A week today, Rachel Reeves presents the spending review; how the budget is divided between government departments between 2026 and 2029 – the bulk of this parliament. 

It’s a foundational moment for this government – and a key to determining the success of this administration.

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So, what’s going to happen?

The chancellor did boost spending significantly in her first year, and this year there was a modest rise.

However, the uplift to day-to-day spending in the years ahead is more modest – and pared back further in March’s spring statement because of adverse financial conditions.

Plus, where will the £113bn of capital – project – spending go?

So, we’ve done a novel experiment.

We’ve taken Treasury documents, ministerial statements and reports from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

We put them all into AI – into the deep research function of ChatGPT – and asked it to write the spending review, calculate the winners and losers and work out what goes where, and why.

It comes with a health warning. We’re using experimental technology that is sometimes wrong, and while ChatGPT can access up-to-date data from across the web, it’s only trained on information up to October 2023.

There are no answers because discussions are still going on. Think of it like a polling projection – clues about the big picture as things move underneath.

But, critically, the story it tells tallies with the narrative I’m hearing from inside government too.

The winners? Defence, health and transport, with Angela Rayner’s housing department up as well.

Everywhere else is down, compared with this year’s spending settlement.

The Home Office, justice, culture, and business – facing real terms squeezes from here on in.

The aid budget from the Foreign Office, slashed – the Ministry of Defence the beneficiary. You heard about that this week.

Health – a Labour priority. I heard from sources a settlement of around 3%. This AI model puts it just above.

Transport – a surprise winner. Rachel Reeves thinks this is where her capital budget should go. Projects in the north to help hold voters who live there.

But, could this spell trouble?

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Education – down overall. Now this government will protect the schools budget. It will say ‘per pupil’ funding is up. But adult education is at risk. Is this where they find the savings?

So much else – Home Office down, but is that because asylum costs are going down.

Energy – they’re haggling over solar panels versus home insulation.

Justice should get what it wants, I am told. This isn’t about exact percentages. But you can see across lots of departments – things are tight.

Even though Rachel Reeves has already set the budgets for last year and this, and only needs to decide spending allocations from 2026 onwards, the graphs the Treasury will produce next week compare what will be spent to the last set of Tory plans.

This means their graphs will include the big spending increases they made last year – and flatter them more.

They’ll say that’s fair enough, others will disagree. But in the end, will it be enough for public services?

Voters in South Lanarkshire will go to the polls on Thursday to elect a new MSP for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.

The by-election comes following the death of SNP government minister Christina McKelvie.

The contest takes place less than a year before the Scottish parliament election, with the result potentially offering a snapshot of how the political landscape north of the border will look in 2026.

The SNP will be seeking to hold on to the seat, given the heavy losses to Labour at last year’s UK general election.

However, all eyes are on Reform UK and whether it will enjoy a “tartan bounce” following the party’s recent slew of local election wins in England.

Campaigning has been heated, with Reform UK accused of running a “racist” ad on Facebook against Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has continued to double down, accusing his rival of “sectarian politics”.

In response, the Scottish Labour MSP has branded Mr Farage a “poisonous little man” and “chief clown”, while SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney said: “He poses a threat to our values and must be stopped.”

But who will come out on top following Thursday’s vote?

Here are the candidates vying for support:

Collette Bradley, Scottish Socialist Party

Scottish Socialist Party candidate Collette Bradley told Sky News that locals she has met while out campaigning have been angry about “poverty, inequality and Labour’s attacks on welfare, our NHS and services”.

She added: “They have little faith in Labour or the SNP delivering change.

“We’ve offered hope with our unique policy of a socialist MSP who’ll remain on the average worker’s wage, keeping us firmly in step with constituents’ living conditions – we alone reject the corrupting influence of the £75,000 MSP salary.

“We’re offering concrete socialist alternatives to the miserable status quo – redistribution of wealth from the millionaires to the millions via progressive taxation.”

Ms Bradley said the party stands for a society built around the “needs of people, not profit”.

She added: “Ordinary lives can be transformed with measures like a £15-an-hour minimum wage; free public transport; and investment in jobs, wages, quality council housing, NHS, education, welfare and pensions.

