A worrying trend is emerging for the Tories in by-elections – and it’s not one they should brush off
It’s no surprise that Labour have held onto the West Lancashire parliamentary seat in this by-election. But historic vote shares point to another terrible night for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives and one for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour to celebrate.
The outgoing MP Rosie Cooper achieved 52% of the vote in 2019 and her Conservative rival got just 36%, in a seat that’s been Labour since the last substantial boundary changes in 1997.
This time, Labour are up 10 points to a record 62.3%, and the Tory vote fell to just 25.4% of ballots – a decline of almost 11 points and another record.
In many ways, the result is unremarkable.
We expected Labour to increase their already sizeable majority in the seat, and we anticipated the Tories might keep 60% of their share, which they both did healthily. By-election turnout is also in the expected region. So, what makes this result interesting?
Ashley Dalton takes over from a representative that didn’t resign in disgrace – a rare occurrence in this parliament – as Rosie Cooper stepped down to become Chair of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.
Yet Labour-strong North West by-elections are seemingly not rare, this being the third in as many months for the region.
About 30 miles away from this seat, the City of Chester saw Labour up 11 points in December, and the Tories down 16 points.
A few weeks later in Stretford and Urmston, just 20 miles down the road, the result was nine points in Labour’s favour – a loss of 11 points for the Conservatives.
In all three contests, vote share records were set. The highest-ever proportions for Labour, the lowest ever for the Conservatives.
It’s hard to extrapolate from one by-election, but three starts to become a trend. And it’s not one the Tories should brush off.
In particular, these results can tell us about what we might expect in the local elections this May.
These three by-elections were all seats where Labour were doing well, meaning there’s fewer available votes for them to pick up. At the same time, the Conservatives weren’t doing so well, so there’s less far to fall.
Similarly in 2019, when the most council seats up for election in 2023 were last contested, the blue corner lost 1,335, the red corner only down 85.
Labour didn’t do as badly as the Conservatives in those local elections, but both lost out to smaller parties and independents.
To do well this May and become the largest party of local government in England for the first time in 20 years, Labour need to pick up 500 local council seats.
To dodge a crushing defeat, the Conservatives must lose hundreds and not thousands.
And sprinkles of by-election results indicate Labour might hit that target, while the Tories miss theirs.
It’s worth remembering that in the 2019 local elections, Boris Johnson wasn’t even PM yet, so we’ll be comparing Mr Sunak’s result to Theresa May’s.
While there’s been two prime ministers since then, the Tories are polling just as badly now as local election time under Mrs May.
The difference is Labour are doing much better now. Smaller parties are losing their deposits in by-elections. The Conservatives are setting records for the lowest vote share in seats they’re already doing badly in.
That’s a reality that’s difficult to put a spin on.
In all by-elections this parliament, turnout is down 29% on average – another new record.
This means that West Lancashire’s turnout of 31.4% is not surprising, even though it’s 40 points lower than the 2019 general election, and in the top 20 biggest turnout drops since 1945.
Yet just as expected, turnout was higher than in Stretford and Urmston, now that the weather is improving. It’s also likely to be because of the higher-than-average age of the population in West Lancs.
Still, the Conservatives are usually the biggest benefactors if this lower turnout continues at a general election.
And if this is the final by-election before May, it’ll have been the last contest in Britain where voters can cast a ballot without ID. This new voter ID law may depress turnout even further.
To get your free voter ID, head to https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/voter-id.
Senior Tories had prepared for the worst
A couple of hours before the result of the West Lancashire by-election was declared shortly before 2am, senior Tories at the count were prepared for the worst.
Privately, they were predicting a 60% share of the vote for Labour and 25% for the Conservatives.
They weren’t far wrong. The Tory vote has indeed slumped from over 36% at the 2019 general election to about 25%. But Labour’s share was higher than the Tories feared, above 62%.
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Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE – as Israeli PM says he was murdered in ‘antisemitic terror incident’
The COP29 climate talks have reached a last ditch deal on cash for developing countries, pulling the summit back from the brink of collapse after a group of countries stormed out of a negotiating room earlier.
