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This winter parts of the UK have already been hit by freezing temperatures and heavy snow – but a weather event likely taking place in the coming days has sparked fears the country could soon face an icy blast.

A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is “now likely” to take place, according to forecasters – and could bring the return of bitterly cold conditions before spring.

Sky News weather producer Chris England says “sudden stratospheric warmings can lead to colder conditions over parts of the Northern Hemisphere through their interaction with the jet stream”.

But he warned these “high pressure systems” which are formed feeding “cold air down from the north and east” are not guaranteed.

What is a sudden stratospheric warming event?

SSW describes an event when “rapid warming occurs high up in the stratosphere”, according to the Met Office, but it can have consequences in our weather down on the surface in the weeks that follow.

This rapid warming in the stratosphere – between around 10km and 50km above the earth’s surface – is so high we don’t feel it on the ground.

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The event follows a weakening of winds in what’s called the stratospheric polar vortex, high over the Arctic.

“The cold air then descends very rapidly in the polar vortex and this causes the temperature in the stratosphere to rise very rapidly, as much as 50C over only a few days; hence the term sudden stratospheric warming,” the Met Office says.

This event can impact the shape of the jet stream as the cold air sinks – sometimes leading to a “long spell of dry, cold weather” across the UK and northern Europe.

Get the latest 5-day weather forecast where you are

Does it happen every year and will it happen this year?

SSW doesn’t happen every year, and when it does, it doesn’t always influence our weather.

According to Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, “there is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring” this year.

The UK has been hit by extreme winter snow events in recent years, for example the so-called Beast from the East – which occurred in 2018.

But just because much of Britain was coated in snow back then due to a link with a SSW event – it doesn’t mean it will happen again this year.

What could it mean for the UK’s weather and when?

As mentioned, a major SSW event can be linked to freezing temperatures such as the ones seen in 2018 – but there are no guarantees.

Prof Scaife says: “Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”

Sky’s England adds: “Other factors such as the distribution of warm and cold areas across the globe also have an influence.

“When they do develop they may push the cold weather across other parts of the world, e.g. China, North America, rather than Europe.

“And even when Europe is impacted, relatively small changes may mean that central and eastern Europe bear the brunt of the cold.”

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Snow and ice blanket Marine park on the coast at South Shields in the North East. Snow and ice have swept across parts of the UK, with cold wintry conditions set to continue for days. Picture date: Tuesday December 13, 2022.
Image:
Snow and ice blanket Marine Park on the coast at South Shields in the North East in December 2022

So can the UK bank on heavy snow falling in the next few weeks?

In short, no.

Unfortunately, it’s too early to tell how weather forecasts will change following a SSW event.

Current forecasts “are not showing any major cold snap for the UK as a result of the current SSW”, England says.

“That doesn’t mean we won’t have cold spells – it’s cold now, after all, but that’s due to the normal progression of high and low pressure systems and nothing to do with an SSW.”

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UK weather: Scottish hamlet reaches -18C in coldest January night in 15 years

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UK weather: Scottish hamlet reaches -18C in coldest January night in 15 years

Temperatures in a hamlet in northern Scotland fell to -18.7C (-1.66F) overnight – the UK’s coldest January night in 15 years, the Met Office has said.

Altnaharra, in the northern region of the Highlands, reached the lowest temperature while nearby Kinbrace reached -17.9C (-0.22F).

It is the coldest January overnight temperature since 2010, when temperatures dropped below -15C several times at locations across the UK, including -22.3C (-8.14F) on 8 January in Altnaharra.

Forecasters had previously said there was a very small probability it could reach -19C.

A Highland cow grazes in a snow-covered field near Shotts, North Lanarkshire. Temperatures will continue to fall over the coming days, with the mercury potentially reaching minus 20C in northern parts of the UK on Friday night. Weather warnings for ice are in place across the majority of Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as large parts of the east of England. Picture date: Friday January 10, 2025.
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A Highland cow grazing near Shotts, North Lanarkshire. Pic: PA

Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin said: “Friday night into Saturday morning may well be the nadir of this current cold spell.”

