Analysts see short-term strength, long-term ‘generational shift’ in copper prices
Sheets of copper cathode are pictured at BHP Billiton’s Escondida, the world’s biggest copper mine, in Antofagasta, northern Chile March 31, 2008.
Ivan Alvarado | Reuters
Along with experiencing a short-term supply shortage, copper is set to undergo a “generational shift” in demand as decarbonization ramps up, according to BNY Mellon Lead Portfolio Manager Al Chu.
Copper is a leading barometer of global economic health due to its wide-ranging usage, including in electrical equipment and industrial machinery — it had a strong start to the year, given a weakening dollar and investor expectations to see a surge in demand after the reopening of the Chinese economy.
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Short-term supply issues have also emerged alongside a rebound in demand, such as an eruption of protests in Peru, which accounts for 10% of the world’s copper supply.
Copper futures for March delivery settled at $4.1055 per pound on Thursday, after tailing off in recent weeks from the January rally.
Copper prices enjoyed a strong start to 2023 on hopes of resurgent Chinese demand as the economy reopened, but economic uncertainty has since returned.
Although he noted that a Chinese economic reopening and resurgent demand while copper inventories are near cyclical lows would likely lead to a short-term price surge, Chu suggested that the most interesting aspect of the copper outlook is a “secular change” in long-term demand:
“Copper typically is used as a construction metal for wiring for building, wiring for machinery and what not, but if we look at the decarbonization net zero energy transition trend, copper is the new oil,” Chu, who manages the BNY Mellon Natural Resources fund, told CNBC.
“Is it solar power, is it wind, is it EVs, is it any form of renewable energy? Every renewable energy pretty much needs copper, because if you’re talking about electrifying something and transmitting electricity, you need copper.”
Beyond the quantities of copper that are likely to be required to achieve net-zero goals, Chu also highlighted a decline in the grade of the metal over the last 20 years, as well as the length of time it takes to get major mining projects online.
“A lot of these reserves and deposits are found in very, very hard places to produce – Congo, Inner Mongolia – these are not in very developed regions where you say ‘oh it’s really easy, let’s build a mega-mine’,” he said.
“When you look at the long-term secular story, you can just see strong demand. A lot of people focus on lithium as the kind of energy transition metal, but I think we should be much more focused on copper, because I think that is the real pinch point, the real choke point for the energy transition story.”
Citing the old economic adage of “the best cure for high prices is high prices,” Chu said there will always be short-term cyclical volatility, but that the price of copper will likely keep rising until it incentivises much larger exploration cycles or a ramp-up of secondary markets and copper recycling.
“But there’s only so much those markets can do because the incremental demand from renewables isn’t a small bump up in demand, it’s almost a multiyear tsunami of demand coming through that we’re not thinking about, so it’s going to be all hands on deck but absolutely, the price has to go up,” Chu said.
‘Enormous political capital’
Chu’s comments were partly echoed in a Tuesday note from Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, who said industrial metals such as copper, aluminum and lithium would undoubtedly benefit from the “enormous political capital” being invested in achieving the “green transformation.”
“In addition, the new geopolitical environment will mean a massive boost for the European defence industry which should see double-digit growth rates close to 20 percent per year over the next economic cycle as the European continent doubles its military spending in percentage of GDP,” Hansen said.
Speculation has also abounded that Beijing — as the world’s top consumer — will ramp up its fiscal support to the economy on a scale similar to that seen in 2003 after its entry to the WTO, in 2009 after the global financial crisis, and following the 2016 currency devaluation.
Hansen suggested that the strong start to the year was primarily driven by “technical and speculative traders frontrunning an expected pickup in demand from China in the coming months.”
“Once the initial rally is over, the hard work begins to support those gains, with an underlying rise in physical demand needed to sustain the rally, not least considering the prospect of increased supply in 2023 as several projects go live,” he said.
“Overall we see copper settle into a USD3.75 to USD4.75 range during the coming months before eventually breaking higher to reach a new record sometime during the second half.”
Copper stocks carrying ‘scarcity value’
After benefiting from the climb in copper prices in January, valuations of copper mining stocks appear “stretched,” according to Morgan Stanley.
The Wall Street giant believes sentiment and supply risks could carry the sector higher in the short term, suggesting a “scarcity value” is driving capital towards miners.
“With global equity capital chasing a shrinking investable copper universe, investors appear willing to overlook operational disappointments,” Morgan Stanley metals and mining analysts said in a research note outlining the sector’s “scarcity value.”
