A worrying trend is emerging for the Tories in by-elections – and it’s not one they should brush off
It’s no surprise that Labour have held onto the West Lancashire parliamentary seat in this by-election. But historic vote shares point to another terrible night for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives and one for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour to celebrate.
The outgoing MP Rosie Cooper achieved 52% of the vote in 2019 and her Conservative rival got just 36%, in a seat that’s been Labour since the last substantial boundary changes in 1997.
This time, Labour are up 10 points to a record 62.3%, and the Tory vote fell to just 25.4% of ballots – a decline of almost 11 points and another record.
In many ways, the result is unremarkable.
We expected Labour to increase their already sizeable majority in the seat, and we anticipated the Tories might keep 60% of their share, which they both did healthily. By-election turnout is also in the expected region. So, what makes this result interesting?
Ashley Dalton takes over from a representative that didn’t resign in disgrace – a rare occurrence in this parliament – as Rosie Cooper stepped down to become Chair of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust.
Yet Labour-strong North West by-elections are seemingly not rare, this being the third in as many months for the region.
About 30 miles away from this seat, the City of Chester saw Labour up 11 points in December, and the Tories down 16 points.
A few weeks later in Stretford and Urmston, just 20 miles down the road, the result was nine points in Labour’s favour – a loss of 11 points for the Conservatives.
In all three contests, vote share records were set. The highest-ever proportions for Labour, the lowest ever for the Conservatives.
It’s hard to extrapolate from one by-election, but three starts to become a trend. And it’s not one the Tories should brush off.
In particular, these results can tell us about what we might expect in the local elections this May.
These three by-elections were all seats where Labour were doing well, meaning there’s fewer available votes for them to pick up. At the same time, the Conservatives weren’t doing so well, so there’s less far to fall.
Similarly in 2019, when the most council seats up for election in 2023 were last contested, the blue corner lost 1,335, the red corner only down 85.
Labour didn’t do as badly as the Conservatives in those local elections, but both lost out to smaller parties and independents.
To do well this May and become the largest party of local government in England for the first time in 20 years, Labour need to pick up 500 local council seats.
To dodge a crushing defeat, the Conservatives must lose hundreds and not thousands.
And sprinkles of by-election results indicate Labour might hit that target, while the Tories miss theirs.
It’s worth remembering that in the 2019 local elections, Boris Johnson wasn’t even PM yet, so we’ll be comparing Mr Sunak’s result to Theresa May’s.
While there’s been two prime ministers since then, the Tories are polling just as badly now as local election time under Mrs May.
The difference is Labour are doing much better now. Smaller parties are losing their deposits in by-elections. The Conservatives are setting records for the lowest vote share in seats they’re already doing badly in.
That’s a reality that’s difficult to put a spin on.
In all by-elections this parliament, turnout is down 29% on average – another new record.
This means that West Lancashire’s turnout of 31.4% is not surprising, even though it’s 40 points lower than the 2019 general election, and in the top 20 biggest turnout drops since 1945.
Yet just as expected, turnout was higher than in Stretford and Urmston, now that the weather is improving. It’s also likely to be because of the higher-than-average age of the population in West Lancs.
Still, the Conservatives are usually the biggest benefactors if this lower turnout continues at a general election.
And if this is the final by-election before May, it’ll have been the last contest in Britain where voters can cast a ballot without ID. This new voter ID law may depress turnout even further.
To get your free voter ID, head to https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/voter-id.
Senior Tories had prepared for the worst
A couple of hours before the result of the West Lancashire by-election was declared shortly before 2am, senior Tories at the count were prepared for the worst.
Privately, they were predicting a 60% share of the vote for Labour and 25% for the Conservatives.
They weren’t far wrong. The Tory vote has indeed slumped from over 36% at the 2019 general election to about 25%. But Labour’s share was higher than the Tories feared, above 62%.
To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.
It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.
But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.
Iranians gather ahead of Ashura
We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.
Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.
Men and women weeped as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.
There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
‘I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him,’ one woman tells Sky News
A woman was dismissive about the US president.
“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani said it would be a mistake for Israel to attack again
But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.
For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
World
Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says
Two American security workers in Gaza were injured after grenades were thrown during food distribution in Khan Younis, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said.
