UK weather: Sudden stratospheric warming event ‘now likely’ – what is it and what does it mean?
This winter parts of the UK have already been hit by freezing temperatures and heavy snow – but a weather event expected to take place in the coming days has sparked fears the country could soon face an icy blast.
A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is “now likely”, according to forecasters – and could bring the return of bitterly cold conditions before spring.
Sky News weather producer Chris England says “sudden stratospheric warmings can lead to colder conditions over parts of the Northern Hemisphere through their interaction with the jet stream”.
But he warned these high pressure systems which are formed feeding cold air down from the north and east are not guaranteed.
What is a sudden stratospheric warming event?
SSW describes an event when “rapid warming occurs high up in the stratosphere”, according to the Met Office, but it can have consequences in our weather down on the surface in the weeks that follow.
This rapid warming in the stratosphere – between around 10km and 50km above the earth’s surface – is so high we don’t feel it on the ground.
The event follows a weakening of winds in what’s called the stratospheric polar vortex, high over the Arctic.
“The cold air then descends very rapidly in the polar vortex and this causes the temperature in the stratosphere to rise very rapidly, as much as 50C over only a few days; hence the term sudden stratospheric warming,” the Met Office says.
This event can impact the shape of the jet stream as the cold air sinks – sometimes leading to a long spell of dry, cold weather across the UK and northern Europe.
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Does it happen every year and will it happen this year?
SSW doesn’t happen every year, and when it does, it doesn’t always influence our weather.
According to Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, “there is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring” this year.
The UK has been hit by extreme winter snow events in recent years, for example the so-called Beast from the East – which occurred in 2018.
But just because much of Britain was coated in snow back then due to a link with a SSW event – it doesn’t mean it will happen again this year.
What could it mean for the UK’s weather and when?
As mentioned, a major SSW event can be linked to freezing temperatures such as the ones seen in 2018 – but there are no guarantees.
Prof Scaife says: “Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
Sky’s England adds: “Other factors such as the distribution of warm and cold areas across the globe also have an influence.
“When they do develop they may push the cold weather across other parts of the world, e.g. China, North America, rather than Europe.
“And even when Europe is impacted, relatively small changes may mean that central and eastern Europe bear the brunt of the cold.”
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So can the UK bank on heavy snow falling in the next few weeks?
In short, no.
Unfortunately, it’s too early to tell how weather forecasts will change following a SSW event.
Current forecasts “are not showing any major cold snap for the UK as a result of the current SSW”, England says.
“That doesn’t mean we won’t have cold spells – it’s cold now, after all, but that’s due to the normal progression of high and low pressure systems and nothing to do with an SSW.”
A nine-year-old girl found dead in Weston-super-Mare has been named on the day police revealed a teenager had been charged with her murder.
Emergency services were called to Lime Close in the Somerset town at 6.09pm on Monday but Aria Thorpe was pronounced dead at the scene.
Police said a 15-year-old boy had been charged with her murder and that a preliminary post-mortem found she died from a single stab wound.
The teenage boy – who can’t be named due to his age – will appear at Bristol Magistrates’ Court later today.
A police cordon remains in place as forensics officers continue their work.
Flowers and tributes have been left at the scene. Pic: PA
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Superintendent Jen Appleford, from Avon and Somerset Police, said the community was in shock and Aria’s family were being supported by police.
“It is impossible to adequately describe how traumatic the past 36 hours have been for them and we’d like to reiterate in the strongest possible terms their request for privacy,” she said.
Supt Appleford said police were working with local schools and other agencies to make sure support is available.
Britain loves chocolate.
We’re estimated to consume 8.2kg each every year, a good chunk of it at Christmas, but the cost of that everyday luxury habit has been rising fast.
Whitakers have been making chocolate in Skipton in North Yorkshire for 135 years, but they have never experienced price pressures as extreme as those in the last five.
“We buy liquid chocolate and since 2023, the price of our chocolate has doubled,” explains William Whitaker, the real-life Willy Wonka and the fourth generation of the family to run the business.
William Whitaker, managing director of the company
“It could have been worse. If we hadn’t been contracted [with a supplier], it would have trebled.
“That represents a £5,000 per-tonne increase, and we use a thousand tonnes a year. And we only sell £12-£13m of product, so it’s a massive effect.”
Whitakers makes 10 million pieces of chocolate a week in a factory on the much-expanded site of the original bakery where the business began.
Automated production lines snake through the site moulding, cutting, cooling, coating and wrapping a relentless procession of fondants, cremes, crisps and pure chocolate products for customers, including own-brand retail, supermarkets, and the catering trade.
Steepest inflation in the business
All of them have faced price increases as Whitakers has grappled with some of the steepest inflation in the food business.
Cocoa prices have soared in the last two years, largely because of a succession of poor cocoa harvests in West Africa, where Ghana and the Ivory Coast produce around two-thirds of global supply.
A combination of drought and crop disease cut global output by around 14% last year, pushing consumer prices in the other direction, with chocolate inflation passing 17% in the UK in October.
Skimpflation and shrinkflation
Some major brands have responded by cutting the chocolate content of products – “skimpflation” – or charging more for less – “shrinkflation”.
Household-name brands including Penguin and Club have cut the cocoa and milk solid content so far they can no longer be classified as chocolate, and are marketed instead as “chocolate-flavour”.
Whitakers have stuck to their recipes and product sizes, choosing to pass price increases on to customers while adapting products to the new market conditions.
“Not only are major brands putting up prices over 20%, sometimes 40%, they’ve also reduced the size of their pieces and sometimes the ingredients,” says William Whitaker.
“We haven’t done any of that. We knew that long-term, the market will fall again, and that happier days will return.
“We’ve introduced new products where we’ve used chocolate as a coating rather than a solid chocolate because the centre, which is sugar-based, is cheaper than the chocolate.
“We’ve got a big product range of fondant creams, and others like gingers and Brazil nuts, where we’re using that chocolate as a coating.”
The costs are adding up
A deluge of price rises
Brazil nuts have enjoyed their own spike in price, more than doubling to £15,000 a tonne at one stage.
On top of commodity prices determined by markets beyond their control, Whitakers face the same inflationary pressures as other UK businesses.
“We’ve had the minimum wage increasing every year, we had the national insurance rise last year, and sort of hidden a little bit in this budget is a business rate increase.
“This is a small business, we turn over £12m, but our rates will go up nearly £100,000 next year before any other costs.
“If you add up all the cocoa and all the other cost increases in 2024 and 2025, it’s nearly £3m of cost increases we’ve had to bear. Some of that is returning to a little normality. It does test the relevance of what you do.”
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