A worrying trend is emerging for the Tories in by-elections – and it’s not one they should brush off
It’s no surprise that Labour have held onto the West Lancashire parliamentary seat in this by-election. But historic vote shares point to another terrible night for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives and one for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour to celebrate.
The outgoing MP Rosie Cooper achieved 52% of the vote in 2019 and her Conservative rival got just 36%, in a seat that’s been Labour since the last substantial boundary changes in 1997.
This time, Labour are up 10 points to a record 62.3%, and the Tory vote fell to just 25.4% of ballots – a decline of almost 11 points and another record.
In many ways, the result is unremarkable.
We expected Labour to increase their already sizeable majority in the seat, and we anticipated the Tories might keep 60% of their share, which they both did healthily. By-election turnout is also in the expected region. So, what makes this result interesting?
Ashley Dalton takes over from a representative that didn’t resign in disgrace – a rare occurrence in this parliament – as Rosie Cooper stepped down to become Chair of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.
Yet Labour-strong North West by-elections are seemingly not rare, this being the third in as many months for the region.
About 30 miles away from this seat, the City of Chester saw Labour up 11 points in December, and the Tories down 16 points.
A few weeks later in Stretford and Urmston, just 20 miles down the road, the result was nine points in Labour’s favour – a loss of 11 points for the Conservatives.
In all three contests, vote share records were set. The highest-ever proportions for Labour, the lowest ever for the Conservatives.
It’s hard to extrapolate from one by-election, but three starts to become a trend. And it’s not one the Tories should brush off.
In particular, these results can tell us about what we might expect in the local elections this May.
These three by-elections were all seats where Labour were doing well, meaning there’s fewer available votes for them to pick up. At the same time, the Conservatives weren’t doing so well, so there’s less far to fall.
Similarly in 2019, when the most council seats up for election in 2023 were last contested, the blue corner lost 1,335, the red corner only down 85.
Labour didn’t do as badly as the Conservatives in those local elections, but both lost out to smaller parties and independents.
To do well this May and become the largest party of local government in England for the first time in 20 years, Labour need to pick up 500 local council seats.
To dodge a crushing defeat, the Conservatives must lose hundreds and not thousands.
And sprinkles of by-election results indicate Labour might hit that target, while the Tories miss theirs.
It’s worth remembering that in the 2019 local elections, Boris Johnson wasn’t even PM yet, so we’ll be comparing Mr Sunak’s result to Theresa May’s.
While there’s been two prime ministers since then, the Tories are polling just as badly now as local election time under Mrs May.
The difference is Labour are doing much better now. Smaller parties are losing their deposits in by-elections. The Conservatives are setting records for the lowest vote share in seats they’re already doing badly in.
That’s a reality that’s difficult to put a spin on.
In all by-elections this parliament, turnout is down 29% on average – another new record.
This means that West Lancashire’s turnout of 31.4% is not surprising, even though it’s 40 points lower than the 2019 general election, and in the top 20 biggest turnout drops since 1945.
Yet just as expected, turnout was higher than in Stretford and Urmston, now that the weather is improving. It’s also likely to be because of the higher-than-average age of the population in West Lancs.
Still, the Conservatives are usually the biggest benefactors if this lower turnout continues at a general election.
And if this is the final by-election before May, it’ll have been the last contest in Britain where voters can cast a ballot without ID. This new voter ID law may depress turnout even further.
To get your free voter ID, head to https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/voter-id.
Senior Tories had prepared for the worst
A couple of hours before the result of the West Lancashire by-election was declared shortly before 2am, senior Tories at the count were prepared for the worst.
Privately, they were predicting a 60% share of the vote for Labour and 25% for the Conservatives.
They weren’t far wrong. The Tory vote has indeed slumped from over 36% at the 2019 general election to about 25%. But Labour’s share was higher than the Tories feared, above 62%.
Donald Trump has said that his 28-point peace plan for Ukraine is “by far” not the “final offer”, ahead of crisis talks in Geneva.
Meeting on the sidelines of a G20 summit in South Africa, European and other Western leaders scrambled to respond to the US president’s demand for Ukraine to accept the plan drawn up by the Trump administration and the Kremlin.
