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Russia will not run out of weapons or troops for its war “any time soon” and Vladimir Putin thinks he can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table, a European spy agency has warned.

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) – the Estonian equivalent of the UK’s MI6 – also said that a Russian victory in Ukraine would increase the probability of an armed conflict between Moscow and the NATO alliance. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

Kaupo Rosin, the agency’s new director general, said in a foreword to an annual report on international security published on Wednesday that the Russian president’s goal in Ukraine has not changed despite setbacks over the past 12 months, which thwarted his plan for a quick coup.

Two regions identified where Russia could launch offensive – Ukraine war latest updates

“For now, there is still enough fuel to keep the war machine going,” he wrote. “Russia will not run out of cannon fodder, Soviet-era armaments or propaganda-induced imperialism any time soon.”

The comments contrasted with remarks made last October by Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of the UK spy agency GCHQ, who said that Russian “supplies and munitions are running out”.

There is a discrepancy between how different nations assess the level of Russian stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, with the quantity calculated as far higher if outdated Soviet-era munitions – that are far less safe – are included.

Yet, the reality on the ground in eastern Ukraine has seen little let-up in Russian bombardments against Ukrainian positions throughout the winter months.

The Estonian spy chief played down any suggestion of an imminent breakthrough by Russia after so far failing to conquer its neighbour and paying a heavy price.

The United States has said that Russia has suffered some 188,000 casualties so far.

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Who is winning the war in Ukraine?

Putin ‘playing for time’

“A quality leap in Russia’s war-fighting capability is very unlikely,” Mr Rosin wrote, instead suggesting that whichever side can endure the longest will be key.

“Putin is playing for time, believing that Ukraine and the West will wear out before Russia. Putin thinks he can ‘bomb’ Ukraine to the negotiating table.”

Members of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (Azov Unit) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepare to fire 152 mm howitzer 2A65 Msta-B, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine
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Members of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade prepare to fire a howitzer in the Donetsk region

The Estonian spy agency’s full report, entitled International Security and Estonia 2023, said that Moscow was ready to “continue raising the stakes” in Ukraine through further mobilisation of its population and more strikes against Ukrainian power infrastructure.

Mr Putin already ordered a partial mobilisation of more than 300,000 personnel last September. About half are thought to have been pushed quickly into the fight but the rest have been receiving training and are expected to form part of a new offensive by the spring, according to western officials.

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Ukraine’s military training ‘remarkable’

Putin believes Ukraine’s resilience and western support will break before Russia

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who is visiting the UK on Wednesday, said last week that the Russian escalation has already started in the east, where the level of attacks has been increasing.

“Russia believes that time is on its side in the war in Ukraine,” the Estonian report warned.

“In our assessment, Putin believes that Ukraine’s resilience and western support will break before Russia will. Still, in Putin’s opinion, Ukraine has not yet currently suffered enough to reach breaking point.”

Ukraine's 43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade fire a German howitzer near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
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Ukraine’s 43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade fire a German howitzer near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

The spy agency said the challenge still posed by Russia underlined the need for western allies to continue their support to Ukraine – something that was not just in Ukraine’s interests but also in the interests of the wider western world.

“European security in the medium term directly depends on the Ukrainians’ will to determine their own future and western unity in supporting Ukraine with all necessary means,” the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service report said.

It added: “The probability of a military conflict between NATO and Russia would increase if Russia were to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine’s victory in the war against Russia would also improve regional security.”

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Power of Russia sanctions lies in US financial system that greases the wheels

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Power of Russia sanctions lies in US financial system that greases the wheels

US sanctions against Russia’s two largest energy companies, the state-owned Rosneft and privately held Lukoil, are perhaps the most significant economic measures imposed by the West since the invasion of Ukraine.

If fully implemented, they have the potential to significantly choke off the flow of fossil fuel revenue that funds Russia’s war machine, but their power lies not in directly denying Russia access to the tankers, ports and refineries that make the oil trade turn, but the US financial system that greases the wheels.

