Russia will not run out of weapons or troops for its war “any time soon” and Vladimir Putin thinks he can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table, a European spy agency has warned.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) – the Estonian equivalent of the UK’s MI6 – also said that a Russian victory in Ukraine would increase the probability of an armed conflict between Moscow and the NATO alliance. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
Kaupo Rosin, the agency’s new director general, said in a foreword to an annual report on international security published on Wednesday that the Russian president’s goal in Ukraine has not changed despite setbacks over the past 12 months, which thwarted his plan for a quick coup.
“For now, there is still enough fuel to keep the war machine going,” he wrote. “Russia will not run out of cannon fodder, Soviet-era armaments or propaganda-induced imperialism any time soon.”
There is a discrepancy between how different nations assess the level of Russian stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, with the quantity calculated as far higher if outdated Soviet-era munitions – that are far less safe – are included.
Yet, the reality on the ground in eastern Ukraine has seen little let-up in Russian bombardments against Ukrainian positions throughout the winter months.
The Estonian spy chief played down any suggestion of an imminent breakthrough by Russia after so far failing to conquer its neighbour and paying a heavy price.
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The United States has said that Russia has suffered some 188,000 casualties so far.
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3:51
Who is winning the war in Ukraine?
Putin ‘playing for time’
“A quality leap in Russia’s war-fighting capability is very unlikely,” Mr Rosin wrote, instead suggesting that whichever side can endure the longest will be key.
“Putin is playing for time, believing that Ukraine and the West will wear out before Russia. Putin thinks he can ‘bomb’ Ukraine to the negotiating table.”
Image: Members of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade prepare to fire a howitzer in the Donetsk region
The Estonian spy agency’s full report, entitled International Security and Estonia 2023, said that Moscow was ready to “continue raising the stakes” in Ukraine through further mobilisation of its population and more strikes against Ukrainian power infrastructure.
Mr Putin already ordered a partial mobilisation of more than 300,000 personnel last September. About half are thought to have been pushed quickly into the fight but the rest have been receiving training and are expected to form part of a new offensive by the spring, according to western officials.
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0:34
Ukraine’s military training ‘remarkable’
Putin believes Ukraine’s resilience and western support will break before Russia
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who is visiting the UK on Wednesday, said last week that the Russian escalation has already started in the east, where the level of attacks has been increasing.
“Russia believes that time is on its side in the war in Ukraine,” the Estonian report warned.
“In our assessment, Putin believes that Ukraine’s resilience and western support will break before Russia will. Still, in Putin’s opinion, Ukraine has not yet currently suffered enough to reach breaking point.”
Image: Ukraine’s 43rd Heavy Artillery Brigade fire a German howitzer near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
The spy agency said the challenge still posed by Russia underlined the need for western allies to continue their support to Ukraine – something that was not just in Ukraine’s interests but also in the interests of the wider western world.
“European security in the medium term directly depends on the Ukrainians’ will to determine their own future and western unity in supporting Ukraine with all necessary means,” the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service report said.
It added: “The probability of a military conflict between NATO and Russia would increase if Russia were to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine’s victory in the war against Russia would also improve regional security.”
Two people are dead and nearly 560 people were arrested after disorder broke out in France following Paris Saint-Germain’s victory in the Champions League final, the French interior ministry has said.
The ministry added 192 people were injured and there were 692 fires, including 264 involving vehicles.
A 17-year-old boy was stabbed to death in the city of Dax during a PSG street party after Saturday night’s final in Munich, the national police service said.
The second person killed was a man who was hit by a car while riding a scooter during PSG celebrations, the interior minister’s office said.
Paris police chief Laurent Nuñez has said the man was in his 20s and although the incident is still being investigated, it appears his death was linked to the disorder.
Meanwhile, French authorities have reported that a police officer is in a coma following the clashes.
Image: A burning bike on the Champs Elysees during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
The officer had been hit by a firecracker that emerged from a crowd of supporters in Coutances in the Manche department of northwestern France, according to reports in the country.
Initial investigations reportedly suggest the incident was accidental and the police officer was not deliberately targeted.
The perpetrator has not been identified.
Image: A man walks past teargas during incidents after the Champions League final soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan. Pic: AP
Image: A burning bike on the Champs Elysees during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
The interior ministry earlier said 22 security forces workers were injured during the chaos – including 18 who were injured in Paris, along with seven firefighters.
In a news conference today, Mr Nuñez said only nine of the force’s officers had been injured in the French capital.
He added that fireworks were directed at police and firefighters were attacked while responding to car fires.
There were 559 arrests across the country during the disorder, including 491 in Paris. Of those detained across the country, 320 were taken into police custody – with 254 in the French capital.
Mr Nuñez said although most people wanted to celebrate PSG’s win, some only wanted to get involved in fights with police.
He also said the force is only at “half-time” in its response because the PSG team will be celebrating their Champions League victory on the Champs Élysées later today.
Image: Police in Paris during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
Image: Police in Paris during the disorder. Pic: Reuters
Mr Nuñez said that the police presence and military presence in Paris will be increased on the ground for the parade.