In a joint statement on Saturday, they said the plan announced on Friday could serve as a basis for talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine but required “additional work”.
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How Ukraine peace plan came about
Follow the latest on the Ukraine peace plan
As a result, a meeting has been hastily convened in Geneva, Switzerland, on Sunday, where national security advisers from the E3 – France, Britain and Germany – will meet EU, US and Ukrainian officials for further discussions.
Ahead of the talks, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address to his nation that Ukrainian representatives at the talks “know how to protect Ukrainian national interests and exactly what is needed to prevent Russia from carrying out” another invasion.
“Real peace is always based on security and justice,” the Ukrainian leader added.
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PM: ‘More to do’ on US Ukraine peace plan
The 28-point peace plan closely resembles the list of demands repeatedly stated by the Kremlin since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago and if adopted, would see Ukraine cede territory to Russia – and cut the size of its military.
Mr Trump has said he wants a response from Ukraine by Thursday, while suggesting an extension could be possible.
On Saturday, Mr Trump told reporters outside the White House that the plan was not the “final offer” when asked.
He said: “We’d like to get the peace, it should’ve happened a long time ago. The Ukraine war with Russia should’ve never happened. If I was president, it would have never happened. We’re trying to get it ended. One way or another, we have to get it ended.”
His secretary of state Marco Rubio insisted that the peace proposal was authored by the US, despite what a handful of senators have alleged.
“It is based on input from the Russian side. But it is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine,” he said.
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The 28-point peace plan explained
Leaders have sought to balance praise for President Trump’s attempt to end the war with recognition that some terms in his proposal are unpalatable for Kyiv.
“There are many things that cannot simply be an American proposal, which requires broader consultation,” French
President Emmanuel Macron said on the sidelines of the G20, adding that an agreement had to allow for peace for Ukrainians and “security for all Europeans”.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz underlined the importance to Europe of supporting Ukraine.
“If Ukraine loses this war and possibly collapses, it will have an impact on European politics as a whole, on the entire European continent. And that is why we are so committed to this issue,” he said.
“There is currently an opportunity to end this war, but we are still quite a long way from a good outcome for everyone.”
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Keir Starmer calls for growth plan at G20
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told reporters in Johannesburg: “We are concerned about [caps on military], because it’s fundamental that Ukraine has to be able to defend itself if there’s a ceasefire.”
He said the proposal “requires additional work”, adding: “And that’s why there’s been the agreement that in Geneva tomorrow [Sunday], you’ll have senior US personnel, you’ll have European NSAs [national security advisers], including the UK NSA, and obviously Ukrainians there to work further on the draft.”
Sir Keir also spoke to Mr Trump, relaying discussions held at G20 to the US leader, according to a Downing Street spokesperson, who added that the two leaders would speak again on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir, who has defended his decision to fly to the G20 days before a difficult budget, said the role of the G20 is “critical at this moment”.
“The G20 has worked together before to fix fundamental problems in the global economy. We need to find ways to play a constructive role again today in the face of the world challenges,” he said.
“I’d like to see us come together around a five-point plan for growth that leaves no one behind.”
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz at the G20 summit. Pic: PA
The US, however, is boycotting the talks.
The Trump administration made its opposition to South Africa’s G20 agenda clear earlier this year when the country started holding meetings ahead of the summit. South Africa gets to set the agenda as the country holding the rotating G20 presidency.
G20 leaders broke with tradition and adopted a declaration at the start of their summit – despite opposition from the US.
Vincent Magwenya, spokesman for South African president Cyril Ramaphosa, said a leaders’ declaration was adopted unanimously in Johannesburg.
The White House later accused South Africa of refusing to facilitate a smooth transition of the G20 presidency.
Pic: AP
Read more:
Analysis: Europe scrambles at G20 over Ukraine peace plane
G20 lands in South Africa: But who feels forgotten?
The G20 bloc was formed in 1999 as a bridge between rich and poor nations to confront global financial crises.
While it often operates in the shadow of the powerful Group of Seven nations, G20 members represent around 85% of the world’s economy, 75% of international trade and more than half the global population.
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