Ukraine war: Putin ‘is playing for time’ and plans to ‘bomb his way to negotiating table’, European spy agency warns
Russia will not run out of weapons or troops for its war “any time soon” and Vladimir Putin thinks he can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table, a European spy agency has warned.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) – the Estonian equivalent of the UK’s MI6 – also said that a Russian victory in Ukraine would increase the probability of an armed conflict between Moscow and the NATO alliance. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
Kaupo Rosin, the agency’s new director general, said in a foreword to an annual report on international security published on Wednesday that the Russian president’s goal in Ukraine has not changed despite setbacks over the past 12 months, which thwarted his plan for a quick coup.
Two regions identified where Russia could launch offensive – Ukraine war latest updates
“For now, there is still enough fuel to keep the war machine going,” he wrote. “Russia will not run out of cannon fodder, Soviet-era armaments or propaganda-induced imperialism any time soon.”
The comments contrasted with remarks made last October by Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of the UK spy agency GCHQ, who said that Russian “supplies and munitions are running out”.
There is a discrepancy between how different nations assess the level of Russian stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, with the quantity calculated as far higher if outdated Soviet-era munitions – that are far less safe – are included.
Yet, the reality on the ground in eastern Ukraine has seen little let-up in Russian bombardments against Ukrainian positions throughout the winter months.
The Estonian spy chief played down any suggestion of an imminent breakthrough by Russia after so far failing to conquer its neighbour and paying a heavy price.
The United States has said that Russia has suffered some 188,000 casualties so far.
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Who is winning the war in Ukraine?
Putin ‘playing for time’
“A quality leap in Russia’s war-fighting capability is very unlikely,” Mr Rosin wrote, instead suggesting that whichever side can endure the longest will be key.
“Putin is playing for time, believing that Ukraine and the West will wear out before Russia. Putin thinks he can ‘bomb’ Ukraine to the negotiating table.”
Members of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade prepare to fire a howitzer in the Donetsk region
The Estonian spy agency’s full report, entitled International Security and Estonia 2023, said that Moscow was ready to “continue raising the stakes” in Ukraine through further mobilisation of its population and more strikes against Ukrainian power infrastructure.
Mr Putin already ordered a partial mobilisation of more than 300,000 personnel last September. About half are thought to have been pushed quickly into the fight but the rest have been receiving training and are expected to form part of a new offensive by the spring, according to western officials.
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Ukraine’s military training ‘remarkable’
Putin believes Ukraine’s resilience and western support will break before Russia
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who is visiting the UK on Wednesday, said last week that the Russian escalation has already started in the east, where the level of attacks has been increasing.
“Russia believes that time is on its side in the war in Ukraine,” the Estonian report warned.
“In our assessment, Putin believes that Ukraine’s resilience and western support will break before Russia will. Still, in Putin’s opinion, Ukraine has not yet currently suffered enough to reach breaking point.”
Ukraine’s 43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade fire a German howitzer near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
The spy agency said the challenge still posed by Russia underlined the need for western allies to continue their support to Ukraine – something that was not just in Ukraine’s interests but also in the interests of the wider western world.
“European security in the medium term directly depends on the Ukrainians’ will to determine their own future and western unity in supporting Ukraine with all necessary means,” the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service report said.
It added: “The probability of a military conflict between NATO and Russia would increase if Russia were to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine’s victory in the war against Russia would also improve regional security.”
Storm Shadow cruise missiles made in the UK and donated to Ukraine have once again been used to strike targets inside Russia.
The long-range weapons – which cost roughly £2m each – have been used to devastating effect in the Black Sea, sinking or damaging several Russian ships, and now against a chemical plant.
Last year, Ukraine’s allies lifted restrictions on Storm Shadows and other long-range missiles, meaning Kyiv’s military can use them against targets across the border.
Follow latest: Storm Shadow missiles used in ‘massive’ attack on Russia
A Storm Shadow missile system. Pic: Gary Dawson/Shutterstock
What are Storm Shadow missiles?
Storm Shadows are cruise missiles developed by the UK and France in the 1990s.
Launched from aircraft, they have a range more than 155 miles, manufacturer MBDA says, and can travel at speeds exceeding 600mph.
The missiles can be used with high precision for deep strikes while evading detection, the manufacturer says.
They have been used by the RAF and French air force and in the Gulf, Iraq and Libya, and more recently have been used by Ukrainian forces.