“We urge voters to reject the continued failure of the political mainstream and be bolder in their demands by voting Scottish Socialist.”

Andy Brady, Scottish Family Party

Candidate Andy Brady told Sky News that Scottish Family Party policies and principles are “built upon honesty, integrity and a passion to see real change in our nation”.

He said: “My time spent speaking to the locals over the past several weeks has revealed a common response – people are fed up being let down.”

Mr Brady said there had been “failed promises” to help local businesses, to repair the roads, and to bring life to the town centres and high streets.

He said: “The general feeling is that communities are feeling jaded and frustrated.”

Urging voters to back the Scottish Family Party, he added: “We value the families, businesses and the education of our local communities and if we can support them, communities will flourish.”

Ross Lambie, Reform UK

South Lanarkshire councillor Ross Lambie is hoping to bring Reform UK’s “turquoise tide” to Scotland.

If Mr Farage’s party wins, it will put Scotland’s first minister on notice ahead of Holyrood 2026.

Mr Lambie, who defected from the Scottish Conservatives, told Sky News: “It’s been refreshing spending the past five or so weeks out on the doors in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.

“What’s been very clear is that people everywhere are fed up, angry and scunnered with the entire Scottish political establishment.

“They’re fed up with SNP, Tory and Labour lies and are looking for hope.

“Reform UK is offering people a chance of real and radical change by cutting tax, scrapping net zero, ending wokery and fighting for common sense.

“This is now a clear fight between the SNP and Reform – it’s that simple.”

Katy Loudon, Scottish National Party

South Lanarkshire councillor Katy Loudon is hoping to retain the seat for the SNP.

The former teacher told Sky News she had been speaking to people across the region “about what matters to them”.

She said: “People understandably feel let down by Labour.”

Ms Loudon highlighted the UK government’s axing of the universal winter fuel payment, which led to the Scottish government following suit before a partial U-turn.

Scottish Labour-run South Lanarkshire Council also intends to reduce its school transport provision, which Ms Loudon said will affect thousands of children.

She added: “The Labour Party has lost its way, Farage is on the rise as a result. With an invisible candidate, they’ve totally given up in this by-election.

“Meanwhile, the SNP is focusing on what matters to people and taking action to make things better – with record investment in our NHS, bringing back the winter fuel payment, scrapping peak rail fares and ending Labour’s two-child cap.

“Labour know they can’t win. Only the SNP can beat Farage on 5 June.”

Janice MacKay, UK Independence Party

UKIP candidate Janice MacKay told Sky News that her party would abolish the Scottish parliament if given the opportunity.

Speaking of “widespread disillusionment” amongst voters, she added: “UKIP offer something different.

“We wish to radically reduce the number of inadequate politicians in Scotland by abolishing altogether the Holyrood parliament.

“It is merely a glorified and expensive form of local authority. To that end, it is unnecessary.”

Ms MacKay believes the nation’s 32 local authorities should be given “strengthened powers”, with Westminster making the “main decisions” affecting the UK.

Ms MacKay added: “Were UKIP to win any seats in the Holyrood talking shop, we should donate 40% of our MSP salary to a Scottish veterans charity.”

Ann McGuinness, Scottish Green Party

Scottish Green Party candidate Ann McGuinness is the director of a charity which promotes rural connections and champions rural diversity.

The mother-of-two says her own lived experiences of poverty and disability provide her with “valuable insight” into the challenges faced by many whose voices are often unheard in the public discourse.

She has been described by her party as a “dedicated feminist and environmental justice campaigner”.

As well as promoting climate education, Ms McGuinness is also said to have a “strong track record of working across party lines to support women in politics”.

Ms McGuinness said: “Every vote for the Scottish Greens will be a positive vote for a fairer and greener Scotland and a brighter future for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.

“If we are to build a truly just and green future, we need to empower every town and village and ensure that no one is left behind.”

Aisha Mir, Scottish Liberal Democrats

Scottish Liberal Democrats candidate Aisha Mir told Sky News she has entered politics to “get things done”.

She added: “For too many people, it feels like nothing works anymore.

