Games we can’t wait to see, bold predictions and early CFP picks for 2023
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ESPN staff
It’s never too early to start thinking about all the things we’re excited about for the 2023 college football season.
From the games we’ve already marked on our calendars to players and teams we expect to have breakout seasons, to early playoff picks, here’s everything we’re expecting in 2023.
The game to be most excited for in 2023
Alex Scarborough: Colorado at TCU on Sept. 2
All eyes were already going to be on TCU after its Cinderella run to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. But opening the 2023 season against Colorado and first-year coach Deion Sanders makes the game even more interesting. Not only do we get our first glimpse at Coach Prime in the Power 5, we get to see how the Horned Frogs will look without Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback Max Duggan and standout receiver Quentin Johnston.
Chris Low: Florida State vs. LSU on Sept. 3 (Orlando, Florida)
Get ready for some serious hype surrounding both Florida State and LSU heading into next season, and they open the season against each other in what should be a top-10 matchup on Sept. 3 in Orlando, a Sunday game that will get a ton of exposure. The Seminoles haven’t won an ACC championship since 2014, and this could be their best chance to end that drought, especially with quarterback Jordan Travis and defensive end Jared Verse, one of the country’s top pass-rushers, returning. LSU played in the SEC championship game in Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge. The Tigers return starting quarterback Jayden Daniels and a ton of young talent, including dynamic outside linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., and will be looking for even more in 2023. Florida State won 24-23 a year ago in an unreal finish when the Seminoles blocked an extra point. Let’s hope the encore is just as thrilling.
David M. Hale: Miami (Ohio) at Miami on Sept. 1
The great football minds will offer a laundry list of big-time matchups here, and for good reason. But what if instead, we look to the game with the most at stake: Miami vs. Miami. Oh, Week 1 has its share of marquee matchups, but none as significant as the one that will determine, once and for all, which Miami reigns supreme. And before you suggest that the Florida version of Miami wins in a runaway, recall that it was just last year that Middle Tennessee wiped the floor with the Canes on their home turf. Think Miami (Ohio) can’t do the same? And sure, this isn’t a traditional rivalry between neighboring schools, but consider that census data suggests upward of 70% of Florida’s population is just people who moved from Ohio to get away from the cold. And while there is no trophy handed to the winner, we think it’s only fair that the victor claims ultimate authority over the name “Miami,” forcing the loser to change its moniker so we no longer have to use parentheses to clarify which team we’re talking about. Just imagine the spectacle of The U announcing it would be formally rebranding as the University of Coral Gables, with Pitbull moving to Akron and Will Smith rereleasing a new version of “Welcome to Miami” in which he name drops Benjamin Harrison and Wally Szcerbiak. Good luck finding something to rhyme with Roethlisberger. In those terms, there’s no bigger game this season.
Tom VanHaaren: Ohio State @ Michigan on Nov. 25
It’s not until the end of the season, but the way the Michigan–Ohio State game has played out the past two years has brought the rivalry back into focus. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day received criticism for the two losses to Michigan the past two seasons, and there’s no doubt that will be their main focus in 2023. Day has said he might alter who calls offensive plays to give himself more opportunity to coach the entire team so that the team doesn’t suffer another season-ending loss. Michigan is returning running back Blake Corum and several big offensive pieces for 2023, which should put them in the conversation for one of the top teams coming into the season. The focus and emphasis put on that game, given the ramifications and the past results, are going to be at an all-time high that will make it must-watch game.
Blake Baumgartner: USC at Colorado on Sept. 30
A two-week stretch in September might show what Sanders is be capable of at Colorado. A week after going to Oregon for their first conference road game, the Buffaloes host Lincoln Riley and USC in Boulder on Sept. 30. Just as Riley transformed his team via the portal — with reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams headlining a group that includes wide receiver Dorian Singer (Arizona), running back MarShawn Lloyd (South Carolina) and linebacker Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State), among others — Sanders did so similarly by bringing his son Shedeur at quarterback and Travis Hunter at cornerback from Jackson State. As USC prepares to bid adieu to the Pac-12, it’ll have an opportunity to introduce Sanders to West Coast football.
Heather Dinich: Utah at USC on Oct. 21
Lincoln Riley would’ve had a playoff team in his first season as coach if the Trojans hadn’t gone 0-2 against Utah, so the Oct. 21 game between them is the one to watch. If USC can win at Notre Dame on Oct. 14, there’s a great chance the Trojans will be undefeated when Utah comes to L.A. This is USC’s final fall in the Pac-12. Can Riley leave a lasting impression in the league by boosting it into the CFP before bolting for the Big Ten? The home game against Utah will help answer that question.
Adam Rittenberg: Ohio State at Notre Dame on Sept. 23
There are some great selections here, and I always lean toward an early-season game for my selection. Ohio State and Notre Dame don’t open the season against each other again, but they meet Sept. 23 in South Bend for a matchup that has national implications on both sides. The Buckeyes should be 3-0, but get their first significant quarterback test in Sam Hartman, the Wake Forest transfer who holds the ACC career passing touchdowns record. Hartman and Notre Dame’s yet-to-be-named offensive coordinator create a sense of mystery and excitement around the Fighting Irish, who need a jolt in their passing game to take the next step. Notre Dame has a Week 2 road test at NC State but also should come in perfect. Marcus Freeman recorded a signature home win against Clemson last year. An upset of his alma mater would go a long way toward elevating expectations in Year 2, despite a tough overall schedule.
