Chelyabinsk meteor: Ten years on from ‘wake-up call’, how safe are we from a potentially catastrophic strike?
It wasn’t quite the day the Earth stood still, but those who witnessed a fiery asteroid briefly outshine the sun as it soared towards the Russian city of Chelyabinsk will almost certainly never forget it.
Comparable to the size of a house and travelling at a scintillating 11 miles per second, what was quickly dubbed the Chelyabinsk meteor arrived unannounced in a manner reminiscent of a science-fiction disaster film. It was an unnerving spectacle.
Dashcam footage from the morning of 15 February 2013, in the central Russian city close to the Ural Mountains, shows the small asteroid entering the Earth’s atmosphere before it exploded with 30 times more force than the US atom bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in the Second World War.
Windows shattered, buildings were damaged, and hundreds of people were injured – but Chelyabinsk got lucky.
“Had it been directly over the city, the damage would have been worse,” warns NASA‘s planetary defence officer Lindley Johnson. “It was definitely a wake-up call.”
‘We’ve never seen anything like it since’
Working with partners like the European Space Agency, Mr Johnson’s department warns of any impacts to Earth by comets and asteroids and guides the response.
A standard test case was a “shooting star” asteroid that soared above the English Channel this week, which was tracked and publicised in advance, so people could see it for themselves.
Chelyabinsk was no standard test case.
“We’ve never seen anything like it since we started working in this area,” says Mr Johnson, whose office inside the US space agency was only established in 2016.
“It was daylight, clearly visible in the daytime sky, and that doesn’t happen very often.
“It came in on the daylight side of Earth, and we had no chance of being able to detect it ahead of time with the ground-based observatories that we used to find these objects at that time.”
The point of impact of the meteor
What are the chances of another Chelyabinsk?
Mr Johnson was in Vienna, Austria, on the day of Chelyabinsk’s arrival, attending meetings of UN members of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space.
It didn’t take long for recommendations on how to protect the Earth from such events to be endorsed, including an international asteroid warning network.
Professor Alan Fitzsimmons, of Queen’s University, Belfast, is an expert in these so-called near-Earth objects, and a committed member of the “planetary defence community”.
“We’re very open about what we find and our current state of knowledge about potential impact risks,” he says. “All asteroids that are detected are announced on public websites.
“Technology has come a long way in terms of how well you can detect asteroids, even as small as Chelyabinsk, but there’s still the chance that one could sneak through. And it’s quite likely that the next significant asteroid we have would be unannounced.”
The shockwave damaged buildings and smashed windows
Fragments of the meteor were collected
How are we protecting ourselves?
Chelyabinsk was considered a small asteroid – that and its arrival during daylight is why it was hard to see coming.
“We’re still vulnerable to those that are coming from the sun,” admits Mr Johnson.
“Most of these objects come from a main belt of asteroids out between Mars and Jupiter, and when they’re coming inbound into the inner solar system, we can find them in the night sky. But when they loop around the sun and come back out, that’s when we’re vulnerable.”
The key to being able to expect the unexpected, he says, is space-based observation.
NASA is working on the $1.2bn (£985m) Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor for launch in 2028, which will be the first space telescope specifically designed to hunt asteroids and comets that may be potential hazards to Earth.
Even then, Chelyabinsk was far smaller than the asteroids NEO will focus on. Amy Mainzer, NEO Surveyor’s principal investigator, says it will prioritise “finding the one asteroid that could cause a really bad day for a lot of people”.
Also in the repertoire is the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart) spacecraft. During testing last year, it was deliberately crashed into an asteroid and successfully altered its orbit.
An illustration of NASA’s DART spacecraft on a collision course with the asteroid Dimorphos. Pic: NASA/Johns Hopkins APL
What if another one gets through?
Chelyabinsk’s arrival showcased the importance of quick and effective communication – its arrival was rapidly documented around the world, Russian scientists shared their findings, fragments have been collected, studied, and found new homes, and the event informed international policy.
Prof Fitzsimmons says such transparency and coordination would again be vital, perhaps even more so in an age where misinformation can quickly spread.
Were such an asteroid to break through the atmosphere today, over a populated area, it would do so in a far more fragile geopolitical climate than back in 2013, with Russia’s war in Ukraine and an escalating US-China row over the perceived threat of flying objects.
“When these kinds of events are determined to be of natural causes, the flow of information is pretty good even in today’s environment,” says Mr Johnson. “But there certainly is concern in knowing quickly that it’s a natural event versus something that’s human caused.
“The entry and detonation of these objects by the heat pressure in the atmosphere, to the human eye, can look very much like an attack, whereas sophisticated instrumentation rapidly discerns the difference.”