Temperatures for large parts of the UK are set to fall again as the cold weather continues.

St Andrew's church, Kiln Pit in Durham Pic: PA
Image:
St Andrew’s church at Kiln Pit in Durham. Pic: PA

Met Office meteorologist Zoe Hutin said: “We’ve still got tonight to come, and tomorrow (Saturday) night could also be chilly as well.

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“Temperatures for tomorrow night, it will be mainly eastern parts that see temperatures dropping widely below freezing, so East Anglia, the northeast of England, northern and eastern Scotland as well.

“So another chilly night to come on Saturday, but then as we go into Sunday and into Monday, then we can start to expect temperatures to recover somewhat.

“I won’t rule out the risk of seeing something around or just below freezing again on Sunday night into Monday, but it won’t be quite so dramatic as the temperatures that we’re going to experience as we go overnight tonight.”

Ugo Sassi from Cambridge skates on a frozen flooded field in Upware, Cambridgeshire. The Cambridgeshire Fens were the birthplace of British speed skating and require four nights of frost, with a temperature of -4 or colder and little or no thawing during the days in between, to make ice strong enough to skate on. Temperatures will continue to fall over the coming days, with the mercury potentially reaching minus 20C in northern parts of the UK on Friday night. Weather warnings for ice are in pla
Image:
Skating on a frozen flooded field in Upware, Cambridgeshire. Pic: PA

On Monday, temperatures are expected to be more in line with the seasonal norm, at about 7C to 8C.

A family walk across Hothfield Common in frosty conditions near Ashford in Kent.
Pic: PA
Image:
A family walk across Hothfield Common in frosty conditions near Ashford in Kent. Pic: PA

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The freezing conditions have led to travel disruption, with Manchester Airport closing both its runways on Thursday morning because of “significant levels of snow”. They were later reopened.

Transport for Wales closed some railway lines because of damage to tracks.

Hundreds of schools in Scotland and about 90 in Wales were shut on Thursday.

Meanwhile, staff and customers at a pub thought to be Britain’s highest were finally able to leave on Thursday after being snowed in.

The Tan Hill Inn in Richmond, North Yorkshire, is 1,732 feet (528m) above sea level.

Six staff and 23 visitors were stuck, the pub said on Facebook.

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Government contract ends for controversial asylum barge Bibby Stockholm

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Government contract ends for controversial asylum barge Bibby Stockholm

The government contract for the controversial asylum barge in Dorset has ended.

The last asylum seekers are believed to have left Bibby Stockholm at the end of November after Labour said it would have cost more than £20m to run in 2025.

Its closure this month was expected, and on Friday the management firm and the Home Office confirmed to Sky News the contract had now expired.

It’s currently unclear when Bibby Stockholm will leave Portland and what it will be used for next.

The Conservative government started using the vessel in August 2023.

It said putting nearly 500 men on board while they waited for an asylum decision was cheaper than paying for hotel rooms.

However, it was controversial from the start and sparked legal challenges and protests.

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August: 2023: Barge reminds migrant of Islamic State

Days after the first group boarded there was an outbreak of Legionella bacteria in the water system and it had to be evacuated for two months.

In December 2023, an Albanian asylum seeker, Leonard Farruku, died on board.

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A Home Office spokesperson said the government was determined to reform the asylum system to make it operate “swiftly, firmly and fairly”.

“This includes our accommodation sites, as we continue to identify a range of options to reduce the use of hotels,” the new statement added.

“We are already closing some hotels and will continue to engage with local authorities and key stakeholders as part of this process.”

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How is your local NHS coping under winter pressures?

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How is your local NHS coping under winter pressures?

Pressure on hospitals is particularly high this winter, with more than a dozen declaring critical incidents in recent days.

