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The college football offseason is painfully long, and over the course of the 7.5 months between the national title game and Week 0, we can talk ourselves into quite a bit. The first time a potential Alabama starting quarterback throws an interception in spring ball, we’ll convince ourselves that Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are due for a genuine setback. By August, we’ll decide they’re as loaded as ever.

Here’s where the advanced stats can help us a decent amount. While outliers happen every year based on injuries, close games and the whims of 18- to 22-year-olds and a pointy football, a solid projections system can help us define the most likely range of outcomes for teams.

With 2023 recruiting in the rearview mirror, transfer portal movement quiet for now and my initial SP+ projections released into the wild, now’s as good a time as any to set some standards for the teams conventional wisdom tells us will have the highest standards this fall. For each of the teams in Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25, plus a select few others, let’s use SP+ to establish ceilings and floors, and let’s talk about the single biggest variable affecting which one they gravitate toward. (Hint: If they have a new starting quarterback, that’s probably the biggest variable.)

Now, we have to be careful in how we set the parameters. SP+ gives Auburn a 0.01% chance of going 12-0 at the moment, but does that mean the Tigers’ ceiling is 12-0? Sure, technically, but we’re going to keep things more realistic: The ceilings and floors listed below basically come from the middle 80% of the projections. I lopped off the extreme projections — Georgia with a 0.2% chance of going 7-5! Michigan with a 0.1% chance of going 6-6! Temple with a 0.1% chance of going 11-1! Nebraska with a 0.02% chance of going 12-0! — and looked only at the projections landing between the 10% and 90% ranges.

Because I’m tamping down the outliers, you’ll quickly find that most teams have a range of either three or four wins between their respective ceilings and floors. But this exercise does a solid job of separating teams into tiers of expectations. Only three teams start out with a 12-0 ceiling. Everyone else is going to need some breaks to get there.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Ceiling: 12-0 | Floor: 9-3
Initial SP+ rank: 1 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 62%

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Badgers QB Edwards exits with lower-body injury

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Badgers QB Edwards exits with lower-body injury

Wisconsin starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., a transfer from Maryland, was ruled out of Thursday’s 17-0 home win over Miami (Ohio) after leaving in the first half because of a lower-body injury.

Edwards was injured on a noncontact play in the second quarter after he handed off the ball and then started running. His left leg buckled and he fell to the turf. Edwards, 6-foot-3, 228 pounds, went into Wisconsin’s injury tent before walking to the locker room.

He was not in uniform on the Badgers’ sideline during the second half, and was replaced by Danny O’Neil, a transfer from San Diego State.

When asked about Edwards’ status after the game, Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell told the Big Ten Network: “Don’t know anything as of now, but he’s out here with us. That’s a good sign.”

Wisconsin made a significant offseason push for Edwards, who started 11 games for Maryland last fall and finished second in the Big Ten in passing yards average (261.9 ypg) and fourth in completions (273). He earned 2023 Music City Bowl MVP honors in leading Maryland to a win over Auburn.

Edwards began his college career at Wake Forest before transferring to Maryland in 2022.

In 2024, the Badgers lost quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, a transfer from Miami, because of a torn ACL against Alabama in Week 3.

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LSU’s Haulcy to serve first-half ban for ’24 fight

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LSU's Haulcy to serve first-half ban for '24 fight

LSU starting safety A.J. Haulcy will be suspended for the first half of Saturday’s game at No. 4 Clemson, the NCAA told ESPN on Thursday.

Haulcy, who transferred to LSU in May and was considered one of the top defensive players available in the portal, was suspended for a fight in his final regular-season game last year while playing for Houston.

The news came as a surprise to No. 9 LSU, as team officials were not informed of the suspension until Wednesday, sources told ESPN. The suspension leaves LSU without a key member of its secondary in a road game against Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, one of the country’s top quarterbacks.

Haulcy was ejected for his role in a fracas late in Houston’s 30-18 loss to BYU in November.

A few factors might have led to some of the ambiguity and confusion around the suspension. Haulcy was initially ejected for unsportsmanlike conduct, a penalty that wouldn’t generally yield a suspension. However, officials clarified after the game that Haulcy was ejected for fighting, which does result in a suspension.

Houston’s coaching staff was made aware of the classification of his ejection and the first-half suspension in December 2024 in a formal letter from the NCAA. According to sources, Haulcy says he was not informed.

Haulcy’s transfer to LSU in May also appears to have caused some communication issues on the suspension, though NCAA rules are clear that a suspension follows a player after a transfer and there is no appeal process.

Clemson finished No. 15 in the country in pass offense last season and returns Klubnik and a majority of its offensive weapons. LSU’s secondary was a weak spot last year, as the Tigers finished No. 76 nationally in pass defense.

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Source: 5-star Keys flips from LSU to Tennessee

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Source: 5-star Keys flips from LSU to Tennessee

Five-star pass catcher Tristen Keys, ESPN’s No. 2 wide receiver in the 2026 class, flipped his commitment from LSU to Tennessee on Thursday afternoon, a source told ESPN.

Keys, who is 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds, is the No. 10 prospect in the 2026 ESPN 300. He is the second-ranked member of the Vols’ 2026 class, trailing only five-star quarterback Faizon Brandon, ESPN’s No. 8 recruit this cycle.

Keys, who is from Hattiesburg, Mississippi, had verbally committed to the Tigers since March 19. However, he maintained an open recruitment throughout the summer, speaking with multiple programs during official visits to Auburn, Miami, Tennessee and Texas A&M. With Keys’ flip, LSU has lost a five-star wide receiver pledge in consecutive cycles, after Dakorien Moore‘s decommitment in 2025.

Keys headlines a stacked pass-catching class that the Vols are building around Brandon, ESPN’s No. 3 pocket passer prospect. Keys joins Salesi Moa (No. 35 overall), Tyreek King (No. 52) and Joel Wyatt (No. 66) as the program’s fourth top-100 wide receiver pledge in 2026. Tennessee ranked 15th in ESPN’s class rankings for the cycle prior to Keys’ flip.

Keys caught 58 passes for 1,275 yards and 14 touchdowns in his junior season last fall, guiding Hattiesburg (Miss.) High School to Mississippi’s 6A state title game. He later participated in the Under Armour All-America Game and the Polynesian Bowl earlier this year.

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