Renewables will dominate the growth of global electricity supply and meet the vast majority of the increase in demand to 2025, according to a new report out today from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Renewables’ share of the global power generation mix is forecast to rise from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, with the shares of coal- and gas-fired generation falling, according to the IEA’s “Electricity Market Report 2023.” So that means that the CO2 intensity of global power generation will continue to fall in the coming years.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol said:
The world’s growing demand for electricity is set to accelerate, adding more than double Japan’s current electricity consumption over the next three years.
The good news is that renewables and nuclear power are growing quickly enough to meet almost all this additional appetite, suggesting we are close to a tipping point for power sector emissions. Governments now need to enable low-emissions sources to grow even faster and drive down emissions so that the world can ensure secure electricity supplies while reaching climate goals.
Renewables and nuclear will dominate the growth of the global electricity supply over the next three years, together meeting on average more than 90% of additional demand. China accounts for more than 45% of the growth in renewables from 2023 to 2025, followed by the EU with 15%.
Global electricity generation from both natural gas and coal is expected to remain broadly flat between 2022 and 2025. Gas use will drop in the EU but is expected to rise in the Middle East. A drop in coal use in the EU and the Americas will be matched by a rise in Asia Pacific. Developments in China, where more than half of the world’s coal-fired generation occurs, will remain a key factor.
After reaching an all-time high in 2022, power generation emissions are set to plateau through 2025. Global electricity generation emissions increased 1.3% in 2022, a rate similar to the 2016-2019 average. That’s a significant slowdown from the 6% rise in 2021, which was driven by the rapid economic recovery from the pandemic.
After 2021, 2022 marks the highest percentage growth in emissions of EU power generation since the oil crises of the 1970s, recording a 4.5% year-on-year growth. However, the EU’s setback will be temporary, as power generation emissions are expected to decrease on average by about 10% annually through 2025. Coal is expected to fall by 10% and gas by almost 12% annually on average over the outlook period as renewables ramp up and nuclear generation recovers.
Electricity demand in India and the US rose, while the zero-Covid policy affected China’s growth. The US recorded a significant 2.6% year-over-year demand increase in 2022 that was driven by economic activity and higher residential use to meet both heating and cooling needs amid hotter summer weather and a colder-than-normal winter. Electricity demand in India rose by a 8.4% in 2022, due to post-pandemic economic recovery and exceptionally high summer temperatures.
Photo: Siemens Gamesa
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Apple CarPlay possibly coming to Tesla cars, VW getting access to Superchargers, a Toyota electric pickup, and more.
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2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 at a Tesla Supercharger (Source: Hyundai)
US EV sales declined in October following the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit on September 30, and the average transaction price (ATP) edged up, according to initial estimates from Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive brand. However, there are still deals to be had.
Kelley Blue Book’s initial estimates show that US EV sales fell to 74,835 in October, down 48.9% from September, which was a record month, and 30.3% year-over-year.
Prices also ticked up. The average transaction price (ATP) for a new EV climbed 1.6% month-over-month to $59,125, which is 2.3% higher than a year ago.
Tesla didn’t escape the downturn, but it held up better than the overall EV market. The company’s ATP fell 1.1% from September to $53,526, and its prices are 5.5% lower than they were in October 2024. Sales of the Model 3 and Model Y both declined month-over-month, and overall Tesla sales decreased by 35.3% from September and 23.6% year-over-year, which are smaller declines compared to the broader EV segment.
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Cox Automotive senior analyst Stephanie Valdez Streaty said the shift wasn’t surprising:
We expected this shift in the electric vehicle market. With the IRA-backed sales incentives gone, lower-cost EV volume was hit hard, pushing the mix toward more luxury and driving October’s EV ATP to a 2025 high of $59,125 – now $9,359 above the industry average. Affordability has always been the core challenge with EV sales, and this reset only underscores how critical it is to bring more attainable EV options to market.
Electrek’s Take
September was a record-breaking month for both EV deals and sales. Dealers were offering all sorts of sweet incentives to stack with the federal tax credit to move cars off the lot. October’s sales drop was entirely anticipated, like a pounding headache after a big blowout party.