Bill Connelly: Michigan at Penn State on Nov. 11
I always enjoy a team’s first home game in a new (and more prestigious) conference, and we’ve got a few of those in the Big 12 — Houston hosting TCU in Week 3, Cincinnati hosting Oklahoma in Week 4, UCF hosting Baylor in Week 5 (BYU hosts Cincinnati in its first conference home game, which is lame). But honestly, my mind’s drifting to Happy Valley. Penn State could have a top-five caliber team in 2023, and while its trip to Ohio State in October might still be out of reach, a potentially loaded Michigan team has to visit State College on Nov. 11. Can PSU win and create a potential three-way race in the Big Ten East?
The breakout teams will be …
Scarborough: For a minute, it looked like Notre Dame was getting ready to fall off a cliff last season. First-year coach Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish couldn’t have looked any worse after a home loss to Marshall. And, yeah, the loss to Stanford a month later wasn’t great, either. But they steadied the ship and now I’m buying stock in Notre Dame next season. Hartman was a huge pickup from the portal and the top three tailbacks are all returning. Plus, the schedule is manageable with Navy and Tennessee State to start the season and Ohio State at home on Sept. 23.
Low: Mike Locksley enters his fifth season as Maryland‘s coach, and the Terrapins have gotten better, more talented and more competitive each year. They’re coming off back-to-back winning seasons after suffering through six straight losing seasons from 2015-20. In addition, Maryland has capped each of the past two seasons with bowl victories. The biggest offseason news for the Terps was record-setting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa announcing that he would return for the 2023 season. Two of Maryland’s five losses last season in the Big Ten were by a touchdown or less. With a quarterback the caliber of Tagovailoa returning and a defense that should be improved, the Terps will be better positioned to finish some of those close games and make a run at their first nine-win season or better in more than a decade.
VanHaaren: Florida State finished the season at 10-3, so I don’t know if the Seminoles really qualify here. But even with a 10-win season, it seems like FSU didn’t get a ton of national recognition. The three losses came in a row against Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson, as all were ranked teams. The Seminoles are getting defensive end Verse back in 2023, returning quarterback Travis and the staff has one of the better transfer classes this offseason. Mike Norvell brought in Virginia corner Fentrell Cypress II, Western Michigan defensive lineman Braden Fiske, Miami defensive lineman Darrell Jackson Jr., tight ends Jaheim Bell and Kyle Morlock, as well as a few really good offensive linemen. Those additions should help Florida State push for an even better season than 2022.
Dinich: Washington has already exceeded expectations under Kalen DeBoer, and the Huskies are poised to be even better this fall. They’ve got an exciting, explosive offense led by returning veteran quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and the defense — which returns its top pass-rushers — has already shown continuous improvement. This is a team that should contend for the Pac-12 title and has the capability to win it. The schedule, though, is daunting. Washington starts November with back-to-back games against USC and Utah — two top-25 teams it avoided last year. It has a nonconference road trip to Michigan State. It’s hard to qualify an 11-2 team as having a breakout season, but until the Huskies prove they can beat USC and Utah under DeBoer, there’s plenty of room to ascend.
Rittenberg: Florida State and Washington are good picks, even though both reached double-digit wins in 2022. I’d throw Penn State in the same category, as coach James Franklin might have his best team since the 2016 squad that won the Big Ten. The Lions return one of the nation’s best running back tandems in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who will work behind an offensive line anchored by tackle Olu Fashanu. Coordinator Manny Diaz’s defense brings back a talented core, including Abdul Carter, Curtis Jacobs, Chop Robinson and others. PSU must visit Ohio State but gets UMass and an open week before the big game. I also like what Jonathan Smith is building at Oregon State, which won 10 games last season despite the nation’s No. 105 passing offense. If Smith can get DJ Uiagalelei on track, the Beavers could contend in a loaded Pac-12.
Baumgartner: Iowa‘s offensive struggles over the past several years have been well documented, especially after last season’s 251.6 yards per game average — last in the Big Ten. But its defense continues to show out on a yearly basis as the Hawkeyes found a way to win eight games in 2022. It could use a little more help in a wide open Big Ten West, a year before USC and UCLA enter into an unknown conference structure. Quarterback Cade McNamara transferred in from Michigan, along with tight end Erick All, and they’ll be thrown right into the fire with a visit to Happy Valley against Penn State on Sept. 23 to begin conference play. The Hawkeyes’ schedule is without Michigan and Ohio State — more than manageable in the soon-to-be 16-team league — and the chance for the program to lay claim to a second Big Ten West title in three seasons is ripe.
Connelly: Oregon’s another team that might or might not count for breakout status (10-3 in 2022), but given that the Ducks have finished in the top 10 only once in the past eight years, I say they count! And with Bo Nix returning, another strong recruiting class arriving, only one unit facing a rebuild (an admittedly stout offensive line) and a schedule that requires USC to visit Eugene, the Ducks might need only to split tough road games at Washington and Utah to be in strong CFP shape in the home stretch. Another breakout candidate: whoever wins all their close games in the Big 12 this time! Two years ago it was Baylor and OSU, and last year it was TCU and Kansas State. It could be Oklahoma or Texas this time — they did go a combined 2-10 in one-score games last year, which probably won’t happen again. That would be pretty boring from a “breakout” perspective, but it could also be Texas Tech! Or UCF! Or Baylor again! The most unpredictable conference will inevitably have some more surprises for us.