Not a war zone, but the trail of Chelyabinsk’s meteor
‘A long way to go to find them all’
At the moment, there are some 31,000 asteroids being tracked – up from around 9,500 in 2013.
It’s a sign of how much more seriously the prospect of a dangerous impact has been taken since Chelyabinsk, which was the largest and best recorded asteroid impact on Earth since 1908. That was when an asteroid exploded over Siberia, flattening some 80 million trees in a blast equivalent to 15 million tons of dynamite.
Not being near a built-up area was again incredibly fortunate.
Russia’s sheer size is all that’s made it a relative hotbed of historic asteroid activity. With 70% of the Earth being covered by water, odds are that most asteroids – detected or not – end up in the ocean. An impact like Chelyabinsk is probably a once-in-a-century event, reckons NASA.
None of the 31,000 asteroids we know of are predicted to hit Earth in the next 100 years, says Prof Fitzsimmons, but there’s still “a long way to go to find them all”.
“But I’ll reassure you – I still come into work and pay into my pension plan.”
World
‘Sixteen killed’ in strike on Gaza hospital as Israel says it hit ‘Hamas command centre below’
At least 16 people have been killed and 70 others were injured at a hospital in Gaza following an Israeli strike, according to the health ministry.
Nine missiles hit the European Hospital and its courtyard in the south of the Palestinian territory, officials said.
Israel said it had hit a “Hamas command centre” beneath the hospital in Khan Younis.
Hamas denies exploiting hospitals and civilian properties for military purposes.
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The scene after the European Hospital was partially damaged following Israeli airstrikes. Pic: Reuters
Earlier, a well-known Palestinian photojournalist died following a separate attack on the Nasser Hospital, also in Khan Younis, said the ministry.
Hassan Aslih had been accused by Israel of working with Hamas and was recovering from an earlier airstrike.
Aslih, who has hundreds of thousands of followers on social media, was said by the Israelis to have recorded and uploaded footage of “looting, arson and murder” during Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack into Israel that triggered the war in Gaza.
Aslih was one of two patients who died in Tuesday’s strike on Nasser Hospital, said the health ministry. Several others were wounded.
Mourners carry the body of Palestinian journalist Hassan Aslih. Pic: Reuters
Dozens of people were being treated on the third floor of the hospital building, where the missiles struck, Reuters said, quoting Ahmed Siyyam, a member of Gaza’s emergency services.
The Israeli military said it “eliminated significant Hamas terrorists” in Nasser Hospital, among them Aslih, who it said had “operated under the guise of a journalist”.
Footage showed heavy damage to one of the hospital buildings, including to medical equipment and beds inside.
At least 160 journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the war, according to the International Federation of Journalists.
Gazan officials accuse Israel of deliberately targeting journalists. Israel denies this and says it tries to avoid harm to civilians.
Aslih, who headed the Alam24 news outlet and had previously worked with Western news outlets, was recovering after being wounded last month in a deadly strike on a tent in the Nasser Hospital compound.
Read more:
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Meanwhile, President Trump has spoken on the phone to Edan Alexander after he was released by Hamas on Monday, as part of ongoing efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire with Israel.
The 21-year-old was believed to be the last living American hostage in Gaza.
Some 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage in the 7 October attack on southern Israel, according to Israeli figures.
Israel’s response has killed more than 52,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and destroyed much of the coastal territory. Gaza’s health ministry records do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
An aid blockade since March has left the population at critical risk of famine, according to the World Health Organisation, which warned on Tuesday that hunger and malnutrition could have a lasting impact on “an entire generation”.
Donald Trump has said the US will lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and signed a $600bn (£450bn) deal with Saudi Arabia as he visited the nation as part of a tour of the Middle East.
The US president revealed the US plans to lift sanctions on Syria following talks with Saudi Arabia‘s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Mr Trump was speaking at the US-Saudi investment conference during a four-day trip to the region.
Analysis: US-Saudi relationship feels tighter than ever as Trump signs flurry of deals
The comments follow Air Force One being escorted by Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s as it approached the kingdom’s capital, with Mr Trump welcomed by the crown prince, Saudi’s de facto ruler, as he stepped off the plane.
President Trump said the relationship between the were nations were “stronger and more powerful than ever before”, adding it would “remain that way”.
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How Trump’s Saudi visit unfolded
‘Largest defence cooperation agreement’
Mr Trump and Prince Mohammed signed several agreements aimed at increasing cooperation between their governments, including a commitment to $600bn in new Saudi investment in the US – though Mr Trump said a trillion dollars (£750bn) would be even better.
