Analysts see short-term strength, long-term ‘generational shift’ in copper prices
Sheets of copper cathode are pictured at BHP Billiton’s Escondida, the world’s biggest copper mine, in Antofagasta, northern Chile March 31, 2008.
Ivan Alvarado | Reuters
Along with experiencing a short-term supply shortage, copper is set to undergo a “generational shift” in demand as decarbonization ramps up, according to BNY Mellon Lead Portfolio Manager Al Chu.
Copper is a leading barometer of global economic health due to its wide-ranging usage, including in electrical equipment and industrial machinery — it had a strong start to the year, given a weakening dollar and investor expectations to see a surge in demand after the reopening of the Chinese economy.
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Short-term supply issues have also emerged alongside a rebound in demand, such as an eruption of protests in Peru, which accounts for 10% of the world’s copper supply.
Copper futures for March delivery settled at $4.1055 per pound on Thursday, after tailing off in recent weeks from the January rally.
Copper prices enjoyed a strong start to 2023 on hopes of resurgent Chinese demand as the economy reopened, but economic uncertainty has since returned.
Although he noted that a Chinese economic reopening and resurgent demand while copper inventories are near cyclical lows would likely lead to a short-term price surge, Chu suggested that the most interesting aspect of the copper outlook is a “secular change” in long-term demand:
“Copper typically is used as a construction metal for wiring for building, wiring for machinery and what not, but if we look at the decarbonization net zero energy transition trend, copper is the new oil,” Chu, who manages the BNY Mellon Natural Resources fund, told CNBC.
“Is it solar power, is it wind, is it EVs, is it any form of renewable energy? Every renewable energy pretty much needs copper, because if you’re talking about electrifying something and transmitting electricity, you need copper.”
Beyond the quantities of copper that are likely to be required to achieve net-zero goals, Chu also highlighted a decline in the grade of the metal over the last 20 years, as well as the length of time it takes to get major mining projects online.
“A lot of these reserves and deposits are found in very, very hard places to produce – Congo, Inner Mongolia – these are not in very developed regions where you say ‘oh it’s really easy, let’s build a mega-mine’,” he said.
“When you look at the long-term secular story, you can just see strong demand. A lot of people focus on lithium as the kind of energy transition metal, but I think we should be much more focused on copper, because I think that is the real pinch point, the real choke point for the energy transition story.”
Citing the old economic adage of “the best cure for high prices is high prices,” Chu said there will always be short-term cyclical volatility, but that the price of copper will likely keep rising until it incentivises much larger exploration cycles or a ramp-up of secondary markets and copper recycling.
“But there’s only so much those markets can do because the incremental demand from renewables isn’t a small bump up in demand, it’s almost a multiyear tsunami of demand coming through that we’re not thinking about, so it’s going to be all hands on deck but absolutely, the price has to go up,” Chu said.
‘Enormous political capital’
Chu’s comments were partly echoed in a Tuesday note from Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, who said industrial metals such as copper, aluminum and lithium would undoubtedly benefit from the “enormous political capital” being invested in achieving the “green transformation.”
“In addition, the new geopolitical environment will mean a massive boost for the European defence industry which should see double-digit growth rates close to 20 percent per year over the next economic cycle as the European continent doubles its military spending in percentage of GDP,” Hansen said.
Speculation has also abounded that Beijing — as the world’s top consumer — will ramp up its fiscal support to the economy on a scale similar to that seen in 2003 after its entry to the WTO, in 2009 after the global financial crisis, and following the 2016 currency devaluation.
Hansen suggested that the strong start to the year was primarily driven by “technical and speculative traders frontrunning an expected pickup in demand from China in the coming months.”
“Once the initial rally is over, the hard work begins to support those gains, with an underlying rise in physical demand needed to sustain the rally, not least considering the prospect of increased supply in 2023 as several projects go live,” he said.
“Overall we see copper settle into a USD3.75 to USD4.75 range during the coming months before eventually breaking higher to reach a new record sometime during the second half.”
Copper stocks carrying ‘scarcity value’
After benefiting from the climb in copper prices in January, valuations of copper mining stocks appear “stretched,” according to Morgan Stanley.
The Wall Street giant believes sentiment and supply risks could carry the sector higher in the short term, suggesting a “scarcity value” is driving capital towards miners.
“With global equity capital chasing a shrinking investable copper universe, investors appear willing to overlook operational disappointments,” Morgan Stanley metals and mining analysts said in a research note outlining the sector’s “scarcity value.”
“Outlook updates have been negative across the board as 1) unit costs came in 12% higher on average and up 7% y/y; 2) capex was 8% above expectations; and 3) volume guidance missed by 4%. As investors pursue copper exposure, we note rising valuation premiums.”
Although reluctant to call the peak just yet, as supply risks in Peru and elsewhere keep the market tight and push exposed equities higher in the near term, Morgan Stanley only sees aggregate upside of 6% to 12% using spot/bull price projections.
Trump’s Interior Department halted construction on 704 megawatt (MW) Revolution Wind, the US’s first multi-state offshore wind project that’s already 80% complete. Grid operator ISO New England says the decision is a threat to the grid.
ISO New England released a statement responding to the stop-work order, warning that “delaying the project will increase risks to reliability.”:
As demand for electricity grows, New England must maintain and add to its energy infrastructure. Unpredictable risks and threats to resources – regardless of technology – that have made significant capital investments, secured necessary permits, and are close to completion will stifle future investments, increase costs to consumers, and undermine the power grid’s reliability and the region’s economy now and in the future.