Which team or player will have the best comeback?
Scarborough: LSU far surpassed expectations in Year 1 under Brian Kelly. And it did so without arguably its most talented player in defensive tackle Maason Smith, who suffered a season-ending injury during the first half of the season opener against Florida State. The 6-foot-5, 300-pound sophomore has the size, strength and quickness to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. I’m not saying he’s Jalen Carter. But look at Smith’s freshman highlights, including four sacks and five tackles for loss, and tell me he’s not at least similar to Carter. Paired with standout edge rusher Perkins, Smith could help the Tigers’ defense take a huge step forward this season.
Low: Two years ago, Spencer Sanders was one of college football’s most dynamic quarterbacks as he earned All-Big 12 honors, led the league in total offense (3,495 yards) and helped steer Oklahoma State to a 12-2 season, including 371 passing yards and 125 rushing yards in a 37-35 win over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. He will play his final season at Ole Miss after struggling through an injury-riddled season a year ago at Oklahoma State. A four-year starter, Sanders gives the Rebels an extremely deep quarterback room. One of the reasons he transferred to Ole Miss was Lane Kiffin’s offense. Sanders’ multipurpose skills at quarterback should provide an added dimension to an Ole Miss offense that was third nationally last season in rushing offense (256.4 yards per game).
Hale: There were myriad reasons for Oklahoma’s down 2022 campaign, but Brent Venables isn’t interested in excuses. His focus is entirely on improvement, and there’s reason to believe 2023 will offer quite a bit of it for the Sooners. The transfer portal gutted last year’s roster, but Oklahoma has added some solid players this season, including two potential star edge rushers in Rondell Bothroyd and Dasan McCullough. Add in a terrific recruiting class and the return of QB Dillon Gabriel, and Venables has much more to work with this time around. Those edge rushers are key. Venables loves to dictate the action at the line of scrimmage, something he did better than any coach in the country at Clemson. If Oklahoma’s pass rush takes a big leap and the Sooners get a little better turnover luck — they saw the 10th-biggest year-over-year decline in points off turnover margin in 2022 — they should again be contending for the Big 12 title and a possible playoff berth.
VanHaaren: Devin Leary played in just six games this past season for NC State, where he threw for 1,265 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. He suffered a season-ending injury against Florida State in 2022, and then transferred to Kentucky in the offseason. He’s joining a Wildcats team that just hired Liam Coen as the offensive coordinator, bringing him back to Kentucky after spending time with the Los Angeles Rams. Starting quarterback Will Levis is off to the NFL, which has set the stage for a healthy Leary to take over in 2023. Prior to his injury, Leary broke records for the Wolfpack, throwing for 3,433 yards, 35 touchdowns and five interceptions in 2021. He has an opportunity to put up big numbers at Kentucky if he can stay on the field and has a chance to be one of the better quarterbacks if he can recreate his 2021 season.
Rittenberg: A combination of injuries and the COVID-19 eligibility waiver will allow Tyler Shough to log three seasons at quarterback for two different teams — Oregon and Texas Tech. He’s returning for his third season with the Red Raiders after a strong finish to 2022. Texas Tech went 5-0 in games Shough started last season and has an 8-0 mark in games he both started and finished. Injuries have limited Shough in each of his two seasons in Lubbock, but he has a high ceiling in running coordinator Zach Kittley’s offense with so much experience under his belt. Texas Tech gets a lot of receivers involved, and Shough will have enough options in the pass game. He also gets a Week 2 showcase opportunity against Oregon, which he helped to a Pac-12 title and a Fiesta Bowl appearance during the 2020 season.
Baumgartner: A year removed from guiding Michigan State to an 11-win season and a win in the Peach Bowl, quarterback Payton Thorne has a chance for a little redemption — and he’ll have to do it without his childhood friend Jayden Reed, who’s off to the NFL. Back in 2018, Thorne took that challenge to heart during his senior year in high school and all he did was throw 40 touchdowns. Thorne established a single-season school record in East Lansing with 27 touchdowns in 2021 and he’ll need to be better with wide receivers Keon Coleman and Tre Mosley alongside him if Mel Tucker hopes to get his program back on sound footing. Home games against Washington, Michigan and Penn State will give Thorne high-profile opportunities to rewrite his legacy a bit.
What will the final year of the four-team playoff show us?
Low: Very simply, that the sport continues to be dominated by teams from the Deep South. Entering the 2023 season, 16 of the past 17 national championships have been won by a school from that footprint. Is there any reason to believe that anything will change before we go to a 12-team format?
Hale: The team that dominated the playoff era will be the same one that owns the final four-team playoff, too. Yes, Alabama had a down year by its lofty standards in 2022, but that was as much bad luck — last-second losses to Tennessee and LSU — as it was a real step backward in terms of talent. Indeed, Alabama’s 60-point decline in points off turnovers margin was the sixth worst in the country, a number determined far more by chance than it is skill. Yes, there were some clear weaknesses — at receiver, primarily — but Nick Saban has taken great pains to address the chief concerns. And if anyone thinks he hasn’t paid attention to the continual refrain that Georgia has surpassed the Tide as the nation’s premier program … well, you don’t know Saban.
