Bitcoin has had a strong start to the year with the cryptocurrency seeing a huge rally.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Crypto markets rose on Thursday, shrugging off a tougher regulatory stance from the U.S. government.
Bitcoin gained 4.07% to $24,984.27 at around 11:56 a.m. ET while ether was up 3.84% at $1,723.04, according to Coin Metrics.
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There are ” increasing signs that the market bottomed last November and has turned bullish,” Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at crypto exchange Luno, told CNBC.
“We are gaining in momentum here and any bad news is being shrugged off, typical signs that the market believes the worst is over.”
Crypto markets were on edge earlier this week following increased regulatory scrutiny from U.S. authorities on digital currencies.
On Monday, the New York State Department of Financial Services told Paxos to stop minting new Binance USD, or BUSD, stablecoins. A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency pegged to a real-world asset and some are backed by assets such as bonds or cash. BUSD is pegged one-to-one to the U.S. dollar.
Paxos also confirmed that the Securities and Exchange Commission has notified the company that the agency could recommend an action that alleges BUSD is a security. The SEC has not yet formally levelled any charges against Paxos.
Flows into bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price on Thursday sat at its highest level since mid-August 2022. Last year, nearly $1.4 trillion was wiped off the crypto market after turmoil which saw bankruptcies, failures of projects and companies. All that was topped off by the collapse of major exchange FTX.
Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at Japanese crypto firm Bitcoin Bank, said there is a shift from so-called altcoins, or alternative coins, to bitcoin in the wake of the regulatory action.
“Wednesday’s crypto rally was a bit of a surprise but one thing stood out: it was led by bitcoin,” Hasegawa told CNBC.
“The current regulatory environment surely looks like a headwind for the crypto market, but it seems like some money is moving from altcoins to bitcoin, since bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that is labeled ‘commodity’ by the SEC chair. Consequently, bitcoin’s market dominance is on the rise.”
Gary Gensler, chair of the SEC, reiterated last year that the agency views bitcoin as a commodity rather than a security. Commodities are assets like gold whereas stocks are considered securities. They are regulated differently.
Rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve designed to fight inflation also weighed on crypto markets. Bitcoin is also closely correlated to equity markets and in particular the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. The Nasdaq is up about 16% year-to-date. Bitcoin has outperformed the index and is up 49% this year.
Bullish sentiment in risk assets has been aided by a view that the economic downturn might not be as bad as expected, and the Fed might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.
“In general, the markets like the fact that inflation is coming down, interest rate hikes are slated to ease from here, but also that we may end up with either no big recession or something very mild,” Ayyar said.
A pedestrian walks past Amazon Ireland corporate offices in Dublin, as Amazon.com, Inc., said on Tuesday it plans to cut its global corporate workforce by as many as 14,000 roles and seize the opportunity provided by artificial intelligence (AI), in Dublin, Ireland, Oct. 28, 2025.
Damien Eagers | Reuters
A new bipartisan bill seeks to provide a “clear picture” of how artificial intelligence is affecting the American workforce.
Sens. Mark Warner, D-Va., and Josh Hawley, R-Mo., on Wednesday announced the AI-Related Job Impacts Clarity Act. It would require publicly traded companies, certain private companies and federal agencies to submit quarterly reports to the Department of Labor detailing any job losses, new hires, reduced hiring or other significant changes to their workforce as a result of AI.
The data would then be compiled by the Department of Labor into a publicly available report.
“This bipartisan legislation will finally give us a clear picture of AI’s impact on the workforce,” Warner said in a statement. “Armed with this information, we can make sure AI drives opportunity instead of leaving workers behind.”
The proposed legislation comes as politicians, labor advocates and some executives have sounded the alarm in recent years about the potential for widespread job loss due to AI.
In May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said that the AI tools that his company and others are building could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and cause unemployment to spike up to 20% in the next one to five years. Anthropic makes the chatbot Claude.
Layoffs have been announced recently at companies across the tech, retail, auto and shipping industries, with executives citing myriad reasons, from AI and tariffs to shifting business priorities and broader cost-cutting efforts. Job cuts announced at Amazon, UPS and Target last month totaled more than 60,000 roles.
Some experts have questioned whether AI is fully to blame for the layoffs, noting that companies could be using the technology as cover for concerns about the economy, business missteps or cost cutting initiatives.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc., arrives at the Tesla plant in Gruenheide, Germany, on March 13, 2024.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Tesla sold just 750 electric vehicles in Germany for October 2025, less than half of what it sold a year ago, according to data out Wednesday from the country’s federal transport authority, known as KBA.
In October last year, Tesla sold 1,607 EVs in Germany.
KBA data shows 434,627 new battery electric vehicles year to date, the KBA data said, up nearly 40% from the same period last year. Of those EVs, 15,595 were Teslas, a decline of 50% for Elon Musk‘s automaker this year.
Tesla operates a massive vehicle assembly plant in Brandenburg, Germany, which is outside of Berlin, but the company is not a hometown favorite.