Revolution Wind, a joint development between Ørsted and BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, is a 65-turbine project capable of powering around 350,000 homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut once it’s complete. It was expected to come online next year. The project has created more than 1,200 jobs.
On August 22, the director of Bureau of Ocean Energy Management sent a vague letter to Ørsted commanding it to halt all activities on the fully permitted Revolution Wind, citing “national security interests,” yet providing no details.
BOEM’s Record of Decision for Revolution Wind, reported in 2023 in Section 4.6, page 185, states that the national security effects of the project would be “negligible and avoidable.”
This latest move echoes Trump’s cancellation in April of New York’s $5 billion Empire Wind 1 project, which was already under construction off New York’s coast. No viable reasons were given for that stop-work order either, and the cancellation was reversed in May.
Kit Kennedy, managing director for power at Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), released the following statement in response to the Revolution Wind order:
The Trump administration’s war on the electricity needed to power the grid continues on all fronts. Halting Revolution Wind is a devastating attack on workers, on electricity customers, and on the investment climate in the US.
New England homeowners will feel this when they tear open their electricity bills and look at the surging costs of keeping the lights on.
This administration has it exactly backwards. It’s trying to prop up clunky, polluting coal plants while doing all it can to halt the fastest growing energy sources of the future – solar and wind power.
It makes no sense to say we have an energy emergency and then make decisions like this. Unfortunately, every American is paying the price for these misguided actions.
Read more: Trump reversal revives Empire Wind, NY’s offshore energy giant
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Tesla is teasing a new product release on Friday, August 29th, coming to Europe and the Middle East. It’s likely going to be the Model Y Performance.
On X today, Tesla has teased an upcoming product release coming this friday.
The post is cryptic. It only mentions ‘spoiler alert’ and the date August 29 with what looks like a close up of a vehicle with what appears to be a spoil – hence the “spoiler alert” reference:
There are main suspect is the Model Y Performance due to the spoiler reference.
Since the Model Y refresh in January, Tesla stopped selling the Model Y Performance. It is due to launch the top performance version under the new design.
When Tesla released the Model 3 refresh in 2024, it took about 4 months for Tesla to launch the new performance version.
Electrek’s Take
The only thing that I find strange with this likely being the Model Y Performance is the fact that they tweeted this from the Europe and Middle East account.
It would be strange for the Model Y Performance to launch there first, but who knows. Maybe Tesla started production at Gigafactory Berlin first.
I don’t think this will have a major impact on Tesla’s business. The Model Y Performance is the least popular version of the best-selling Model Y.
We don’t have the full mix of sales, but I wouldn’t be suprised if it represents less than 10% of Tesla’s Model Y deliveries.
The Model 3 Performance is probably a more popular option within the Model 3 lineup as it is a lot more fun to drive.
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![Genesis GV60 Magma EV sheds camo, revealing a radical new look [Video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/08/Genesis-GV60-Magma-EV-2.jpeg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
The GV60 Magma will have a distinct look and feel compared to other Genesis vehicles. As the first EV from its new performance sub-brand, the Genesis GV60 Magma will debut with enhanced power, advanced suspension, a sporty new design, and more. For the first time, it was caught on video racing around the Nürburgring, giving us our closest look yet.
Genesis GV60 Magma EV flexes new style at Nürburgring
We got our first look at the new Magma models last March at the NY Auto Show alongside the full-size Neolun concept.
Magma is “the brand’s expansion into the realm of high-performance vehicles,” Genesis boasted. Among the first vehicles to earn a Magma upgrade is the GV60.
Genesis fine-tuned the electric crossover SUV, giving it a wider and lower stance for improved control. The larger lower air intake contributes to the aggressive new look, while also serving to cool the batteries and motor, both of which have been upgraded for enhanced performance.
Earlier this year, we got a good look at the GV60 Magma during winter testing in Europe. Although you could see a few new design features, it was mostly covered in camo.
After it was recently spotted with less camo at the Nürburgring race track in Germany, we are getting an even better idea of what to expect when it arrives.
The video from CarSpyMedia shows the Genesis GV60 Magma EV with a production body and minimal camouflage.
You can see the high-performance vehicle flexing its power and handling as it rips around the track. Like other Hyundai Motor performance EVs, including the new IONIQ 6 N, you can expect the Genesis GV60 Magma to deliver over 600 horsepower, if not closer to 700.
The current Genesis GV60 Performance delivers up to 429 horsepower and 516 lb-ft of torque, good for a 0 to 60 mph sprint in 3.7 seconds.
| Horsepower | 0 to 60 mph (seconds) |
Starting Price | |
| Genesis GV60 Performance | 429 | 3.7 | $69,900 |
| Genesis GV60 Magma | ? | ? | ? |
| Porsche Taycan | 402 | 4.5 | $99,400 |
| Porsche Taycan Turbo GT (with Weissach Package) |
1,092 | 2.1 | $230,000 |
| Tesla Model S Plaid | 1,020 | 1.99 | $89,990 |
Genesis will launch the GV60 Magma EV later this year in Korea, followed by the US, Europe, and other global markets. We will learn prices and final specs closer to launch, but given the Performance models start at $69,900, you can expect a higher starting price tag, likely closer to $75,000.
At that it would be significantly less than the Porsche Taycan Turbo and Tesla Model S Plaid. Will it match the performance?
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