver for this will be actually human creativity — and the constant search for a new solution, for a new supply chain or for a new route,” Katona said.
“This will bring us basically into the same story that we had with the oil price cap back in December. People expected a lot of things. In the end, it never really happened,” he added.
‘Russia may struggle to compensate fully’
As part of the sixth EU package of sanctions against Russia that was adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia. The restrictions applied in early December and February, respectively.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via a video conference on Feb. 3, 2023.
Pavel Byrkin | Afp | Getty Images
Asked whether those predicting significant market disruption because of the measures targeting Russia’s refined oil products were likely to be wide of the mark, Katona replied, “I think they are. I would say that the main development of the past two weeks when it comes to Russian diesel has been happening not in Europe, but in North Africa.”
Katona said North African countries were expected to receive at least 6 million barrels of ultra-low sulfur diesel from Russia, estimating that this was roughly one-quarter of what the European Union used to purchase from Moscow.
He explained that a “substantial transformation clause” remains under question because North African countries are not members of the price cap coalition.
“Basically, you drip one droplet of something else into a cargo of Russian diesel and it is already Moroccan, it is already Algerian, it is already Tunisian,” Katona said. “All of these countries have seen quite a substantial uptick in Russian diesel flows. And our expectation is that Feb. 5 kicks in, and there will be a lot of flows from North Africa, basically Russian in all but name.”
Ahead of the Western ban on its oil supplies, the Kremlin reaffirmed its opposition to the measures and warned that it would cause further market imbalances.
“It will lead to further imbalances on the international energy markets,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Friday, according to Russian news agency Tass. “Naturally, we are taking precautions to protect our interests from the risks associated with it.”
Energy analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said that the latest wave of Western sanctions was likely to dislocate flows rather than cause a severe disruption of supplies, noting that oil-product markets have had several months of advance notice to prepare for the restrictions.
“Still, while flows are readjusting, some disruption is possible, especially in the middle distillate market, which was already tight before the latest sanctions,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note.
“Russia may struggle to compensate fully for the loss of EU buyers, especially if a recovering China stops exporting so much surplus fuel and instead starts to import significant quantities again,” they added.
‘Shipments will take longer’
“This is a very substantial disruption to really a key industrial field across much of the euro zone,” Edward Bell, commodities analyst at Emirates NBD, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday.
“Russia was the dominant external supplier of diesel to euro zone economies, so the fact that this embargo is now in place means that there will be a little bit of a readjustment and scrambling to get those additional barrels.”
Bell said it appears as though Russia has so far been able to find new markets or expand diesel exports to historical markets, such as to Turkey and partners in North Africa and Asia. “All this means those shipments will take longer,” he added.
“This is not a positive indicator in terms of the direction for prices going downward and easing the burden of energy prices on consumers but in terms of actually disrupting supply it doesn’t like we are in any kind of panic stations just yet.”
Bell suggested Saudi Arabia’s diesel exports to Europe could be set for a “big uptick,” following the West’s embargo on Russian petroleum products.
Environment
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Isuzu is giving Red Bull electrified wings – the iconic drinks company is officially the first to put the production version of its new-for-2025 Isuzu NRR-EV medium duty electric box truck to work in North America.
Deployed by Red Bull North America, these first-ever customer Isuzu NRR-EV medium duty trucks are busy delivering cans of Red Bull products throughout Southern California with zero tailpipe emissions, marking the first time the best-selling low-cab/cabover box truck brand in the US can make such a claim.
“Today marks a major milestone for the industry and for us. Watching the NRR-EV evolve from a concept to a viable operating product is a big deal,” explains Shaun Skinner, President of Isuzu Commercial Truck of America. “Our teams and our clients have put so much time and effort into making this happen, and it speaks to our teamwork and dedication to more sustainable transportation solutions. It is no longer just a plan, we have zero-emission trucks serving our customers’ needs!”
The NRR-EV is available with a number of different battery configurations, ranging from three 20 kWh battery packs (60 kWh total) up to nine 20 kWh battery packs, with five and seven pack options in between. The nine-pack version is good for up to 235 miles of range with a 19,500 lb. GVWR. The batteries, regardless of configuration, send power to a 150 kW (200 hp) electric motor with 380 lb-ft. of torque available at 0 rpm.
For “Red Bull” duty, the Isuzu trucks ship with a 100 kWh total battery capacity, and are fitted a lightweight, all-aluminum 6-bay beverage body, the vehicle’s design maintains its cargo capacity. The NRR-EV’s 19,500 lb. GVWR (Class 5) chassis, combined with the lightweight body and “big enough” battery spec provides Red Bull’s delivery drivers a hefty, 9,000 lb. payload.
Isuzu began assembling NRR-EV trucks at its Charlotte, Michigan assembly plant in August 2024. Customer deliveries are set to begin nationally in Q1 of 2025.
Electrek’s Take
Isuzu’s N-series trucks are everywhere – and for good reason. They’re dependable, they’re affordable, and they have a nationwide network of GM dealers supporting them. I am a huge fan of these trucks, and can’t wait to sample the electric version from behind the wheel.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Isuzu.
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Hyundai is gearing up to launch its first all-electric minivan. Production is set to begin next year, and the EV minivan is expected to play a key role in its global expansion. Here’s what to expect.
Hyundai will launch its first EV minivan in 2025
The Staria is Hyundai’s successor to the Starex, its multi-purpose vehicle (MPV), launched in 2021. Like its replacement, the Staria is offered in a minivan, minibus, van, pickup, and several other configurations like limousines and ambulances.
Although the Staria was launched with only diesel and gas-powered powertrain options, Hyundai added its first hybrid model in February.
Hyundai will introduce the Staria Electric, its first electric minivan, next year. In March, Hyundai unveiled its new ST1 electric business van, which is based on the Staria. However, the minivan will get its own EV model in 2025. The ST1 is Hyundai’s first commercial EV. It’s available in refrigerated van and basic chassis cab options.
Hyundai is already building gas-powered and hybrid Staria models at its Ulsan plant in Korea, but it is preparing to begin producing the EV version.
According to the Korean media outlet Newsis, sources close to the matter on Friday said Hyundai will begin converting a production line (Line 1) at its Ulsan Plant 4 for Staria Electric around January 25, 2024.
The expansion is part of Hyundai’s broader plan to introduce 21 electric vehicles by 2030, accounting for over 2 million in sales.
A report from The Korean Economic Daily in June claimed Hyundai would expand Staria EV production into Europe starting in the first half of 2026. European-made models will be sold domestically and overseas, like in Australia and Thailand. Hyundai aims to sell 15,000 to 20,000 of the EV model annually.
The Staria Electric will be powered by Hyundai’s fourth-generation 84 kWh EV batteries and will have over 10% more capacity than the ST1.
Hyundai sold 37,769 Starias through the first 11 months of 2024. Last year, Hyundai Staria sales reached 39,780, including domestic and export sales. By the end of the year, Staria sales are expected to exceed 40,000 for the first time.
Hyundai’s sister company also has big plans to expand its commercial business with a new lineup of EVs based on its PBV (Platform Beyond Vehicle). Its first electric van, the PV5, was spotted earlier this year as a potential Volkswagen ID.Buzz challenger.
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