“The SNP have failed Scotland for 18 years. The Conservatives are lurching to extremes. Labour are already letting people down. Reform have no real solutions.

“I want to be a hard-working local champion who will put your priorities first.”

Ms Mir said her party offers a vision of Scotland “that is back to its best”.

She added: “A Scotland where people can see a GP and an NHS dentist in good time. A Scotland that once again gives our children a world-class education.

“A Scotland with a growing economy and growing businesses, where the government looks after your money and works with our neighbours.

“Vote Scottish Liberal Democrats for a candidate who is focused on what really matters to you.”

Richard Nelson, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party

Scottish Conservatives candidate Richard Nelson told Sky News he got into politics “to make a difference”.

The South Lanarkshire councillor and NHS worker said: “People across this constituency want politicians to be focused on what really matters to them rather than left-wing politicians focusing on their fringe obsessions.”

Mr Nelson said he has seen “first-hand as an NHS employee the damage the SNP have done to the health service during their 18 years in power”.

He added: “My wife disgracefully had to spend 50 hours on a trolley in A&E recently due to the SNP’s neglect of frontline care.

“If people in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse want to have an MSP who will stand up for those who just want politicians to show some common sense for a change, then you should vote for myself and the Scottish Conservatives on Thursday.”

Davy Russell, Scottish Labour Party

Scottish Labour candidate Davy Russell told Sky News he has seen “first-hand the damage the SNP has done” to the community after almost two decades in power.

He said: “Throughout this campaign, I have been speaking to people who are feeling abandoned by this SNP government.

“People are languishing on long NHS waiting lists, worried about the state of our schools, and sick of seeing our high streets decline – but this is not as good as it gets.

“The SNP don’t deserve to win here, and the divisive politics of Reform cannot win. This by-election is a straight choice between more of the same SNP failure or a new direction with Scottish Labour.”

Mr Russell vowed to “fight tirelessly for the community I love” if he wins.

He added: “I will stand firmly against the downgrading of the Wishaw Neonatal Unit, campaign for an end to SNP cuts to our local services, and demand real action to tackle the crisis in our NHS.

“This is a chance to not only select a local champion for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, but to begin to chart a new direction for the whole of Scotland.”

Marc Wilkinson, Independent

Marc Wilkinson, a pizza shop owner from the Scottish capital, is the leader of the Edinburgh People party.

The businessman is also behind the South Scotland People party, which is part of a bid to establish regional parties across the nation for the Holyrood list vote next year.

Mr Wilkinson’s aim is for “the people of Scotland to choose to vote for themselves”.

Pledging to take instruction directly from the constituents if he were to win the upcoming by-election, he added: “Elect me and you will be my boss. Don’t choose protest. Choose progress.”

“We’ve got two,” explains Emer Szczygiel, emergency department head of nursing at King George Hospital, as she walks inside a pastel coloured room. 

“If I had my time back again, we would probably have four, five, or six because these have helped us so much in the department with the really difficult patients.”

On one wall, there’s floral wallpaper. It is scored through with a graffiti scrawl. The words must have been scratched out with fingernails.

There are no other implements in here.

Patients being held in this secure room would have been searched to make sure they are not carrying anything they can use to harm themselves – or others.

There is a plastic bed secured to the wall. No bedding though, as this room is “ligature light”, meaning nothing in here could be used for self harm.

On the ceiling, there is CCTV that feeds into a control room on another part of the Ilford hospital’s sprawling grounds.

“So this is one of two rooms that when we were undergoing our works, we recognised, about three years ago, mental health was causing us more of an issue, so we’ve had two rooms purpose built,” Emer says.

“They’re as compliant as we can get them with a mental health room – they’re ligature light, as opposed to ligature free. They’re under 24-hour CCTV surveillance.”

There are two doors, both heavily reinforced. One can be used by staff to make an emergency escape if they are under any threat.

What is unusual about these rooms is that they are built right inside a busy accident and emergency department.

The doors are just feet away from a nurse’s station, where medical staff are trying to deal with acute ED (emergency department) attendances.

The number of mental health patients in a crisis attending A&E has reached crisis levels.