The slew of deals finally signed off in the small hours of Sunday morning in Azerbaijan includes one that proved hardest of all – one about money.
Eventually the more than 190 countries in Baku agreed a target for richer polluting countries such as the UK, EU and Japan to drum up $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations both curb and adapt to climate change.
It is a far cry from the $1.3trn experts say is needed, and from the $500bn that vulnerable countries like Uganda had said they would be willing to accept.
But in the end they were forced to, knowing they could not afford to live without it, nor wait until next year to try again, when a Donald Trump presidency would make things even harder.
Bolivia’s lead negotiator Diego Pacheco called it an “insult”, while the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege said it was “not nearly enough, but it’s a start”.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country.
“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work still to do. So this is no time for victory laps.”
The funding deal was clinched more than 24 hours into overtime, and against what felt like all the odds.
The talks were rocked from the start by the incoming presidency of climate denier Mr Trump, the moment Argentina’s team were recalled back to Buenos Aires by their right-wing president and a controversial letter that sent shockwaves through the United Nations.
Pic: AP
The fraught two weeks of negotiations pitted the anger of developing countries who are footing the bill for more dangerous weather that they did little to cause, against the tight public finances of rich countries.
A relieved Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, climate envoy for Panama, said there is “light at the end of the tunnel”.
Just hours ago, the talks almost fell apart as furious vulnerable nations stormed out of negotiations in frustration over that elusive funding goal.
They were also angry with oil and gas producing countries, who stood accused of trying to dilute aspects of the deal on cutting fossil fuels.
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Climate-vulnerable nations storm out of talks
The UN talks work on consensus, meaning everyone has to agree for a deal to fly.
A row over how to follow up on last year’s pledge to “transition away from fossil fuels” was left unresolved and punted into next year, following objections from Chile and Switzerland for being too weak.
A draft deal simply “reaffirmed” the commitment but did not dial up the pressure in the way the UK, EU, island states and many others here wanted.
Saudi Arabia fought the hardest against any step forward on cutting fossil fuels, the primary cause of climate change that is intensifying floods, drought and fires around the world.
Governments did manage to strike a deal on carbon markets at COP29, which has been 10 years in the making and will allow countries to trade emissions cuts.
‘Not everything we wanted’
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The UK’s energy secretary, Ed Miliband, said the deal is “not everything we or others wanted”, but described it as a “step forward”.
“It’s a deal that will drive forward the clean energy transition, which is essential for jobs and growth in Britain and for protecting us all against the worsening climate crisis,” he added.
“Today’s agreement sends the signal that the clean energy transition is unstoppable.
“It is the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century and through our championing of it we can help crowd in private investment.”
Protesters at the summit in Baku. Pic: AP
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The Azerbaijan team leading COP29 said: “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator.
“We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”
At least 20 people have been killed and 66 injured in Israeli strikes on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.
Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dig through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.
The attack destroyed an eight-storey residential building and badly damaged several others around it in the Basta neighbourhood at 4am (2am UK time) on Saturday.
The central Basta neighbourhood in Beirut
The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack and has not commented on the casualties.
At least four bombs were dropped in the attack – the fourth targeting the city centre this week.
A separate drone strike in the southern port city of Tyre this morning killed two people and injured three, according to the state-run National News Agency.
The victims were Palestinian refugees from the nearby al Rashidieh camp who were out fishing, according to Mohammed Bikai, spokesperson for the Fatah Palestinian faction in the Tyre area.
Israel’s military warned residents today in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs that they were near Hezbollah facilities, which the army would target in the near future. The warning, posted on X, told people to evacuate at least 500 metres away.
The army said that over the past day it had conducted intelligence-based strikes on Hezbollah targets in Dahiyeh, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has a strong presence. It said it hit several command centres and weapons storage facilities.
Pic: AP
Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.
Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.
According to the Lebanese health ministry, at least 3,670 people have been killed in Israeli attacks there, with more than 15,400 wounded.
It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.
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‘Dozens’ of Palestinians killed in Israeli airstrike
Meanwhile, six people, including three children and two women, were killed in the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis.
Some 44,176 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry.
The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage.
US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.
Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.
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