Freight wagons carrying oil and fuel at a petroleum products terminal in Riga, Latvia, on Feb. 2, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The West’s latest attempt to ramp up its oil war against Russia may cause some market dislocation, but some energy analysts remain far from convinced that the restrictions will constitute a “transformative event.”
An EU ban on Russian oil product imports came into effect on Feb. 5, following similar restrictions on EU crude oil intake, implemented on Dec. 5. The Group of Seven wealthy countries, the European Union and Australia on Friday on Friday set a ceiling for the price at which nations outside of the coalition may purchase seaborne Russian diesel and other refined petroleum products and still benefit from Western shipping and financial facilities.
The price cap coalition, which is composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., seeks to deplete Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s war chest amid Moscow’s ongoing hostilities in Ukraine.
The EU and its G-7 allies said last week that it had set two price caps for Russian petroleum products — one is a $100 per barrel cap on products that trade at a premium to crude, like diesel, and the other is a $45 cap for petroleum products that trade at a discount to the same basis.
Some analysts warned that the measures could cause “significant market dislocations” and that the EU embargo was more complex and more disruptive than what had come before.
Not everyone shares this assessment.
“There is an overwhelming assumption that this will be a huge disruption to everything. I don’t really think this will be a transformative event,” Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
“I don’t really think that this will have the impact that a lot of people can imagine, and the main driver for this will be actually human creativity — and the constant search for a new solution, for a new supply chain or for a new route,” Katona said.
“This will bring us basically into the same story that we had with the oil price cap back in December. People expected a lot of things. In the end, it never really happened,” he added.
‘Russia may struggle to compensate fully’
As part of the sixth EU package of sanctions against Russia that was adopted in June last year, the 27-member bloc imposed a ban on the purchase, import or transfer of seaborne crude oil and petroleum products from Russia. The restrictions applied in early December and February, respectively.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via a video conference on Feb. 3, 2023.
Pavel Byrkin | Afp | Getty Images
Asked whether those predicting significant market disruption because of the measures targeting Russia’s refined oil products were likely to be wide of the mark, Katona replied, “I think they are. I would say that the main development of the past two weeks when it comes to Russian diesel has been happening not in Europe, but in North Africa.”
Katona said North African countries were expected to receive at least 6 million barrels of ultra-low sulfur diesel from Russia, estimating that this was roughly one-quarter of what the European Union used to purchase from Moscow.
He explained that a “substantial transformation clause” remains under question because North African countries are not members of the price cap coalition.
“Basically, you drip one droplet of something else into a cargo of Russian diesel and it is already Moroccan, it is already Algerian, it is already Tunisian,” Katona said. “All of these countries have seen quite a substantial uptick in Russian diesel flows. And our expectation is that Feb. 5 kicks in, and there will be a lot of flows from North Africa, basically Russian in all but name.”
Ahead of the Western ban on its oil supplies, the Kremlin reaffirmed its opposition to the measures and warned that it would cause further market imbalances.
“It will lead to further imbalances on the international energy markets,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Friday, according to Russian news agency Tass. “Naturally, we are taking precautions to protect our interests from the risks associated with it.”
Energy analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said that the latest wave of Western sanctions was likely to dislocate flows rather than cause a severe disruption of supplies, noting that oil-product markets have had several months of advance notice to prepare for the restrictions.
“Still, while flows are readjusting, some disruption is possible, especially in the middle distillate market, which was already tight before the latest sanctions,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note.
“Russia may struggle to compensate fully for the loss of EU buyers, especially if a recovering China stops exporting so much surplus fuel and instead starts to import significant quantities again,” they added.
‘Shipments will take longer’
“This is a very substantial disruption to really a key industrial field across much of the euro zone,” Edward Bell, commodities analyst at Emirates NBD, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday.
“Russia was the dominant external supplier of diesel to euro zone economies, so the fact that this embargo is now in place means that there will be a little bit of a readjustment and scrambling to get those additional barrels.”
Bell said it appears as though Russia has so far been able to find new markets or expand diesel exports to historical markets, such as to Turkey and partners in North Africa and Asia. “All this means those shipments will take longer,” he added.
“This is not a positive indicator in terms of the direction for prices going downward and easing the burden of energy prices on consumers but in terms of actually disrupting supply it doesn’t like we are in any kind of panic stations just yet.”
Bell suggested Saudi Arabia’s diesel exports to Europe could be set for a “big uptick,” following the West’s embargo on Russian petroleum products.