Dinich: Conference championship games still matter. Last year, when Ohio State and TCU finished in the top four without winning their conferences, it was an anomaly. The final season of the four-team playoff will be a reminder of how important those games are to the current system, and a foreshadowing of how priceless they will be in the 12-team format. With no divisions in the ACC this fall, there could be a scenario where Florida State and Clemson are BOTH in the ACC championship game playing for a semifinal spot. The SEC and Big Ten champions are in, barring something bizarre. Unless it’s a circumstance like TCU faced last year, the conference championship games are also typically elimination games — just ask the Pac-12. There’s a reason the selection committee members watch the conference championship games in person. They are the final pieces to their puzzle. Next year, the six highest-ranked conference champions will lock up a spot, along with the next six highest-ranked teams. For now, they remain a critical tiebreaker.
Rittenberg: That conference depth really doesn’t matter. Although I’m projecting a Pac-12 team to the CFP, I can see scenarios where the league is once again left out because there are too many very good teams and not enough elite ones. The four-team playoff rewards leagues with one or two elite teams, not those with true depth and parity in their title races. The likely upshot of the expanded playoff — despite being a truly national postseason model, like every other major American sport — is that the deeper conferences, like the Pac-12 in 2022 and 2023, will be better represented.
Connelly: Yeah, what Adam said. A 12-team playoff will be all about conference depth, but the ACC has had far more CFP representation than the Pac-12 not because it’s a better or deeper conference (it’s not), but because it has had a standout program amid a sea of decent ones.
Wildest predictions
Scarborough: I don’t know if it’s a wild prediction, but I think the Pac-12 could be the most entertaining conference in college football next season. It’s not just USC or bust. Oregon, Washington and Utah are all serious contenders. And don’t forget about UCLA and Oregon State. Speaking of the Beavers, by adding Uiagalelei, they further bolstered the conference’s star power at quarterback with Heisman Trophy contenders in Williams, Penix and Nix.
Low: Duke wins at least nine games for the second year in a row, which hasn’t been done since David Cutcliffe led the Blue Devils to 10 wins in 2013 and nine wins in 2014. Not to put undue pressure on Mike Elko, but Duke returns the core of the team that won five of its last six games a year ago. Elko is the real deal, and he has quickly built a culture that’s reminiscent of the one Cutcliffe built when he had it going in Durham.
Hale: The last time the Pac-12 made the College Football Playoff, this year’s incoming freshman class was in sixth grade and the world was mourning the loss of beloved gorilla Harambe. In other words, it’s been a while since the league had something to be excited about. But 2023 will not only mark the end of the Pac-12’s playoff drought, but the West Coast will be the Best Coast for college football this season. USC, Oregon, Utah and Washington all return star QBs who can make a run at the Heisman. Oregon State is coming off a 10-win season. Arizona was already arguably the country’s most fun team to watch, and in 2023, the Wildcats might actually be good, too. Arizona State is starting fresh with QB guru Kenny Dillingham, Cam Ward figures to take a big step forward in his second year at Washington State, UCLA is coming off its best season in nearly a decade and, oh yeah, a guy by the name of Coach Prime begins his tenure at Colorado. Better stock up on coffee and Red Bull. Pac-12 after dark is going to be required viewing.
Dinich: Texas wins the Big 12. When the Longhorns go 13-12 in the past two seasons and haven’t won a conference title since 2009, you better believe this is a “wild prediction.” With a new-look Big 12 that now includes Houston, UCF, BYU and Cincinnati, though, it’s going to be one of the most interesting conference races this fall. Texas lost five games last year by seven points or less. Four starting offensive linemen return, along with the top three receivers and starting quarterback Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns have a golden opportunity to impress the selection committee on Sept. 9 at Alabama. Otherwise, this is a winnable schedule — if, of course, Texas is ready to take the next step under Steve Sarkisian.
Connelly: Louisville wins the ACC! OK, it’ll probably be FSU or Clemson (and “FSU lives up to increasingly lofty hype” is another prediction that I seriously considered), but you asked for a WILD prediction! In their first division-free ACC schedule, the Cardinals avoided both Florida State and Clemson, and their toughest conference road game is probably either NC State or Miami. If Jeff Brohm enjoys any of the first-year effects that he saw at Purdue, when he immediately bumped the Boilermakers from 3-9 to 7-6, he could have a surprisingly awesome first season.
Early playoff picks
Baumgartner: Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, USC
Scarborough: Georgia, Ohio State, USC, Alabama
Hale: Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Oregon
Low: Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, USC
VanHaaren: Georgia, USC, Alabama, Michigan
Dinich: Georgia, Alabama, USC, Michigan
Rittenberg: Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, Washington
Connelly: Georgia, Michigan, Oregon, Ohio State
The 2025 season is on the way and several budding players on our Way-Too-Early Top 25 teams are primed for breakout campaigns.
Tony Rojas should add to Penn State’s proud Linebacker U tradition. After a banner freshman season, safety KJ Bolden is on his way to becoming Georgia’s next defensive star. And incoming freshman running back Gideon Davidson could give Clemson’s offense an immediate jolt.