The US also agreed to sell Saudi Arabia an arms package worth nearly $142bn (£107bn), which the White House called “the largest defence cooperation agreement” Washington has ever done.
Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provide an honorary escort for Air Force One. Pic: AP
In his speech, President Trump also urged Iran to take a “new and a much better path” and make a new nuclear deal with the US.
Speaking at the conference, Mr Trump said he wants to avoid a conflict with Iran but warned of “maximum pressure” if his olive branch was rejected.
Pic: AP
“As I have shown repeatedly, I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be profound,” he said.
“If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch… we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure, drive Iranian oil exports to zero.”
He added: “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. But with that said, Iran can have a much brighter future, but we’ll never allow America and its allies to be threatened with terrorism or nuclear attack. The choice is theirs to make.”
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Pic: Reuters
Normalising relations with Syria
Mr Trump said he would ease US sanctions on Syria and move to normalise relations with its new government ahead of a meeting with its new leader Ahmad al Sharaa on Wednesday.
The Syrian president was formerly an insurgent who led the overthrow of former leader Bashar al Assad last year.
Mr Trump said he wants to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed. I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”
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The US leader also said he hoped Saudi Arabia would soon join the Abraham Accords and recognise Israel “in your own time”.
Saudi Arabia has argued its recognition of Israel would be tied to the establishment of a Palestinian state along the lines of Israel’s 1967 borders.
Mr Trump will travel to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates over the next three days.
In today’s Saudi Arabia, convention centres resemble palaces.
The King Abdul Aziz International Conference Centre was built in 1999 but inside it feels like Versailles.
Some might call it kitsch, but it’s a startling reflection of how far this country has come – the growth of a nation from desert bedouins to a vastly wealthy regional powerbroker in just one generation.
Trump latest: President signs huge arms deal with Saudi Arabia
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Trump signs deal with Saudi Arabia
At a bar overnight, over mocktails and a shisha, I listened to one young Saudi man tell me how his family had watched this transformation.
His father, now in his 60s, had lived the change – a child born in a desert tent, an upbringing in a dusty town, his 30s as a mujahideen fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan, his 40s in a deeply conservative Riyadh and now his 60s watching, wide-eyed, the change supercharged in recent years.
The last few years’ acceleration of change is best reflected in the social transformation. Women, unveiled, can now drive. Here, make no mistake, that’s a profound leap forward.
Through a ‘western’ lens, there’s a way to go – homosexuality is illegal here. That, and the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, are no longer openly discussed here.
Bluntly, political and economic expedience have moved world leaders and business leaders beyond all that.
Read more:
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Trump visit is ‘about opulence’
The guest list of delegates at the convention centre for the Saudi-US Investment Forum reads like a who’s who of America’s best business brains.
Signing a flurry of different deals worth about $600bn (£451bn) of inward investment from Saudi to the US – which actually only represent intentions or ‘memorandums of understanding’ at this stage – the White House said: “The deals… represent a new golden era of partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
“From day one, President Trump‘s America First Trade and Investment Policy has put the American economy, the American worker, and our national security first.”
Pic: AP
That’s the answer when curious voters in faraway America wonder what this is all about.
With opulence and extravagance, this is about a two-way investment and opportunity.
There are defence deals – the largest defence sales agreement in history, at nearly $142bn (£106bn) – tech deals, and energy deals.
Underlying it all is the expectation of diplomatic cooperation, investment to further the geopolitical strategies for both countries on key global challenges.
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Trump says US will end sanctions on Syria
In the convention centre’s gold-clad corridors, outside the plenary hall, there are reminders of the history of this relationship.
There is a ‘gallery of memories’ – the American presidents with the Saudi kings – stretching back to the historic 1945 meeting between Franklin D Roosevelt and King Saud on board the USS Quincy. That laid the foundation for the relationship we now see.
Curiously, the only president missing is Barack Obama. Sources suggested to me that this was a ‘mistake’. A convenient one, maybe.
It’s no secret that the US-Saudi relationship was at its most strained during his presidency. Obama’s absence would give Trump a chuckle.
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From Monday: Why does Saudi Arabia love Trump?
Today, the relationship feels tighter than ever. There is a mutual respect between the president and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – Trump chose Saudi Arabia as his first foreign trip in his last presidency, and he’s done so again.
But there are differences this time. Both men are more powerful, more self-assured, and of course the region has changed.
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There are huge challenges like Gaza, but the two men see big opportunities too. A deal with Iran, a new Syria, and Gulf countries that are global players.
It’s money, money, money here in Riyadh. Will that translate to a better, more prosperous and peaceful world? That’s the question.
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