Tesla will finally unveil a planned expansion of its “master plan” on March 1st at the company’s “Investor Day” summit at Giga Texas, said CEO Elon Musk today.
Tesla announced its “Investor Day” event last month, to occur in March. This is a new event by Tesla, seemingly separate from the annual shareholder event, where some investors will be invited to see updates on Tesla’s progress. The event will be livestreamed as well. In the past, Tesla has held a “Battery Day” and an “AI Day” focusing on those topics.
The company said that Investor Day would include factory tours and discussion of Tesla’s long-term expansion plans and its upcoming generation 3 vehicle platform. Its announcement came after the end of Tesla’s worst year in the stock market ever, dropping some 65% in 2022. We now know that Investor Day will include Tesla’s newest “master plan.”
Musk first teased this expansion of Tesla’s “Master Plan” last March, meaning almost a year has passed since it was first publicly mentioned. We thought there was a chance the plan would be unveiled at Investor Day, and that prediction was confirmed today.
This is the third version of the company’s “master plan,” the first of which was posted in 2006.
Master Plan Part One
At first, Tesla’s “secret master plan” was a cheeky blog post on the company’s original blog site. The goal was to lay out the vision behind Tesla as a company, and let people know what the company was planning to do. The idea was, instead of auto industry plans being shrouded in secrecy, Tesla would be upfront about what it wanted to do to change the industry – to lead us into an all-electric future.
So, the four steps of the original plan went thusly:
Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
These referred to the original Tesla Roadster, the Tesla Model S (which was originally intended to start at $50,000 after credits), and the Tesla Model 3 (originally intended to start at $35,000).
Then, ten years down the line, in 2016, the company had finished the first two steps and was in the process of acquiring SolarCity and putting the final touches on the Model 3, and thus, the end of the plan was in sight. So it was time for an update.
Master Plan Part Two
Tesla’s “Master Plan, Part Deux” was less cheeky, but again laid out the future plans of the company. In short, these were the four steps this time around:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren’t using it
These steps were a little more complicated, a little more specific, and perhaps a little more aspirational. And Tesla has seen perhaps less success bringing them to market than the steps of the original plan.
Step 1 has been completed, and some customers do have solar roofs, but installations have never really gotten off the ground in large numbers, and Tesla has drastically cut back on installations of solar roofs.
Step 2 is basically complete, depending on how we define “major.” Cybertruck is nearing production, and is probably about as close to market as Model 3 was at the time Part Deux was posted. Tesla Semi is on the road now, and Tesla has both large and mid-size luxury sedans and crossovers available. These are most of the main “major” segments of vehicles, though Tesla does not have a truly affordable car (even its “$35k” model now starts at $43,940 after a recent huge price drop) or any small sedan or hatchback. Or a sportscar, for that matter, but that’s not really a major segment.
Step 3 could be argued, but requires heavy massaging of the data. Tesla’s most recent Autopilot safety report shows one accident per 4.31 million miles while activated, compared to one accident per 484,000 miles for average vehicles. This is about 10x, but doesn’t take into account that Autopilot is mostly used on highways, which are dramatically safer than city roads, and new cars are safer than older cars as well. When comparing to Tesla cars without Autopilot active, Autopilot is only about 2.7x safer “than manual” – and again, this does not account for highway vs. surface street differences.
And step 4 is not even close (unless you listen to Musk, who has been promising self-driving tech “by this time next year” for about ten years now).
So, execution of this plan has been a little more equivocal than the first. Nevertheless, Tesla sees a need to issue an update regardless, this time seven years after the previous plan was posted, instead of ten.
Master Plan, Part Three
So, what’s left for Master Plan Part Three?
Well, Musk’s announcement today suggested that “the path to a fully sustainable energy future for Earth will be presented on March 1”:
Tesla has previously said that Master Plan Part 3 is “all about achieving very large scale” in vehicle and battery pack production, including mining and refining, enough to “actually shift the entire energy infrastructure of earth.” Tesla has recently considered getting into mining, which could end up being part of the master plan update, and is rumored to be looking to build a factory in Mexico as well.