Who else could break out in 2025? Our college football experts break it down:
Breakout player: Eddrick Houston, DE
With all four starting defensive linemen (Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, Ty Hamilton) from the national title team moving on to the NFL, the Buckeyes have a major void to fill up front. But Houston, the No. 35 overall recruit last year, seems primed to step into a lynchpin role along the defensive line. Houston (6-foot-3, 270 pounds) was recruited as a defensive end but played inside last season. Wherever he ends up in 2025, he figures to be an impact player for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Breakout player: Arch Manning, QB
It’s kind of hard to break out when your name is Arch Manning — even if he’s a first-year starter — so we’ll go with the man who could be Manning’s security blanket in coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense: Spencer Shannon. Two years ago, Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders caught 45 passes for 682 yards. Last season, TE Gunnar Helm caught 60 passes for 786 yards and seven TDs. As a redshirt freshman, he appeared in four games last season, but Sarkisian has touted him as their best in-line blocker and someone who has vastly improved his ball skills. At 6-7 and 255 pounds, he’s a mismatch for linebackers and Sarkisian noted he has spent two seasons practicing with Manning already, so they have a rapport. — Dave Wilson
Breakout player: Tony Rojas, LB
After earning honorable-mention All-Big Ten honors as a sophomore, Rojas, a rising standout linebacker, seems primed for a big 2025 season. Rojas surged in the College Football Playoff, highlighted by his pick-six in Penn State’s opening-round victory over SMU. With Abdul Carter on his way to the NFL and All-Big Ten linebacker Kobe King gone as well, Rojas should take on a more central role under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. — Trotter
Breakout player: Jaden Greathouse, WR
Until the CFP semifinal and national championship game, Greathouse had only 359 yards receiving. But in those final two games against Penn State and Ohio State, Greathouse stepped up for 13 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. In the second half against the Buckeyes, Greathouse spearheaded a furious Notre Dame comeback that came up just short. That spectacular ending could prove to be a springboard for Greathouse to be even greater in 2025. — Trotter
Breakout player: KJ Bolden, DB
One of the best young defenders in the SEC last season, Bolden made his presence felt on the back end of that Georgia defense. As a true freshman, Bolden was overshadowed by All-American safety Malaki Starks but rose up and played some of his best football in the postseason. He’ll only get better in 2025 and will be one of the anchors in a Georgia secondary that is also returning some talented young cornerbacks. Bolden is an excellent open-field tackler and, according to Pro Football Focus, gave up only eight yards in 134 coverage snaps last season. — Chris Low
Breakout player: Makhi Hughes, RB
Running back Jordan James was an underrated part of the Oregon offense last season and, with him leaving for the NFL, the Ducks were quick to add Hughes from the transfer portal to try to fill the void. Hughes spent his past two seasons at Tulane averaging over 5 yards per carry each of those two seasons and totaling 22 touchdowns (15 last season). Without Dillon Gabriel under center and with a younger quarterback in Dante Moore taking over, it wouldn’t be surprising if offensive coordinator Will Stein relies on Hughes (as well as the rest of the Ducks’ running back room) to be the fulcrum of their offense this coming season. — Paolo Uggetti
Breakout player: Gideon Davidson, RB
Unlike last season, when Clemson was all-too tethered to Phil Mafah, it’s a crowded backfield for the Tigers in 2025. Still, that doesn’t mean a lead back won’t emerge from a group that includes last year’s second-leading rusher Jay Haynes, David Eziomume, Keith Adams Jr. and converted receiver Adam Randall. But if there’s a true superstar to emerge, set those sights Davidson, a true freshman described by coach Dabo Swinney as “the best freshman back in the country.” Davidson was ranked as a top-100 prospect across the board, and he averaged better than 9 yards per carry in high school. He’s explosive and powerful, and if he hits the ground running at Clemson, he could carve out a sizable role on an offense poised to be among the most talented in the country. — David Hale
Breakout player: Nic Anderson, WR
Even though he’s new to the LSU roster after transferring from Oklahoma, Anderson has all the tools to be one of the most dynamic playmakers in 2025, especially with Garrett Nussmeier throwing to him. The 6-4, 220-pound Anderson sat out all but one game last season after tearing his quadriceps. But as a redshirt freshman in 2023, he set an Oklahoma freshman record with 10 touchdown catches and averaged 21 yards per catch. Anderson is back to full strength, and with Kyren Lacy headed to NFL, Anderson should emerge as the go-to receiver in LSU’s offense. — Low
Breakout player: Keelan Marion, WR
The Cougars return their top two pass catchers from last season between Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter. But if a BYU offense that finished 11th in passing yards per game among Big 12 programs last season is going to take a leap with second-year starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff, it might require Marion to carve out a larger role. An All-American kick returner who caught 24 passes in 2024, Marion has yet to fully unleash the downfield potential he flashed when he hauled in 28 passes for 474 yards and 5 touchdowns as a freshman at UConn in 2021. Year 3 with the Cougars could be the platform for Marion and his elite speed to become another important weapon for a BYU offense shouldering the weight of Big 12 title and legitimate playoff aspirations in 2025. — Eli Lederman
Breakout player: Nyck Harbor, WR
There might not be a receiver in the country more physically intimidating than Nyck Harbor, who checks in at 6-5, 235 pounds. That’s made him an object of curiosity on South Carolina’s offense for the past two years, despite only small steps forward in his development. But as LaNorris Sellers blossomed down the stretch last season, Harbor, too, seemed to find something extra, finishing with 15 catches, 272 yards and two scores in his final five games of the 2024 season. The Gamecocks wide receivers room was less than dynamic as a whole last year, but Harbor represents real promise — and after two years of incremental improvement, he looks poised to truly deliver on that promise in 2025. — Hale
Breakout player: Cannon Butler, DL
A central focus of the Cyclones’ offseason has been the challenge of replacing 1,110-yard receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, and Iowa State added a pair of new options for quarterback Rocco Becht in transfer pass catchers Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF). But the Cyclones also have production to fill in on the defensive line after the departures of defensive end Joey Petersen (team-high 8.0 TFL last fall) and 2024 sack leader J.R. Singleton. Enter Butler, an athletic defensive lineman and Northern Iowa transfer who totaled 59 tackles and 1.5 sacks in an impressive junior season last fall. At 6-6, 241 pounds, Cannon carries positional flexibility to play on the edge or inside and has tools to establish himself as a valuable component in an otherwise inexperienced Cyclones defensive end unit this fall. — Lederman
Breakout player: Ty Simpson, QB
There will be some intrigue this spring surrounding the quarterback battle at Alabama, especially with Ryan Grubb coming in as offensive coordinator. The Crimson Tide brought in five-star freshman Keelon Russell, and talented Austin Mack followed Kalen DeBoer to Alabama from Washington last year. But it’s Simpson’s time now after backing up Jalen Milroe the past two seasons. The Alabama staff really liked the way Simpson competed last preseason and last spring, and he wasn’t too far behind Milroe. While not as dynamic an athlete as Milroe, Simpson is still plenty athletic and more consistent throwing the ball. This is Simpson’s fourth year on campus, and though he hasn’t played much, he’s a good fit for what Grubb and DeBoer want to do on offense. — Low
Breakout player: Cole Rusk, TE
The Illini had big hopes last season for Rusk, who transferred in after earning FCS All-American honors at Murray State. But Rusk sustained a season-ending knee injury during fall camp. Rusk will now have an opportunity to give quarterback Luke Altmyer a reliable pass-catching option after Illinois’ tight ends combined to generate only 20 receptions last season. — Trotter
Breakout player: Kyson Brown, RB
Replacing the 1,711 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns All-American running back Cam Skattebo produced last fall won’t be easy. The portal addition of Army transfer Kanye Udoh (1,117 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024) is promising for the Sun Devils’ 2025 backfield, but the 293 carries Skattebo logged last season are more than Udoh had in two years at Army (278), meaning Arizona State probably will have to spread its backfield snaps a bit more in 2025. If that’s the case, third-year rusher Brown could be in line for a bigger role this fall after recording 351 yards and a pair of scores, averaging 4.81 yards per attempt as a sophomore. Brown’s ability in the passing game also distinguishes him alongside Udoh, who brings a grand total of two career receptions in 23 career games operating in Army’s run-heavy offense. — Lederman
Breakout player: LJ Johnson Jr., RB
Miami transfer Brashard Smith was a surprise star for the Mustangs last season, rushing for 1,332 yards and 14 TDs. With Smith departing for the NFL, Johnson, who rushed for 879 yards over the past two seasons, returns to give the Mustangs a powerful runner, but SMU spreads the field and will need someone to help fill Smith’s shoes. Rhett Lashlee highlighted freshman Dramekco Green Jr., who averaged 9.2 yards per carry and rushed for more than 1,500 yards as a high school senior, as someone who could get early playing time. — Wilson
Breakout player: Jerand Bradley, WR
The stakes are heightened for second-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson in 2025, and Kansas State reinforced at wide receiver to help him this offseason, adding transfer pass catchers Bradley (Boston College), Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Jaron Tibbs (Purdue). Among that trio, Bradley stands out as the most intriguing. The 6-5 receiver, who began his career at Texas Tech, never fully settled in during his lone season at Boston College in 2024. But Bradley been as an productive downfield target in the Big 12 before, hauling in 87 passes for 1,175 yards and 10 touchdowns across the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Red Raiders, and he’ll have an opportunity to assert himself in the Wildcats’ passing attack alongside top returner Jayce Brown, who logged 47 receptions for 832 yards and 5 touchdown in 2024. — Lederman
Breakout player: Zen Michalski, OL
The Hoosiers picked up a key transfer from down the road in former Notre Dame center Pat Coogan, who started 26 games for the Fighting Irish. But another transfer could also play a big role up front as Indiana revamps its offensive line after last year’s playoff run. Michalski stepped in after left tackle Josh Simmons sustained a season-ending knee injury, then started the next game against Nebraska before sustaining his own injury. Michalski could slide in at right tackle in his first season as a full-time starter and solidify an Indiana offense that holds promise behind transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza. — Trotter
Breakout player: Caleb Banks, DT
The Gators got a huge win when defensive tackle Banks decided to return to school for one more season to anchor a front that improved dramatically as 2024 progressed. Banks had an impressive final month. In the final three games, the 6-6, 325-pound Banks had seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. In all, he had 21 tackles (10 solo) and will now be relied on to help set the tone up front for a team with growing expectations. As much excitement as there is surrounding DJ Lagway, there is also tremendous upside for the Florida defense heading into 2025. — Andrea Adelson
Breakout player: Mike Matthews, WR