Hospitals struggle every winter with additional pressures due to the impact of cold weather, but the early arrival of flu this season and high volume of cases meant Christmas and New Year’s weeks were even busier than usual.

There are currently at least 20 hospitals that have declared critical incidents in England, although this is a fast-moving picture, and some trusts will go into critical incident for as little as half an hour.

The latest NHS winter situation reports give a more detailed look at the level of pressure experienced by individual trusts, including those with the worst ambulance handover delays and highest levels of flu patients.

Ambulance handover delays

When a patient arrives at a hospital in an ambulance, clinical guidelines suggest that it should take no longer than 15 minutes to transfer them into emergency care.

It is now common for handovers to regularly exceed this timeframe, however, when emergency departments are overcrowded and lack the capacity to keep up with new patient arrivals.

This is risky for patients because it delays their assessment and treatment by clinicians, and also reduces the availability of ambulances to respond to new incidents.

The trust with the longest delays was University Hospitals Plymouth, with an average handover time of three hours and 33 minutes over the week – two hours and 40 minutes longer than the average for England. It also recorded the longest average handover times for a single day, at five hours and 14 minutes on New Year’s Day.

Use the table below to search for local ambulance handover times:

On 7 January, University Hospitals Plymouth declared a critical incident at Derriford Hospital due to “significant and rising demand for hospital care”, though this has since been stood down.

The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital Trust had an average ambulance handover time of three hours and 15 minutes, increasing by more than an hour from one hour and 51 minutes the week before.

In Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust, 83% of handovers took more than 30 minutes, the highest share among areas dealing with more than five ambulance arrivals per day.

This area also recently declared and then stood down a critical incident.

In total across England, 43 trusts out of 127 had average handover times of more than an hour, while nine areas had average handover times of more than two hours.

Flu

This winter’s flu wave arrived earlier than usual and has hit health services hard.

Over New Year’s week, there were 5,407 flu patients in hospitals in England on average each day, more than three times higher than during the same week last year and increasing by 20% from the week before.

The worst impacted trusts were Northumbria Healthcare and University Hospitals Birmingham, with 15% and 13% of all available beds occupied by flu patients respectively in the latest week.

Wirral University Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust had among the biggest increase in flu patients from the previous week, more than doubling from 18 to 42 patients per day on average.

Use the table below to search for local flu hospitalisations:

There are some indications that flu activity may have now peaked, with national flu surveillance showing a decrease in positive flu tests in the latest week, though activity remains at high levels.

Bed occupancy

Current NHS guidance is that a maximum of 92% of hospital beds should be occupied to reduce negative risks associated with overfilled beds.

These risks include the impact on patient flow resulting from it being more difficult to find beds for patients, and negative impacts on performance and waiting times, as well as being linked to increased infection rates.

In the week to 5 January, 92.8% of 102,546 open hospital beds were available each day on average, not far off the recommended level.

However, bed occupancy was very high in some trusts, with more than 95% of beds occupied in 43 trusts on average over the week.

The trust with the highest rate of bed occupancy was Wye Valley NHS Trust, with 99.9% of 332 beds occupied on average throughout the week.

There was only one day when beds weren’t fully occupied, on 3 January, when two beds of 322 were available.

Use the table below to search for local bed occupancy:

Kettering General Hospital NHS Trust recorded bed occupancy of 98.5% over the week. This trust declared a critical incident on 8 January.

Part of the problem for bed availability is prolonged hospital stays – also known as bed-blocking.

This is often linked to pressures in other parts of the health and social care system, for example when patients can’t be discharged to appropriate social care providers even though they are ready to leave hospital.

Just under half of beds occupied by patients in English hospitals last week were occupied by long-stay patients who had been there for seven or more days.

In seven trusts, at least three in five beds were occupied by long-stay patients, while in Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust the figure was more than four in five beds.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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