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A new Tesla prototype was spotted again, reigniting speculation among Tesla shareholders, even though it’s likely just a Model Y, potentially a bit smaller, and the upcoming stripped-down, cheaper version.
It sparked a lot of speculation about it being the new “affordable” compact Tesla vehicle.
There’s confusion in the Tesla community around Tesla’s upcoming “affordable” vehicles because CEO Elon Musk falsely denied a report last year about Tesla’s “$25,000” EV model being canceled.
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The facts are that Musk canceled two cheaper vehicles that Tesla was working on, commonly referred as “the $25,000 Tesla” in early 2024. Those vehicles were codenamed NV91 and NV92, and they were based on the new vehicle platform that Tesla is now reserving for the Cybercab.
Instead, Musk noticed that Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production lines were starting to be underutilized as the Company faced demand issues. Therefore, Tesla canceled the vehicles program based on the new platform and decided to build new vehicles on Model 3/Y platform using the same production lines.
We previously reported that these electric vehicles will likely look very similar to Model 3 and Model Y.
In recent months, several other media reports reinforced this, and Tesla all but confirmed it during its latest earnings call, when it stated that it is “limited in how different vehicles can be when built on the same production lines.”
Now, the same Tesla prototype has been spotted over the last few days, and it sent the Tesla shareholders community into a frenzy of speculations:
Electrek’s Take
As we have repeatedly reported over the last year, the new “affordable” Tesla “models” coming are basically only stripped-down Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.
They might end up being a little smaller by a few inches, and Tesla may use different model names, but they will be extremely similar.
If this is it, which is possible, you can see it looks almost exactly like a Model Y.
It’s hard to confirm if it’s indeed smaller because of the angle of the vehicle compared to the other Model Ys, but it’s not impossible that the wheelbase is a bit smaller – although it’s hard to confirm.
Either way, the most significant changes for these stripped-down, more affordable “models” are expected to be cheaper interior materials, like textile seats instead of vegan leather, no heated or ventilated seats standard, no rear screen, maybe even no double-panned acoustic glass and a lesser audio system.
As previously stated, the real goal of these new variants, or models, is to lower the average sale price in order to combat decreasing demand and maintain or increase the utilization rate of Tesla’s current production lines, which have been throttled down in the last few years to now about 60% utilization.
If this trend continues, Tesla would find itself in trouble and may even have to close its factories.
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CANNES — Wall Street’s new plumbing is being built on Ethereum and this week its architects took over the same French Riviera villas and red carpet venues that host the Cannes Film Festival in May.
The Ethereum Community Conference, or EthCC, took over the beachside town that was swarming with crypto founders, developers, and some of the institutional giants now building atop the infrastructure.
The crypto elite climbed the iconic red-carpeted steps of the Palais des Festivals — a cinematic landmark now repurposed as the stage for Ethereum’s flagship European event.
“The atmosphere this year was palpable in Cannes,” said Bettina Boon Falleur, the powerhouse behind EthCC for the past seven years. “The prestige of the location, combined with the quality of talks, has reinforced Ethereum’s stature and purpose in the wider ecosystem.”
Private parties sprawled across cliffside estates and exclusive resorts, but the conversations were less about price action and more about the blockchain’s evolving role as the back-end of global finance.
EthCC, now in its eighth year, has tracked Ethereum’s trajectory from scrappy experiment to institutional backbone.
“That impact was unmistakable this year,” Falleur said. “From Robinhood embracing decentralized finance infrastructure via Arbitrum to local governments like the City of Cannes exploring deeper integration with the crypto economy.”
Indeed, one of the boldest moves came this week from Robinhood, which became the first publicly traded U.S. company to launch tokenized stocks on-chain.
At a product showcase held inside a Belle Époque mansion overlooking the sea, Robinhood unveiled a sweeping new crypto strategy — including the ability for European users to trade tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs via Arbitrum, a Layer 2 network built on Ethereum.
The announcement helped push Robinhood stock past $100 for the first time, capping off a week of fresh all-time highs and a more than 30% rally since being snubbed by the S&P 500 during a recent rebalance.
Inside the Palais des Festivals, ETHCC draws founders, developers, and institutions into the same halls that host the world’s biggest film premieres — this time, for the future of finance.