Ever since the invasion, the Russian government has proved masterful at evading sanctions, aided and abetted by allies of economic convenience and an oil industry with decades of experience.

Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy expresses relief at Trump move

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New US sanctions on Russia: What do we know?

While the West, principally the EU, has largely turned off the taps and stopped buying Russian oil, China, India and Turkey became the largest consumers, with a shadow fleet of tankers ensuring exports continued to flow.

Data from the Centre for Research into Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that while fossil fuel revenues have fallen from more than €1bn a day before the war, they have remained above €600m since the start of 2023, only dipping towards €500m in the last month.

None of that oil has been heading for the US, but these sanctions will directly impact the ability of the Russian companies, and anyone doing business with them, to operate within America’s financial orbit.

According to the order from the US Office for Foreign Asset Control, the sanctions block all assets of the two companies, their subsidiaries and a number of named individuals, as well as preventing US citizens or financial institutions from doing business with them.

It also threatens foreign financial institutions that “facilitate transactions… involving Russia’s military-industrial base” with direct or secondary sanctions.

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
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Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters

In practice, the measures should prevent the two companies from accessing not just dollars, but trading markets, insurance and other services with any financial connection to the US.

Taken in harness with similar steps announced by the UK earlier this month, analysts believe they can have a genuinely chilling effect on the market for Russian oil and gas.

Russia’s customers for oil in China, India and Turkey will also be affected, with the largest companies, state-owned and private, expected to be unwilling to take the risk of engaging directly with sanctioned entities.

Indian companies are already reported to be “recalibrating” their imports following the announcement, which came just a week after Donald Trump announced an additional 25% import tariff on Indian goods as punishment for the country’s reliance on Russian oil.

Read more:
Russia has responded with bravado to US sanctions
Trump imposes sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil firms

That does not mean that Russian oil and gas exports will cease. There are other unsanctioned Russian energy companies that can still trade, and ever since the first barrel of oil was tapped, the industry has proved adept at evading sanctions intended to interrupt its flow from one country or another.

Any significant increase in the oil price beyond the 5% seen in the aftermath of the announcement could also put pressure on the White House, which is at least as sensitive to fuel prices at home as it is to foreign wars.

But analysts Kpler expect the sanctions to cause “an immediate, short-term hiatus in Russian crude exports, as it will take time for sellers to reorganise and rebuild their trading systems to circumvent restrictions and ease buyers’ concerns”.

And Russian gas will, for now, continue to flow into Europe, where distaste for Vladimir Putin‘s imperial ambitions has not killed the appetite for his fuel. While the EU has this week imposed sanctions on liquified natural gas (LNG), they will not be fully enforced until 2027.

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Dublin protests: Prams filled with fireworks as teens – and children as young as seven – clash with police

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Dublin protests: Prams filled with fireworks as teens - and children as young as seven - clash with police

At least 23 people have been arrested during a second night of violent disorder near an asylum hotel in Dublin.

Two police officers were taken to hospital with injuries sustained during clashes with protesters – including one who was struck on the head by a bottle.

A Sky News crew was caught in the confusion as police charged at crowds, who were throwing fireworks, stones and other debris.

Eyewitness: It got ugly – and fast

By Connor Gillies, news correspondent

The Telegram and WhatsApp group chats were alive with activity organising night two of unrest here on the edge of Dublin.

City chiefs halted trams and buses to this part of the Irish capital in a bid to reduce the number of mobs coming from other areas to fight police.

It got ugly, and fast.

I witnessed children as young as seven throwing bricks at riot officers, that were standing in rows 5ft deep.

Balaclava-clad thugs were spotted pulling and shaking bollards on the roadside in an effort to dislodge the tarmac to use as projectiles.

Pepper spray from fire extinguisher-size canisters pelted the eyes of those who dared to confront law enforcement.

Teenagers dragged a baby pram filled with fireworks lit their missiles as they chucked them at officers who were charging forward in a bid to get the hundreds of locals under control.

There is palpable, deep anger in this community after the alleged sexual assault of a 10-year-old girl near a large hotel housing asylum seekers.

