UK weather: Sudden stratospheric warming event ‘now likely’ – what is it and what does it mean?
This winter parts of the UK have already been hit by freezing temperatures and heavy snow – but a weather event expected to take place in the coming days has sparked fears the country could soon face an icy blast.
A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is “now likely”, according to forecasters – and could bring the return of bitterly cold conditions before spring.
Sky News weather producer Chris England says “sudden stratospheric warmings can lead to colder conditions over parts of the Northern Hemisphere through their interaction with the jet stream”.
But he warned these high pressure systems which are formed feeding cold air down from the north and east are not guaranteed.
What is a sudden stratospheric warming event?
SSW describes an event when “rapid warming occurs high up in the stratosphere”, according to the Met Office, but it can have consequences in our weather down on the surface in the weeks that follow.
This rapid warming in the stratosphere – between around 10km and 50km above the earth’s surface – is so high we don’t feel it on the ground.
The event follows a weakening of winds in what’s called the stratospheric polar vortex, high over the Arctic.
“The cold air then descends very rapidly in the polar vortex and this causes the temperature in the stratosphere to rise very rapidly, as much as 50C over only a few days; hence the term sudden stratospheric warming,” the Met Office says.
This event can impact the shape of the jet stream as the cold air sinks – sometimes leading to a long spell of dry, cold weather across the UK and northern Europe.
Get the latest 5-day weather forecast where you are
Does it happen every year and will it happen this year?
SSW doesn’t happen every year, and when it does, it doesn’t always influence our weather.
According to Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, “there is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring” this year.
The UK has been hit by extreme winter snow events in recent years, for example the so-called Beast from the East – which occurred in 2018.
But just because much of Britain was coated in snow back then due to a link with a SSW event – it doesn’t mean it will happen again this year.
What could it mean for the UK’s weather and when?
As mentioned, a major SSW event can be linked to freezing temperatures such as the ones seen in 2018 – but there are no guarantees.
Prof Scaife says: “Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
Sky’s England adds: “Other factors such as the distribution of warm and cold areas across the globe also have an influence.
“When they do develop they may push the cold weather across other parts of the world, e.g. China, North America, rather than Europe.
“And even when Europe is impacted, relatively small changes may mean that central and eastern Europe bear the brunt of the cold.”
Read more from Sky News:
Seven of the extreme weather records broken in 2022
Cold weather alert across England as ‘snow moon’ set to delight sky-gazers
Snow and ice blanket Marine Park on the coast at South Shields in the North East in December 2022
So can the UK bank on heavy snow falling in the next few weeks?
In short, no.
Unfortunately, it’s too early to tell how weather forecasts will change following a SSW event.
Current forecasts “are not showing any major cold snap for the UK as a result of the current SSW”, England says.
“That doesn’t mean we won’t have cold spells – it’s cold now, after all, but that’s due to the normal progression of high and low pressure systems and nothing to do with an SSW.”
Former British heavyweight world champion Anthony Joshua delivered a dose of reality to YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul as he won their much-anticipated showdown.
Joshua scored three knockdowns before landing a huge right hit on Paul halfway through the sixth round.
The British fighter lifted Paul’s hand in a show of respect after the fight broadcast on the streaming platform Netflix.
Joshua landing the right hit that knocked out Paul. Pic: AP
“Jake Paul has done really well tonight. I want to give him his props, he got up, time and time again,” he said about his opponent.
Joshua said it “wasn’t the best performance”, adding: “It took a bit longer than expected. But the right hand finally found the destination.”
Joshua celebrating his win after the fight. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, Paul said: “I’m feeling good, that was fun. I love this sport. I gave it my all, It’s f****** crazy. I had a blast.
“I got my ass beat, but that’s what this sport is about. I’mma (going to) come back and keep on winning.”
He added: “I just got tired to be honest. He did amazing and hits really hard.”
Jake Paul was knocked down three times before the final knockout in the sixth round. Pic: Reuters
The fight marked the end of a 14-month hiatus for Joshua, 36, while for 28-year-old Paul it was the biggest fight since his boxing career began in 2020.
At the weigh-in on Friday, Joshua boasted an almost two-stone advantage over Paul, who has regularly fought at cruiserweight since he entered the world of boxing.
Britain’s two-time world heavyweight champion tipped the scales at 243.4lbs (17st 5lbs) for his fight against Paul in Miami, while Paul weighed in at 216lbs (15st 6lbs) – a hefty 1.9st difference.
Joshua, who could not weigh more than 245lbs, is the lightest he has been since his first fight against Oleksandr Usyk in September 2021 when he was 240lbs. For his last fight against Daniel Dubois he weighed 252.5Ibs.
Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua at the weigh-in. Pic: Reuters
It is also only the second time that Paul weighed in over cruiserweight limit – the other time was when he fought 58-year-old Mike Tyson. Paul defeated Tyson by unanimous decision with 80-72, 79-73, and 79-73.
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David Walliams dropped by publisher HarperCollins UK after allegations of inappropriate behaviour
UK
Family of nine-year-old Aria Thorpe pay tribute to ‘beautiful soul’ as teen appears in court charged with murder
The family of a nine-year-old girl stabbed to death have said she was a “beautiful soul” who was brave, kind-hearted and “always put a smile on people’s faces”.
Police were called to Lime Close in Weston-super-Mare, Somerset, just before 6.10pm on Monday, where Aria Thorpe had suffered a single stab wound.
The child was pronounced dead at the scene.
In a tribute released by Avon and Somerset Police on Friday, the girl’s family on her mother’s side said: “For those who didn’t have the privilege of knowing Aria, she was the most beautiful little soul – happy-go-lucky, full of light, and joy.
“She loved to sing and dance, and she took such pride in dressing up, always wanting to look just like her mummy.”
Tom Thorpe, the girl’s father, said: “It’s hard to put into words how devastating it is, our little Aria, that you’re up there with the angels looking over us.”
It comes as a 15-year-old boy charged with Aria’s murder appeared in court.
Pic: Avon and Somerset Police
Aria was a ‘precious girl’
In their statement, Aria’s family on her mother’s side said her death “has devastated us beyond words”.
“Our hearts are broken in a way we never imagined possible,” they added.
“As a family, we are holding one another close and doing everything we can to support each other through this unimaginable time.”
They said they were “truly touched by the lovely messages we have received”, before asking “that our privacy is respected, as we try to come to terms with the terrible loss of our precious girl”.
Flowers laid in memory of the young girl
‘Wacky ways and outright madness’
Mr Thorpe said: “How sad it’s going to be not hearing ‘Dad, how long left?’ on our long journeys back and forth at weekends.
He then said that Aria was “such a brave, kind-hearted and a beautiful innocent soul”, and “always put a smile on people’s faces with your wacky ways and just outright madness”.
Mr Thorpe added: “Your other little family down here in Portsmouth will forever miss you.
“We’ll miss you begging to go outside, even in the pouring rain just to have as much fun as possible in the little time we had at weekends.
“You will be greatly missed, you special little angel. A life gone far too early but I hope a life lived well. We all love you dearly. Goodnight darling.”
Teenager in court
Meanwhile, a 15-year-old boy charged with Aria’s murder appeared at Bristol Crown Court on Friday, where he was remanded.
The teenager, who cannot be named because of his age, was arrested in the Somerset village of Worle at 6.19pm on Monday.
He is next due in court on 16 March 2026. Appearing via video link from youth detention accommodation, he spoke only to confirm his name.
Judge Peter Blair KC set a provisional trial date for 15 June during the hearing.
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