Musk’s statement today suggests that the plan won’t just include discussion of cars, but also sustainable energy options. Tesla’s current sustainable energy products include solar system installations, solar roof tiles, and stationary battery installations with Powerwalls (for home storage) and Powerpacks (for grid storage). Then there’s Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant program, where Powerwall owners can join a distributed network of energy storage to help back up the grid in times of need.
These are basically covered in step 4 of the first master plan, and step 1 of the second master plan, so we suspect they will make an appearance in the third master plan.
It seems likely that we’ll see something similar to the incomplete points of the last master plan, perhaps having to do with autonomous driving. Particularly, maybe we’ll hear an update on the dedicated robotaxi which Tesla has alluded to multiple times.
Beyond that, the image chosen for the advertisement is notable, as it seems to be a large repeating pattern of many stamped car bodies. This refers to the previously-announced focus on production scaling, as Tesla still plans to scale car production and deliveries by ~50% per year for the foreseeable future. Tesla delivered 1.3 million in 2022, which was up 40% from 2021, and wants to deliver 1.8-2 million cars in 2023.
And perhaps, even though Tesla used pictures of a Model 3 body, it might announce a new, even-more-mass-production model.
Tesla has previously mentioned that Investor Day would include discussion of its “generation 3” platform, which is expected to be more affordable than the Model 3/Y platform. Since those cars were originally meant to start at around $35k, the next step was to release a vehicle starting at around $25k, but Tesla has gone back and forth on whether that car was in the plans.
We suspect we’ll find out on March 1 whether it is.
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View of an offshore wind energy park during a press moment of Orsted, on Tuesday 06 August 2024, on the transportation of goods with Heavy Lift Cargo Drones to the offshore wind turbines in the Borssele 1 and 2 wind farm in Zeeland, Netherlands.
Nicolas Maeterlinck | Afp | Getty Images
Shares in wind farm developer Orsted tumbled soon as trading kicked off on Monday after the U.S. government ordered the company to halt construction of a nearly completed project.
By mid-morning, the company’s shares were around 17% lower, with shares hitting a record low according to LSEG data.
Late on Friday the U.S.’ Bureau of Ocean Energy Management had issued a stop-work order for the Revolution Wind Project off of Rhode Island. According to Orsted, the project is 80% complete and 45 out of 65 wind turbines have been installed.
The company also said that it would comply with the U.S. order and that it was considering options to resolve the issue and press ahead with construction.
The order comes at a critical time for Orsted, which is seeking to raise much-needed capital under plans that analysts suggested were now under pressure.
Orsted had announced plans for a 60 billion Danish kroner ($9.4 billion) rights issue earlier this month. On Monday, the company said it would continue with the proposal, noting that it had the support of its majority stakeholder, the Danish state.
Shares have pulled back sharply since the rights issue plans were announced.
In a Monday note, Jacob Pedersen, head of equity research at Sydbank, said the potential financial consequences of the U.S.’ order had led to uncertainty about whether Orsted would be able to continue with its capital raising plans.
“The financial consequences of the stop-work order will at best be the ongoing costs of the work being stopped,” he said, according to a Google translation. In the worst-case scenario, the Revolution Wind Project would never supply electricity to the U.S., he added.
“In that case, Orsted faces a double-digit billion write-down and significant additional costs to get out of contracts. This will, by all accounts, increase the capital raising requirement to significantly more than DKK 60 billion,” Pedersen said.
He that the company’s Monday announcement to push ahead with its rights issue plans suggested it did not expect the worst-case outcome and was expecting its 60 billion Danish kroner target to be sufficient.
“Orsted’s assessment of this is positive – but it is no guarantee that it will end up like this,” Pedersen said.
President Donald Trump‘s attack on solar and wind projects threatens to raise energy prices for consumers and undermine a stretched electric grid that’s already straining to meet rapidly growing demand, renewable energy executives warn.
