UK weather: Sudden stratospheric warming event ‘now likely’ – what is it and what does it mean?
This winter parts of the UK have already been hit by freezing temperatures and heavy snow – but a weather event expected to take place in the coming days has sparked fears the country could soon face an icy blast.
A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is “now likely”, according to forecasters – and could bring the return of bitterly cold conditions before spring.
Sky News weather producer Chris England says “sudden stratospheric warmings can lead to colder conditions over parts of the Northern Hemisphere through their interaction with the jet stream”.
But he warned these high pressure systems which are formed feeding cold air down from the north and east are not guaranteed.
What is a sudden stratospheric warming event?
SSW describes an event when “rapid warming occurs high up in the stratosphere”, according to the Met Office, but it can have consequences in our weather down on the surface in the weeks that follow.
This rapid warming in the stratosphere – between around 10km and 50km above the earth’s surface – is so high we don’t feel it on the ground.
The event follows a weakening of winds in what’s called the stratospheric polar vortex, high over the Arctic.
“The cold air then descends very rapidly in the polar vortex and this causes the temperature in the stratosphere to rise very rapidly, as much as 50C over only a few days; hence the term sudden stratospheric warming,” the Met Office says.
This event can impact the shape of the jet stream as the cold air sinks – sometimes leading to a long spell of dry, cold weather across the UK and northern Europe.
Get the latest 5-day weather forecast where you are
Does it happen every year and will it happen this year?
SSW doesn’t happen every year, and when it does, it doesn’t always influence our weather.
According to Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, “there is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring” this year.
The UK has been hit by extreme winter snow events in recent years, for example the so-called Beast from the East – which occurred in 2018.
But just because much of Britain was coated in snow back then due to a link with a SSW event – it doesn’t mean it will happen again this year.
What could it mean for the UK’s weather and when?
As mentioned, a major SSW event can be linked to freezing temperatures such as the ones seen in 2018 – but there are no guarantees.
Prof Scaife says: “Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
Sky’s England adds: “Other factors such as the distribution of warm and cold areas across the globe also have an influence.
“When they do develop they may push the cold weather across other parts of the world, e.g. China, North America, rather than Europe.
“And even when Europe is impacted, relatively small changes may mean that central and eastern Europe bear the brunt of the cold.”
Read more from Sky News:
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Snow and ice blanket Marine Park on the coast at South Shields in the North East in December 2022
So can the UK bank on heavy snow falling in the next few weeks?
In short, no.
Unfortunately, it’s too early to tell how weather forecasts will change following a SSW event.
Current forecasts “are not showing any major cold snap for the UK as a result of the current SSW”, England says.
“That doesn’t mean we won’t have cold spells – it’s cold now, after all, but that’s due to the normal progression of high and low pressure systems and nothing to do with an SSW.”
Let’s deal, first of all, with the question many of you will have: after today’s reduction to 4.25% will there be more interest rate cuts to come?
Today, the Bank of England did nothing to sway you – or the financial markets that bet on such things – from the assumption that after today’s quarter percentage point cut there will be further reductions in the cost of borrowing.
Indeed, right now, financial markets assume the Bank will cut UK interest rates down to 3.5% by early next year, and the Bank didn’t contradict that today.
Money blog: What interest rate cut means for your money
But (this being economics, there’s always a “but”) if there was one theme that overarched the Bank’s latest set of forecasts, it was that it’s becoming fiendishly difficult to predict the future.
Take tariffs. In theory, the Bank thinks they’ll actually be much less damaging than many had assumed, with the total impact not enough to push the UK into recession.
But that’s based on a few important assumptions, chief among them that Donald Trump doesn’t re-impose the reciprocal tariffs announced on 2 April – despite the fact that he’s explicitly said they are only temporarily paused. It was based on the assumption that the UK wouldn’t get a trade deal with the US, an assumption that was already out of date by the time the document was published.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
No one really has a clue
The Bank’s forecasts are, in other words, even more uncertain than usual.
Perhaps that helps explain why the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee had a rare three-way split in their vote this month, with two members voting to leave rates on hold, two voting to cut them by half a percentage point, and the remaining five carrying the decision and reducing them by 0.25%.
Now, even taking this uncertainty into account, there are a few things one can take from today’s Bank of England news, and the update from its American counterpart, the Federal Reserve, yesterday.
While tariffs are expected to push inflation up in the US, they are expected to push inflation down in the UK. The upshot is while the Federal Reserve is pausing its interest rate cuts, UK rates are coming down.
Every Bank of England forecast is, by definition, a historic document. Such things take time to model and write so, by the time they come out, they are always a little bit out of date. But never has this been more true of a Bank forecast than the one published today.
The big picture, however, is that no one really has a clue. No one knows what Donald Trump will do next. No one knows what the impact of his tariffs will be on the UK or, indeed, elsewhere. No one knows what this all spells for inflation or unemployment.
UK
VE Day anniversary: Veteran who lost three brothers in Second World War hopes celebrations offer people the chance to ‘learn from history’
A 101-year-old veteran, who has never publicly talked about her wartime experience, wants the VE Day 80th anniversary events to be a chance to reflect on the “unnecessary” conflicts we see today that she says are driven by “pure greed”.
Pauline Alexander was one of five siblings who all served in the Second World War – with three of them among the four family members she lost during the conflict.
She was encouraged to talk about what she went through by her daughter after she saw the Royal British Legion appealing for more surviving veterans to tell their stories.
80 years ago, as Sir Winston Churchill declared there was finally victory in Europe and the celebrations erupted in London, Ms Alexander was in Chelmsford with her mother and sister-in-law.