Some will be experiencing psychotic episodes and are potentially violent, presenting a threat to themselves, other patients, clinical staff and security teams deployed to de-escalate the situation.

Like physically-ill patients, they require the most urgent care but are now facing some of the longest waits on record.

On a fairly quiet Wednesday morning, the ED team is already managing five mental health patients.

One, a diminutive South Asian woman, is screaming hysterically.

She is clearly very agitated and becoming more distressed by the minute. Despite her size, she is surrounded by at least five security guards.

She has been here for 12 hours and wants to leave, but can’t as she’s being held under the Mental Capacity Act.

Her frustration boils over as she pushes against the chests of the security guards who encircle her.

“We see about 150 to 200 patients a day through this emergency department, but we’re getting on average about 15 to 20 mental health presentations to the department,” Emer explains.

“Some of these patients can be really difficult to manage and really complex.”

“If a patient’s in crisis and wants to harm themselves, there’s lots of things in this area that you can harm yourself with,” the nurse adds.

“It’s trying to balance that risk and make sure every emergency department in the country is deemed a place of safety. But there is a lot of risk that comes with emergency departments, because they’re not purposeful for mental health patients.”

In a small side room, Ajay Kumar and his wife are waiting patiently by their son’s bedside.

He’s experienced psychotic episodes since starting university in 2018 and his father says he can become unpredictable and violent.

Ajay says his son “is under a section three order – that means six months in hospital”.

“They sectioned him,” he tells us.

“He should be secure now, he shouldn’t go out in public. Last night he ran away [from hospital] and walked all the way home. It took him four and a half hours to come home.

“I mean, he got three and a half hours away. Even though he’s totally mental, he still finds his way home and he was so tired and the police were looking for him.”

Now they are all back in hospital and could be waiting “for days”, Ajay says.

“I don’t know how many. They’re not telling us anything.”

Matthew Trainer, chief executive of Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust, is at pains to stress nobody is blaming the patients.

“We’ve seen, particularly over the last few years, a real increase in the number of people in mental health crisis coming into A&E for support,” he says.

“And I don’t know if this is because of the pandemic or wider economic pressures, but what we’re seeing every day is more and more people coming here as their first port of call.”

The hospital boss adds: “If you get someone who’s really distressed, someone who is perhaps experiencing psychosis etc, I’m seeing increasing numbers of complaints from other patients and their families about the environment they’ve had to wait in.

“And they’re not blaming the mental health patients for being here.

“But what they’re saying is being in a really busy accident & emergency with ambulances, with somebody highly distressed, and you’re sat there with an elderly relative or a sick child or whatever – it’s hard for everyone.

“There’s no blame in this. It’s something we’ve got to work together to try to fix.”

New Freedom of Information data gathered by the Royal College of Nursing shows that over the last five years, more than 1.3 million people in a mental health crisis presented to A&E departments.

That’s expected to be a significant underestimate however, as only around a quarter of English trusts handed over data.

For these patients, waits of 12 hours or more for a mental health bed have increased by more than 380%.

Over the last decade, the number of overnight beds in mental health units declined by almost 3,700. That’s around 17%.

The Department for Health and Social Care told Sky News: “We know people with mental health issues are not always getting the support or care they deserve and incidents like this are unacceptable.

“We are transforming mental health services – including investing £26m to support people in mental health crisis, hiring more staff, delivering more talking therapies, and getting waiting lists down through our Plan for Change.”

Claire Murdoch, NHS England’s national mental health director, also told Sky News: “While we know there is much more to do to deal with record demand including on waits, if a patient is deemed to need support in A&E, almost all emergency departments now have a psychiatric liaison team available 24/7 so people can get specialist mental health support alongside physical treatment.

“The NHS is working with local authorities to ensure that mental health patients are given support to leave hospital as soon as they are ready, so that space can be freed up across hospitals including A&Es.”

Patients in a mental health crisis and attending hospital are stuck between two failing systems.

A shortage of specialist beds means they are left untreated in a hospital not designed to help them.

And they are failed by a social care network overwhelmed by demand and unable to provide the early intervention care needed.