A worrying trend is emerging for the Tories in by-elections – and it’s not one they should brush off
It’s no surprise that Labour have held onto the West Lancashire parliamentary seat in this by-election. But historic vote shares point to another terrible night for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives and one for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour to celebrate.
The outgoing MP Rosie Cooper achieved 52% of the vote in 2019 and her Conservative rival got just 36%, in a seat that’s been Labour since the last substantial boundary changes in 1997.
This time, Labour are up 10 points to a record 62.3%, and the Tory vote fell to just 25.4% of ballots – a decline of almost 11 points and another record.
In many ways, the result is unremarkable.
We expected Labour to increase their already sizeable majority in the seat, and we anticipated the Tories might keep 60% of their share, which they both did healthily. By-election turnout is also in the expected region. So, what makes this result interesting?
Ashley Dalton takes over from a representative that didn’t resign in disgrace – a rare occurrence in this parliament – as Rosie Cooper stepped down to become Chair of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.
Yet Labour-strong North West by-elections are seemingly not rare, this being the third in as many months for the region.
About 30 miles away from this seat, the City of Chester saw Labour up 11 points in December, and the Tories down 16 points.
A few weeks later in Stretford and Urmston, just 20 miles down the road, the result was nine points in Labour’s favour – a loss of 11 points for the Conservatives.
In all three contests, vote share records were set. The highest-ever proportions for Labour, the lowest ever for the Conservatives.
It’s hard to extrapolate from one by-election, but three starts to become a trend. And it’s not one the Tories should brush off.
In particular, these results can tell us about what we might expect in the local elections this May.
These three by-elections were all seats where Labour were doing well, meaning there’s fewer available votes for them to pick up. At the same time, the Conservatives weren’t doing so well, so there’s less far to fall.
Similarly in 2019, when the most council seats up for election in 2023 were last contested, the blue corner lost 1,335, the red corner only down 85.
Labour didn’t do as badly as the Conservatives in those local elections, but both lost out to smaller parties and independents.
To do well this May and become the largest party of local government in England for the first time in 20 years, Labour need to pick up 500 local council seats.
To dodge a crushing defeat, the Conservatives must lose hundreds and not thousands.
And sprinkles of by-election results indicate Labour might hit that target, while the Tories miss theirs.
It’s worth remembering that in the 2019 local elections, Boris Johnson wasn’t even PM yet, so we’ll be comparing Mr Sunak’s result to Theresa May’s.
While there’s been two prime ministers since then, the Tories are polling just as badly now as local election time under Mrs May.
The difference is Labour are doing much better now. Smaller parties are losing their deposits in by-elections. The Conservatives are setting records for the lowest vote share in seats they’re already doing badly in.
That’s a reality that’s difficult to put a spin on.
In all by-elections this parliament, turnout is down 29% on average – another new record.
This means that West Lancashire’s turnout of 31.4% is not surprising, even though it’s 40 points lower than the 2019 general election, and in the top 20 biggest turnout drops since 1945.
Yet just as expected, turnout was higher than in Stretford and Urmston, now that the weather is improving. It’s also likely to be because of the higher-than-average age of the population in West Lancs.
Still, the Conservatives are usually the biggest benefactors if this lower turnout continues at a general election.
And if this is the final by-election before May, it’ll have been the last contest in Britain where voters can cast a ballot without ID. This new voter ID law may depress turnout even further.
To get your free voter ID, head to https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/voter-id.
Senior Tories had prepared for the worst
A couple of hours before the result of the West Lancashire by-election was declared shortly before 2am, senior Tories at the count were prepared for the worst.
Privately, they were predicting a 60% share of the vote for Labour and 25% for the Conservatives.
They weren’t far wrong. The Tory vote has indeed slumped from over 36% at the 2019 general election to about 25%. But Labour’s share was higher than the Tories feared, above 62%.
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
👉 Listen to Sky News Daily on your podcast app 👈
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway