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The governor of the Bank of England has told MPs that its forecasts for inflation to more than halve this year are at risk from price and wage-setting as unions continue to demand large public sector settlements.

Andrew Bailey was speaking after the Bank raised its base level of interest rates to 4% from 3.5% last week as it judged that while inflationary pressures were generally easing, there were stubborn elements still unclear and at play.

At that time, the monetary policy committee was split on whether to raise rates at all but the voting opted for the 0.5 percentage point hike given that the main measure of inflation remained in double digits at 40-year highs.

“We are concerned about persistence [of inflation] and that’s why, frankly, we raised interest rates this time,” he told the Treasury select committee.

“I am very uncertain, particularly about price-setting and wage-setting in this country. We have got the largest upside skew in our forecasts that we have ever had on inflation.”

The Bank is forecasting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will fall to around 4% by the end of the year – from its current level of 10.5% – but that is based on a lack of additional shocks for the UK and wider global economy.

The index tracks inflation by monitoring the price of an average basket of consumer goods.

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Last week: BoE governor explains interest rate rise

The war in Ukraine exacerbated rising costs witnessed since the end of the pandemic – with energy prices hitting record levels and being passed on down supply chains, through to consumers and businesses.

As wholesale energy and commodity costs ease, the Bank sees hope that the hit to the economy will ease too.

Its 10 consecutive rises in its base level of interest rates have been aimed at deterring, what it calls, secondary inflation.

The theory goes that if you make borrowing costs more expensive, activity in the economy is dented and things like wage rises are depressed to stop pressure on inflation being intensified by high spending.

Private sector wage growth has exceeded that of the public sector substantially since the COVID crisis struck and many unions are seeking inflation-busting pay rises to make up for lost increases and help their members navigate the squeeze on their budgets.

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Strikes have hit the likes of the NHS and railways amid a failure to bridge the gulf between the demands of the unions and what ministers argue is affordable.

Mr Bailey said that the Bank’s forecasts for inflation could be placed at risk if, on paper, the government was to fund any large pay rises through public borrowing rather than tax increases.

“What I would urge is that – particularly going forwards because we think inflation is going to fall very rapidly – that
is taken into account,” he said, explaining that he was speaking in economic and not political terms.

“We’ve seen pay settlements, in particular in the private sector, are higher than consistent with the target, but not at
the level of inflation.”

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Hobbycraft to axe stores and jobs in radical restructuring

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Hobbycraft to axe stores and jobs in radical restructuring

The new owner of WH Smith’s high street arm is drawing up plans which could result in the closure of nearly a quarter of the stores operated by Hobbycraft, the arts and crafts chain.

Sky News has learnt that Modella Capital, a private investment firm which specialises in taking over troubled retailers, is preparing to launch a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) at Hobbycraft as soon as Wednesday.

People close to the proposals said that nine of its shops would be closed, with the loss of roughly 100 jobs, and that 18 more would remain open only if negotiations with landlords over rent cuts concluded successfully.

A further 97 stores will remain unaffected by the CVA, the people added, protecting 1,800 jobs.

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If the talks with landlords do not progress as envisaged and the 18 affected stores are also earmarked for closure, at least 150 more redundancies could be triggered based on Hobbycraft’s average number of employees per store.

Some job losses are also expected at the company’s head office and distribution operations, according to insiders.

The Hobbycraft CVA is expected to be launched shortly before Modella also pursues a restructuring at The Original Factory Shop (TOFS), the discount chain it acquired just two months ago.

An HMRC investigation into minimum wage breaches found WHSmith was the worst offender
Image:
Modella owns WH Smith. File pic: NetStorage

One industry source speculated that as many as between 30 and 40 TOFS outlets could close, resulting in hundreds more layoffs.

The dual restructuring processes will raise questions about whether Modella plans a similar cull of shops and workers at WH Smith, which it has said will be renamed TG Jones following the takeover.

In a statement, a Modella spokesman said: “Modella Capital is absolutely committed to bricks and mortar retail, at a time when the sector is coming under increasing pressure.

“[Modella] understands that high streets provide a vital service to consumers, are an essential source of employment and are key to the future success of local economies.

“Modella Capital believes that many retailers can thrive on the high street; particularly those with a distinctive offer and a loyal customer base.

“Where necessary, Modella Capital has the skills and experience to restructure retailers that require it, in order to ensure they create profitable, ongoing businesses that will continue to serve communities and employ thousands of people across the UK.”

FRP, the professional services firm, is overseeing the Hobbycraft CVA, while Interpath Advisory is working on the equivalent process at TOFS.

CVAs – a widely used tool in the retail and hospitality sectors in recent years – are frequently utilised to facilitate store closures and rent cuts from landlords.

Modella bought Hobbycraft, which was founded in 1995, from the private equity firm Bridgepoint last summer.

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Rachel Reeves to head to Washington amid hopes of US trade deal

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Rachel Reeves to head to Washington amid hopes of US trade deal

Rachel Reeves will pledge to “stand up for Britain’s national interest” as she heads to Washington DC amid hopes of a UK/US trade deal.

The chancellor will fly to the US capital for her spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the first of which began on Sunday.

During her three-day visit, Ms Reeves is set to hold meetings with G7, G20 and IMF counterparts about the changing global economy and is expected to make the case for open trade.

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Her visit comes after Donald Trump imposed blanket 10% tariffs on all imports into the US, including from the UK, and as talks about reaching a trade deal intensified.

The chancellor will also hold her first in-person meeting with her US counterpart, treasury secretary Scott Bessent, about striking a new trade agreement, which the UK hopes will take the sting out of Mr Trump’s tariffs.

In addition to the 10% levy on all goods imported to America from the UK, Mr Trump enacted a 25% levy on car imports.

Ms Reeves will also be hoping to encourage fellow European finance ministers to increase their defence spending and discuss the best ways to support Ukraine in its war against Russia.

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Speaking ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “The world has changed, and we are in a new era of global trade. I am in no doubt that the imposition of tariffs will have a profound impact on the global economy and the economy at home.

“This changing world is unsettling for families who are worried about the cost of living and businesses concerned about what tariffs will mean for them. But our task as a government is not to be knocked off course or to take rash action which risks undermining people’s security.

“Instead, we must rise to meet the moment and I will always act to defend British interests as part of our plan for change.

“We need a world economy that provides stability and fairness for businesses wanting to invest and trade, more trade and global partnerships between nations with shared interests, and security for working people who want to get on with their lives.”

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge – and she’s not alone

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge - and she's not alone

There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

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Could Trump make a deal with UK?

Are we heading for a recession?

The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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