We didn’t know what the post-federal tax credit EV market would look like. As Valdez Streaty rightly states, EVs do have a higher ATP than the industry average. But it turns out that, so far, it’s not all doom and gloom, and the federal tax credit isn’t the only incentive in town.
Every month, I compile great EV lease deals, and for the last few months, some EVs’ monthly lease payments have been cheaper than before the federal tax credit expired. Many states are still offering rebates on EV purchases, and dealers still have really good deals. While cheaper models would definitely be welcome, there are good deals available right now.
And let’s not forget the fact that EVs are much cheaper to drive than gas cars, with or without that tax credit.
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The Oshkosh-built Striker Volterra Electric Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighter (ARFF) packs advanced battery technology to deliver ultra-fast emergency response performance no matter how long it needs to be in action — and Dallas Fort Worth International Airport just put six of the awesome 6×6 machines to work!
Oshkosh has been manufacturing ARFF vehicles since it first launched the MB-5 for use by the US Navy back in 1968, and they’ve been pushing the envelope of disaster response performance ever since. The company’s latest ARFF, the Striker Volterra Electric shown here, features a slanted body with front bumper designed for maneuvering through the ditches and rough terrain they might encounter on a damaged runway. It’s also big — but it’s big for a purpose. Because ARFF vehicles don’t have to navigate the confines of city streets, they can be built bigger, carry more water, more rescue equipment, and more personnel than conventional fire trucks.
As the newest members of the DFW Fire-Rescue fleet, these Striker Volterra Electric ARFF vehicles represent a significant step in DFW’s broader plan to replace its legacy fleet with a modern, electrified response system, while also making DFW the largest Striker Volterra Electric ARFF fleet operator in the US.
“Enhancing performance by reducing response times is the key driver of transitioning to these new vehicles,” said Daniel White, DFW Fire-Rescue Chief. “The Striker Volterra vehicles are faster and more agile than our current fleet. Because they are also safe for our firefighters and conscious for the environment, this investment represents a rare win-win-win, delivering operational benefits while ensuring the safety of our responders and the community we serve.”
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The Striker Volterra Electric 6×6 ARFF uses a proprietary Oshkosh electric powertrain and an electro-mechanical infinitely variable transmission (read: CVT) paired to an integrated diesel generator. The setup enables zero-emission electric operation during normal station entry, standby, and low-speed tasks, eliminating firefighter exposure to their ARFF’s diesel exhaust 99% of the time. For sustained high-power demands during active fire suppression, the system seamlessly draws from both the battery and generator, ensuring uninterrupted pumping power and performance without operator intervention.
“Our commitment goes far beyond delivering a vehicle,” said Travis Ownby, sales specialist with Siddons-Martin Emergency Group. “It’s about helping departments like DFW Fire-Rescue lead the way in operational excellence and sustainability. We’re proud to support their mission with the Striker Volterra Electric ARFF vehicles.”
The addition of the Striker Volterra Electric ARFF vehicles also supports DFW’s transition to fluorine-free firefighting foam in line with FAA guidance and the industry’s move away from PFAS-based agents for a more environmentally responsible response capability across the airport.
Electrek’s Take
DFW ARFF fleet; via Oshkosh.
With the relatively short distances driven and extreme loads involved, airports present a nearly ideal use case for battery-electric vehicles in general, and their immediate off-the-line torque, improved efficiency, and ability to operate much more quietly than diesels (facilitating emergency crews’ communications) could make all the difference in an emergency situation where lives are quite literally on the line.
Plus, as demand for on-road fossil fuels drops, airports and airlines (historically responsible for about 4% Earth’s global warming) are becoming a bigger and bigger slice of a rapidly shrinking pie when it comes to fossil fuel emissions. Or, as OshKosk put it, “As airports continue to prioritize sustainability and operational efficiency, the Striker Volterra electric ARFF stands out as a forward-thinking solution that meets today’s demands while preparing for tomorrow’s challenges.”
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