In a statement, the US and Israeli-backed aid group said a targeted terrorist attack was carried out at one of its sites in southern Gaza on Saturday morning.
The two Americans injured “are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition,” it said, adding that the delivery of aid was “otherwise successful” and that “no local aid workers or civilians were harmed”.
GHF didn’t say exactly when the incident happened but claimed Hamas was behind the attack, adding: “GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food.
“Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.”
Later, the aid group posted a picture on social media, which it said showed “fragments of a grenade packed with ball bearings” that was used in the attack.
Asked by Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, whether the two injured individuals were responsible for handing out aid or were responsible for providing security, GHF said they were “American security workers” and “two American veterans.”
The aid group did not provide specific evidence that Hamas was behind the attack.
The US and Israeli-backed group has been primarily responsible for aid distribution since Israel lifted its 11-week blockade of the Gaza Strip in May.
Read more:
Hamas gives ‘positive’ response to ceasefire proposal
Outcry as Israeli strike hits school
94 killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza, health staff say
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
It comes after Sky News analysis showed GHF aid distributions are associated with a significant increase in deaths in Gaza.
According to Gaza’s health ministry, 600 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid from GHF sites as of 3 July, which charities and the UN have branded “death traps”.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press has reported that Israeli-backed American contractors guarding GHF aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades.
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Contractors allege colleagues ‘fired on Palestinians’
GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it investigated AP’s allegations and found them to be “categorically false”.
Israel’s military added that it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm.
It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.
Hamas has said it has “submitted its positive response” to the latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza to mediators.
The proposal for a 60-day ceasefire was presented by US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing hard for a deal to end the fighting in Gaza, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to visit the White House next week to discuss a deal.
Mr Trump said Israel had agreed to his proposed ceasefire terms, and he urged Hamas to accept the deal as well.
Hamas’ “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defence Forces inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.
But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”
A woman cries after her son was killed while on his way to an aid distribution centre. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Hamas said it is “fully prepared to immediately enter into a round of negotiations regarding the mechanism for implementing this framework” without elaborating on what needed to be worked out in the proposal’s implementation.
The US said during the ceasefire it would “work with all parties to end the war”.
A Hamas official said on condition of anonymity that the truce could start as early as next week.
An Israeli army tank advances in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel. Pic: AP/Leo Correa
But he added that talks were needed first to establish how many Palestinian prisoners would be released in return for each freed Israeli hostage and to specify the amount of humanitarian aid that will be allowed to enter Gaza during the ceasefire.
He said negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in return for the release of the remaining hostages would start on the first day of the truce.
Hamas has been seeking guarantees that the 60-day ceasefire would lead to a total end to the nearly 21-month-old war, which caused previous rounds of negotiations to fail as Mr Netanyahu has insisted that Israel would continue fighting in Gaza to ensure the destruction of Hamas.
The Hamas official said that Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.
Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, Mr Trump welcomed Hamas’s “positive spirit” to the proposal, adding that there could be a ceasefire deal by next week.
Palestinians dispersing away from tear gas fired at an aid distribution site in Gaza. Pic: AP
A girl mourns the loss of her father, who was killed while heading to an aid distribution hub. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Hamas also said it wants more aid to flow through the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies, which comes as the UN human rights officer said it recorded 613 Palestinians killed in Gaza within a month while trying to obtain aid.
Most of them were said to have been killed while trying to reach food distribution points by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
The spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, Ravina Shamdasani, said the agency was not able to attribute responsibility for the killings, but added that “it is clear that the Israeli military has shelled and shot at Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points” operated by GHF.
Read more:
The man in the room acting as backchannel for Hamas in negotiations with US
GHF reacts to claims US contractors fired at Palestinians
Deaths in Gaza rise significantly when GHF distributes aid
Palestinians carry aid packages near the GHF distribution centre in Khan Younis. Pic: AP/Abdel Kareem Hana
Ms Shamdasani said that of the total tallied, 509 killings were “GHF-related”, meaning at or near its distribution sites.
The GHF accused the UN of taking its casualty figures “directly from the Hamas-controlled Gaza health ministry” and of trying “to falsely smear our effort”, which echoed statements to Sky News by the executive director of GHF, Johnnie Moore.
Mr Moore called the UN figures a “disinformation campaign” that is “meant to shut down our efforts” in the Gaza Strip.
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