MacKenzie Sigalos
Ether, the token native to the Ethereum blockchain, was up nearly 6% on the week and several public equities tied to the blockchain have rallied alongside it.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, a company that mines bitcoin, gained more than 1,200% since announcing it would make ether its primary treasury reserve asset. Bit Digital, which recently exited bitcoin mining to “become a pure play” ethereum staking and treasury company, gained more than 34% this week. And SharpLink Gaming, which added more than $20 million in ether to its balance sheet this week, jumped more than 28% on Thursday.
Ether ETF inflows are rising again too — a sign that institutional investors are warming back up.
Ether is still down more than 20% this year and lags far behind bitcoin in market cap and adoption. But funds tracking ETH have seen two straight months of mostly net inflows, according to CoinGlass data. Still, ether ETFs total just $11 billion — compared to $138 billion in bitcoin ETFs.
Institutions aren’t betting on Ethereum for hype — they’re betting on infrastructure.
Even as prices stall and the network faces headwinds from slower base layer revenues and faster rivals like Solana, the momentum is shifting toward utility.
“Ethereum is getting plugged into these core transactional systems,” Paul Brody, global blockchain leader at EY, told CNBC on the sidelines of EthCC. “Investors, savers, people moving money — they are going to start shifting from some of the older mechanisms of doing this into Ethereum ecosystems that can do these transactions faster, cheaper, but also very importantly, with significant new functionality attached to it.”
Crypto founders and developers climb the iconic red-carpeted steps of the Palais des Festivals — a familiar backdrop for the Cannes Film Festival, now repurposed for Ethereum’s flagship European event.
MacKenzie Sigalos
Deutsche Bank recently announced it’s building a tokenization platform on zkSync — a faster, cheaper blockchain built on top of Ethereum — to help asset managers issue and manage tokenized funds, stablecoins, and other real-world assets while meeting regulatory and data protection requirements.
Coinbase and Kraken are also racing to own the crossover between traditional stocks and crypto.
Coinbase has filed with the SEC to offer trading in tokenized public equities, a move that would diversify its revenue stream and bring it into more direct competition with brokerages like Robinhood and eToro.
Kraken announced plans to offer 24/7 trading of U.S. stock tokens in select overseas markets.
BlackRock‘s tokenized money market fund, BUIDL — launched on Ethereum last year — offers qualified investors on-chain access to yield with redemptions settled in USDC in real time.
Stablecoins, meanwhile, continue to serve as the backbone of Ethereum’s financial layer.
“The builders and contributors at EthCC aren’t chasing the next bull run,” Falleur said, “they’re laying the groundwork to make Ethereum home for the next billion users.”
Even as newer blockchains tout faster speeds and lower fees, Ethereum is proving its staying power as a trusted network.
Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, told CNBC in Cannes that there is an assumption that institutions only care about scale and speed — but in practice, it’s the opposite.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin delivers a keynote at ETHCC, laying out the network’s next steps — and its values test — as institutional adoption accelerates.
EthCC
“A lot of institutions basically tell us to our faces that they value Ethereum because it’s stable and dependable, because it doesn’t go down,” he said.
Buterin added that firms often ask about privacy and other long-term features — the kinds of concerns that institutions, he said, “really value.”
Tomasz Stańczak, the new co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, said institutions are choosing Ethereum for the same core reasons.
“Ten years without stopping for a moment. Ten years of upgrades, with a huge dedication to security and censorship resistance,” he said.
He added that when institutions send orders to the market, they want to be “absolutely sure that their order is treated fairly, that nobody has preference, that the transaction actually is executed at the time when it’s delivered.”
Those guarantees have become increasingly valuable as stablecoins and tokenized assets move into the mainstream.
Ethereum’s core values — neutrality, security, and censorship resistance — are emerging as competitive advantages.
The real test now is whether Ethereum can scale without losing its values.
“We don’t just want to succeed,” Buterin said from the mainstage of the Palais this week. “We want to be something that is worthy of succeeding.”
He said the hope is that future generations will look back and see a network that truly delivered openness, freedom, and permissionless access to the masses.
White-clad guests dance poolside at the rAAVE party in Cannes.
MacKenzie Sigalos
But the week didn’t end in the conference halls, it closed with tradition. On the balcony of Villa Montana, overlooking the Bay of Cannes, the rAAVE party lit up.
White-clad guests sipped cocktails as the DJ spun by the pool, haze curling from smoke machines.
This year, Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov and DeFi icon Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, stood atop the balcony overlooking the crowd and the light-dotted skyline of Cannes.
It was a fitting snapshot of the momentum behind Ethereum’s institutional rise and symbolic of Web3’s shift from niche experiment to financial mainstay.