“Outlook updates have been negative across the board as 1) unit costs came in 12% higher on average and up 7% y/y; 2) capex was 8% above expectations; and 3) volume guidance missed by 4%. As investors pursue copper exposure, we note rising valuation premiums.”
Although reluctant to call the peak just yet, as supply risks in Peru and elsewhere keep the market tight and push exposed equities higher in the near term, Morgan Stanley only sees aggregate upside of 6% to 12% using spot/bull price projections.
Chevy is resurrecting both the Spark and EUV nameplates with the all-new, affordable Chevy Spark EUV. GM hopes its new, 249-mile range EV will be a “game changer” that helps accelerate the company’s EV transition in export markets.
There’s an old saying that goes, “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” And to that end it seems that GM’s Chevy brand has figured out a way to put China’s electric technology lead to work in their favor, rebadging the Baojun Yep Plus SUV built by the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint venture.
Meet the all-new 2026 Chevy Spark EUV – a compact, Bronco-lookin’ four-door crossover that’s ready to take South America, Africa, and the Middle East by storm.
Big style, tiny package
Like its Baojun-badged siblings, the new MY2026 Chevrolet Spark EUV is powered by a single 75 kW (101 hp), 180 Nm (130 lb-ft) motor driving the front wheels. Power comes from the Baojun’s 42 kWh LFP battery that, with regenerative braking, is good for up to 360 km (220 miles) on the NEDC driving cycle.
The new Spark is also equipped with a 10.1″ infotainment screen and 8.8″ digital instrument cluster. Interestingly, the Spark EUV ships with support for both Apple CarPlay and Android Auto standard – two technologies that GM claim lead to “unsafe” driver in North America.
Built to turn heads and spark excitement, the 2026 Chevrolet Spark EUV debuts in the ACTIV trim, boasting a bold, boxy exterior, a sleek two-tone roof, and sporty 16” wheels. Compact yet spacious, it’s the perfect everyday runner, offering seamless balance of practicality, driving dynamics and personality.
And for those who love to stand out, the Spark EUV offers six vibrant color options, including Sea Blue with a Polar White roof, Track Yellow, Tiger Blue, Gentle Gray with a Star Twinkle Black roof, and Milky Tea. But personalization doesn’t stop there – drivers can further customize their Spark EUV with exclusive accessories like Ground Effects for the front and rear, Side Moldings, Assist Steps, and Side and Rear Storage Boxes.
Whether you’re an adventurer, gaming enthusiast, music lover, sports fan or someone who enjoys pop culture, a range of unique accessories and themes ensures your Spark EUV stands out and feels uniquely yours.
“The Chevrolet Spark EUV is the coolest and most attainable vehicle in its segment – and is positioned to drive EV adoption in the Middle East,” explains Jack Uppal, General Motors Africa and Middle East President and Managing Director. “Not only is it fun to drive, but the Chevrolet Spark EUV also offers customers the chance to personalize their vehicle with a variety of customization options, making it uniquely their own.”
In addition to basically re-using R&D and tooling budgets from the Baojun brand, the 2026 Chevy Spark EUV keeps its price low with relatively low EV tech. The charging, for example, tops out at “just” 50 kW – a far cry from the 300-plus kW from Tesla, let alone the 480 kW from some of the cutting-edge Chinese brands.
The 2026 Chevrolet Spark EUV will be available in UAE, KSA, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Lebanon, Iraq, Oman, and Egypt later this Summer. No official word on pricing.
Electrek’s Take
I know this is an overseas model with almost no chance of coming to the US – and that’s our loss. A practical, fun, affordable EV like this could do huge numbers if it was priced right. And with the Baojun Yep starting at less than $12,000 US in China, I can’t imagine a sub-20K MSRP would be entirely out of the question.
SOURCE | IMAGES: GM.
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The 2025 US Electric Vehicle Experience (EVX) Ownership Study from J.D. Power tells us that more people are more satisfied with their EV experience than last year – and the EV owners who are the most satisfied with their rides can be found behind the wheel of the BMW iX.
Now in its fifth year, the J.D. Power U.S. Electric Vehicle Experience (EVX) Ownership Study focuses on the the first year of vehicle ownership. The overall EVX ownership index is a 1000-point score that measures EV owner satisfaction in both premium and mass market segments across 10 factors. Those being (in alphabetical order):
- accuracy of stated battery range
- availability of public charging stations
- battery range
- cost of ownership
- driving enjoyment
- ease of charging at home
- interior and exterior styling
- safety and technology features
- service experience
- vehicle quality and reliability
And, for the second year in a row, a BMW has taken the top two spots in J.D. Power’s survey, slotting just ahead of the Rivian R1T and R1S models (the leaders in 2023). In the mass-market BEV segment, BMW’s MINI sub-brand also performed well.