It comes after flares and fireworks were set off in the French capital after PSG beat Inter Milan 5-0 in Munich – the biggest ever victory in a Champions League final.
Around 5,400 police were deployed across Parisafter the game, with officers using tear gas and pepper spray on the Champs Élysées.
Image: Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
At the top of the Champs Élysées, a water cannon was used to protect the Place de l’Etoile, near the landmark Arc de Triomphe.
Police said a large crowd not watching the match tried to push through a barrier to make contact with officers.
Some 131 arrests were made, including 30 who broke into a shoe shop on the Champs Élysées.
Police have said a total of four shops, including a car dealership and a barbers, were targeted during the disorder in Paris.
Two cars were set alight close to Parc des Princes, police said.
PSG forward Ousmane Dembélé appealed for calm in a post-match interview with Canal+, saying: “Let’s celebrate this but not tear everything up in Paris.”
Image: Pics: AP
After the final played at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, thousands of supporters also tried to rush the field.
Police lined up in front of the PSG end of the stadium at the final whistle, but struggled to contain the fans for several minutes when they came down from the stands following the trophy presentation.
Image: Pics: AP
Désiré Doué, the 19-year-old who scored two goals and assisted one in the final, said after the game: “I don’t have words. But what I can say is, ‘Thank you Paris,’ we did it.”
Despite being a supporter of PSG’s rivals Olympique de Marseille, French President Emmanuel Macron also said on social media: “A glorious day for PSG!
“Bravo, we are all proud. Paris, the capital of Europe this evening.”
Mr Macron’s office said the president would receive the players at the Elysee Palace on Sunday.
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At least 26 people have been killed near an aid distribution centre in the Rafah area of southern Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Palestinian health ministry.
Earlier, a nearby hospital run by the Red Cross reported that at least 21 people had been killed. The hospital, which has been receiving bodies and the wounded, also said another 175 people had been injured.
Witnesses said the deaths came after Israeli forces opened fire at a roundabout near the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation hub, a new aid organisation backed by Israel and the US.
However, Palestinian and Hamas-linked media have attributed the deaths it has reported on to an Israeli airstrike.
It is not yet clear if eyewitnesses and Hamas-affiliated media are giving different accounts of the same incident.
Sky News has contacted the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) for comment.
Witnesses tell of shooting
The area where the reported shooting took place is controlled by Israeli forces.
Ibrahim Abu Saoud, an eyewitness, said Israeli forces opened fire at people moving toward the aid distribution centre.
“There were many martyrs, including women,” the 40-year-old man said. “We were about 300 metres away from the military.”
Abu Saoud said he saw many people with gunshot wounds, including a young man who he said had died at the scene. “We weren’t able to help him,” he said.
Mohammed Abu Teaima, 33, said he saw Israeli forces open fire and kill his cousin and another woman as they were heading to the hub.
He said his cousin was shot in his chest and died at the scene. Many others were wounded, including his brother-in-law, he said.
“They opened heavy fire directly toward us,” he said as he was waiting outside the Red Cross field hospital for word on his wounded relative.
Image: Palestinians arrived to collect aid from a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation hub in Rafah last week. File pic: Reuters
Controversial new aid system
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) operates as part of a controversial aid system which Israel and the US says is aimed at preventing Hamas from siphoning off assistance.
Israel has not provided any evidence of systematic diversion, and the UN denies it has occurred.
The foundation’s distribution of aid has been marred by chaos, and multiple witnesses have said Israeli troops fired on crowds near the delivery sites.
UN agencies and major aid groups have refused to work with the new system, saying it violates humanitarian principles because it allows Israel to control who receives aid and forces people to relocate to distribution sites, risking yet more mass displacement in the territory.
Before Sunday, at least six people had been killed and more than 50 wounded, according to local health officials.
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0:53
From 31 May: Moment Israeli warplane strikes Gaza
GHF says aid distributed ‘without incident’
The foundation says the private security contractors guarding its sites did not fire on the crowds, while the Israeli military has acknowledged firing warning shots on previous occasions.
The foundation did not immediately respond to a request for comment following the hospital’s claims.
In an earlier statement, it said it distributed 16 truckloads of aid early on Sunday “without incident”. It dismissed what it referred to as “false reporting about deaths, mass injuries and chaos”.
Meanwhile, the UN’s aid system has struggled to bring in aid after Israel slightly eased its total blockade of the territory last month.
Those groups say Israeli restrictions, the breakdown of law and order, and widespread looting make it extremely difficult to deliver aid to Gaza’s roughly two million Palestinians.
Experts have warned that the Palestinian territory is at risk of famine if more aid is not brought in.
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3:29
From 29 May: Meet Gaza’s paramedics
The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting 251.
They are still holding 58 hostages, around a third of them believed to be alive, after most of the rest were released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Israel’s military campaign has killed more than 54,000 people, mostly women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not say how many of the dead were civilians or combatants.
The offensive has destroyed vast areas of the territory, displaced around 90% of Gaza’s population and left people almost completely reliant on international aid.