Musk’s incendiary political rhetoric and endorsement of AfD, Germany’s extremist, anti-immigrant party, have weighed on left-leaning consumers’ interest in the Tesla brand there.
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Tesla also faces a passel of European and Chinese competitors throughout Europe offering smaller and more affordable EVs, many priced below 35,000 euros.
During October, Tesla began selling a new, lower-cost version of its Model Y SUV in Germany. The stripped-down version of the SUV was priced at 39,990 euros for the German market — about 5,000 euros lower than the cheapest, previously available versions of the Model Y there.
It remains to be seen whether Tesla’s new, lower-priced model variants can help revitalize demand for their EVs in Germany or Europe.
Policy changes ahead may lift EV sales in Germany, overall.
Germany scrapped incentives to boost purchases of fully electric vehicles about two years ago, a policy change that led to a sharp drop in demand for fully electric vehicles, initially. The country is now poised to start up a new EV incentive program that goes into effect in January 2026, and is intended to help lower- and middle-income buyers adopt zero tailpipe emission vehicles.
Sam Altman, chief executive officer of OpenAI Inc., during a media tour of the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
With OpenAI’s recent release of its AI browser, the historic level of capital expenditures being made in the current AI arms race may accelerate even further, if that is possible.
From the reciprocal, and some have said circular, nature of hundreds of billions in commitments in investment, tied to future chip purchases, to the extent to which GDP growth is reliant on this boom, some have said this is a bubble. A Harvard economist estimates 92% of US GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was due to investment in AI.
But much more needs to be understood about the connection between the breakneck investment in AI and the business models that underpins the entire economy: the advertising technology (Ad Tech) industrial complex.
For the past 25 years the infrastructure of the internet has been engineered to extract advertising revenue. Search Engine Marketing, the advertising business model at the core of Google, is perhaps the greatest business model of all time. Meta’s advertising business, based on engagement and attribution, is a close second. And right behind both of these is Amazon’s advertising business, powered by its position as the largest online retailer. While a smaller portion of Amazon‘s topline, its highly profitable advertising business makes up a disproportionate percentage of Amazon’s profits. So much so that nearly every major retailer has spun up their own version of retail media networks, all driving significantly to the bottom lines and market capitalization of massive companies like Walmart, Kroger, Uber (and UberEats), Doordash and many more.
In fact, these platforms have been using AI to refine their advertising business models for years, in the form of algorithmic models that powered their search and recommendation engines, and to increase engagement and better predict purchase decision, seeking an ever-greater share of all commerce, not just what is typically thought of as “advertising.” These three multi-trillion-dollar market cap companies either wholly, or substantially, derive their profits from advertising. And now they are using some portion of those historically profitable advertising revenues to fuel infrastructure investments at a level the world has not seen outside of War Time spending by governments.
But at the same time, the latest wave of AI has the potential to disrupt the very same trillions in market cap that is fueling it. AI will, without question, change how people search (Google), shop (Amazon) and are entertained (Meta). Answers delivered without clicking around the web. AI-assisted shopping. Infinite personalized content creation.
If AI represents such a potential existential risk, why are Google, Meta and Amazon such a huge part of the current arms race to invest in AI? The “moonshot” outcome of would be that achieving Artificial General Intelligence, or Super Intelligence, AI that can do anything a human can, but better, would unlock so much value that it would dwarf any investment.
But there is more immediate urgency to protect, or disrupt, the advertising business model fueling the trillions in market cap and hundreds of billions of current investment, before someone else does. While the seminal paper that launched this phase of AI, “Attention is All You Need” was written by mostly Google researchers, it was OpenAI and Microsoft, and now Grok as well, that launched the current AI arms race. And they are not remotely as dependent on the current advertising industrial complex. In fact, Sam Altman has called the feeds of the major platforms using AI to maximize advertising dollars, “the first at-scale misaligned AIs.” He is clearly stating which businesses he believes OpenAI is trying to disrupt.
What comes next?
This time is different, but it also comes with different risks. The major difference with the current fever in infrastructure investment vs the dotcom bubble of 2000, is that in large part the companies funding it are among the most profitable companies in the world. And so far, there has not been indications of cracks in the business model of advertising that is both funding their investments, and their market capitalizations (along with so many massive companies people wouldn’t think about being in the advertising business).
But if AI does disrupt, or even break, the current advertising model, the shock to the economy and markets would be far greater than most could imagine.
Google, Meta and Amazon are still best positioned to create new business models, and as mentioned, have been using AI for far longer to support their advertising business models with great success.
However, fundamentally changing the way people interface with search, commerce and content online will require just that, entirely new revenue models, maybe, hopefully, some that are aligned, that are not advertising based. But whatever the model, perhaps it is helpful to consider that the justification in AI infrastructure spending may not be to just unlock new revenue, but to protect the business models that make up a much more significant portion of the market capitalization of public companies than most people are aware.