Matthews came in as a five-star receiver last season as a freshman but didn’t provide much production for a Tennessee offense that was lacking in explosive plays. He briefly flirted with transferring after the season but decided to return and is somebody the Vols desperately need to blossom and give them some firepower in the passing game. Matthews caught seven passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns last season. He has big-play ability written all over him, and with Tennessee losing seven receivers from last season’s team, there’s a chance for Matthews to live up to his billing. — Low
Breakout player: Jordan Guerad, DL
After battling an early season injury, Guerad had a strong finish to his season, culminating with six tackles (two for a loss) and a sack in the bowl game against Washington. The interior of the D-line looks like a point of need for the Cardinals after the departures of Thor Griffin, Dezmond Tell and Notre Dame transfer Jared Dawson, but a healthy Guerad will get ample opportunity to continue his development and prove he’s the answer to Louisville’s biggest defensive need. — Hale
Breakout player: Jordan Marshall, RB
The Wolverines featured a strong running back duo last season in Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, who combined for 1,537 yards. But with both runners sitting out the ReliaQuest Bowl to prepare for the draft, the Wolverines might have uncovered their back of the future in Marshall. A blue-chip freshman out of Ohio, Marshall rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries in the first meaningful action of his career, earning bowl game MVP honors in Michigan’s 19-13 victory over Alabama. With Marshall and Alabama transfer Justice Haynes, running back seems primed to remain a strength for the Wolverines. — Trotter
Breakout player: Terry Bussey, WR
The Aggies landed the dynamic Bussey, the No. 1 athlete and No. 18 overall prospect in the 2024 ESPN 300, with an eye on him playing cornerback. But with a more urgent need for playmakers on offense, he switched to wide receiver late in the summer. His best game came against Missouri, when he caught three passes for 76 yards. On the season, he caught only 17 passes, but 11 came in the last four games. With a year under his belt on offense full time, the Aggies are hoping to find more creative ways to utilize his 4.4 speed. — Wilson
Breakout player: Elija Lofton, TE
Lofton drew raves last season as a freshman for his versatility and playmaking ability. Though he played in every game, Miami had three more experienced tight ends on the roster so his snaps were limited. That will no longer be the case heading into the 2025 season. With Elijah Arroyo, Cam McCormick and Riley Williams all gone, Lofton will take over as the top tight end. Though it might appear that the group depth will take a hit, the coaching staff feels great about the position because of what Lofton is poised to become as he reaches his full potential. At 6-3, 230 pounds, he has the athleticism to play both tight end and running back, but also the size and strength to block the way Miami expects from its tight ends. — Adelson
Breakout players: Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines, RBs
There is no more Ashton Jeanty in the backfield for Boise State, but the majority of the offense built to support a strong running attack remains. It’s why Dubar and Gaines could be in line for breakout seasons. In two seasons, Dubar has had limited action (87 carries, 434 yards and 4 touchdowns) and Gaines’ freshman season in 2024 featured 20 carries for 156 yards and 1 touchdown. With quarterback Maddux Madsen returning, and an internal hire as the new offensive coordinator in Matt Miller, the system that can fuel another explosive rusher is not so different in 2025. Come the fall, Madsen probably will be asked to do a lot more, but so will Dubar and Gaines. — Uggetti
Breakout player: Zxavian Harris, DT
Ole Miss had one of the most dominant defensive lines in the country last season, and the Rebels’ numbers bear that out. They were second nationally in scoring defense and rushing defense and set a school record with 53 sacks. Most of the key players from that unit are gone, but Harris, a 6-7, 320-pound tackle, returns in the middle of that Ole Miss defensive line and will be force in 2025. He has played in 37 games over the past three seasons and shown flashes of dominance. His senior season will be his best yet, and Ole Miss will need that from him. — Low
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Jorge Castillo
SARASOTA, Fla. — The state of the 2025 Baltimore Orioles, one of enviable surplus in position-player talent and a potential deficit in the pitching department, was on display in their clubhouse Tuesday afternoon.
First, 41-year-old Charlie Morton, the second-oldest player in the majors, was scratched from his Grapefruit League start against the Toronto Blue Jays that evening without an immediate reason, briefly raising concerns that the Orioles’ rotation had experienced another setback. Within minutes, corner infielder Coby Mayo, one of the top prospects in baseball, openly expressed his displeasure to reporters about Baltimore’s decision to option him to minor league camp.
But Morton was not injured — the Orioles just chose to have him pitch in a simulated setting on a back field instead of facing a division rival. And the Orioles are not down on Mayo, who has clubbed 34 home runs with a .919 OPS in Triple-A over the past two seasons — they simply decided they did not have room for him on the big league roster.
“That’s what happens when you have good teams,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said.
The Orioles expect to be good for a reason. The question is, how good?
This year’s club features a lineup, fueled by a ballyhooed young core, that should mash even after Anthony Santander and his 44 home runs left to join the Blue Jays during the offseason. The starting rotation, however, projects as the worst in a loaded American League East — the only division in baseball that PECOTA projects will have all five teams win at least 80 games.
“The other four teams are really, really good teams,” Hyde said. “It’s going to be a dogfight every night. You’re going to be facing somebody that’s really good on a nightly basis in the division.”
The Orioles have been good enough to navigate the treacherous AL East and reach the postseason in each of the past two years. Whether they can make another playoff appearance — and finally win a game in October — will come down to their pitching, particularly the starting rotation.
