Russia will not run out of weapons or troops for its war “any time soon” and Vladimir Putin thinks he can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table, a European spy agency has warned.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) – the Estonian equivalent of the UK’s MI6 – also said that a Russian victory in Ukraine would increase the probability of an armed conflict between Moscow and the NATO alliance. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
Kaupo Rosin, the agency’s new director general, said in a foreword to an annual report on international security published on Wednesday that the Russian president’s goal in Ukraine has not changed despite setbacks over the past 12 months, which thwarted his plan for a quick coup.
“For now, there is still enough fuel to keep the war machine going,” he wrote. “Russia will not run out of cannon fodder, Soviet-era armaments or propaganda-induced imperialism any time soon.”
There is a discrepancy between how different nations assess the level of Russian stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, with the quantity calculated as far higher if outdated Soviet-era munitions – that are far less safe – are included.
Yet, the reality on the ground in eastern Ukraine has seen little let-up in Russian bombardments against Ukrainian positions throughout the winter months.
The Estonian spy chief played down any suggestion of an imminent breakthrough by Russia after so far failing to conquer its neighbour and paying a heavy price.
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The United States has said that Russia has suffered some 188,000 casualties so far.
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3:51
Who is winning the war in Ukraine?
Putin ‘playing for time’
“A quality leap in Russia’s war-fighting capability is very unlikely,” Mr Rosin wrote, instead suggesting that whichever side can endure the longest will be key.
“Putin is playing for time, believing that Ukraine and the West will wear out before Russia. Putin thinks he can ‘bomb’ Ukraine to the negotiating table.”
Image: Members of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade prepare to fire a howitzer in the Donetsk region
The Estonian spy agency’s full report, entitled International Security and Estonia 2023, said that Moscow was ready to “continue raising the stakes” in Ukraine through further mobilisation of its population and more strikes against Ukrainian power infrastructure.
Mr Putin already ordered a partial mobilisation of more than 300,000 personnel last September. About half are thought to have been pushed quickly into the fight but the rest have been receiving training and are expected to form part of a new offensive by the spring, according to western officials.
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0:34
Ukraine’s military training ‘remarkable’
Putin believes Ukraine’s resilience and western support will break before Russia
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who is visiting the UK on Wednesday, said last week that the Russian escalation has already started in the east, where the level of attacks has been increasing.
“Russia believes that time is on its side in the war in Ukraine,” the Estonian report warned.
“In our assessment, Putin believes that Ukraine’s resilience and western support will break before Russia will. Still, in Putin’s opinion, Ukraine has not yet currently suffered enough to reach breaking point.”
Image: Ukraine’s 43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade fire a German howitzer near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
The spy agency said the challenge still posed by Russia underlined the need for western allies to continue their support to Ukraine – something that was not just in Ukraine’s interests but also in the interests of the wider western world.
“European security in the medium term directly depends on the Ukrainians’ will to determine their own future and western unity in supporting Ukraine with all necessary means,” the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service report said.
It added: “The probability of a military conflict between NATO and Russia would increase if Russia were to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine’s victory in the war against Russia would also improve regional security.”
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
Image: The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
Image: The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Image: Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Image: Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
Image: The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
Image: The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
Tens of thousands of people have packed St Peter’s Square as the funeral of Pope Francis begins.
Royals, world leaders and cardinals joined scores of worshippers at the Vatican, as mourning of the 266th pontiff transcended wealth and social class.
In keeping with Francis’s life as a breaker of tradition, many of the more elaborate and expensive rituals customary for the burial of popes have been foregone in favour of simpler options.
Around 200,000 people are attending the funeral, with around 50,000 packing out St Peter’s Square.
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His body had been lying in state since his death aged 88 on Easter Monday, spending the last few days in St Peter’s Basilica to allow mourners to pay their respects.
The Vatican – where the funeral service is taking place – and Rome – where Francis will be laid to rest – are under heavy security, with a no-fly zone in place overhead.
Image: The coffin of Pope Francis is borne aloft by pallbearers. Pic: Reuters
Image: Members of the clergy gathered to say farewell to their pontiff. Pic: Reuters
Francis’s coffin has been taken out into St Peter’s Square where 220 cardinals and 750 bishops and priests are sitting in rows, waiting to say goodbye to the Bishop of Rome.
A series of readings and prayers are being read before the 50,000 faithful gathered before the basilica, and the coffin will be sprinkled with holy water and incense.
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2:27
Singing rings out at the Vatican
Image: Members of the clergy stand in St Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
It began with Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re reading the Penitential Act – a way for the faithful to confess their sinfulness.
This was followed by the Liturgy of the Word, a part in Catholic mass where faithful gather to hear and reflect on the word of God.
Cardinal Re then delivered the homily, speaking about Pope Francis’ life and service to God.
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0:52
Applause breaks out as Zelenskyy arrives
Image: Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re read the homily
The cardinal praised the pontiff as someone who “touched the minds and hearts of people” who was “attentive to the signs of the times”.
He added: “Despite his frailty and suffering towards the end, Pope Francis chose to follow this path of self-giving until the last day of his earthly life.”
He said Francis “was a pope among the people, with an open heart towards everyone”.
Image: Tens of thousands pack St Peter’s Square for the funeral. Pic: AP
Image: Clergy seated during the funeral. Pic: AP
At the end of the mass, the choir will sing in Latin: “May the angels lead you into paradise; may the martyrs come and welcome you and take you into the holy city, the new and eternal Jerusalem.”
After the service, Pope Francis’s body will be taken in procession through the streets of Rome to his final resting place at his favourite church, the Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore.
Image: Worshippers outside the Papal Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore. Pic: Reuters
He will be ushered into the basilica – dedicated to the Virgin Mary – by prisoners and migrants, a last reflection of his priorities as pope.
In a break with tradition, the Popeoutlined in his will his request to be buried “in the ground, without particular ornamentation” but simply with the inscription “Franciscus”.