Trump has long said wind power turbines are unattractive and endanger birds, and that solar installations take up too much land. This week, he said his administration will not approve solar and wind projects, the latest salvo in a campaign the president has waged against the renewable energy industry since taking office.
“We will not approve wind or farmer destroying Solar,” Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday. “The days of stupidity are over in the USA!!!”
Trump’s statement this week seemed to confirm industry fears that the Interior Department will block federal permits for solar and wind projects. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum took control of all permit approvals last month in a move that the American Clean Power Association criticized as “obstruction,” calling it “unprecedented political review.”
The Interior Department blocking permits would slow the growth of the entire solar and wind industry, top executives at renewable developers Arevon, Avantus and Engie North America told CNBC.
Even solar and wind projects on private land may need approvals from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service if, for example, a waterway or animal species is affected, the executives told CNBC. The three power companies are among the top 10 renewable developers in the U.S., according to energy research firm Enverus.
The Interior Department “will not give preferential treatment to massive, unreliable projects that make no sense for the American people or that risk harming communities or the environment,” a spokesperson told CNBC when asked if new permits would be issued for solar and wind construction.
Choking off renewables will worsen a looming power supply shortage, harm the electric grid and lead to higher electricity prices for consumers, said Kevin Smith, CEO of Arevon, a solar and battery storage developer headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, that’s active in 17 states. Arevon operates five gigawatts of power equivalent to $10 billion of capital investment.
“I don’t think everybody realizes how big the crunch is going to be,” Smith said. “We’re making that crunch more and more difficult with these policy changes.”
Uncertainty hits investment
The red tape at the Interior Department and rising costs from Trump’s copper and steel tariffs have created market instability that makes planning difficult, the renewable executives said.
“We don’t want to sign contracts until we know what the playing field is,” said Cliff Graham, CEO of Avantus, a solar and battery storage developer headquartered in San Diego. Avantus has built three gigawatts of solar and storage across the desert Southwest.
“I can do whatever you want me to do and have a viable business, I just need the rules set and in place,” Graham said.
Engie North America, the U.S. arm of a global energy company based in Paris, is slashing its planned investment in the U.S. by 50% due to tariffs and regulatory uncertainty, said David Carroll, the chief renewables officer who leads the American subsidiary. Engie could cut its plans even more, he said.
Engie’s North American subsidiary, headquartered in Houston, will operate about 11 gigawatts of solar, battery storage and wind power by year end.
Multinationals like Engie have long viewed the U.S. as one of the most stable business environments in the world, Carroll said. But that assessment is changing in Engie’s boardroom and across the industry, he said.
“The stability of the U.S. business market is no longer really the gold standard,” Carroll said.
Rising costs
Arevon is seeing costs for solar and battery storage projects increase by as much as 30% due to the metal tariffs, said Smith, the CEO. Many renewable developers are renegotiating power prices with utilities to cover the sudden spike in costs because projects no longer pencil out financially, he said.
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act ends two key tax credits for solar and wind projects in late 2027, making conditions even more challenging. The investment tax credit supported new renewable construction and the production credit boosted clean electricity generation.
Those tax credits were just passed on to consumers, Smith said. Their termination and the rising costs from tariffs will mean higher utility bills for families and businesses, he said.
The price that Avantus charges for solar power has roughly doubled to $60 per megawatt-hour as interest rates and tariffs have increased over the years, said CEO Graham. Prices will surge again to around $100 per megawatt-hour when the tax credits are gone, he said.
“The small manufacturers, small companies and mom and pops will see their electric bills go up, and it’ll start pushing the small entrepreneurs out of the industry or out of the marketplace,” Graham said.
Renewable projects that start construction by next July, a year after the One Big Beautiful Act became law, will still qualify for the tax credits. Arevon, Avantus and Engie are moving forward with projects currently under construction, but the outlook is less certain for projects later in the decade.
The U.S. will see a big downturn in new renewable power generation starting in the second half of 2026 through 2028 as new projects no longer qualify for tax credits, said Smith, the head of Arevon.