The Orioles do not have a proven ace. They had one last season in Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young Award winner whom they acquired entering his final season before free agency. Burnes had an All-Star season in Baltimore, posting a 2.92 ERA across 32 starts. Then he left. Seeking a home out West, the right-hander signed a six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks at the end of December.
The Orioles have replaced him with two veteran free agents on the wrong side of the aging curve — Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano — on one-year deals for a combined $28 million. To fill the hole left by Santander in the outfield, they signed veteran Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal. In the process, Baltimore, in David Rubenstein’s first offseason as principal owner, raised its luxury tax payroll from $89.4 million last season to $126.8 million, which ranks 24th in baseball, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
“I think it’s a tough thing in sports, particularly for baseball, particularly for teams that aren’t the handful of larger market teams that can run the $300 million payrolls, that you’re going to have athletes leave,” Orioles general manager Mike Elias said. “Nobody wants it any time, but a big part of our profession is scripting out what’s the healthiest way to run the organization long term and from top to bottom and sometimes that involves not being the winner on a free agent.”
The rotation took another step back earlier this month when Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles’ projected No. 1 starter, was shut down with elbow inflammation. He started throwing again Tuesday, but will begin the season on the injured list, leaving Zach Eflin to start on Opening Day in Toronto. Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Albert Suárez complete Baltimore’s list of options for the rotation.
Internal reinforcements could eventually bolster the group. Right-hander Kyle Bradish, who finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2023, is on track to join the rotation in the second half of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. Left-hander Trevor Rogers, an All-Star in 2021 who struggled mightily upon being traded to Baltimore last summer, could be available early in the season after dislocating his right kneecap in January.
The final spot in the rotation is a competition between Povich, a 24-year-old left-hander who recorded a 5.54 ERA in 16 starts last season, and Suárez, a 35-year-old journeyman who emerged last season to post a 3.70 ERA across 133⅔ innings. Povich was given Morton’s start Tuesday and tossed five hitless innings, better positioning himself for the job. Morton, meanwhile, threw to Orioles hitters on a back field as he prepares for his 17th season.
The right-hander launched his career as a mediocre young pitcher, became a first-time All-Star at 34 years old and is now an age-defying wonder who has outlasted most of his peers. Along the way, he’s been around successful young rosters. He was on the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ last playoff teams in the mid-2010s. He won a World Series with the Houston Astros in 2017, advanced to another one with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 and won his second title with the Atlanta Braves in 2021.
He said these Orioles, a few of whom are nearly half his age, remind him of the Astros teams he played on.
“I think certainly you want to prove yourself on an individual level to other people, to yourself,” Morton said. “But once you start to taste winning and once you start to kind of see that you can be, as a group, better than you, then you kind of build a momentum. And that momentum becomes something that really shapes your identity. And then you start to, as a group, believe in being able to do things that are greater than what you thought you could do maybe at the beginning. I think in Houston we had that.”
The Orioles’ position-player group, while bursting with talent, is not foolproof. Superstar shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who finished fourth in AL MVP voting in his age-23 season in 2024, could miss the start of the season with an intercostal injury. Two-time All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman, the organization’s other cornerstone, is seeking to rebound from a second-half collapse in production. Second baseman Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in baseball a year ago, will look to establish himself after slashing .189/.255/.311 in 60 games as a 20-year-old rookie.
“We have guys that still haven’t reached their upside for me,” Hyde said.
If that happens — if Henderson somehow takes another step, if Rutschman rediscovers his form, if Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, all 26 and under, play to their potential — then the Orioles will be very good. To be great, they’ll need their rotation to exceed expectations.
“We made the playoffs,” first baseman Ryan Mountcastle said of last year’s club, which was swept in the wild-card round by the Kansas City Royals. “That’s always huge. You just got to get there first. It wasn’t the end result we wanted, but I think we’ve learned from it, we’ve grown from it. Hopefully we bring it into this coming year, hopefully make the playoffs again and make a better run.”
The race for the Western Conference’s second wild-card spot is by no means a two-team showdown — but the two teams tied in standings points for that position are squaring off on Thursday.
The Vancouver Canucks — who currently hold the coveted playoff spot, with 75 points and 25 regulation wins in 68 games — will be visiting the St. Louis Blues (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+), who also have 75 points and 25 regulation wins but in 69 games.
So, with apologies to the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club, Thursday night’s clash has become extra pivotal, after the clubs split the first two games of the season series and will not play again.
Looking beyond this game, the Blues play five of their remaining 12 games against current playoff teams; the Canucks have an extra game down the stretch, but they play seven of their final 13 against playoff teams, including five of their final six.
Stathletes likes the Blues’ postseason future a bit more, putting their playoff chances at 56.8%, with the Canucks at 26.3%.
There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Thursday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks, 8:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers, 9 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at Utah Hockey Club, 9 p.m.
Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.
Wednesday’s scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Minnesota Wild 4, Seattle Kraken 0
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 101.6
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 94.2
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 36.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: @ VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 5.1%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 74.6
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 20
Metro Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 118.2
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 25.5%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 23.8%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 12.4%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 77.3
Next game: vs. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18
Central Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 116.5
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 108.9
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 101.0
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 98.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 92.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 89.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 56.8%
Tragic number: 27
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 8.6%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 71.0
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 59.1
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 3
Pacific Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 101.3
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90.4
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 26.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 16.5%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 79.6
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
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