The recent incident has fuelled a “get them out” pitchfork mentality that authorities, so far, appear to be struggling to get a grip of.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

It is the third night of demonstrations at the Citywest Hotel following an alleged sexual assault in the early hours of Monday morning.

A demonstration in the wake of the incident, which allegedly involved a 10-year-old girl, turned violent on Tuesday night. A police officer was injured and six arrests were made.

A 26-year-old man, who cannot be named due to rules that apply to all sexual assault cases in the Republic of Ireland, appeared in court on Tuesday charged over the alleged attack.

Gardai officers block protesters near the Citywest Hotel in Dublin.  Pic: PA
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Gardai officers block protesters near the Citywest Hotel in Dublin. Pic: PA

Police had earlier pledged a “robust response” if the violence continued.

Between 7pm and 8pm, hundreds of protesters faced off with around 40 uniformed officers.

The uniformed officers were replaced with the Public Order Unit, who were carrying plastic shields and additional body protection.

A police van was set on fire on Tuesday night.
Image:
A police van was set on fire on Tuesday night.

Protesters detained after stand-off

Hundreds of protesters had been facing off against the public order unit of the Irish police force along Citywest Drive.

While large parts of the crowd dispersed throughout the night, an additional public order unit was deployed to tackle those remaining at the protest shortly after 10pm.

A number of protesters have been detained after fireworks and rocks were thrown at police. Pic: PA
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A number of protesters have been detained after fireworks and rocks were thrown at police. Pic: PA

Several of those caught between the two units were tackled and detained as they tried to flee.

Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan said “many have been arrested” and “more will follow” – and went on to praise officers who had responded professionally to “thuggish violence” in the area.

Mr O’Callaghan vowed that those arrested would be “charged, named and dealt with relentlessly” by the criminal justice system.

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Donald Trump imposes sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies as frustration grows with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war

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Donald Trump imposes sanctions against Russia's two biggest oil companies as frustration grows with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war

Donald Trump has imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies – and spoke of his frustration with Vladimir Putin.

In a major policy shift, new restrictions have been unveiled against Rosneft and Lukoil – as well as dozens of subsidiaries – due to “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”.

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. We encourage our allies to join us in, and adhere to, these sanctions.”

The move marked a significant change for the Trump administration, which has veered between pressuring Moscow and taking a more conciliatory approach aimed at securing peace in Ukraine.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters
Image:
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters

Trump frustrated with Putin

The US president has resisted pressure to impose energy sanctions on Russia, hoping that Putin would agree to end the fighting. But with no end in sight, he said he felt it was time.

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Mr Trump explained he has a “very good relationship” with his Russian counterpart, but felt he had to cancel their planned meeting as “it didn’t feel right to me”.

In a sign of growing frustration, he told reporters: “It didn’t feel like we were going to get to the place we have to get. So I cancelled it. But we’ll do it in the future.

“I have good conversations. And then, they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere.”

He also hinted that the sanctions could be lifted if the Russian president was prepared to cooperate in peace talks.

“We hope that they [the sanctions] won’t be on for long,” he said in the Oval Office. “We hope that the war will be settled.”

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Putin-Trump talks: The view from Moscow

Trump wants Xi to help with Ukraine

Ahead of a meeting next week with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Mr Trump said he would like Beijing to help put pressure on Moscow to halt the fighting.

“I think he [Xi] can have a big influence on Putin. I think he can have a big influence … he’s a respected man. He’s a very strong leader of a very big country. And we will certainly be talking about Russia-Ukraine,” he said.

Xi and Putin have formed a strategic alliance between their countries.

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Why Tomahawks are off the table

Ukraine denied Tomahawk missiles

However, Mr Trump warned he is not prepared to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, which Kyiv has requested.

He explained it would take the Ukrainians up to a year to learn how to use the “highly complex” weapons.

“The only way a Tomahawk is going to be shot … is if we shot it. And we’re not going to do that.

“It takes a year of intense training to learn how to use it, and we know how to use it, and we’re not going to be teaching other people.”

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