“The small- and medium-sized players that can’t take the financial risk, some of them will disappear,” Smith said. “You’re going to see less projects built in the sector.”
Artificial intelligence power crunch
Fewer renewable power plants could increase the risk of brownouts or blackouts, Smith said. Electricity demand is surging from the data centers that technology companies are building to train artificial intelligence systems. PJM Interconnection, the largest electrical grid in the U.S. that coordinates wholesale electricity in 13 states and the District of Columbia, has warned of tight power supplies because too little new generation is coming online.
Renewables are the power source that can most quickly meet demand, Smith at Arevon said. More than 90% of the power waiting to connect to the grid is solar, battery storage or wind, according to data from Enverus.
“The power requirement is largely going to be coming from the new energy sector or not at all,” so without it, “the grid becomes substantially hampered,” Smith said.
Trump is prioritizing oil, gas and nuclear power as “the most effective and reliable tools to power our country,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.
“President Trump serves the American people who voted to implement his America First energy agenda – not solar and wind executives who are sad that Biden’s Green New Scam subsidies are ending,” Kelly said.
But new natural gas plants won’t come online for another five years due to supply issues, new nuclear power is a decade away and no new coal plants are on the drawing board.
Utilities may have to turn away data centers at some point because there isn’t enough surplus power to run them, and no one wants to risk blackouts at hospitals, schools and homes, Arevon’s Smith said. This would pressure the U.S. in its race against China to master AI, a Trump administration priority.
“The panic in the data center, AI world is probably not going to set in for another 12 months or so, when they start realizing that they can’t get the power they need in some of these areas where they’re planning to build data centers,” Smith said.
“Then we’ll see what happens,” said the University of Chicago MBA, who’s worked in the energy industry for 35 years. “There may be a reversal in policy to try and build whatever we can and get power onto the grid.”
Over the weekend, Tesla began offering many Cybertruck trade-in estimated values above the original purchase price, apparently due to a glitch in its system.
Tesla offers online trade-in estimates for individuals considering purchasing a vehicle from them.
Over the last few days, Cybertruck owners who submitted their vehicles through the system were surprised to see Tesla offering extremely high valuations on the vehicle, often above what they originally paid for the electric truck.
Here are a few examples:
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$79,200 for a 2025 Cybertruck AWD with 18,000 miles. Since this is a 2025 model year, it was eligible for the tax credit and Tesla is offering the same price as new without incentive.
Here Tesla offered $118,800 for a 2024 Cybertruck ‘Cyberbeast’ tri-motor with 21,000 miles.
In this example, Tesla offers $11,000 more than the owner originally paid for a 2024 Cybertruck.
So, trade in the Foundation Series Cybertruck AWD for $11k more than I paid for it originally, re-buy an AWD with FSD for $79,490 after the tax credit.
I’d lose free supercharging for life, Cyberwheels, and white interior.
The trade-in estimates made no sense. Tesla has been known to offer more attractive estimates online and then come lower with the official final offer, but this is on a whole different level.
Some speculated that Tesla’s trade-in estimate system was malfunctioning, while others thought Tesla was indirectly recalling early Cybertrucks.
It appears to be the former.
Some Tesla Cybertruck owners who tried to go through a new order with their Cybertruck as a trade-in were told by Tesla advisors that the system was “glitching” and they would not be honoring those prices.
Tesla told buyers that it would be refunding its usually “non-refundable” order fee.
Electrek’s Take
That’s a weird glitch. I assume that it was trying to change how the trade-in value would be estimated and the new math didn’t work for the Cybertruck for whatever reason.
It’s the only thing that makes sense to me.
The Cybertruck’s value is already quite weird due to the fact that Tesla still has new vehicles made in 2024, which are not eligible for the tax credit incentive, while the new ones made in 2025 are eligible.
There’s also the Foundation Series, which bundles many features for a $20,000 higher price.
All these things affect the value and can make it hard to compare with new Cybertrucks offered with 0% interest.
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