Sir Winston Churchill announces ‘victory in Europe’ in 1945
“I was at home on leave,” she said.
“We joined in the celebrations, the singing and dancing. It was very exciting. Everyone in Chelmsford had turned out, well those who were still there. But it was very… how can I put it? A feeling of what next… life had changed completely.
“We started [the war] as a family of seven, we ended as three.”
Like so many, Ms Alexander’s war was punctuated by loss.
Her father died while running the family surgical instrument business in 1943, and three of her brothers were killed.
Peter Kipling, an Army dispatch rider, died in a bike accident delivering a message to the war office in London. He was about to be sent to the front in preparation for D-Day.
Guy and Bernard Kipling, who were twins, were both navigators on RAF bombers.
They were shot down in 1941 and 1943, their bodies never came home.
All three are remembered on Peter’s gravestone in Broomfield Cemetery.
Pauline Alexander with her brother Peter Kipling who died before he was due to be sent to the front for D-Day
Pauline Alexander with her brother Guy Kipling who died in the conflict
Looking at photographs of her brothers, Ms Alexander quietly said: “That’s just how I remember them all, just like that.”
When I asked her how she felt when she heard they had died serving their country, she replied: “In those days of war you just had to accept these things.
“It was bound to happen at some time or other. Bernard served on Whitley bombers, and they were known as flying coffins.”
Ms Alexander’s story about her family, and the clerical work she did in the Women’s Royal Air Force (WRAF) from 1942-1946, including at bomber command at RAF Waddington, only came to light because of the Royal British Legion appeal.
She said she previously just thought: “It was our duty to do what we could and that was life, everyone was losing family… it was just something that happened.
“All part of life and living.”
Children wave flags from the ruins of their homes in Battersea, south London, as they celebrate VE Day in 1945. Pic: PA
Families fly flags and bunting in the street on VE Day in 1945. Pic: PA
I asked her how her mother reacted when she said she wanted to sign up.
Ms Alexander replied: “She said yes. It would do me good. I was getting too spoilt at home.”
She added: “If my brothers were in, I had to be in to do my bit too.”
Her mother, Rosa Kipling, was also a remarkable woman.
She lived until 105 and was recognised for bravery in the first honours list to feature MBEs in 1918, after surviving an explosion during the First World War in a munitions factory.
It is no wonder then that her children were all so committed to do their bit.
An elderly woman gets a hug from a GI in London on VE Day. Pic: AP
Sky’s Rhiannon Mills with Pauline Alexander
The sense of service and the acceptance of the sacrifices that had to be made now feel more important than ever, especially in the context of ongoing global conflicts.
That was something that Ms Alexander was keen to talk about from her home in March, Cambridgeshire, where she will be watching today’s events.
Read more:
New photos show how wartime films were made
Why King’s message to veterans is very personal
VE Day 80th anniversary celebration in pictures
Asked why she believes it is so important that we take time to remember today, she said: “Because it’s all part of history, and history is very important, because we learn from history.
“When you think of all the conflicts that are going on now and how it’s all unnecessary in a sense, just pure greed. Because what they went through [in the Second World War] was absolute hell.”
As I reflected with her that they truly are an amazing generation, Ms Alexander simply replied: “Yes, there’ll never be another one like it.”
The King and Queen have paid their respects to Britain’s war dead at a service to mark the 80th anniversary of VE Day.
The royal couple were among 2,000 people – including 78 veterans – who attended the ceremony at Westminster Abbey in London.
The thanksgiving service, which included music and readings, paused at midday for a national two-minute silence in memory of those who died.
Poppies surrounded the grave of the Unknown Warrior in the abbey
King Charles lays a wreath at the grave of the Unknown Warrior. Pic: Reuters
Followed by his son, the Prince of Wales. Pic: Reuters
State trumpeters play a fanfare during the service. Pic: Reuters
Other attendees included the Prince and Princess of Wales, along with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and some of his Downing Street predecessors, including David Cameron and Boris Johnson.
The King laid a wreath, which featured the message “We will never forget”, at the grave of the Unknown Warrior, followed by the Prince of Wales.
The Princess and Prince of Wales also paid their respects. Pic: Reuters
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer were among the dignitaries. Pic: Reuters
David Cameron, pictured arriving at the abbey with his wife Samantha, was one of several former prime ministers who attended. Pic: Reuters
At their side, watching from his wheelchair, was veteran Ken Hay, 99, who served in the infantry regiment.
Actor Josh Dylan read a letter from Lance Corporal Fredrick Burgess to his seven-year-old son Freddie, written while he was serving in Italy.
He quoted the serviceman, whose granddaughter Susan was among those in the abbey, as writing: “When I do come home, and it will not be very long now, I’m going to buy you something extra specially nice for being such a good boy.”
Members of the royal family at the thanksgiving service.
Pic: Reuters
Pic: PA
RAF veterans Kathleen, 101, and Roy Lawrence, 101, who have been married for 74 years, share a kiss at a VE Day anniversary event in Staffordshire. Pic: PA
Lance Corporal Burgess also described the rain in Italy and how his small tank, which he named Freddie II after his son, had been damaged with a “whacking big hole” by a bomb.
Dylan revealed: “Seven months after writing this letter, Lance Corporal Burgess was killed.”
An excerpt of wartime prime minister Sir Winston Churchill‘s 1945 victory speech, in which he declared the war in Europe was over, was also played.
His great-great-grandson Alexander Churchill, aged 10, lit a peace candle and later read a prayer for “peace in Europe and across the world”.
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