What sets them apart from some other projectiles is they use terrain mapping to navigate to their target, rather than relying just on GPS, military analyst Sean Bell says.
A Tornado GR4 with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Pic: Crown copyright
How have they been used in Ukraine?
Back in May 2023, the UK government announced it would provide Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles – the first country to do so.
Since then they have been used by Kyiv’s defenders to strike Russian targets inside Ukraine and also inside Russia.
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While operational details of their use do not always emerge, it has been reported Storm Shadows have been used against targets including military headquarters and ships.
Storm Shadows can likely be operated entirely from within Ukraine, though probably with the assistance of intelligence gathered by Western surveillance planes over international waters.
A police officer has been injured after a night of violent protests outside an asylum hotel in Dublin – with six arrests made.
Bricks were thrown and fireworks were discharged outside the Citywest Hotel – with glass bottles used as missiles and a police van set on fire.
A Garda helicopter was also targeted with lasers, and the police service says some of those on the streets were seen carrying garden forks.
Pic: PA
Pic: PA
Commissioner Justin Kelly added: “This was obviously not a peaceful protest. The actions this evening can only be described as thuggery. This was a mob intent on violence.
“We will now begin the process of identifying those who committed crimes and we will bring those involved in this violence to justice.”
It is the second night of demonstrations after an alleged sexual assault in its vicinity in the early hours of Monday morning.
Some of the crowd threw stones and other missiles at the public order officers as they moved the protesters back – and water cannon was deployed at the scene.
A line of officers was preventing the protesters from approaching the hotel.
Police officers block protesters outside the hotel. Pic: PA
‘Those involved will be brought to justice’
Ireland’s premier, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, paid tribute to the officers who were on the frontline of the protests.
“There can be no justification for the vile abuse against them, or the attempted assaults and attacks on members of the force that will shock all right-thinking people,” he said.
Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan said those involved in the violence will be brought to justice.
“The scenes of public disorder we have witnessed at Citywest must be condemned,” he said.
“People threw missiles at Gardai, threw fireworks at them and set a Garda vehicle on fire.
“This is unacceptable and will result in a forceful response from the Gardai.
“Those involved will be brought to justice.”
‘No excuse’ for violence
The minister said a man had been arrested and had appeared in court in relation to the alleged assault in the vicinity of the hotel.
He added: “While I am not in a position to comment any further on this criminal investigation, I have been advised that there is no ongoing threat to public safety in the area.”
He said attacks on officers would “not be tolerated”, adding: “Peaceful protest is a cornerstone of our democracy. Violence is not.
“There is no excuse for the scenes we have witnessed.”
The demonstration on Monday night passed without a significant incident.
It comes two years after anti-immigrant demonstrators triggered a major riot in the centre of Dublin after three young children were stabbed.
A police van has been set on fire and missiles have been thrown at officers as protesters gathered outside a hotel used to house asylum seekers in Dublin.
It is the second night of demonstrations outside the Citywest Hotel after an alleged sexual assault in its vicinity in the early hours of Monday morning.
A large crowd has gathered in the area and members of the Garda’s public order unit have been deployed.
Footage from the scene showed a Garda vehicle on fire as well as several protesters displaying Irish flags.
Many protesters carried Republic of Ireland flags
Some of the crowd threw stones and other missiles at the public order officers as they moved the protesters back.
A Garda helicopter hovered overhead and a water cannon was deployed on the scene.
Ireland’s justice minister, Jim O’Callaghan, said those involved will be brought to justice.
“The scenes of public disorder we have witnessed at Citywest tonight must be condemned,” he said.
“People threw missiles at Gardai, threw fireworks at them and set a Garda vehicle on fire.
“This is unacceptable and will result in a forceful response from the Gardai.
“Those involved will be brought to justice.”
The minister said a man had been arrested and had appeared in court in relation to the alleged assault in the vicinity of the hotel.
He added: “While I am not in a position to comment any further on this criminal investigation, I have been advised that there is no ongoing threat to public safety in the area.
He said attacks on gardai will “not be tolerated”, adding: “Peaceful protest is a cornerstone of our democracy. Violence is not.
“There is no excuse for the scenes we have witnessed tonight.”
It was the second night of protest outside the hotel, which is being used as state accommodation for people seeking international protection. The demonstration on Monday night passed without a significant incident.
It comes two years after anti-immigrant demonstrators triggered a major riot in the centre of Dublin after three young children were stabbed.
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