The reason BMW is consistently pulling ahead? It seems to come down to education. “First-time EV buyers are receiving minimal education or training,” explains Brent Gruber, executive director of the EV practice at J.D. Power. “Dealer and manufacturer representatives play the crucial role of front-line educators, but when it comes to EVs, the specific education needed to shorten the learning curve just isn’t happening often enough. The shortfall in buyer education is something we’re seeing with all brands.”
For their part, BMW and MINI do a great job with consumer education – and the company’s Genius program (cunning cribbed from Apple’s Genius Bar playbook) is the best in the car business. With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine this going down any other way.
Bigger trends in the EV space
After a decline in BEV owners’ overall satisfaction results in 2024, J.D. Power reports that owners of both premium and mass market battery electric EVs are expressing a change of sentiment this year. Part of that is better education, another part is more mainstream awareness of EV charging basics, but most of that is the overall growth and improvement of America’s publicly accessible DC fast charging network.
Among mass market BEV owners, satisfaction is up 86 points year over year (396) as infrastructure buildout continues and brands benefit from the opening of the Tesla Supercharger network. Satisfaction with public charger availability is highest among owners of premium BEVs (551).
These results should come as no surprise to Electrek readers and Quick Charge listeners. We covered a Paren study late last year that showed a nearly 50% increase in DC fast charging sessions YOY over Thanksgiving weekend. In that study, the company’s proprietary EV charger reliability index was up 3.4% compared to last year, reaching 85.5% and signaling an improving charging experience overall for EV drivers.
Another big EV trend covered in J.D. Power’s survey is the market’s permanence. EVs have staying power, in other words, with the vast, sweeping majority of first-time EV buyers indicating that they’re not going back to ICE.
verall, 94% of BEV owners are likely to consider purchasing another BEV for their next vehicle, a rate that is also matched by first-time buyers. Manufacturers should take note of the strong consumer commitment to EVs as the high rate of repurchase intent offers the ability to generate brand loyal customers if the experience is a positive one. In fact, during the past several years, the BEV repurchase intent percentage has fluctuated very little, ranging between 94-97%. This year’s study also finds that only 12% of BEV owners are likely to consider replacing their EV with an internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered vehicle during their next purchase.
“With five years of conducting this study and surveying thousands of EV owners, it’s apparent that once consumers enter the EV fold, they’re highly likely to remain committed to the technology,” Gruber adds.
J.D. Power reports that BEVs reached a market share of 9.1% in 2024, up from 8.4% in 2023. That’s in line with Cox Automotive’s numbers, which led that company to predict that 1 of every 4 new cars sold in the US (cleverly sidestepping the truck segment) would be battery-powered in 2025.
You can check out the results of the J.D. Power surveys, below, then let us know what you think of these results in the comments.
EVs with most satisfied owners
SOURCE | IMAGES: J.D. Power; BMW.
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Dutch charge point operators Fastned have opened their first DC fast-charging station with up to 400 kW chargers in Italy, marking the eighth nation the company has built stations in.
Fastned’s new EV charging location was built into the existing Truck Park Brescia Est service plaxa on the busy A4 motorway roughly between Milan and Venice. The A4 is a major traffic artery in the northern part of Italy, but that’s not the only reason the site was chosen.
Fastned says that the majority of electric vehicles registered in the boot-shaped nation are located in the northernmost regions of the country of the country. More specifically, the new charging facility is located roughly halfway between Bergamo and Verona, while the A4 continues west to Lake Lugano and Lake Como or and east to Lago di Garda.
The facility offers four Alpitronic-built HYC400 Hyperchargers, DC fast charging stations with a massive, 400 kW output – quite a bit more than what even the newest Tesla EVs can make use of, but still significantly slower than either the megawatt charging some battery electric semi trucks or the latest 6C luxury cars from China can make use of.
The new Fastned charge park was originally set to open in 2024, but wasn’t officially commissioned by the Italian motorway operator A4 Holding Group until this week.
Electrek’s Take
You might be asking yourself why I’m writing about a new charging station in Europe when I usually write about big trucks and tractors. The answer is simple: I read “Truck Park Brescia Est” and assumed this was a truck stop. By the time I figured it out I’d already written about three quarters of the article, and rather than throw it away I decided to use it as yet another opportunity to point out that Tesla is a step or three behind the latest charging tech from China.
I also re-posted an episode of Quick Charge on this same topic (above). Enjoy!
SOURCE | IMAGES: Fastned, via Electrive.
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